Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread - Page 20

adamuptownsj · #**381** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 7:55 PM**

I wrote a preview for the race elsewhere and wanted to cross-post it. Pretty much conventional wisdom. Expecting a narrow PC majority regardless of whether they hit 38% or 44%, it doesn't matter too much due to diminishing returns. Big questions for me are Fredericton North, Moncton South, and Miramichi.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/09/13/2020-new-brunswick-snap-election-preview/

adamuptownsj · #**382** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 7:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonHiseler

One last poll from EKOS before the election in NB tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1304966850141474817/photo/1

I would treat EKOS' Thursday night-Saturday morning poll with some skepticism. Bad timeframe.

JHikka · #**383** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 10:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

That Mainstreet poll has some interesting data. Might be some surprisingly close 3-way races tomorrow?

18-34
Green 41.7%
PC 26.5%
Lib 15.1%

35-49
PC 32%
Green 25.3%
Lib 17.1%

Moncton
PC 36.6%
Green 29.1%
Lib 27%

Fredericton
Green 34.2%
PC 25.6%
Lib 20.2%

You should probably indicate whether these numbers include decided voters or if they include undecideds or leanings.

Marty_Mcfly · #**384** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 11:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JHikka

You should probably indicate whether these numbers include decided voters or if they include undecideds or leanings.

Those numbers are for decided and leaning voters.

Marty_Mcfly · #**385** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 1:22 AM**

And here's the late night Forum poll.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/3063/new-brunswick-headed-toward-pc-majority

PC - 36.7%
LIB - 29.9%
GRN - 20.8%
PA - 7.7%
NDP - 4.0%
OTH - 0.9%

Their seat projection is a bit odd though:

PC - 32
LIB - 15
GRN - 1
PA - 1

MonctonRad · #**386** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 3:15 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Their seat projection is a bit odd though:

PC - 32
LIB - 15
GRN - 1
PA - 1

Yeah, I don't buy that at all.

Two of the current three GRN seats are safe. It is only Tantramar/Memramcook which is in play, and that is because there are fewer Mount Allison students on campus this time around to cast ballots. A GRN victory here depends on whether the anglophone vote in Sackville/Tantramar will coalesce around the GRN candidate in order to thwart Acadian Memramcook. I think it will, and I believe the GRN candidate will win. There are a lot of rumblings that Fredericton North is going to go GRN, thus my prediction of four seats for the GRN this time around.

I agree that the PA will likely only get a single seat this time, but even Kris Austin isn't that safe in his own seat. There is a moderate chance the PA will get shut out. There is a slight chance that the PA could get two seats, since the Miramichi incumbent is very popular. Although Miramichi is Liberal leader Kevin Vickers home town, it is surprising in some ways he chose to run there as a Liberal victory here is not absolutely guaranteed.

I would be very surprised to see the Tories with as many as 32 seats.

Marty_Mcfly · #**387** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 12:33 PM**

Yeah, Forum did an awful job on seat projection. I don't think they considered any single aspect of the political landscape of the province. For that seat count to happen, the PCs would need to make inroads into northern Francophone ridings. And the Greens would need to collapse despite somehow getting a larger vote share than the last election. If they were to make the same mistakes for Ontario, Quebec, or BC people would be furious.

I'll drop my predictions this evening after work. Interestingly enough, with a boost in the Green vote share along with favourable regionals, both 338 and LTU have Restigouce West being narrowly won by the Greens.

Marty_Mcfly · #**388** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 5:58 PM**

Copies list from JHikka, but this is what I've got

Restigouche West - LIB
Campbellton-Dalhousie - LIB
Restigouche-Chaleur - LIB
Bathurst West-Beresford - LIB
Bathurst East-Nepisi - LIB
Caraquet - LIB
Shippagan-Lameque - LIB
Tracadie-Sheila - LIB

Miramichi Bay-Neguac - LIB
Miramichi - LIB
Southwest Miramichi-BDV - PC

Kent North - GRN
Kent South - LIB
Shediac Bay-Dieppe - LIB
Shediac-Beaubassin - LIB
Memramcook-Tantramar - GRN
Dieppe - LIB
Moncton East - PC
Moncton Centre - LIB
Moncton South - PC
Moncton Northwest - PC
Moncton Southwest - PC
Riverview - PC
Albert - PC
Gagetown-Petitcodiac - PC

