DENVER | Main Development Thread #6

[bunt_q]

$900 psf construction cost? That's absolutely absurd. Not at all relevant for what we're seeing in Denver, where we're still building half our apartment buildings with re-shapen plastic backyard pools from walmart and bags of quickrete from home depot. (Not Holland's projects, true.)

[mhays]

The $900/sf was a misquote. I assume they meant sale prices, not development cost. And certainly not construction cost.

In another article (same publication, May 14), the Luma people said they need to average over $750/sf in sale prices. I won't comment on the construction cost though I'm marketing guy for the contractor, but that's obviously a much smaller number. Further, the condo prices don't factor parking (a 1.0 ratio in this case), hallways, or common areas.

[bcp]

speaking of which...Clark is the builder - this rendering looked new to me?


Clark Const.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

$900 psf construction cost? That's absolutely absurd. Not at all relevant for what we're seeing in Denver, where we're still building half our apartment buildings with re-shapen plastic backyard pools from walmart and bags of quickrete from home depot. (Not Holland's projects, true.)

LoL. Just saw new drawings for a major Denver developer for a series of duplicate builds at undisclosed locations in RiNO, LoHI and Union Station.

I do like the diversity of colors and the use of ornamental features such as stars and hearts.


https://artcitytoronto.files.wordpress.c...101874659864595_1185412_1295032854_o.jpg

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

$900 psf construction cost? That's absolutely absurd. Not at all relevant for what we're seeing in Denver, where we're still building half our apartment buildings with re-shapen plastic backyard pools from walmart and bags of quickrete from home depot. (Not Holland's projects, true.)

Although different ballgame, this gives some credence for why Hines would proceed with 1144 15th Street. They've owned the land for many years, materials and labor costs remain muted and I assume with the drop off in oil drilling that labor availability is improving. The oil & gas activity it seems is no more than some temporary indigestion for downtown.

[wong21fr]

The Census released the 2014 annual population estimate today and Denver added over 15,000 people year over year which is an increase of 2.4%. Denver accounted for 28% of the population growth in the Denver-Aurora MSA.

Oh, and Denver County is again the largest county in Colorado by population.

[CastleScott]

^ Wow, I wonder if the ole metro is now near 3.1 million. Oh hey guys has the overly wet weather really slowed down local construction lately??

Scott

[PLANSIT]

We've had county numbers for awhile now.

Originally Posted by rds70

Denver County population July 1, 2014 - 663,862, an increase of 15,461 or 2.38% over the previous year.

Denver CSA population July 1, 2014 - 3,345,261, an increase of 67,952 or 2.07% over the previous year.

CSA increase since 2010 - 254,387

Denver is once again the largest county in Colorado by 343 people! Take that El Paso County.

March 25th


MSA is listed at 2,754,258. So maybe by 2019 or 2020.

[PLANSIT]

Could this mean Colorado Center Tower III (~230 ft) is about to rise?

Project Title
2015D00218 - 1970 S Colorado Blvd - Colorado Center - Comprehensive Sign Plan


Site Address
1970 S Colorado Blvd


Application Status
Application Submission Date:
Zoning Application Date:
Estimated Application Review Date:


BID Log Number:
Zoning Log Number: 2015D00218

Source: Tryba Architects

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

We've had county numbers for awhile now.



March 25th


MSA is listed at 2,754,258. So maybe by 2019 or 2020.

So Denver might be sitting at 700-720 by the 2020 census and the MSA at 3,000,000.

What's "peak Denver" population look like? Could it ever go to 1 million? Absent some metro consolidations, doesn't seem likely, given the shrinking amount of development space.

On this last point, though unlikely to happen any time soon, what actually does make sense is for Denver and Aurora to consolidate. Aurora is the most "big city" of the Denver 'burbs and, as they say in business, there could be a lot of synergies in that consolidation.

For now, neither city would likely support it as both consider themselves superior to the other. As long it you didn't also consolidate school districts (no reason to) someday it might be feasible.

[PLANSIT]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

So Denver might be sitting at 700-720 by the 2020 census and the MSA at 3,000,000.

What's "peak Denver" population look like? Could it ever go to 1 million? Absent some metro consolidations, doesn't seem likely, given the shrinking amount of development space.

On this last point, though unlikely to happen any time soon, what actually does make sense is for Denver and Aurora to consolidate. Aurora is the most "big city" of the Denver 'burbs and, as they say in business, there could be a lot of synergies in that consolidation.

For now, neither city would likely support it as both consider themselves superior to the other. As long it you didn't also consolidate school districts (no reason to) someday it might be feasible.

