Winnipeg or Québec - 1 Million

[esquire]

What are the odds that the Hammer could beat both to a million?

Personally I wouldn't mind if Winnipeg's growth slowed down a little. Housing is not a crisis issue but the city does not have great infrastructure to support one million. We still have the road/transit infrastructure of the city of 580,000 that we were for many years... it was so stagnant for so long that I don't think there was much pressure to build to accommodate future growth, unlike say, Alberta in the 70s and 80s when people were streaming in.

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by esquire

What are the odds that the Hammer could beat both to a million?

I'd say low to medium odds based on current trends.
Despite being similar in size, Hamilton sees about half the international migration that Winnipeg sees, while ALSO facing a net drain in interprovincial migration from people leaving Hamilton for other provinces. The only current upside to Hamilton's population growth is decent intra-provincial migration or in other words, people moving from within Ontario to be in Hamilton - likely people priced out of Toronto proper but still want to be within commuting distance.

I can say that as someone who lived in Hamilton for a while, its main draws would be the post-secondary sector and proximity to Toronto without Toronto-level housing prices, but that's about it. But there is a decent chance that latter effect may become more prominent as more and more international migrants seek to locate in the GTA but simply cannot afford to be within Toronto itself.

[Rico Rommheim]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Not really. QC would not be attractive to 95% of the people thinking of immigrating to Canada because it is nearly 100% francophone. This is exacerbated by the new language laws stipulating that they must learn French within six months or GTFO.

Of course, Haitian refugees and economic migrants from sub Saharan French Africa might consider QC, but Montreal is larger, and has a much better established and multicultural diaspora. Most of these people would settle there.

You've pretty much proved my point. The new language laws won't deter any non-francophones away from QC because it was never a draw to them to begin with. Business as usual for QC.

[thurmas]

I think Kitchener Waterloo will eventually pass both QC and Winnipeg.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by esquire

However, I don't have a grasp on what is driving population growth in Quebec City. Where are people moving there from?

It's a highly sought after place to move to within Quebec itself.

Even here in Gatineau it's considered a pretty desirable place to live.

In a way that Ottawa is a bit of a compromise choice for small towners from much of central-eastern Canada who don't want to go to the Big Smoke for all sorts of reasons, Quebec City plays that role in Quebec for people who want to or have to leave Saint-Glinglin but find Montreal unappealling for XYZ, or just too big.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim

You've pretty much proved my point. The new language laws won't deter any non-francophones away from QC because it was never a draw to them to begin with. Business as usual for QC.

Yeah, I can't believe that people don't get this.

"People won't want to move to Quebec City anymore because Bill 96 means everything needs to be only in French there."

Guess what? Most everything was only in French there before Bill 96, anyway.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Not really. QC would not be attractive to 95% of the people thinking of immigrating to Canada because it is nearly 100% francophone. This is exacerbated by the new language laws stipulating that they must learn French within six months or GTFO.

Of course, Haitian refugees and economic migrants from sub Saharan French Africa might consider QC, but Montreal is larger, and has a much better established and multicultural diaspora. Most of these people would settle there.

Based on the numbers cited, the difference in the number of immigrants between Winnipeg and Quebec City was only about 10,000. How anyone can think that Quebec City wouldn't be able to find 10,000 people to move there if it (or the government) really wanted to is beyond me.

Regardless of Bill 96, Montreal's (acknowledged) allure, or any other factors.

[LightingGuy]

Originally Posted by esquire

What are the odds that the Hammer could beat both to a million?

Hamilton and Burlington are basically out of land. They would need to expand the urban boundary for them to grow at a more significant pace.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by Martin Mtl

If an immigrant is considering living in Quebe city, langage laws are irrelevant, since the city is 100% francophone. It’s la CAQ immigration policies that limit the number of immigrants to the province, which could easily find ten of thousands more immigrants willing to come here if they would open the gate, language laws or not.

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yeah, I can't believe that people don't get this.

"People won't want to move to Quebec City anymore because Bill 96 means everything needs to be only in French there."

Guess what? Most everything was only in French there before Bill 96, anyway.

Good point. Bill 101 did most of the damage in 1977. Bill 96 really only effects the existing anglophone minority, and not immigration numbers. La Loi sur la laïcité de l'État might have a bigger impact, though probably negligible overall.

You're right Martin; what will ultimately keep Quebec from beating Winnipeg is the CAQ's immigration policies, unless a future Liberal Government makes some dramatic changes.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger

I'd say low to medium odds based on current trends.
Despite being similar in size, Hamilton sees about half the international migration that Winnipeg sees, while ALSO facing a net drain in interprovincial migration from people leaving Hamilton for other provinces. The only current upside to Hamilton's population growth is decent intra-provincial migration or in other words, people moving from within Ontario to be in Hamilton - likely people priced out of Toronto proper but still want to be within commuting distance.

I can say that as someone who lived in Hamilton for a while, its main draws would be the post-secondary sector and proximity to Toronto without Toronto-level housing prices, but that's about it. But there is a decent chance that latter effect may become more prominent as more and more international migrants seek to locate in the GTA but simply cannot afford to be within Toronto itself.

