Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[MonctonRad]

Yes, the dual bureaucracies that exist to support duality is the problem.

I agree, the number of doctors, nurses, hospital beds, teachers and classrooms would be the same regardless of whether or not duality in fact existed, but we could certainly reduce the number of deputy ministers, ADM's and mid level management by operating the system as one.

Infrastructure however could be rationalized to an extent. In smaller communities, why have both an anglophone and a francophone school? Why not have a single school with anglophone and francophone wings? If there are two schools in a small community which are both half filled, why not combine the classes into a single facility and close the surplus building? If you do this, you might also be able to cut bussing costs as well, with both anglophone and francophone students on the same bus!!!

There are areas of overlap in health care as well, especially in Moncton. The Dumont seems to feel that it's their divine mission to provide all services to every single francophone in the province regardless of the fact that these services already exist across the street at the Moncton Hospital. I could tell you many tales of the back rooms shenanigans of the elite at the Dumont Hospital over the last 20 years or so as they have tried (with varying success) to create an empire of their own. This enterprise of theirs has cost many millions of taxpayer dollars. Money that we couldn't (and can't) afford. The only way to stop this travesty from continuing to happen in the future is to create a special health care region in the southeast with jurisdiction over both the Dumont and Moncton hospitals. There would still be two hospitals, but only a single administration and each hospital would concentrate on their area of expertise. There wouldn't be less health care (the Moncton region would still have about 800 hospital beds), it would just be delivered in a more cost efficient less bureaucratic manner with less overlap.

NB can't afford duality. We can afford to provide services in both languages. We just have to eliminate the silos...........

[Trevor3]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Yes, the dual bureaucracies that exist to support duality is the problem.

I agree, the number of doctors, nurses, hospital beds, teachers and classrooms would be the same regardless of whether or not duality in fact existed, but we could certainly reduce the number of deputy ministers, ADM's and mid level management by operating the system as one.

Infrastructure however could be rationalized to an extent. In smaller communities, why have both an anglophone and a francophone school? Why not have a single school with anglophone and francophone wings? If there are two schools in a small community which are both half filled, why not combine the classes into a single facility and close the surplus building? If you do this, you might also be able to cut bussing costs as well, with both anglophone and francophone students on the same bus!!!

There are areas of overlap in health care as well, especially in Moncton. The Dumont seems to feel that it's their divine mission to provide all services to every single francophone in the province regardless of the fact that these services already exist across the street at the Moncton Hospital. I could tell you many tales of the back rooms shenanigans of the elite at the Dumont Hospital over the last 20 years or so as they have tried (with varying success) to create an empire of their own. This enterprise of theirs has cost many millions of taxpayer dollars. Money that we couldn't (and can't) afford. The only way to stop this travesty from continuing to happen in the future is to create a special health care region in the southeast with jurisdiction over both the Dumont and Moncton hospitals. There would still be two hospitals, but only a single administration and each hospital would concentrate on their area of expertise. There wouldn't be less health care (the Moncton region would still have about 800 hospital beds), it would just be delivered in a more cost efficient less bureaucratic manner with less overlap.

NB can't afford duality. We can afford to provide services in both languages. We just have to eliminate the silos...........

This is more or less the same way that I've seen New Brunswick operate in the 2 years I've been here. It's as if they have taken the bilingual concept and decided the best way to do it is by operating two provinces, one in each language. Obviously that's going to fail.

An example of how to save costs is, as you mentioned, readily available in the school system. In Newfoundland we had denominational schooling up until 1997, so my little hometown had 3 school systems - Catholic, Pentecost, Protestant. In the 1970s government built 1 school to replace the 3 elementary schools, with each denomination getting it's own wing. I believe there was 1 principal overseeing the entire building and a vice-principal assigned to each denominational wing. It worked well for about 10 years until the Catholics outgrew their side.

There's no reason NB couldn't replicate such a model for itself, certainly in areas with a high proportion of both languages such as around Moncton and increasingly Fredericton.

[JHikka]

A lot of people's distrust in the dual/bilingual government system stems from language requirements where they're not entirely warranted. I'm sure we've all heard stories of people being turned down for government/public service jobs for not being bilingual, or in my case not being bilingual enough. Here in Ontario they regionalize language services whereby French is only offered in areas where there is a sustainable French population (North, Ottawa-area). Everywhere else is de facto English unless you request those services. Certainly New Brunswick could attempt something like this so that the poor SNB employees in St. Stephen or Woodstock don't necessarily have to speak French as a requirement for entry-level positions.

