National Economy

[ssiguy]

LighteningGuy.............excellent post about EV adoption and I agree with what you stated 100%. I will, however, add another reason why EV sales are soaring.......resale value.

Due to our increasingly carbon taxes, gas prices are going no where but up and ICE engines are going to start failing off a cliff. Considering that most Canadians keep their cars for about a decade that means that someone today will basically be trying to sell their car in 2035 when new ICE vehicles will no longer be available for sale. By 2030, the idea of buying an ICE car will seem completely bizarre even though some may still be produced.

It's kind of like the old stick shift cars. They were never mandated out but now so few people under the age of 50 even know how to drive one that, even if you love driving a stick, you will never be able to resell it.

[LightingGuy]

Have to respectfully disagree with you regarding stick shift cars.

Used stick shift cars tend to sell for more than their automatic counterparts, because they're so hard to find.

I had a 2018 VW Golf Sportwagon with a 6-speed manual, and I ended up getting $3K more than the market average for the automatic equivalent. Same thing when I had a Mazda CX5 with stick shift, sold it for about $1500 more. Usually if you're the guy selling the manual version, you don't have many people to compete with.

Getting back to ICEs, if anything their values will go up for a while when they start getting rarer. The only thing I can see preventing that is if you can't buy gas anymore.

[whatnext]

Trudeau's big lie exposed. An essentially stagnant economy despite (or because of) the mass importation of bodies.

Philip Cross: Canada's worst decade for real economic growth since the 1930s
Causes of our slumping growth are domestic, not external
Author of the article: Philip Cross
Published May 09, 2023

Over the last ten years real GDP per capita grew just 0.8 per cent a year on average in this country, its lowest rate of growth since the 1930s. Total GDP has been growing because of our growing population. But GDP per person has been essentially stagnant. This extended period of slow growth has widened the gap between per capita growth in the United States and Canada, demonstrating that the causes of our slumping growth are domestic, not external.

From the fourth quarter of 2016 to the end of 2022, real per capita GDP rose 11.7 per cent in the U.S., but only 2.8 per cent in Canada. The U.S. outgrew us before, during and after the pandemic. From 2016 to the end of 2019 it outpaced us by 3.5 percentage points. During the worst of the pandemic, in the first half of 2020, per capita real GDP fell 9.7 per cent in the U.S. versus 13.2 per cent here. And since mid-2020, it has grown 15.3 per cent in the U.S. versus only 14.1 per cent here. The Americans’ ability to sustain growth over the past decade shows that our stagnation was not the inevitable result of population aging or the exhaustion of technological innovations — which are hitting them, too — but instead reflects factors under our control.....

https://financialpost.com/opinion/ca...th-since-1930s

[ssiguy]

That article makes a very good point about our ridiculous family reunification policy.

So many of these new Canadians have almost no job or language skills at all. This is why you can meet so many workers, especially in the retail/restaurant sector, that you can hardly understand. They also reduce our productivity because instead of investing in new technologies and the skills of the workers we already have, we just import more cheap labour so those crucial investments don't take place. As for the parents and grandparents, they do nothing for us except bulge our OAS and healthcare costs and take away what little housing we have. In laymen's terms, we are building a bigger pie but dividing in disproportionately more pieces individually leaving us with a smaller slice.

Our immigration system provides a disservice to our economy and quality of life in so many ways and, despite our high levels of it, we are falling further and further behind. Unfortunately, the rest of Canada seems to be following BC economic path over the last 30 years..........just import people and build/flip housing. It is exceptionally unproductive in terms of labour and capitol which is why BC's economy, despite having a 30 year housing boom, has not advanced the real wages of it's residents one bit and has resulted in grotesque levels of social and financial inequality.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

That article makes a very good point about our ridiculous family reunification policy.

So many of these new Canadians have almost no job or language skills at all. This is why you can meet so many workers, especially in the retail/restaurant sector, that you can hardly understand. They also reduce our productivity because instead of investing in new technologies and the skills of the workers we already have, we just import more cheap labour so those crucial investments don't take place. As for the parents and grandparents, they do nothing for us except bulge our OAS and healthcare costs and take away what little housing we have. In laymen's terms, we are building a bigger pie but dividing in disproportionately more pieces individually leaving us with a smaller slice.