Sussex-Fundy - PC
Hampton - PC
Quispamsis - PC
Rothesay - PC
Saint John East - PC
Portland-Simonds - PC
Saint John Harbour - PC
Saint John Lancaster - PC
Kings Centre - PC
Fundy-The Isles - PC
Saint Croix - PC

Oromocto-Lincoln - PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake - PANB
New Maryland-Sunbury - PC
Fredericton South - GRN
Fredericton North - GRN
Fredericton-York - PC
Fredericton West - PC
Carleton-York - PC

Carleton - PC
Carleton-Victoria - PC
Victoria-La Vallee - LIB
Edmundston-Madawaska - LIB
Madawaska-Les Lacs - LIB

PC - 26
LIB - 18
GRN - 4
PANB - 1

MonctonRad · #**389** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 6:54 PM**

Your prediction is identical to mine.

In essence:

- francophone & northern - all LIB
- anglophone & southern - all PC
- GRN will solidify it's position as the third party, probably picking up a seat.
- PA is going nowhere except for their leader Kris Austen.

The linguistic divide in NB is as stark as it has ever been. Usually there would be a small caucus of southern Liberal anglophones and maybe a francophone PC or two. Not this time around.

If the Liberals become even more associated with being "the party of the French" than they are now, then they could be in electoral trouble in the future, especially with the continued rise of the Green Party. Somehow, the Liberals are going to have to discover a platform to make themselves palatable to anglophone parts of the province.

I wonder if Vickers will stay on as party leader? If not, will the Liberals choose another anglophone leader in order to try and broaden their base???

JonHiseler · #**390** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 7:16 PM**

Copying the list as well for my predictions:

Restigouche West - Green
Campbellton-Dalhousie - Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur - Liberal
Bathurst West-Beresford - Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisi - Liberal
Caraquet - Liberal
Shippagan-Lameque - Liberal
Tracadie-Sheila - Liberal

Miramichi Bay-Neguac - Liberal
Miramichi - Liberal
Southwest Miramichi-BDV - Progressive Conservative

Kent North - Green
Kent South - Liberal
Shediac Bay-Dieppe - Liberal
Shediac-Beaubassin - Liberal
Memramcook-Tantramar - Green
Dieppe - Liberal
Moncton East - Progressive Conservative
Moncton Centre - Liberal
Moncton South - Liberal
Moncton Northwest - Progressive Conservative
Moncton Southwest - Progressive Conservative
Riverview - Progressive Conservative
Albert - Progressive Conservative
Gagetown-Petitcodiac - Progressive Conservative

Sussex-Fundy - Progressive Conservative
Hampton - Progressive Conservative
Quispamsis - Progressive Conservative
Rothesay - Progressive Conservative
Saint John East - Progressive Conservative
Portland-Simonds - Progressive Conservative
Saint John Harbour - Progressive Conservative
Saint John Lancaster - Progressive Conservative
Kings Centre - Progressive Conservative
Fundy-The Isles - Progressive Conservative
Saint Croix - Progressive Conservative

Oromocto-Lincoln - Progressive Conservative
Fredericton-Grand Lake - People's Alliance
New Maryland-Sunbury - Progressive Conservative
Fredericton South - Green
Fredericton North - Green
Fredericton-York - Progressive Conservative
Fredericton West - Progressive Conservative
Carleton-York - Progressive Conservative

Carleton - Progressive Conservative
Carleton-Victoria - Progressive Conservative
Victoria-La Vallee - Liberal
Edmundston-Madawaska - Liberal
Madawaska-Les Lacs - Liberal

Progressive Conservative: 25
Liberal: 18
Green: 5
People's Alliance: 1

starburns42 · #**391** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 7:24 PM**

Is it just me or PAs are underrated? They kept the Cons in check, pushed for the paramedics reclassification, 2 year MVI, and front license plates on the top of my head.. Beers on the groceries (not sure if it was PAs or Cons)..

They got a bad rep because they are criticizing bilingualism, french immersion, etc..

Taeolas · #**392** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 7:51 PM**

I think the People's Alliance came off as a PC Protest vote, and they didn't do enough to distinguish themselves as "Different" during the minority government, so now people are basically saying "Why vote for PC-Protest when they will just do what the PCs say anyways".

Making the agreement to support Higgs's government for 18 months at the start probably did them in. Sure they pushed back on some things, but ultimately they are seen as PC supporters.