[JHikka]

No mention of Moncton Mayor George Leblanc running for the Liberals in the next Federal election? You guys are slacking

[L'homard]

I, for one, was shocked! ;-)
Any rumours out there who else will challenge for the Liberal nom? George and Ginette
are the only two names I have heard rumblngs about.

[MonctonRad]

Oh, I was thinking of something to post, but I was going to save it for the "Events Centre" thread (which I now think is in serious jeopardy).

Stay tuned.

[Steelcowboy]

What makes me mad about that is, the province won't invest in this project but, if the events center ever gets built..they'll be the first in line to come and take any taxes from it...so the bigger we make it, the more the province will get. Unless I have that wrong?

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Steelcowboy

What makes me mad about that is, the province won't invest in this project but, if the events center ever gets built..they'll be the first in line to come and take any taxes from it...so the bigger we make it, the more the province will get. Unless I have that wrong?

But that is true for anything built in the province.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by OliverD

But that is true for anything built in the province.

Do divided highways pay more tax than non-divided highways?

[pierremoncton]

Rad, do you have news to share on the events centre?

And did anyone here watch the State of the Province address? What did you guys think?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

Rad, do you have news to share on the events centre?

No, I don't know anything for sure but I find the silence on this file absolutely frightening.........

Here are my suspicions:

- Although Premier Gallant and most of the cabinet heavyweights are from southeastern NB, they are not from Moncton and are instead concentrated in Dieppe and Shediac. The sole provincial cabinet minister from Moncton is Cathy Rogers, who is primarily a social justice activist. I have it on pretty good inside authority that she is not a supporter of the events centre and instead would like to see the provincial money go to soup kitchens and feminist groups rather than this vital piece of civic infrastructure. She should be the leading booster for this project in cabinet as she is the minister for Moncton, but her support is in fact tepid at best.

- At the same time, Mayor George LeBlanc (the primary booster of this project) has announced his candidacy for federal office. If he is chosen as the Liberal candidate for Moncton/Dieppe/Riverview, then he will take a leave of absence as mayor of the city. Without him at the helm, this will embolden the opponents of the events centre within city council (Councillors Hicks and Bourgeois) who will use this opportunity to question the value of this project and what this might mean for civic tax rates.

- Politically the events centre is a hot potato for the Gallant government. Even if they wanted to support the project, they would want to time the announcement so that they would get maximum benefit for the federal and provincial Liberal parties. If they announced funding now, this instead might make our current MP (Robert Goguen - a Tory) look good as he has already promised federal support. The Gallant government might therefore want to wait until after the federal election, (assuming George Leblanc wins the seat), announce then and give George the credit for securing the financing. Brian Gallant is in tight with Dominic LeBlanc, and I'm sure Dominic wants to do whatever it takes to sabotage Goguen and support George LeBlanc instead.

- As such, I'm worried that for political reasons, the Gallant government will hold off for another year before committing funding. By that time however, Moncton will have another mayor, who very well might be Brian Hicks (he has expressed interest). If Hicks is mayor, then the events centre will suddenly cease to be a civic priority.

- So, when both the feds and the province are finally ready to commit, the city might be in a position of having acute cold feet. Regardless, if the file is placed on the back burner for that long, the RFP's from the preferred contractors will no longer be valid and the process will therefore have to start all over again. Who knows if they will still be interested in the process at that time, especially after already having wasted millions of dollars the first time around.

- The whole thing therefore might just fall through and Moncton will instead end up having a hole in the ground on Main Street for the next 10 years before anything happens.

Geez I hate politics........

[Fischbob]

Welcome to the 'Our City's Signature, Game-Changing Downtown Development is in Seemingly Endless Limbo' Club, Moncton! It's nice to have some company down here.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

And did anyone here watch the State of the Province address? What did you guys think?

All style and no substance.

[pierremoncton]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

All style and no substance.

Agreed: a load of fluff and a dash of bullshit. However, I won't disown this government just yet; their willingness to involve the populace is positive. They want to step back and assess everything, so there's potential, but they may end up blowing it by waiting too long to act.

