PC leader wants manitoba to have 2 million population by 2028

[Tower Crane]

This Hugh Macfadyen is an idiot. Dreaming about putting the cart before the horse should be kept in his head, he should be dreaming about creating well paying jobs jobs jobs that coupled with lower personal taxes to bring back ex Manitobans such as myself and many others.

[204]

Is this guy for real?

Manitoba has grown by 200,000 people in the last 40 years and now he thinks that it will somehow gain 800,000 in the next 18? Who will build the infrastructure (let alone repair what is already in place) for this unprecendented event?

[rrskylar]

I've always thought Hugh Macfadyen's head was too big for his body!

[newflyer]

Originally Posted by CB-MAN

This Hugh Macfadyen is an idiot. Dreaming about putting the cart before the horse should be kept in his head, he should be dreaming about creating well paying jobs jobs jobs that coupled with lower personal taxes to bring back ex Manitobans such as myself and many others.

I believe bringing back the thousands of ex-Manitobans who have left Manitoba for high paying jobs would be a big part of that strategy.

I doubt he was refering to cloning... so I'd suggest the horse is in its rightful place. Bring back all those who wanted to stay, but were'nt able to obtain a high paying job in there field, and felt they had to move. Build the economy and draw many more. It sure beats drifting through life on the backs of the massive federal trasfer payments, as the NDP's actions would dictate... as the only has-not in western Canada.

Doer has zero vision and even less ambition for the province.. and Manitoba loves him for it.

[Spocket]

^Well no, obviously the horse isn't in the right place. People don't move hundreds of kilometers just because they were invited to. They move for jobs and until those jobs actually exist nobody is going to be moving anywhere.

[IntotheWest]

^Exactly, and after a period of time, a lot of "roots" are going to be set...I've been in AB 10 years now, and though my wife and I have talked about making a move back to Winnipeg, there's little chance we would...even if all of a sudden the right job was there with the same cost-of-living for us. I'm guessing there's still a lot of ex-MBers in the same boat.

[h0twired]

Originally Posted by IntotheWest

^Exactly, and after a period of time, a lot of "roots" are going to be set...I've been in AB 10 years now, and though my wife and I have talked about making a move back to Winnipeg, there's little chance we would...even if all of a sudden the right job was there with the same cost-of-living for us. I'm guessing there's still a lot of ex-MBers in the same boat.

I am in the same boat.

Have been in Calgary for 7+ years now and while we talk about moving to Winnipeg to be closer to my family and the lakes... its unlikely that we will unless the economic climate in Winnipeg improves.

For now our roots are in Calgary even though my hometown is Winnipeg.

[Tower Crane]

Originally Posted by h0twired

I am in the same boat.

Have been in Calgary for 7+ years now and while we talk about moving to Winnipeg to be closer to my family and the lakes... its unlikely that we will unless the economic climate in Winnipeg improves.

For now our roots are in Calgary even though my hometown is Winnipeg.

Same thing here, we have been in Sherwood Park / Edmonton for 7 years. It has been a great seven years. Airfares are cheap to fly back once a year to keep the connection. The money is two to three times more which has set us and the kids up for a much much better future. The kids also see Alberta as home now which a number of transplanted Manitobans with kids experience.

[drew]

Originally Posted by CB-MAN

The money is two to three times more

I gotta ask what kind of work you are in.

I agree that wages are higher in Alberta, but I haven't seen many professional salaries approach close to double, let alone three times.

It's good that all of you seem to have got into Alberta about 7 years ago. As it stands now, they could jingle 100k+ a year jobs in front of my nose and I wouldn't even consider it. We would have to give up a nice house in a fantastic inner city neighbourhood to trade for a either a shoebox condo or cookie-cutter out in the burbs if we ever made the move west.

This is the reality facing my sister and her husband, who make a combined $150k a year in Calgary, but can't fathom the mortgage for a house in the inner city, hate condos, and hate the burbs...

I truly think the new reality of Alberta for recent grads is a lot different to what many of you have experienced just 5-7 years ago.