State Demographer thinks Denver can hit ~730k by 2020. Seems feasible if growth trend continues. But if we can't build enough housing, not as many people will be able to afford to live here.

Re: Peak population. I don't know. It really depends on community pushback regarding growth and densification. As Stapleton, Lowry, and GVR reach full buildout, our only opportunity lies in infill and vertical density.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

For now, neither city would likely support it as both consider themselves superior to the other. As long it you didn't also consolidate school districts (no reason to) someday it might be feasible.

The counties are the issue. For this to happen, you'd have to win three elections - constitutionally, it would require approval of the voters in Adams, Arapahoe, and Douglas Counties. And depending on how it was structured, I am sure also Denver (if it's more than a routine annexation) and Aurora (dissolution, basically), particularly since there'd also be financial ramifications. So, likely five elections.

You'd also need state legislation to address the school districts issues. Merging the utilities would require water court cases galore, physical changes to infrastructure. Incompatible fire equipment. Different employee pay structures. Court and criminal justice systems would presumably have to adjust. I could go on and on. It'd be a multi-billion dollar endeavor.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

So, likely five elections.

So you'd have to spend a whole business week just voting.

I was thinking of the letter 'E' which might be more doable: Edgewater or Englewood. Or maybe Glendale or Wheatridge.

[SLCdude]

Off-topic, but I visited Denver over the weekend to visit CU Denver. I'm looking into the Master of Urban and Regional Planning (MURP) program there with an emphasis in transportation. I love the building location, and the school seems like a good fit for me. Along with CU Denver, my other top choice at the moment is Portland State.


Here are my impressions of Denver:

The views from Amtrak descending into the valley are incredible!

Denver did a great job with the Union Station. SLC blew that opportunity by turning the Union Pacific Station into the Gateway Mall, which is no longer cool despite opening 15 years ago.

I was blown away by all the development going on, especially in LoDo. My parents are from Denver and hardly recognize the place.

The 16th Street Mall is great! I didn't ride a shuttle because I had so much fun just walking. I didn't know about the Free MetroRide until my visit.

I rode a B-Cycle all over. It was easy to navigate, although I'm not used to one-way streets. I felt safe biking downtown, especially in protected bike lanes and along the Cherry Creek.

I'm excited for all the commuter rail coming soon!

[TakeFive]

SLCdude... My son who lives in Phoenix visited Portland State several months ago. Sounds like you've picked two very good alternatives.

For its size, the SLC area has done an unbelievable job with transit. Denver seems to be more like SLC than Portland although that's not likely important.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

SLCdude... My son who lives in Phoenix visited Portland State several months ago. Sounds like you've picked two very good alternatives.

For its size, the SLC area has done an unbelievable job with transit. Denver seems to be more like SLC than Portland although that's not likely important.

I disagree, for somebody looking to learn transportation and get into transportation, I think there's more opportunity in Denver than in Portland. I can't speak to the programs themselves, though, I'll let Ken address that.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

The Census released the 2014 annual population estimate today and Denver added over 15,000 people year over year which is an increase of 2.4%. Denver accounted for 28% of the population growth in the Denver-Aurora MSA.

Oh, and Denver County is again the largest county in Colorado by population.

Oh, and as reported by Mark Harden, Denver Business Journal, Denver is now considered the 21st largest city, up one place and just ahead of DC. Woot Woot.

[wong21fr]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but the Country Club Towers II's groundbreaking has been announced for May 29th:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/r...er-story-broes-controversialcountry.html

If this occurs and 1144 Fifteenth breaks ground in May we'll soon have four 30-plus story buildings U/C in Denver. We should also be looking forward to the Le Meridien/AC Hotel later this summer.

[PLANSIT]

^ Nice!

So, from my earlier prediction post in December, most of these are coming to fruition this year:

Looking forward to 2015, LIKELY construction 'starts' (including late 2014 starts) should include:

1 Building total > 600 FT (1144)
5 Buildings total > 300 FT (1144, Confluence, 1401, Country Club I, Country Club II)
9 Buildings total > 200 FT (1144, Confluence, 1401, Country Club I, Country Club II, Skyhouse, Dual Brand2, Colorado Center 3, One Belleview)
15+ Buildings total > 100 FT (1144, Confluence, 1401, Country Club I, Country Club II, Skyhouse, Dual Brand2, Colorado Center 3, One Belleview, Eviva, 17W, Alexan Uptown, Block A, 245 Columbine (iffy), Alexan CC, a few others in DUS)

It's probably time to do another list for second half of 2015.

[Scottk]

I know we discussed this before, but will the country club towers be the tallest buildings outside of downtown Denver, or will the hyatt place near glendale still be the tallest?