National Economy

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Acajack

First Nations never called or considered themselves Canadie/an.

At its foundations the ethnonym Canadie/an is a European construct designating the French-descended inhabitants of the St Lawrence River valley.

As as person primarily of Acadien origins, it technically doesn't even apply to me even if I am francophone.

Ethnonyms expand their usage over time. When we refer to French we refer more than the Germanic frankish tribes, when we refer to English we refer to more than the Germanic angle tribes.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Ethnonyms expand their usage over time. When we refer to French we refer more than the Germanic frankish tribes, when we refer to English we refer to more than the Germanic angle tribes.

I am aware of that. That's why I qualified with "original" in my post that started this digression.

[craner]

Oil execs at World Petroleum Congress see global demand growing, not falling

http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/alberta/oil-execs-at-world-petroleum-congress-see-global-demand-growing-not-falling-7560828

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by craner

Oil execs at World Petroleum Congress see global demand growing, not falling

http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/alberta/oil-execs-at-world-petroleum-congress-see-global-demand-growing-not-falling-7560828

I wonder what a horse breeder would have said in 1905 if asked about the forecast for his business ....

[svlt]

We've got a lot more data and information than horse breeders or most forecasters did 120 years ago though. Oil is here to stay for some time whether we want it to or not.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by svlt

We've got a lot more data and information than horse breeders or most forecasters did 120 years ago though. Oil is here to stay for some time whether we want it to or not.

I agree that oil is with us for a long time. From agriculture to mining to plastics to clothing.............it's future, for at LEAST 50 years is secure.

That said, it's general downward trajectory is unstoppable especially for transportation and electrical production. In 10 years the vast majority of cars will be electric and ditto for home heating and by 2050 you will be able to add air travel to that via, primarily, hydrogen. That means the prices will fall or at best stabilize as the cost of production soars with inflation. In other words, only the cheapest of oil production will be profitable and offshore and oilsands definitely don't qualify. Alberta companies will still be able to sell their oil but not at a profit so they will begin to shut down.

This will also happen to natural gas although at a much slower pace but by 2070 or so, it too will become unprofitable as hydrogen and battery technologies become cheaper and far more advanced. This won't happen with NG as the costs are rising while demand will decline. Carbon capture to make it zero emissions will further add to it's cost and hence it becomes uncompetitive.

Another thing against oil & NG is how people will perceive them as something bad bordering on barbaric. People's attitudes change and with us already seeing the consequences of climate change, their demands for zero emissions will only increase.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I wonder what a horse breeder would have said in 1905 if asked about the forecast for his business ....

It took decades after 1905 for horses to be phased out though, even as it became obvious that would happen eventually in richer countries. If you google horse vs. car charts for the US, there were a lot of horses even in the 1930's and 40's and if you widened that to include places like India then I would expect the transition took much longer (are they still using animal power in a lot of rural areas of India instead of tractors?). 2050 is not very far off in energy transition terms.

Right now I think it's a correct criticism to say that many Western countries are inflicting self-harm trying to achieve additional GHG emissions cuts while the bulk of the world is still transitioning onto rather than away from fossil fuels. If this is to be fixed it'll be through technological progress, not government incentives.

Probably what will happen is the world will muddle through. Technology will advance a lot, there will be a moderate amount of warming, and it will cause net harm but be outweighed by adaptation and overall economic growth. There won't be grand global coordination where Canada-style policies are implemented everywhere.

[ssiguy]

On another note, Trudeau announced a $650 gift to the Ukraine today for armored vehicles and they will be built in London. Is there any city in the country that's been getting more
Ottawa largess dropped on it than London?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

It took decades after 1905 for horses to be phased out though, even as it became obvious that would happen eventually in richer countries. If you google horse vs. car charts for the US, there were a lot of horses even in the 1930's and 40's and if you widened that to include places like India then I would expect the transition took much longer (are they still using animal power in a lot of rural areas of India instead of tractors?). 2050 is not very far off in energy transition terms.

Right now I think it's a correct criticism to say that many Western countries are inflicting self-harm trying to achieve additional GHG emissions cuts while the bulk of the world is still transitioning onto rather than away from fossil fuels. If this is to be fixed it'll be through technological progress, not government incentives.

Probably what will happen is the world will muddle through. Technology will advance a lot, there will be a moderate amount of warming, and it will cause net harm but be outweighed by adaptation and overall economic growth. There won't be grand global coordination where Canada-style policies are implemented everywhere.

The truth that nobody ever says.

[casper]

Originally Posted by craner

Oil execs at World Petroleum Congress see global demand growing, not falling

http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/alberta/oil-execs-at-world-petroleum-congress-see-global-demand-growing-not-falling-7560828

You don't say. The executives from some of the world largest oil companies have convinced themselves that world demand for oil will continue to go up.

Article starts off by saying WTI is the highest it has been since last winter. Should we be surprised by that? Russia is becoming less relevant and Saudi Arabia is restricting supply to increase the price in the market.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by svlt

We've got a lot more data and information than horse breeders or most forecasters did 120 years ago though. Oil is here to stay for some time whether we want it to or not.

That oil will be used for a while, is not being questioned. Their projections are being questioned.

They absolutely reject peak oil demand. That's an interesting bet. There's a reason for that. And it's absolutely based on politics and not statistical reality. What do you think happens to the economics of oil, the minute peak oil demand is confirmed? How long do you think OPEC solidarity lasts after that moment? Oil can keep flowing and still be an unprofitable or declining sector. That's the secret they don't want to discuss.

