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Now to political safe seats... have been doing this analysis for a couple of decades - demographics, population growth, historical voting trends, etc. In that vein, the BC Boundaries Commission has completed another redistribution of seats... and the transposed results from 2013 don't change any outcomes thereto.
But the BCBC has added another 2 seats for the next election - one in Richmond and one in southern Surrey (basically my neck of the woods) due to population growth - both can be considered "safe" BC Liberal seats heading into 2017.
Now looking at "safe" seats heading into 2017 and having reviewed all (with transposed results) I confidently come to this conclusion:
1. BC Liberal - 42;
2. BC NDP - 20; (basically the West Kootenay, northern Surrey, New Westminster, southern Burnaby (Edmonds), East Van (and West End), as well as a chunk of Van Isle ridings)
3. BC Green - 1;
4. Ind. - 1;
And when I infer "safe" seats - I mean those with considerable winning margins in 2013 and historically prior as well as demographics. The rest of the 23 remaining ridings are either "leaning" or "swing".
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Alright. The "red meat" detail in terms of "safe seats" that I described in my opening post:
Vancouver:
1. Vancouver-False Creek - Lib
2. Vancouver-Hastings - NDP
3. Vancouver-Kensington - NDP
4. Vancouver-Kingsway - NDP
5. Vancouver-Langara - Lib
6. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant - NDP
7. Vancouver-Quilchena - Lib
8. Vancouver-West End - NDP
Total safe seats:
NDP - 5
Lib - 3
Metro Vancouver/Fraser Valley:
9. West Vancouver-Capilano - Lib
10. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky - Lib
11. North Vancouver-Seymour - Lib
12. Richmond North Centre - Lib
13. Richmond-Queensborough - Lib
14. Richmond South Centre - Lib
15. Richmond-Steveston - Lib
16. Delta South - Ind. (Vicki Huntington)
17. Surrey-Cloverdale - Lib
18. Surrey-Green Timbers - NDP
19. Surrey-Guildford - Lib
20. Surrey-Newton - NDP
21. Surrey-Panorama - Lib
22. Surrey South - Lib
23. Surrey-Whalley - NDP
24. Surrey-White Rock - Lib
25. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain - Lib
26. Port Coquitlam - NDP
27. Port Moody-Coquitlam - Lib
28. Burnaby-Edmonds - NDP
29. New Westminster - NDP
30. Langley - Lib
31. Langley-East - Lib
32. Abbotsford-Mission - Lib
33. Abbotsford South - Lib
34. Abbotsford West - Lib
35. Chilliwack - Lib
36. Chilliwack-Kent - Lib
Total safe seats:
Lib - 21
NDP - 6
Ind. - 1
BC Interior:
37. Cariboo-Chilcotin - Lib
38. Cariboo North - Lib
39. Kamloops-South Thompson - Lib
40. Kamloops-Noprth Thompson - Lib
41. Kelowna-Lake Country - Lib
42. Kelowna-Mission - Lib
43. Kelowna West - Lib
44. Kootenay East - Lib
45. Kootenay West - NDP
46. Nechako Lakes - Lib
47. Nelson-Creston - NDP
48. North Coast - NDP
49. Peace River North - Lib
50. Peace River South - Lib
51. Penticton - Lib
52. Powell River-Sunshine Coast - NDP
53. Prince George-Mackenzie - Lib
54. Prince George-Valemount - Lib
55. Shuswap - Lib
56. Vernon-Monashee - Lib
Total safe seats:
Lib - 16
NDP - 4
Vancouver Island:
57. Courtenay-Comox - Lib
58. Esquimalt-Metchosin - NDP
59. Langford-Juan de Fuca - NDP
60. Mid Island-Pacific Rim - NDP
61. Nanaimo-North Cowichan - NDP
62. Oak Bay-Gordon Head - Green
63. Parksville-Qualicum - Lib
64, Victoria-Beacon Hill - NDP
65. Victoria-Swan Lake - NDP
Total safe seats:
NDP - 6
Lib - 2
Green - 1
BC Overall Safe Seats:
Lib - 42
NDP - 21
Green - 1
Ind. - 1
Right there... 42 safe Lib seats + 1 Ind. + 1 Green equates a majority in the new 87 seat legislature. Another 22 seats would be considered either "leaning" or "swing" and I already have a good sense where most of those will likely fall as well. Any dispute with any of the "safe" seats in the foregoing list... well... just have at 'er.