Homicide stats in Canadian Cities

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by 240glt

Second of two police shootings resulting in death in the last several days in Edmonton. I see Calgary had one as well. Wonder what’s causing this all of a sudden ?

Edmonton 1: victim shot at police (as per ASIRT)
Edmonton 2: victim was holding and beating a woman for several days. victim had left and returned when the police were on scene investigating complaints on a house. Survivor is the woman apparently.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The lowest income cities and regions in Canada tend to concentrated in certain parts of Quebec and the Atlantic region, and almost all of them tend to have extremely low violent crime rates.

Obviously the higher violent crime rates tend to correlate with places that have high concentrations of young males from minorities with problems integrating society on a socio-economic level: typically indigenous youth on the Prairies and in the North, and black youths of various origins in places like Toronto and Ottawa.

There - I said it.

You can resume the dance now.

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim

Incredible numbers for Vancouver and Surrey. Together it's 25 murders for a million people.

Meanwhile it's 18 murders for Montreal island (2 million).

Wtf is going on?

Places like Toronto and Vancouver plus including areas like Brampton and Surrey have a very disproportionately high rate of murders according to parts of their black and South Asian communities, but talk of those rates according to ethnicity is often frowned upon.

On The Prairies, a lot is mentioned about Prairies murder rate & ethnicity is almost always mentioned.
Saskatchewan does have one of the lowest non-aboriginal murder rates in Canada, lower than provinces like Quebec and New Brunswick, Sask had 8 murders total in 2017 for 1 & a quarter million population.
That said, a city like Saskatoon's entire murder number is still similar to a same-sized city as Halifax that has less of an ethnic lopsided murder rate.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t003a-eng.htm

[someone123]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

That said, a city like Saskatoon's entire murder number is still similar to a same-sized city as Halifax that has less of an ethnic lopsided murder rate.

Halifax city was about 400,000 in 2016 while Saskatoon was around 250,000. If the two cities had the same number of murders, that translates into a > 50% higher murder rate in Saskatoon.

[ssiguy]

There are certainly some ethnic groups that have higher murder rates than the average such as blacks and Indo-Canadians but Natives stand far and above any of them. Natives are generally shunned by Canadian society and much of that is because Canadians associate Natives with crime just as Americans do with their black population.

I am not going to be hypocritical and holier-than-thou here as I freely admit by anti-Native bias. I know it is wrong, based on stereotypes, and is unfair but that does n`t change the way I feel. If I walked into an unknown bar and saw it was full of Natives I would quickly turn around and leave. If I had the option to buy a house at the same price but one was decent on the edge of a town while one was fantastic just a few km away but right beside a Native Reserve I would choose the lesser house near town. I can honestly also say i would not discriminate interms of employment but I would never feel comfortable going to a party where nearly everyone is Native.

Attitudes like mine are common and make integration into the wider community harder for Natives. This combined with poverty, low educational attainment, substandard housing, high levels of alchohol and drug abuse and hence also fetal alchohol syndrome, high rates of incarceration, large families they cannot support, high unemployment, different cultural norms, and a very sexist and mysognistic Native Reserve system makes for a, quite literally, lethal combination.


Native people`s high levels of crime and murder are going to be with Canadians for generations to come.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by someone123

Halifax city was about 400,000 in 2016 while Saskatoon was around 250,000. If the two cities had the same number of murders, that translates into a > 50% higher murder rate in Saskatoon.

Stating that Halifax Regional Municipality population of 400,000 in expansive 5,500 sq/kms is the same as comparing Saskatoon's 250,000 in city limits 228 sq/kms is rather disingenuous.



Nevertheless, Halifax's CMA and Saskatoon's CMA have a very similar murder rate. Although Saskatoon's murder rate is very disproportionately represented by one ethnic community.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t002a-eng.htm

Nova Scotia as a whole has a non-aboriginal murder rate about 3X higher than Saskatchewan's non-aboriginal murder rate.
In 2017 Nova Scotia had 20 in a population of less than 950,000 and Saskatchewan had 8 in population of 1.2 million.

[someone123]

It's not disingenuous, it's how the statistics work. The rate is the number of murders divided by the number of people. If you're looking at the number of murders for a given area, you need to divide by the number of people in the same area. You can't mix and match murder counts from one place and the population from another place.

My post wasn't about which city has more murders. The small counts in small cities are pretty much just noise from one year to another anyway. You can't look at them and conclude much.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's not disingenuous, it's how the statistics work. The rate is the number of murders divided by the number of people. If you're looking at the number of murders for a given area, you need to divide by the number of people in the same area. You can't mix and match murder counts from one place and the population from another place...

Not if you're comparing apples to watermelons.

that's why you can't mix and match completely different area's in size & call them the same. Saskatoon City number of murders is the same as Saskatoon CMA number of murders even though CMA has 80,000 more people, that makes the rate drastically smaller for the CMA as a whole.
Halifax would be the same, even though total number of murders would be largely the same in Halifax City as Halifax Regional Municipipality, Halifax City murder rate is probably a lot higher than the HRM that includes 20% of rest of the province countryside that isn't in another regional municipality.

Originally Posted by someone123

...My post wasn't about which city has more murders. The small counts in small cities are pretty much just noise from one year to another anyway. You can't look at them and conclude much.