By the way, Bloomberg's analysts say peak oil this decade (by 2027), with EVs displacing 20 Mbpd of demand by 2040:

Oil consumption displaced by EVs rises to over 20 million barrels per day by 2040, according to BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, which models a market-led energy transition that assumes no policy changes. That is more oil than the US consumed last year.

Demand for road fuels peaks at 49 million barrels per day in 2027. “From then on, demand begins to decline structurally, reaching 35 million barrels per day by 2040,” BNEF said in its most recent outlook.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric...eyll-slash-it/

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

On another note, Trudeau announced a $650 gift to the Ukraine today for armored vehicles and they will be built in London. Is there any city in the country that's been getting more
Ottawa largess dropped on it than London?

It’s not a gift, it is an investment in destroying Russia’s ability to bother anyone for a generation.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

On another note, Trudeau announced a $650 gift to the Ukraine today for armored vehicles and they will be built in London. Is there any city in the country that's been getting more
Ottawa largess dropped on it than London?

Who's complainin'?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Who's complainin'?

All my army buddies who are pissed at the apparent greed of GDLS. Just found out that the reason we aren't sending more vehicles to Ukraine is because of how incompetent GDLS has been at ramping. It was supposed to take a year to replace the 39 ACSVs that were reallocated from the Canadian Army to Ukraine. Will now take 2 years. And while our army wants the ACSVs and Ukraine wants the IFV versions, GDLS is dragging its feet on certifying a version for Ukraine. There's a prevailing anger among the brass that GDLS is exploiting Ukraine aid for their profits rather than helping the cause. Might be better off sending that money to Roshel for more Senators. At least they hired skilled Ukrainian refugees to ramp production.

This is why when folks like YOWetal talk about how defence production might be more economically beneficial that making EVs, people like me roll our eyes. Unfortunately, the defence industrial base is filled with companies that know the government is obligated to sustain them and know they can exploit this relationship.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

All my army buddies who are pissed at the apparent greed of GDLS. Just found out that the reason we aren't sending more vehicles to Ukraine is because of how incompetent GDLS has been at ramping. It was supposed to take a year to replace the 39 ACSVs that were reallocated from the Canadian Army to Ukraine. Will now take 2 years. And while our army wants the ACSVs and Ukraine wants the IFV versions, GDLS is dragging its feet on certifying a version for Ukraine. There's a prevailing anger among the brass that GDLS is exploiting Ukraine aid for their profits rather than helping the cause. Might be better off sending that money to Roshel for more Senators. At least they hired skilled Ukrainian refugees to ramp production.

This is why when folks like YOWetal talk about how defence production might be more economically beneficial that making EVs, people like me roll our eyes. Unfortunately, the defence industrial base is filled with companies that know the government is obligated to sustain them and know they can exploit this relationship.

That plant runs a single shift but is designed to run up to three shifts, subject to ramping up the supply chain. They just need people to do that. I don't know where they are on staffing. I would image getting welders is not easy. Welding ballistic steel is not exactly the skill set for the average worker off the street. I don't know why they would be dragging their feet.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

That plant runs a single shift but is designed to run up to three shifts, subject to ramping up the supply chain. They just need people to do that. I don't know where they are on staffing. I would image getting welders is not easy. Welding ballistic steel is not exactly the skill set for the average worker off the street. I don't know why they would be dragging their feet.

Weird how Roshel can do it and a multinational like GD can't.

[Innsertnamehere]

I remember seeing a historic photo of downtown Toronto in the early 1950’s and there was still a horse drawn carriage. They apparently didn’t really disappear entirely in the western world until the 1960’s as a practical form of transportation.

Gas powered cars will be similar, we will see them on the road for decades still, even though they will become progressively rarer and rarer. With the average age of vehicles these days, even if we hit the vast majority of new vehicles as EVs in the early 2030’s there will be many gas vehicles on the road well into the 2040’s and 2050’s.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It’s not a gift, it is an investment in destroying Russia’s ability to bother anyone for a generation.

Fair enough. Perhaps "gift" was a poor choice of words.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I remember seeing a historic photo of downtown Toronto in the early 1950’s and there was still a horse drawn carriage. They apparently didn’t really disappear entirely in the western world until the 1960’s as a practical form of transportation.

Gas powered cars will be similar, we will see them on the road for decades still, even though they will become progressively rarer and rarer. With the average age of vehicles these days, even if we hit the vast majority of new vehicles as EVs in the early 2030’s there will be many gas vehicles on the road well into the 2040’s and 2050’s.

Again, we don't need to see gas cars completely gone for the economics of oil to change. The current cartel controlled pricing only works in an environment where demand is constantly growing. The minute demand growth ends, the cartel falls apart.

The oil CEOs all have rosey forecasts that are betting on India choking with gas powered SUVs and the debugging world all taking vacations on long haul flights and wrapping everything in plastic. That's how they look past the rise of EVs. Reality is probably not going to work out like that.

[someone123]

If the cartel falls apart and oil prices collapse this will tend to keep gas-powered cars around longer. The production cost per barrel of oil in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is in the $10 US range; they could sell lots of oil for decades at $20 per barrel. It is true that exploration and development would slow in more expensive areas like Alberta.

I think we would see electric cars displace gas cars faster around the world if they had some killer advantages and were cheap to buy. They are not really there yet, but maybe it'll happen eventually. When cars replaced horses they were considerably more powerful and convenient. A similar jump is something like a 1,000 km range robo-taxi that recharges in 3 minutes and costs $25,000. There's generally little reason to operate an old gas-powered car if that alternative exists.