The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[mmmatt]

Added stats on the "Big 3" Malls under a new heading of Retail...Cadillac Fairview recently came out with a beautiful new website filled with lots of nice graphics and interesting stats...so I figured I would bring the local highlights.

[Taeolas]

Nice timing with those mall stats, just as 2 of the malls change ownership.

Should be interesting to see how they change in the coming years I'm sure.

[mmmatt]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Nice timing with those mall stats, just as 2 of the malls change ownership.

Should be interesting to see how they change in the coming years I'm sure.

Unfortunately those stats are rare to come across so I'm not sure if we will be able to see the change over time...thats one thing that annoys me about statscan...no regional retail sales figures.

[q12]

Here is a scary statistic for you:

New Brunswick's jobless rates jumps to 11.6%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...-rate-950.html

CBC News Posted: Nov 2, 2012 9:59 AM AT Last Updated: Nov 2, 2012 10:04 AM AT

New Brunswick's unemployment rate surged to 11.6 per cent in October after 600 jobs were lost last month, according to Statistics Canada.

The monthly labour force survey showed there were 2,100 fewer full-time jobs last month, while 1,600 part-time jobs were added. Overall, there were 600 fewer jobs in October, according to Statistics Canada.

October's unemployment rate of 11.6 per cent was up from 11 per cent in September.

And some more bad news:

New Brunswick's deficit nearly doubles to $356M

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-br...pdate-239.html

CBC News Posted: Nov 1, 2012 2:51 PM AT Last Updated: Nov 1, 2012 7:17 PM AT

Finance Minister Blaine Higgs blames extra deficit on shrinking revenue

New Brunswick’s projected deficit has almost doubled to $356 million because of falling government revenues, Finance Minister Blaine Higgs announced on Thursday.

[RyeJay]

Scary, but expected. The province should celebrate with a second Moncton High School relocation -- to Fredericton.

A good afterparty would be another round of business park expansion proposals, to ensure the downtowns of 'The Big 3' never grow. (Don't forget even more highways!)

If the party bill can't be paid: just blame the francophones.

[MonctonRad]

It's not all doom and gloom q12, the unemployment rate in Moncton fell to 7.1% from 7.2% and remains below the national average, but thanks for your concern.

In fact, since the Moncton economic region includes all of southeastern NB, including rural Kent County, I would wager that the unemployment rate for the Moncton CMA is considerably less than 7.1%, more likely in the 5.0-5.5% range.

The big issue is the stubborn provincial deficit, thanks mostly to the disastrous Shawn Graham government. To slay this beast will require reigning in government spending which will in turn mean even less economic growth. It's a vicious circle.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's not all doom and gloom q12, the unemployment rate in Moncton fell to 7.1% from 7.2% and remains below the national average, but thanks for your concern.

Dear Lord, MonctonRad, seriously?!...

A O.1% difference in one city...

The province is saved...

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The big issue is the stubborn provincial deficit, thanks mostly to the disastrous Shawn Graham government. To slay this beast will require reigning in government spending which will in turn mean even less economic growth. It's a vicious circle.

The Alward PCs are contributing as well. To claim it is "mostly (because of) the disastrous Shawn Graham government" is an interesting hypothesis.

It is also a fallacy that a reduction of government spending slows growth, especially when a balanced approach is taken. Basically, this province needs to get its priorities in order.

- Stop with the absurd amount of corporate welfare.
- Stop sprawling as though you miss the 1960's.
- Implement tax reform for all municipalities. If the suburbanites care at all about saving their jobs, then they need to pay more in taxes to help repair the damage they helped to create by bloating New Brunswick's infrastructure debt.

And most importantly, stop obsessing over retail updates, adopt critical thinking, and start talking about substantive issues.

[Nashe]

Eww. That's significantly worse than the also-pretty-bad NS deficit of $249M!

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

Eww. That's significantly worse than the also-pretty-bad NS deficit of $249M!

Yes, NB's deficit is more than $100M larger, unfortunately. Nova Scotia needs major improvements as well.
Halifax's unemployment is doing well though: down to 5.4%.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

Halifax's unemployment is doing well though: down to 5.4%.

Looks like all 3 cities (M, SJ's, Hal) are headed in the right direction in that regard, at least.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

Looks like all 3 cities (M, SJ's, Hal) are headed in the right direction in that regard, at least.

I certainly hope their unemployment rates drop in the long-term

My broader concerns include provincial debt, however. With climbing debt, investments become less likely -- such as Moncton's downtown events centre.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by RyeJay

My broader concerns include provincial debt, however. With climbing debt, investments become less likely -- such as Moncton's downtown events centre.

Yeah, nobody wants to see what happened to the Hali stadium happen here.

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

Yeah, nobody wants to see what happened to the Hali stadium happen here.

Halifax's most recent stadium attempt was never close to becoming reality, since the municipal government wasn't able to come together in time for federal funding. Even to this day, the city still doesn't have land chosen, nor concepts finalised.

In the context of Moncton's events centre, federal funding in unlikely to happen because Moncton's downtown is accelerating its de-centralisation; the most recent examples are the MHS relocation and Trinity Power Centre expansions. It doesn't make business sense for the feds to throw money at the construction of a downtown events centre, only to have to subsidise it to remain open in subsequent years...

Though I'm hopeful these outcomes will change, I don't think an events centre in Moncton, nor a stadium in Halifax, are likely in the near future. Both provinces has unsatisfactory amounts of debt.

[Nashe]

Hmmm... I think you give the Feds too much credit on studying that kind of thing. They've blown money on longer shots before.

