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  #21  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 12:46 AM
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Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
Anybody that throws down 50,000 on a condo without doing their own due diligence is a complete fool. Anyone that does their own due diligence on a prebuilt product is being foolish
... So either way the pre-built buyer is a fool? Right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
The projects he has a role in are design[sic] by two great firms and are using curtain wall panels. I don't know why anyone would not want towers of this quality in their city regardless of him being a douche or his after market service being slow to respond.
But his recently completed project in Toronto and Ottawa have been widely criticized for their built quality and poor finishings.
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  #22  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 1:08 AM
Spring2008 Spring2008 is offline
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I'm questioning why he's using NOI for a 25 year horizon? Is that what residential investors use? It's a very simplified approach.

And no, if you you're using a DCF approach you absolutely do not use inflation as a required rate of return to analyze whether to buy, or you'll be vastly overpaying. Better off parking your money in a bank account. You're forgetting about risk premiums and opportunity costs of investing the $50k in alternative forms of investments. I'm not sure why I'm still educating you, invoice coming in the mail.

You can subscribe to Altus Insite, but they don't put out daily amber alerts on which inner city neighbourhoods to avoid, so kind of a waste of money for you.

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Originally Posted by suburbia View Post
Why would you use such a silly example? At best you use inflation. At worst, you simply state the amount ABC years from now, and in stating it is ABC years from now, it is an absolutely valid statement.

I'd like to see the Altus Insite average IRR formula, as I almost guarantee that they do not actually formulate the IRR based on the actual amount used for the down, and rather, use the full value price.

I'm not sure why I'm educating you. Uneducated renters have made me a good chunk of change in the past.
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  #23  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 1:30 AM
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What does below mean? Ok, yeah 6th and 10th is a great design. Below is a very simple glass box which is a decent filler, but with hardly any flair or imagination. There are at lease a dozen developers here putting out at least the same or significantly more creative quality designs than this.


Quote:
bradjlamb
6 days ago
I hope our project helps showcase #Calgary's hunger for imaginative design that puts urban lifestyle front & centre. #TheOrchard
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  #24  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 5:26 AM
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Agree the designs are hardly imaginative, but I must say the courtyard orchard is truly awesome. Hopefully they get someone who knows how to look after trees to take care of them.
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  #25  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 8:04 AM
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Originally Posted by suburbia View Post
Why would you use such a silly example? At best you use inflation. At worst, you simply state the amount ABC years from now, and in stating it is ABC years from now, it is an absolutely valid statement.

I'd like to see the Altus Insite average IRR formula, as I almost guarantee that they do not actually formulate the IRR based on the actual amount used for the down, and rather, use the full value price.

I'm not sure why I'm educating you. Uneducated renters have made me a good chunk of change in the past.
I don't think you have any idea what you're talking about.
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  #26  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 3:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spring2008 View Post
What does below mean? Ok, yeah 6th and 10th is a great design. Below is a very simple glass box which is a decent filler, but with hardly any flair or imagination. There are at lease a dozen developers here putting out at least the same or significantly more creative quality designs than this.




If those balcony's are not transparant (glass) it is going to make for some very dark and dingy spaces. Hopefully they are glass.
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  #27  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 3:45 PM
waichuntull waichuntull is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
The projects he has a role in are design by two great firms and are using curtain wall panels. I don't know why anyone would not want towers of this quality in their city regardless of him being a douche or his after market service being slow to respond.
Interesting concept..... arises
Like to learn more about:
1. Tower of this quality is just because of curtain wall panel...
Is curtain wall panel really good?
2. "Want a tower of this quality"
What is the correlation among "curtain wall panels", "him being a douche" and "his after market service being slow to respond"?
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  #28  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 9:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Electrical Storm View Post
... So either way the pre-built buyer is a fool? Right.