The Greens had a chance with Gallant's majority government to set their own agenda and establish themselves separate from the other parties. And they explicitly did NOT make any agreement to support Higgs or Gallant when they had the deciding power; so they are continuing to cement their position as a 3rd party, and not just "Liberal Protest" or a similar protest vote.

L'homard · #**393** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 8:18 PM**

I doubt the PAs will score more than two goals, if that, today.
I have no theories to offer why that is.

Marty_Mcfly · #**394** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 8:29 PM**

Checks out Taeolas.

As is the case with these types of elections, anticipate a surprise or two. Very little polling is done, and most don't have large sample sizes (and regional data is even smaller). There's always a riding or two where the result comes as a surprise.

During the 2019 NL election, two ridings in Labrador flipped despite polling suggesting the Liberals were well ahead there. Labrador West went to the NDP by just 2 votes, and Torngat Mountains flipped to the PCs in a true jaw dropper.

adamuptownsj · #**395** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 9:31 PM**

Here's mine. I assumed slight Liberal overperformance up north, keeping Restigouche West red, and underperformance in English areas, flipping Moncton South blue, and failing to take Miramichi from the Alliance. I see Mitton winning despite college students being home. I also think PCs benefit from an Alliance collapse outside of held ridings and scoop up Fredericton North thanks to split left.

PC: 27
Liberal: 17
Green 3
Alliance 2

Restigouche West - LIB
Campbellton-Dalhousie - LIB
Restigouche-Chaleur - LIB
Bathurst West-Beresford - LIB
Bathurst East-Nepisi - LIB
Caraquet - LIB
Shippagan-Lameque - LIB
Tracadie-Sheila - LIB

Miramichi Bay-Neguac - LIB
Miramichi - PA
Southwest Miramichi-BDV - PC

Kent North - GRN
Kent South - LIB
Shediac Bay-Dieppe - LIB
Shediac-Beaubassin - LIB
Memramcook-Tantramar - GRN
Dieppe - LIB
Moncton East - PC
Moncton Centre - LIB
Moncton South - PC
Moncton Northwest - PC
Moncton Southwest - PC
Riverview - PC
Albert - PC
Gagetown-Petitcodiac - PC

Sussex-Fundy - PC
Hampton - PC
Quispamsis - PC
Rothesay - PC
Saint John East - PC
Portland-Simonds - PC
Saint John Harbour - PC
Saint John Lancaster - PC
Kings Centre - PC
Fundy-The Isles - PC
Saint Croix - PC

Oromocto-Lincoln - PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake - PA
New Maryland-Sunbury - PC
Fredericton South - GRN
Fredericton North - PC
Fredericton-York - PC
Fredericton West - PC
Carleton-York - PC

Carleton - PC
Carleton-Victoria - PC
Victoria-La Vallee - LIB
Edmundston-Madawaska - LIB
Madawaska-Les Lacs - LIB

Taeolas · #**396** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 10:00 PM**

Hopefully this doesn't tilt things much. Apparently Mount Alison students were turned away the polls this mornign when they tried to vote. Elections NB has since clarified that returned students are eligible to vote and anyone turned away should return. Considering that's a Green riding that could be heavily affected by the student vote as mentioned earlier, that could be a major issue depending on how many were actually turned away and/or couldn't return.

Dengler Avenue · #**397** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 10:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Hopefully this doesn't tilt things much. Apparently Mount Alison students were turned away the polls this mornign when they tried to vote. Elections NB has since clarified that returned students are eligible to vote and anyone turned away should return. Considering that's a Green riding that could be heavily affected by the student vote as mentioned earlier, that could be a major issue depending on how many were actually turned away and/or couldn't return.

Why does it sound so familiar...

JHikka · #**398** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 10:25 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by starburns42

Is it just me or PAs are underrated?

They rode the populist wave of 2016-2018 and got some votes through it but they're not sustainable long-term, and that wave has certainly crashed and burned in the two years since. Mostly viewed as a protest PC vote at best at this point, and they haven't done enough to distinguish themselves from merely being PC-but-a-different-colour.

Marty_Mcfly · #**399** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 11:18 PM**

Still early, but here's your first shocker. Vickers is down quite a bit in his own riding.

JonHiseler · #**400** Posted **Sep 14, 2020, 11:25 PM**

Greens have the slim lead in Moncton Centre over the Liberals. Liberals have a slight lead over Greens in Memramcook-Tantramar.