The only argument I have with your assessment of the events centre is that who's in charge as mayor is of little consequence if the majority of councillors are in favour. I'd be more worried about the Conservatives getting back in power in October. The left worries you; the right worries me: I don't trust Goguen (nor his puppetmaster) one bit, and I can see him pulling away from his promise on account of a new mayor not being in favour. At least we can always count on him mailing his monthly propaganda pamphlet on schedule.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

I'd be more worried about the Conservatives getting back in power in October. The left worries you; the right worries me: I don't trust Goguen (nor his puppetmaster) one bit, and I can see him pulling away from his promise on account of a new mayor not being in favour. At least we can always count on him mailing his monthly propaganda pamphlet on schedule.

Oh, I'm not an arch conservative. I have Tory leanings but I've voted for all parties on different occasions (even NDP and Green). In fact, in one election I voted for two different parties at the same time! This was back in the 1970's in PEI when they still had dual ridings. I really liked one of the Liberal candidates, so I voted for him while casting my second ballot for the Tory.

Personally, I think Harper is getting a bit long in the tooth and it is nearly time for a change. He has also been no friend to the east coast. Trudeau worries me a bit because I'm not sure he is experienced enough to handle the economy and I think he is a bit impulsive.

What frightens the bejesus out of me is the thought of a Liberal sweep in Atlantic Canada while Harper ends up winning the election - entirely possible. If this happens then God help us all. We won't have a seat at the table any more.

[pierremoncton]

Thought I'd move this to its proper thread. I've said it before, but here it goes again: I think it's important to share our concerns & ideas with the government. Our new government has said repeatedly that they're looking for our suggestions, but I assume that they give little credence to the thousands of simplistics complaints they must've received from dimwits. It's important that intelligent, active members of society share their opinions as well, instead of cynically dismissing this exercise's potential impact. Whether or not I agree with everything that's written on this forum, I think we need smart people to get involved.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

AFAIK, the top marginal rate for peak income earner in NB will now be higher than any other jurisdiction in North America, even Quebec. Initially Premier Gallant was going to consider an "abatement" for the highest income earners to keep this from happening (mostly because of the bad optics of this), but it would appear that he has decided against this course. This is unfortunate, because the optics are indeed bad and I have no doubt that our competing jurisdictions will make note of this fact with glee when trying to lure enterprises with high income earning employees to their cities.

I can see it now. Let's say Microsoft was looking for a new high tech development centre to service their operations in Canada. Let's say (for arguments sake) that the final two competitors to serve as the host city for this centre were Moncton and Halifax (highly unlikely I know).

I'm sure Halifax would extoll all their considerable advantages, such as the cluster of universities in the city which could serve as research partners for Microsoft, or the quality of Halifax's hospitals in terms of serving the health care needs of the company's employees . Any economic development officer worth their salt employed by the city of Halifax would also look at the wage profile of the workers to be employed by Microsoft in their new enterprise. Let's say that 10% of the employees would make more than $250k per year. You can bet your bottom booty that Halifax would waste no time pointing out that Moncton resides in "the highest tax jurisdiction in North America". This might be enough to push Microsoft over the edge in terms of making their choice as to a new location. This is not hyperbole, analysts look at these things all the time!

To be clear, I am not necessarily anti tax myself. We need to be able to pay for the services we provide as a society. What I am against is NB becoming an outlier within the continental tax system.

Another thing to keep in mind is that many high income individuals are self employed and are responsible for their own health care and retirement expenses. Amongst the professional class, they also often have compressed income earning years, frequently not starting until their mid 30's. In addition, professionals often have a decade or more of university expenses to pay for at the outset of their careers, as well as start up costs for their businesses. The ability to earn a good income to pay for all this is frequently better in other places rather than the Maritimes. It's therefore tough to attract these people now. If you throw a high tax rate on top of all these other variables, it can suddenly become even more difficult to attract the best quality talent to the region and make them stay.

I can't disagree with you there, but let's say that it is a new franchise which really takes off. Goji might be an example. they are franchising nationwide now. Let's say they become really successful. The provincial tax rate might have a bearing on what happens down the road. Now, I'm sure that Goji's must be incorporated and a lot of the income is therefore sheltered but the new tax regime proposed by the government might influence when and how money is withdrawn from the corporation for personal income and expenses. In order to minimize these taxes, at some point the owners might choose to live elsewhere more appealing. These are valid concerns. NB risks bleeding high income earners from the province and once these people are lost from the system we will all be the poorer for it. You could tax 25,000 high income earners at 18% but if you increase the rate to 25% and 15,000 of these individuals move elsewhere then you will end up with less money flowing to your coffers than if you had stayed with the lower tax rate. These things do happen!!