Our immigration system provides a disservice to our economy and quality of life in so many ways and, despite our high levels of it, we are falling further and further behind. Unfortunately, the rest of Canada seems to be following BC economic path over the last 30 years..........just import people and build/flip housing. It is exceptionally unproductive in terms of labour and capitol which is why BC's economy, despite having a 30 year housing boom, has not advanced the real wages of it's residents one bit and has resulted in grotesque levels of social and financial inequality.

The article makes a lot of leaps about cause and effect as does your post. The US has much more low skilled immigration than us. The bulk of theirs is in fact. I'm not saying allowing parents and especially grandparents to be supported by taxpayers makes sense but it's not a major factor in our trajectory.

[craner]

A couple articles of national interest:

Industrial Market:
http://https://www.reminetwork.com/articles/canada-u-s-industrial-markets-diverge-in-q1/

Residential Rental Market:
http://https://www.reminetwork.com/articles/canadas-sizzling-hot-apartment-market/

[LightingGuy]

When the bulk of peoples' incomes go towards keeping a roof over their head, they won't have money left over to spend on other things. That is why our economy has stagnated.

[ssiguy]

A wiki report on labour productivity worldwide makes the point quite clearly.

When it comes to productivity in relation to hours worked per-worker, Canada now sits at #16. This is beside #17 Spain, and #18 Italy...........................questions?

[Architype]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

A wiki report on labour productivity worldwide makes the point quite clearly.

When it comes to productivity in relation to hours worked per-worker, Canada now sits at #16. This is beside #17 Spain, and #18 Italy...........................questions?

Canada is less efficient because of its sparse geography, the US is both a larger and more cohesive market, so more efficient.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Architype

Canada is less efficient because of its sparse geography, the US is both a larger and more cohesive market, so more efficient.

Canadian oil sector is less efficient than most other oil producing countries. Oil sands are a very labour intensive and expensive way of extracting oil.

Our agriculture sector is less productive than California. Shorter growing season.

This list goes on......

[theman23]

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[theman23]

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[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

That article makes a very good point about our ridiculous family reunification policy.

As for the parents and grandparents, they do nothing for us except bulge our OAS and healthcare costs and take away what little housing we have. In laymen's terms, we are building a bigger pie but dividing in disproportionately more pieces individually leaving us with a smaller slice.

To qualify for OAS you need to have at least 10 years of residency in Canada as an adult. Nobody just moves here and qualifies for it. And you need 40 years of residency to get the full amount. So if someone has 10 years they get 10/40 or 25% of the full amount. And they can only qualify for GIS if they are receiving OAS.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I did a huge amount of electrical work in my house over the last few years and I can definitely confirm that wiring has gotten insanely expensive.

Changes to the building code (at least here in ON) in the last few years hasn't helped with electrical costs either; safety requirements have gotten a lot more stringent so GFCI and tamper-proof outlets are required in a lot more places than they used to be which cost a lot more. I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of code-flation and copper inflation have together increased the electrical component of residential construction costs by as much as 5x in the last 5 years.

As for the batteries, lithium is actually pretty abundant, but it's often in very low concentrations whenever it is found which makes mining it expensive & energy intensive and generates lots of rock waste. "Rare earth metals" are the same way; they're everywhere but in miniscule concentrations.

One challenge of course with mining is that we need a lot of these minerals for electrification and decarbonization but environmentalists tend to oppose new mining projects; a lot has been said on this topic already.

I follow developments in space very closely and there's a surprising number of experts who believe that mining in space isn't actually that far off. Last year, the US launched the DART mission to experiment with deliberately altering an asteroid's trajectory, ostensibly for planetary defense research. Dr. Pippa Malmgren speculates that one of the real objectives of this concept is actually to direct near-earth asteroids to crash into the moon, where automated refineries could refine ores from the crashed asteroids and export the metals to Earth. Supposedly a lot of refining and metallurgy processes are actually a lot cheaper/more energy efficient in low gravity, and environmental regulations are obviously far less of an issue. Sounds far fetched to me, but maybe that's how we're going to satsify our copper needs this century!