[JayM]

hmmm a mass population boom by 2028, or a mass transit system by 2028.. which will happen first? who knows its a race.. lets watch. lol

[h0twired]

Originally Posted by drew

This is the reality facing my sister and her husband, who make a combined $150k a year in Calgary, but can't fathom the mortgage for a house in the inner city, hate condos, and hate the burbs...

However if they move to Winnipeg and may end up making $100,000 between the 2 of them they will have $50,000 less per year to spend on a mortgage in Winnipeg. They will also probably pay more in income and property taxes in Winnipeg and will end up behind where they were in Calgary.

So you either buy a renovated inner city Winnipeg home for $250k or buy the same place $650k home in Calgary and you still come out ahead in Calgary.

$50k per year goes a long way when you dedicate it to your mortgage.

I have done the math a number of times for me and my wife and will still have more money in our pockets at the end of the month living in Calgary even if we were mortgage free in Winnipeg.

[drew]

Originally Posted by h0twired

So you either buy a renovated inner city Winnipeg home for $250k or buy the same place $650k home in Calgary and you still come out ahead in Calgary.

$50k per year goes a long way when you dedicate it to your mortgage.

I am not talking about people moving back to live mortgage free, I am talking about people entering the market.

I don't know anyone who is disciplined enough to dedicate the "extra" $50k of their gross take home salary to house payments. Not withstanding the fact that that extra money would probably be better off invested in other areas than property...

Looking a little more closely at the mortgage costs.

To purchase a house at 650k, assuming a 5% interest rate for 25 years, and monthly payments, it will end up costing you nearly $485k in interest charges, and a monthly payment of almost $3780(!!). (Let's not even talk about the significant down payment required, that you will likely need to finance too).

A house at $250k will cost you $186k in interest with a monthly payment of $1450. The cheaper house also affords the ability to put a substantial down payment.

That is a difference of just about 300k simply in interest charges (that is throw-away NET not GROSS salary money), and requires an extra net income devoted ONLY to mortgage of approx. $2380 a month .

The point I am trying to make, is that home ownership in Calgary for a young couple/person just starting out is a VERY daunting undertaking, especially if they want a house.

Most people posting in this thread seem to have moved out west when home prices were far lower, and have since benefited from the large increases in property values.

If you are moving in to Alberta now, or graduating now, or entering the market now, the above stats are your reality if you want to live like you could live if you "stayed home".

[Tower Crane]

Originally Posted by drew

I gotta ask what kind of work you are in.

I agree that wages are higher in Alberta, but I haven't seen many professional salaries approach close to double, let alone three times.

It's good that all of you seem to have got into Alberta about 7 years ago. As it stands now, they could jingle 100k+ a year jobs in front of my nose and I wouldn't even consider it. We would have to give up a nice house in a fantastic inner city neighbourhood to trade for a either a shoebox condo or cookie-cutter out in the burbs if we ever made the move west.

This is the reality facing my sister and her husband, who make a combined $150k a year in Calgary, but can't fathom the mortgage for a house in the inner city, hate condos, and hate the burbs...

I truly think the new reality of Alberta for recent grads is a lot different to what many of you have experienced just 5-7 years ago.

You pretty much nailed it Drew as 5 - 7 years was the right time. Without giving away to many secrets my industry career choice was paying me 'X' in Winnipeg. My buddies to this day are still making 'X' plus cost of living. When I moved here it was for 2 times the pay and since has become 3 times 'X'. Housing was still cheap when I relocated so no dif there.
Since I have been keeping a keen eye on Winnipeg I see the house prices have risen significantly since I moved which everyone thinks is great. Not so great for the first time home buyers still making average Manitoba paychecks. Now here in Alberta a see a huge difference between first time home buyers as they do not buy starter houses. Everyone seems to have more money to make the immediate jump to what I would have considered a home you buy after you have about 3 houses. They also seem to have enough left over to always have a new Super truck, BMW, Infiniti, Hummer, or some other higher end vehicle sitting out on the driveway.

[h0twired]

Originally Posted by drew

To purchase a house at 650k, assuming a 5% interest rate for 25 years, and monthly payments, it will end up costing you nearly $485k in interest charges, and a monthly payment of almost $3780(!!). (Let's not even talk about the significant down payment required, that you will likely need to finance too).