Again I agree with you. There is pettiness on both sides, but it seems to have been a particular hallmark of Brian Gallant so far. We need more stability in government as a province, but I am fearful that we are in a new regime of one term governments that will be very tough to break. Our last few premiers have been intellectual pygmies. It's time we had another McKenna or Hatfield.

I agree that the optics of having the highest income tax rate on the rich are not good, which is why I hope others follow suit. Before this increase, NB's tax rate on high earners was significantly lower than Nova Scotia's. Provinces should not be competing with each other; this race to the bottom leads to governments scrambling to cover essential services, and to a widening of the gap between the rich and the poor. Instead, as many provinces as possible should join together and cooperate on increasing both corporate and income taxes (on high earners), which would give power back to the working class. For the record, I don't "hate the rich". Private capital is fine, but not at the expense of the general well-being of society as a whole. I actually expected tax increases to my comfortable, sub-$100k income, and I would've been ok with it.

Other thoughts on the budget:

I think that the gas tax increase is a mistake; there should've been an HST increase and a new carbon tax instead. I'm not against the gas tax increase because it's going to cost me much (probably $10 a year), and I'm not for a carbon tax because I think it has any environment benefits (it's useless unless there's also an emissions cap).

Instead, I think that an HST increase would've leveled the field with Nova Scotia, which is better for the region as a whole. An HST increase would also have been an indirect luxury tax on the rich; people at the lower end of the income spectrum spend less on taxable goods, so there's less of an impact on them. An increase to the HST would further have negated any necessity for a gas tax increase.

I support a carbon tax because it would impose an inescapable tax, acting as a filter before "certain corporations" move their profits offshore. Of course, there are other, more simple ways of achieving the same effect, but no political party ever has the courage.

Further, there was no way the province was going to commit anything to the Moncton events centre. With austerity being imposed everywhere else, what a crazy juxtaposition that would've been. Truthfully, I think it makes no sense to commit money to downtowns unless we actually start focusing and density and efficiency in general. Artificially revitalizing downtowns is a lost cause if we also build schools on the outskirts and move prisons to the middle of nowhere. It's ridiculous that, when we look at school occupancy, rural schools compare to central schools in our biggest cities, and this needs to change. Investing in the events centre and other similar projects in other cities only makes sense if we stop building horizontally and instead encourage growth in our poorly-used downtowns where infrastructure already exists. I hope that this government sees this and acts accordingly, but I would not be surprised if we still got the money in a year or two, without the requisite focus on using our resources effectively.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by pierremoncton

I think that the gas tax increase is a mistake; there should've been an HST increase and a new carbon tax instead. I'm not against the gas tax increase because it's going to cost me much (probably $10 a year), and I'm not for a carbon tax because I think it has any environment benefits (it's useless unless there's also an emissions cap).

Instead, I think that an HST increase would've leveled the field with Nova Scotia, which is better for the region as a whole. An HST increase would also have been an indirect luxury tax on the rich; people at the lower end of the income spectrum spend less on taxable goods, so there's less of an impact on them. An increase to the HST would further have negated any necessity for a gas tax increase.

What i've heard is the Liberals spared the HST increase this budget because of the impending Federal Election this fall and the impact it would have had on Federal Liberal candidates. If that is the case then don't be too surprised by an HST hike in 2016.

Agreed on the gas tax. I've read somewhere that the provincial gas tax alone accounts for roughly 25% of the current cost of gas (so roughly 0.25/litre).

[MonctonRad]

I agree with an HST hike. It's the quickest, easiest and simplest way to slay the deficit. A 2% increase (which would equal the rate in NS) would raise $250M, which is more than halfway to eliminating the deficit. It's a no brainer. The rest of the deficit could be dealt with by additional belt tightening and by growing the economy.

I agree with JHikka, I would not be at all surprised if the only reason that this hike to the HST was not done this year is because of the upcoming federal election. I also suspect that the main reason why provincial funding for the downtown Moncton events centre was not committed is also because of the federal election. If the province committed now, it would only make the incumbent Conservative MP Robert Goguen look good since he could claim to be the "white knight" delivering matching federal money. I find this type of politicking appalling and infuriating. This would not happen in the private sector and I'm sure that the potential developers find this all rather infuriating. I know I do.

[J_Murphy]

So Newfoundland and Labrador just released a proposal to reduce the number of seats in the house from 48 down to 40.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfou...icts-1.3027902

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by OUIR@random

What's happening to our society, the rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer! No, 95% of New Brunswickers won't shed a tear for the recent tax increase for the richest people of this province.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

As for the comment regarding the richest earners, I remain convinced that if the trend continues and NB remains the highest tax jurisdiction on the continent, that our wealthy retirees will leave the province and that it will be damned difficult to find qualified people to move here to replace them. We will only end up shooting ourselves in the foot.