But his recently completed project in Toronto and Ottawa have been widely criticized for their built quality and poor finishings.
Yeah, I would say the risk of buying prebuilt is certainly not worth the reward. Every single project is widely criticized in Toronto and there certainly is some merit to it. However, Lamb's projects range quite wildly in terms of quality given the many different partners he has had. The better ones seem to be the ones where he has had more of contribution.
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  #29  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 9:18 PM
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Originally Posted by waichuntull View Post
Interesting concept..... arises
Like to learn more about:
1. Tower of this quality is just because of curtain wall panel...
Is curtain wall panel really good?
2. "Want a tower of this quality"
What is the correlation among "curtain wall panels", "him being a douche" and "his after market service being slow to respond"?
I really don't feel I need to clarify.

Anyways, I don't care for him or his abrupt style of marketing. The projects he's involved in are very pleasant to look at from an observer passing by. Even better that unitized curtain wall panels has replaced window wall on his newest projects. (you will have to figure that out yourself) What happens on the inside is of little consequence to me however, his projects are far from the worst I've seen throughout Canada in both quality and expectations. The worst I've heard is the time it takes to address cosmetic deficiencies. How he and his partners arrange financing is fairly commonplace in the industry too.


A link is no bother to post so, this is curtain wall. Aura, Guardian, First, etc. are not.
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/showthr...32s-aA)/page19
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  #30  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 9:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spring2008 View Post
What does below mean? Ok, yeah 6th and 10th is a great design. Below is a very simple glass box which is a decent filler, but with hardly any flair or imagination. There are at lease a dozen developers here putting out at least the same or significantly more creative quality designs than this.





You hear the same thing among Toronto forumers. What's interesting is the actually built evidence throughout the city that shows simple is as difficult or even more difficult to pull off than something with flair or imagination. Flair or a more complex design allows you to get away with a lot more compromises. aA is an exceptional firm in designing exteriors that fit the interior floor plan. Spandrel is kept to a minimum and functions as part of the design. Spandrel fakery is nearly non existent. I do agree Orchard is one of their weaker contributions.
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  #31  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 9:40 PM
suburbia suburbia is offline
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Originally Posted by Spring2008 View Post
I'm questioning why he's using NOI for a 25 year horizon? Is that what residential investors use? It's a very simplified approach.
Here is the skinny for you ...
  • You have a $200K condo on which you put $50K down.
  • You collect enough rent to cover mortgage, tax, insurance, hoa, maintenance and interest on your down.
  • If your condo value goes up 5% per year, in five years your condo is worth $200K*(1+0.05)^5 = $255K
  • That is a net increase of $55K on an investment of $50K, a gain of 110%, or about 20% per year.
  • The real number may well be better than the above, as odds are good that your monthly costs on a $150K mortgage + all carrying costs will be less than your monthly revenue. Additionally, I've not included how much of the mortgage will have paid down the original principal. Even at $200 per month, over five years that is a bonus $12K.

Oh, and by the way, before selling the property at the end of all of that, you may want to upgrade with some renovations, and write it all off against the income the property makes.

Want to do one better? Once you're done with renting it out for five years and making 110% profit, and then renovating it to an extremely desirable level, move into it for six months and then sell as your primary residence, thus not having to pay taxes on your profits.

Now all of the above being said, there is a huge risk specifically because this is a condo. You'll likely have a curtain wall, elevator or LED failure along the way ... and that is why I don't pick up condos. They suck.

Last edited by suburbia; Nov 14, 2014 at 10:47 PM.
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  #32  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 10:39 PM
waichuntull waichuntull is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
I really don't feel I need to clarify.

Anyways, I don't care for him or his abrupt style of marketing. The projects he's involved in are very pleasant to look at from an observer passing by. Even better that unitized curtain wall panels has replaced window wall on his newest projects. (you will have to figure that out yourself) What happens on the inside is of little consequence to me however, his projects are far from the worst I've seen throughout Canada in both quality and expectations. The worst I've heard is the time it takes to address cosmetic deficiencies. How he and his partners arrange financing is fairly commonplace in the industry too.