A house at $250k will cost you $186k in interest with a monthly payment of $1450. The cheaper house also affords the ability to put a substantial down payment.

That is a difference of just about 300k simply in interest charges (that is throw-away NET not GROSS salary money), and requires an extra net income devoted ONLY to mortgage of approx. $2380 a month .

OK so a difference of $300k in interest charges.

Now consider the difference in income once you move back to Winnipeg. I would assume (like most jobs) that they aren't going to get paid $150k combined anymore in Winnipeg. So if they are making $100k combined after the move how much income are they giving up?

$50,000/year... 25 years... $1.25 MILLION. Now granted that is before taxes. So lets assume they get dinged for about 30% (high estimate). That still leaves them at $875,000 difference. So would you rather lose $875,000 in income over 25 years or pay $300,000 less interest?

The trick here is to take the numbers and figure out how much you need to make in Winnipeg so that you actually end up ahead.

Remember to also take into account higher income, sales and property taxes in Winnipeg.

[drew]

^ perhaps you are right. However the interest you pay to the bank will never be "assumed", that's a lock. The salary you receive, the value of your property, etc. can always vary from year to year, person to person and place to place. It's even possible that maybe you will make more in Winnipeg, who knows.

In my mind, I am FAR more comfortable with a much smaller mortgage that seems to make sense for the house I actually own. If my current house was purchased for $650k, I would lie awake every night wondering what the hell I would do if property values fall, interest rates go up, someone loses a job, etc. etc.

However for me right now, I am safe in the fact that I could lose my job tomorrow, and even weather a fair whack of interest increases, and we would still be able to afford our house on my wife's teachers salary. The same cannot be said for the 650k house however you tweak the income tax, salary difference, etc.

[ssiguy]

BCers would give their left nut to have house prices as CHEAP as Alberta's.
A $500,000 house? Not in Vancouver. You wouldn't get even a shack in Vancouver for less than $900k. That is why vancouver and BC in general have, by far and away, the lowest rate of home ownership in the country.

[ssiguy]

Forgot to say that as far as dreaming big, that's great but if they aren't even close to being realistic then all it does is set everyone up for failure.
I wish the percapita income of everyone in the country would double in 5 years but it won't even happen in 20 when negating inflation.
I do think that 1.5 million is quite doable and sustainable in 20 years which would be great as most would be in Winnipeg which would see the old Peg zeroing in on the one million mark.

[Hillbillary]

Perhaps McFadyen has a different strategy in mind. Come next election, instead of kissing babies, he plans a more "hands on" approach while campaigning.

[Rob D]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

BCers would give their left nut to have house prices as CHEAP as Alberta's.
A $500,000 house? Not in Vancouver. You wouldn't get even a shack in Vancouver for less than $900k. That is why vancouver and BC in general have, by far and away, the lowest rate of home ownership in the country.

Statistics Canada


Wednesday, June 4, 2008
2006 Census: Changing patterns in Canadian homeownership and shelter costs

In 2006, Canada's homeownership rate reached its highest level since 1971, according to a new detailed analysis of data on housing, homeownership and shelter costs from the 2006 Census. At the same time, the percentage of households spending 30% or more of their incomes on shelter, a measurement of housing affordability developed by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the provinces, increased slightly. Most of this increase was for homeowners with mortgages as opposed to renters or mortgage-free owners.

Of the 12.4 million households in Canada, more than 8.5 million, over two-thirds (68.4%) owned their home, the highest rate since 1971. At the same time, the proportion of Canadian households that rented their home slipped from 33.8% in 2001 to 31.2% in 2006. About 3.9 million households rented their home in 2006. The increase during the five-year period continues the long-term trend in rising homeownership that picked up in 1991 after a period of low growth during the 1980s.

In 2006, an estimated 3.0 million households, or 24.9% of the total, spent 30% or more of their income on shelter, a slight gain from 2001. Among homeowners with mortgages, the proportion was 25.7%, up from 23.6% in 2001. Some of these households may have chosen to spend more than 30% on housing, but the census does not provide information on intentions. Households in the Atlantic provinces continued to have the highest homeownership rates in the country in 2006. Those in Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest rate, 78.7%. Households in Quebec had the lowest provincial rate at 60.1%.

Source