That's why you have to compare smaller areas averaged over longer periods of time.
Halifax averaged 10 murders/year from 2007-2016, Saskatoon averaged 8 in same decade of time. Rate of 2.45 compared to 2.63,
very similar... that's how statistics work.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

That's why you have to compare smaller areas averaged over longer periods of time.
Halifax averaged 10 murders/year from 2007-2016, Saskatoon averaged 8 in same decade of time. Rate of 2.45 compared to 2.63,
very similar... that's how statistics work.

This is completely consistent with what I've been saying the whole time. Larger count of murders in Halifax but lower rate because of the larger population.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by someone123

This is completely consistent with what I've been saying the whole time. Larger count of murders in Halifax but lower rate because of the larger population.

In actuality, Halifax CMA statistical murder rate is .18 per 100,000 less than Saskatoon CMA. Which is a minuscule difference, making both city's murder rates virtually identical, which is easy to recognize since the cities are similar in size. Glad you aren't over estimating the truth & can recognize that fact

What i've been saying the whole time is that much like Toronto and Surrey, Saskatoon's murder rate is skewed heavily due to one ethnic community. Halifax and Nova Scotia as-a-whole murder rate, not so much.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

In actuality, Halifax CMA statistical murder rate is .18 per 100,000 less than Saskatoon CMA. Which is a minuscule difference, making both city's murder rates virtually identical, which is easy to recognize since the cities are similar in size. Glad you aren't over estimating the truth & can recognize that fact

What i've been saying the whole time is that much like Toronto and Surrey, Saskatoon's murder rate is skewed heavily due to one ethnic community. Halifax and Nova Scotia as-a-whole murder rate, not so much.

While this can be useful info for some purposes, citing it to laud one city over another is probably going a bit too far.

After all these are all still real people getting killed, regardless of demographics.

[SaskScraper]

^^ I don't think anyone is lauding one city over another based on murder rates, the entire point is to point out the fact that ethnicity in some cities murder rates dictates the values of murder rate across the entire population which sometimes can be misleading.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

^^ I don't think anyone is lauding one city over another based on murder rates, the entire point is to point out the fact that ethnicity in some cities murder rates dictates the values of murder rates across the entire population which sometimes can be misleading.

Couldn't the same be said of the vast majority of murders, which are drug, gang or family-related? If you are not a drug user, don't have dealings with gangs, and have no murderous family members, the murder rate of your city is probably "misleading". The point, surely, is that people are dead.

[Acajack]

City X is extremely safe just as long as you're not black.

City Y is extremely safe just as long as you're not aboriginal.

[SaskScraper]

^^ sadly that's what it basically comes down to.

Originally posted by kwoldtimer
Couldn't the same be said of the vast majority of murders, which are drug, gang or family-related? If you are not a drug user, don't have dealings with gangs, and have no murderous family members, the murder rate of your city is probably "misleading". The point, surely, is that people are dead.

...and as soon as Stats Can does a compilation of all those statistics you mentioned, then we'd know the rates according to each of those descriptions too.

I think one way of helping to prevent murders is to understand the socio-economic issues associated
with ethnicity in our population instead of hiding head in sand & just calling it a 'people that are dead' problem.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

In actuality, Halifax CMA statistical murder rate is .18 per 100,000 less than Saskatoon CMA. Which is a minuscule difference, making both city's murder rates virtually identical, which is easy to recognize since the cities are similar in size. Glad you aren't over estimating the truth & can recognize that fact

Sure, the rates are similar. If we nonsensically juggled the murder counts and populations around based on your insistence that they are the same size we could create a fake 50% difference in murder rate though (divide Halifax's count by Saskatoon's population). Or we could incorrectly conclude that Halifax had the higher murder rate because it has more murders and the populations are "the same" (~1/3 off).

What i've been saying the whole time is that much like Toronto and Surrey, Saskatoon's murder rate is skewed heavily due to one ethnic community. Halifax and Nova Scotia as-a-whole murder rate, not so much.

This isn't true at all, as Acajack suggested above. In 2016 there were 12 murders in Halifax and 7 of the victims were black. 4% of the population but 58% of total murder victims.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by someone123

Sure, the rates are similar. If we nonsensically juggled the murder counts and populations around based on your insistence that they are the same size we could create a fake 50% difference in murder rate though (divide Halifax's count by Saskatoon's population). Or we could incorrectly conclude that Halifax had the higher murder rate because it has more murders and the populations are "the same" (~1/3 off).

Why would you do that though?... when you have the stats to compare right in front of you for more accurate numbers than just guessing like you suggest



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail.../t002a-eng.htm

Originally Posted by someone123

his isn't true at all, as Acajack suggested above. In 2016 there were 12 murders in Halifax and 7 of the victims were black. 4% of the population but 58% of total murder victims.

Very tragic indeed, anytime a region has had a specfically bad year like that one has to consider how society can help alleviate/reduce the number of these tragedies for all the families.

[JuelzJones]

3 for Toronto so far

[SignalHillHiker]

One here yesterday. Ex-boyfriend Kirk Keeping drove to victim Chantel John's reserve (Conne River) and killed her. He's been arrested but it still has to go through the courts.

[trebor204]

After today's police briefing:
Winnipeg at 2 now, another one is still in critical condition, plus a officer involved shooting that left one dead.

[softee]

Toronto is at 4 now.