A link is no bother to post so, this is curtain wall. Aura, Guardian, First, etc. are not.
http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/showthr...32s-aA)/page19
Thanks for the info and comments
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  #33  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 10:47 PM
waichuntull waichuntull is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
Yeah, I would say the risk of buying prebuilt is certainly not worth the reward. Every single project is widely criticized in Toronto and there certainly is some merit to it. However, Lamb's projects range quite wildly in terms of quality given the many different partners he has had. The better ones seem to be the ones where he has had more of contribution.
If there were similar discussion and comments, my co-workers in Ottawa and Calgary are not stuck at the current situation.

It is just unfortunate for them.
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  #34  
Old Posted Nov 14, 2014, 11:26 PM
Canucklehead Canucklehead is offline
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Originally Posted by suburbia View Post
Here is the skinny for you ...
  • You have a $200K condo on which you put $50K down.
  • You collect enough rent to cover mortgage, tax, insurance, hoa, maintenance and interest on your down.
  • If your condo value goes up 5% per year, in five years your condo is worth $200K*(1+0.05)^5 = $255K
  • That is a net increase of $55K on an investment of $50K, a gain of 110%, or about 20% per year.
  • The real number may well be better than the above, as odds are good that your monthly costs on a $150K mortgage + all carrying costs will be less than your monthly revenue. Additionally, I've not included how much of the mortgage will have paid down the original principal. Even at $200 per month, over five years that is a bonus $12K.

Oh, and by the way, before selling the property at the end of all of that, you may want to upgrade with some renovations, and write it all off against the income the property makes.

Want to do one better? Once you're done with renting it out for five years and making 110% profit, and then renovating it to an extremely desirable level, move into it for six months and then sell as your primary residence, thus not having to pay taxes on your profits.

Now all of the above being said, there is a huge risk specifically because this is a condo. You'll likely have a curtain wall, elevator or LED failure along the way ... and that is why I don't pick up condos. They suck.
What if your condo doesnt go up 5% a year?
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  #35  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2014, 1:22 AM
jsbertram jsbertram is offline
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I noticed that Doc Zone on CBC is re-running their "Condo Game" episode again, so set your DVR

or you can watch it on the CBC website.
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  #36  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2014, 2:02 AM
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I had the funniest nightmare last night. Basically I went to a sales centre for a Brad Lamb project and it turned out to be a front for a satanic cult that abducted me and some other visitors and wanted to steal our souls. It was so weird.
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  #37  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2014, 5:14 AM
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Originally Posted by O-tacular View Post
I had the funniest nightmare last night. Basically I went to a sales centre for a Brad Lamb project and it turned out to be a front for a satanic cult that abducted me and some other visitors and wanted to steal our souls. It was so weird.
The neuralyzer failed to completely work.
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  #38  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2014, 5:35 AM
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I wonder if people on the Toronto forums hate on Lamb as much as we do.
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  #39  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2014, 6:05 AM
suburbia suburbia is offline
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Originally Posted by Canucklehead View Post
What if your condo doesnt go up 5% a year?
The rent your bringing in is cash flow positive, which it absolutely should be (else you shouldn't be in this business). You also still have someone else paying down several hundred dollars a month against your principal. I got into a situation like that when buying high in 2007, and ended up only making 15% per year against my investment when I sold five years later for the same price I purchased at. This was just based on the positive monthly cash flow and principal being paid down - as it sold for virtually the same as it was purchased. It was sad, but not that sad. Worse would be the poor folks who were renting that particular place from me. They paid their rent and got nothing out of it. Ideally in this situation, you shouldn't sell. Because you have no net carrying costs and are cash flow positive, you just wait till you get a better price. I sold as I wanted to pull money out for something else.

Generally speaking though, I don't like condo investments because there are more unknowns and control lies elsewhere.

Last edited by suburbia; Nov 20, 2014 at 6:14 PM.
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  #40  
Old Posted Nov 20, 2014, 6:11 PM
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Originally Posted by DizzyEdge View Post
The neuralyzer failed to completely work.
I wasn't even making a joke. That was a real dream I had. This forum must be infiltrating my subconscious.
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