Hamilton has done a good job at becoming a city that people would actually want to move to in the past ten years, but it’s been counteracted by insane housing prices driven by Toronto spillover. So while Hamilton is undoubtedly getting better, its value per dollar is probably worse than it was back in the ‘00s when most of downtown was mostly Money Marts and abandoned stores, but you could buy a house, even on the more well-kept west side for, like, $250,000.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by LightingGuy

Hamilton and Burlington are basically out of land. They would need to expand the urban boundary for them to grow at a more significant pace.

Burlington is out of land, Hamilton isn't. The province just forced a huge urban boundary expansion on them and a decent chunk of the greenbelt removal areas were in Hamilton itself.

Hamilton's issue is that Burlington is hyper-NIMBY, and despite being basically 1/3 of the CMA, is posting effectively 0% growth numbers with absolutely hilariously low housing starts. It's easily the most NIMBY municipality in the GTHA.

This means that the CMAs growth is forced into Hamilton itself, which has long underperformed on population growth. That's slowly changing, but most greenfield areas in Hamilton aren't particularly accessible to the wider GTA, so I'm not sure how much growth it'll manage to accommodate in the near future.

Hamilton's downtown seems set to have an absolutely massive population boom in the coming years though, so that may help.

We'll have to see.

Either way, yea, I would be surprised if Hamilton beats Winnipeg to 1 million, and regardless, Hamilton's CMA population is partly "tainted" by it's GTA influence. Burlington is more of a Toronto suburb than a Hamilton suburb these days..


I suspect Winnipeg, QC, and Hamilton will all pass the 1 million mark relatively close to each other, but with Winnipeg in front. And none of them will get there for another decade or so.

The one wildcard is potential additions to the CMA areas. Hamilton has Caledonia as one prime CMA addition, which would likely already be in the CMA area adding another ~15-20k to population if it weren't located in Haldimand County, a huge single-tier municipality which stretches over half the Niagara Peninsula. Places like Beamsville or Smithville could get pulled into the CMA at some point as well.

[harls]

Originally Posted by esquire

Personally I wouldn't mind if Winnipeg's growth slowed down a little.

Same. Places don't need to grow to become 'great'.

*awaits ssp bombardment*

[Martin Mtl]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Good point. Bill 101 did most of the damage in 1977. Bill 96 really only effects the existing anglophone minority, and not immigration numbers. La Loi sur la laïcité de l'État might have a bigger impact, though probably negligible overall.

You're right Martin; what will ultimately keep Quebec from beating Winnipeg is the CAQ's immigration policies, unless a future Liberal Government makes some dramatic changes.

The change is coming from the CAQ itself. Legault and cie are already back tracking from their campaign promises about immigration caps. As for the Liberal, forget it, the party is pretty much dead.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by harls

Who do you think will reach the one million mark first? and why?

What was you intention picking Quebec City and Winnipeg? Would you be ok with adding Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo to the mix (thread title and poll)?

Don't think I would add suburban municipalities that might reach a million before any of the above. It's just not as fun.

[harls]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

What was you intention picking Quebec City and Winnipeg? Would you be ok with adding Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo to the mix (thread title and poll)?

Don't think I would add suburban municipalities that might reach a million before any of the above. It's just not as fun.

Well J.OT13, you know me - and I'm a dude from Manitoba living in Québec. And look at the traffic it is generating for Dylan!

[thurmas]

Winnipeg might reach 1 million in 5 years. Manitoba is adding 33,000 a year now and easily 20k plus of those move to Winnipeg. I believe cma is hovering around 890 k as of right now based on Manitoba population currently at 1,438,000.

[vanatox]

Originally Posted by Martin Mtl

The change is coming from the CAQ itself. Legault and cie are already back tracking from their campaign promises about immigration caps. As for the Liberal, forget it, the party is pretty much dead.

Yes, they finally realized they had no choice given current needs and the fact that they don't really have the choice if the province wants to keep up with the rest of the country and its excessive growth. They will increase the number of people allowed annually significantly but the big change is that now every single people immigrating here will have to speak French. And they will have no problem finding those peoples.

With these changes I expect that Quebec City immigration numbers will increase significantly.

And yes, the liberals are dead, dead, dead.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Good point. Bill 101 did most of the damage in 1977. Bill 96 really only effects the existing anglophone minority, and not immigration numbers. La Loi sur la laïcité de l'État might have a bigger impact, though probably negligible overall.

You're right Martin; what will ultimately keep Quebec from beating Winnipeg is the CAQ's immigration policies, unless a future Liberal Government makes some dramatic changes.

I don't even think that Bill 96 will hurt Montreal that much, since immigration patterns for the city have shifted a lot to parts of the world where something like this is less of an issue.

Most immigrants to Canada were writing off Montreal because it's "French" long before Bill 96.

Ultimately if there is any barrier to immigration-related population growth it's due to the CAQ government's quotas.

If they wanted 50,000 then they could find 50,000. If it was 75,000 we'd easily get 75,000. If it was 200,000 we'd have 200,000 people coming here next year.

[Martin Mtl]

Originally Posted by Acajack

If they wanted 50,000 then they could find 50,000. If it was 75,000 we'd easily get 75,000. If it was 200,000 we'd have 200,000 people coming here next year.

Exactly.

[Kilgore Trout]

Quebec City has the lowest unemployment rate of any major Canadian city and, not only is it a major magnet for migrants from within Quebec (more so than Montreal), it's attracting more and more immigrants too. It's notably more diverse than it used to be.

I think people in this thread are underestimating how many potential immigrants speak French and don't necessarily want to live in Montreal.