Oh well, I guess time will tell then in whether or not Moncton can get out of the starting blocks on that project and whether Halifax can get off the couch with theirs.

[Nashe]

Back on topic... nice interactive graph:

http://www.cbc.ca/nb/interactives/employment/

Holy seasonal influences, Batman. Look at those peaks and valleys.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Vorkuta

Looks like all 3 cities (M, SJ's, Hal) are headed in the right direction in that regard, at least.

Unemployment in Saint John dropped slightly as it grew in Fredericton-Oromocto. Fredericton still has the lowest in NB at 7.8%.

Campbellton-Miramichi went up to 16.1% from 14.6%. Western Newfoundland and Northern NB have the highest unemployment rates in the country. What's most important is to factor in participation rates, as well.

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's not all doom and gloom q12, the unemployment rate in Moncton fell to 7.1% from 7.2% and remains below the national average, but thanks for your concern.

I understand Moncton is doing well. My concern is Nova Scotia's neighboring provinces are on their way to record HIGH unemployment numbers which is not good for anyone. NB's unemployment rate has been steadily increasing from a low of 6.9% in 2007 to 11.6% today (Highest since 2003). And Nova Scotia has its own unemployment rate to worry about too.

Obviously the Moncton/Halifax Corridor is the place to go in the Maritimes for jobs right now.

Here are the numbers for the Maritimes (unemployed/Labour force).

- Nova Scotia 46,200/503,600 9.17%
- New Brunswick 45,800/395,200 11.59%
- Prince Edward Island 9,600/81,900 11.72%

The Maritimes combined as one province:
101,600/980,700 10.36%



This is the number together as the Maritimes we want to get below 10%

[RyeJay]

Originally Posted by q12

I understand Moncton is doing well.

Moncton is certainly functioning; however, all of its growth has been unsustainable as it has been suburban, resulting in higher infrastructural and public service debts versus any of its new revenues generated.

To be frank, culturally, I very much prefer Moncton to Halifax. I love how Canadian the entire Codiac area is, with an historical blend of French and English that you simply cannot find anywhere else -- not even in Central Canada!! Chiac, for instance, is a uniquely Canadian dialect of both languages, not found anywhere else in the world.

I want the Moncton area to become stronger competition for Halifax. JOBS and the obtainment of new industries is only part of the equation to growth. Cities must also be appealing to the lifestyles of today's youth: what they are demanding, and what they can afford. I see this as being less viable for the Moncton area in the future because its sprawled infrastructure leaves it compromised to developing adequate core developments -- residentially, commercially, and in terms of forms of entertainment (with suitable public transit options) -- to attract younger working demographics. A vast majority of Moncton's youth simply aren't staying in the area. This slows municipal growth, which then slows the attraction of new industries and jobs.

Originally Posted by q12

Here are the numbers for the Maritimes (unemployed/Labour force).

- Nova Scotia 46,200/503,600 9.17%
- New Brunswick 45,800/395,200 11.59%
- Prince Edward Island 9,600/81,900 11.72%

The Maritimes combined as one province:
101,600/980,700 10.36%



This is the number together as the Maritimes we want to get below 10%

Exactly! We all benefit when all provinces are doing well!

I wish the towns and villages of the Maritimes could have their developments directed inward to benefit of the municipalities in which they exist. I would be in favour of some form of stimulus spending for municipalities that still have potential to attract youth. Unfortunately, most people with whom I've spoken about non-cities in the Maritimes seem to carry the attitude that towns and villages in the entire region are basically a lost cause and it's only a matter of time before they die out.

[mmmatt]

With the busiest part of the construction season wrapping up I decided to do a table...this is more of a Nationwide table...but it shows a bit where we stand in the Atlantic Region.

I did up some per capita numbers for Building Permit Values Jan-Aug 2012. (just came out today)

Basically it shows how much money was spent on construction per person in the respective CMAs. I like to do these types of tables because it breaks things down to a comparable level to see how a city is doing compared to another regardless of size.

1 - Saskatoon - 3510
2 - Calgary - 3092
3 - Regina - 2845
4 - St. Johns - 2792 ------------(550M$ / 197,000)
5 - Edmonton - 2731
6 - Vancouver - 2100
7 - Toronto - 1953
8 - Hamilton - 1642
9 - Moncton - 1640 -------------(227M$ / 139,000)
10 - Saguenay - 1624
11 - Oshawa - 1620
12 - Thunder Bay - 1610
13 - Halifax - 1606 --------------(627M$ / 390,000)
14 - Sherbrooke - 1591
15 - London - 1500
16 - Ottawa - 1477
17 - Kitchener-Waterloo - 1476
18 - Guelph - 1452
19 - Trois-Rivieres - 1450
20 - Winnipeg - 1396
21 - Montreal - 1336
22 - Windsor - 1287
23 - Victoria - 1250
24 - Kelowna - 1180
25 - Kingston - 1119
26 - Brantford - 1113
27 - Quebec - 1106
28 - Peterborough - 1061
29 - Saint John - 936 -----------(120M$ /128,000)
30 - Barrie - 878
31 - St. Catharines-Niagara - 849
32 - Sudbury - 784
33 - Abbotsford - 693

Biggest surprise for me is St. Johns...they are on fire right now! Up there with all the western oil boom towns

[MonctonRad]

Indeed. St. John's is actually in spitting distance of Halifax in terms of absolute dollar value for building permits issued, despite the fact that Halifax is twice as large. Halifax had better watch out!

It's good to see three of the four Atlantic CMA's well in the top half of all Canadian CMA's in terms of building permit value per capita.

The larger cities in the region are all doing well. Now, if only we could kick start the rural hinterland as well.......