Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrisforpm
I agree that these will be the ridings to watch and will decide on the government. Here’s my opinion:
Winnipeg:
Seine River (PC) - The area lost a lot of its traditional NDP base around the mall and picked up more southern areas near the perimeter.
Southdale (NDP) - Close last time, Gordon has a high profile and the NDP will spend a lot of resources to oust her. The riding has taken on more of the blue collar areas of Windsor Park and lost its traditional PC base in Royalwood.
McPhillips (NDP) - Nail bitter last election. This time with the NDP polling much higher, this will be the most likely urban riding to flip.
Radisson (NDP) - Has been a historically traditional NDP riding. It went PC when they swept the NDP from power. Managed to stay Tory in 2019. This time with an unpopular incumbent and NDP polling higher, it shouldn’t even be close.
Rossmere (Toss-up) - This one is tough. Could go either way.
Assiniboia (Toss-up) - See above.
Kirkfield Park (PC) - Klein is a retail politician and a constituency guy. He has a good ground game. I say PC hold.
Fort Richmond (PC) - Last time the Liberals split the centre-left vote). If the Libs field another strong candidate, I could see the Tories holding it by default.
Riel (NDP) - Despite Squires being a high ranking minister, this riding is the most likely of the south Winnipeg ones to flip.
Waverly (PC) - Traditional Tory leaning area. Suburban and higher income.
Lagimodiere (PC) - See above.
Kildonan-River East (PC) - This riding has seen a large population boom of new, expensive neighborhoods near the Perimeter. Bonnie Mitchelson managed to hold it even when the Tories lost every seat north of the Assiniboine River. Candidacy will matter this time.
Rural Ridings:
Selkirk (NDP) - Strong candidate, traditional urban NDP riding with no PC incumbent.
Dauphin (PC) - Rural MB has shifted more to the right in recent years. The PC’s are still polling well outside of WPG.
Brandon East (NDP) - City splits, with the eastern part going back to its NDP roots.
Brandon West (PC) - It’ll be close but I think the Tories eek out a win here.
Springfield (PC) - Especially if Schuler runs again. Traditional PC rural riding with ex-urbanites in Oakbank who tend to sway centre right.
Curious to see what everyone else thinks. This election will certainly be interesting. I have a feeling that it’ll be close. I would be happy with a minority government of either party with the Liberals holding the balance of power.
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*Andrew Smith in Lagimodiere should win his seat in a walk. Great grass roots MLA and hard worker.
* A. Gordon in Southdale will be tough to hold.
* Jon Reyes in Waverley is not unpopular, and probably the most well liked MLA in government. Raises a lot of money for the party through grass roots fundraisers.
Stephenson will hold her seat.
Obby Khan and Klein should retain their seats.
Ron Schuler should win. Has been around for ever.
Add in a few others and the PC’s may surprise.
The NDP has no bench at all and no stars in the group. Will people vote for a Wab? It remains to be seen.