I find that mining gets largely ignored by many environmental interests. I haven't seen opposition to the new mines that have opened in this area. Some First Nations will oppose some projects which will delay something like big the Ring of Fire which involves a number of FNs who don't all agree on everything but most First Nations actually want mines for economic and employment opportunities.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Architype

Canada is less efficient because of its sparse geography, the US is both a larger and more cohesive market, so more efficient.

There are a number of factors that are beyond our control. It's funny that often the same people who complain about us having too few people and too small a market will complain when we increase immigration.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Loco101

There are a number of factors that are beyond our control. It's funny that often the same people who complain about us having too few people and too small a market will complain when we increase immigration.

Who has complained about us having too small a market and too few people? This sounds like the work of your imagination. Citation please.

There are colder and sparser countries higher than us in the productivity rankings. I think Canadians have been conditioned by the Natural Governing Party/oligopolies/laurentian elite or whatever you want to call it to accept mediocrity.

[Architype]

^^ The American market is important to us, but it has more barriers for Canadians than for Americans, and the small Canadian markets are divided among themselves.

... there is greater proximity to a larger number of major cities in the US than in Canada—which could have some synergies for innovation—this factor has not been extensively researched to date.

I believe geography has much to do with it (economies of scale are important), but some also attribute the cause to a number of factors coming together (of course); such as Canadians working fewer hours. Not much is attributed to tax differences, but lack of innovation, research, and investment are seen as factors; also the brain drain of our most educated to the South.

https://businesscouncilab.com/insigh...ductivity-gap/

Could our national ideology (as such) be a contributing factor, making Canadians lazy? Perhaps the protestant work ethic was thrown out long ago with the religion itself. Everyone I've known assumes paid sick days when not even sick are an entitlement and a given. Is that the same in other countries?

[theman23]

Capital investment has always been higher in the USA, which is probably less important in Canada because there is always some schmuck willing to work for less. I mean, we even try to advertise our low wages as our “competitive advantage”. There are also plenty of countries ahead of us who have far bette labour protections.

I think a lot of it is just obliviousness. Witness the multitude of posters on here who seem to think the economy is red hot because their home prices have skyrocketed when we have some of the worst performance metrics and projections in the OECD.

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

Capital investment has always been higher in the USA, which is probably less important in Canada because there is always some schmuck willing to work for less. I mean, we even try to advertise our low wages as our “competitive advantage”. There are also plenty of countries ahead of us who have far bette labour protections.

I think a lot of it is just obliviousness. Witness the multitude of posters on here who seem to think the economy is red hot because their home prices have skyrocketed when we have some of the worst performance metrics and projections in the OECD.

Lets dive deeper. Most productive state in the US:

• Washington
• California
• Colorado
• Massachusetts
• New York
• Texas

Per a McKinsey’s study.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90851174...mckinsey-labor

These six states also supply one-third of the US’s jobs, and 40% of the overall U.S. GDP. Same study also identifies the key things holding the US back is lack of skilled workers, lack of investment and technology adoption.

If we did the same analysis in Canada we would find the most productive areas is Canada are Nunavut and the North West Territories. Followed by Alberta, Saskatchewan and NFLD. Then Ontario and BC tied.

All that tells us is for Canada productivity is associated with aspects of our economy that are more resource extraction based. It is much lower in economies that are manufacturing and services based. If we focused on growing our mining industry and minimized investment in growing tourism or manufacturing our productivity would climb.

Not certain that is a great plan.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Loco101

To qualify for OAS you need to have at least 10 years of residency in Canada as an adult. Nobody just moves here and qualifies for it. And you need 40 years of residency to get the full amount. So if someone has 10 years they get 10/40 or 25% of the full amount. And they can only qualify for GIS if they are receiving OAS.

Unless the country has a social security agreement with Canada, which is a lot of them, including major sources of immigration like India and China.