There is nothing wrong with a progressive tax system, but it should be fair for all, and it should be remembered that far more taxes can be raised though consumption taxes instead. There really aren't that many rich people out there. The recent changes to the tax system will raise at most $80M in new revenue. An increase of 2% on the HST however would have raised over $250M. It's simple math really.

Originally Posted by OliverD

I thought that the new income tax brackets were only going to raise $30M.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You may be right, I was only going off the top of my head. The $80M figure might have been for all new taxes combined. The $250M figure for an HST increase however is correct, and would take have taken care of about 60% of our deficit right there. It's the first place the government should have looked!!

Originally Posted by OUIR@random

Yes, but raising sales tax (which I'm not really against) would upset most of the working class and low income earners, this Liberal government doesn't want that. Sales tax penalize minimum wage earners since sales tax is considered a regressive tax and doesn't change much of anything for high income earners. So again low income earners would be most penalized by this. New Brunswick might just be the most taxed juridiction in NA for the rich, well NB is possibly the most borderline bankrupt province or state in North America, so something needs to be done and the poorest people in this province can't give more of the very little they have left. BTW I'm not a low income earner or a high income earner, I'm right there in the middle, but I just like to have a non biased view on this topic, because as New Brunswickers we are all stuck in this financial mess together.

This is my last comment on this topic which is not a Retail Discussion per se.

I'm going to continue this discussion in the politics thread (where it belongs):

OliverD was quite right in terms of how much money the new tax rates on high income individuals will actually bring in to the provincial coffers. There was a thoughtful letter to the editor in today's T&T that provided the actual numbers.

The new tax regime will affect 11,130 NB taxpayers, and will generate a grand total of $27M in additional personal income taxes to the provincial government. This is a paltry amount, especially given the expected $450M deficit and pales in comparison to the $250M that could be generated by an increase of 2% on the HST. Is this really worth the grief???

These 11,130 individuals are already heavily taxed, contributing $390M to the provincial coffers on an annual basis. The province collects $1.5B in personal income tax every year (personal research), so these 11,130 individuals (2.5% of all NB taxpayers) already contribute 26% of all the personal income taxes collected by the government every year.

Obviously the wealthy tax payers have a greater capacity to pay, and under a progressive tax regime (which I support), they should pay at a higher rate, but at what point does this become unfair?

I propose that once a jurisdiction enacts the highest tax regime on the continent that it has by definition become unfair. This is very bad optics and gives the province a bad reputation. This poor reputation will stifle immigration to the province by high income earners. This can be very important for a province like NB which really doesn't have too many positive attributes that most people can name. In contradistinction, look at our Atlantic Canadian neighbours (NS, PE & NL) who have been quite successful at branding themselves with positive characteristics that other Canadians can identify; things like the Cabot Trail or Anne of Green Gables. What will NB be known for (aside from high taxes)?

Here are a couple more facts for you:

The letter to the editor stated that if those 11,130 high income New Brunswickers moved en masse to Alberta, that instead of paying $390M yearly in provincial taxes, the amount of tax payable would fall to $227M, for a savings of $163M on a yearly basis or 41%.

As most of you know, I am a physician so I will provide you with another interesting statistic regarding my own profession. The average physician income in NB is $264,000 (gross, before expenses). In Alberta, the average physician income is $350,000, or 32% more than in NB.

Please keep in mind that these are gross incomes, before taking off any expenses. Most (not all) physicians are "small business owners" and need to pay for rent, staff and equipment from this amount. Overhead expenses are typically 40% or so.

Overhead expenses therefore are not inconsiderable. If a physician can make 32% more money in Alberta and at the same time pay 41% less provincial income tax, that can make a hell of a difference to the bottom line. For a new medical graduate, saddled with student loans of $150-200K plus all the start up costs of establishing your new practice, would you look favourably on setting up shop in New Brunswick???

I have held executive and managerial positions in my hospital here in Moncton during my career and have been involved in physician recruitment. It can be very difficult. It's not as if there are thousands of unemployed Canadian medical graduates out there looking for a job. Most medical specialties in the country produce no more than 50-100 fully fellowship trained and board certified graduates every year. Some specialties produce even less. Think about it! There are only about 60 radiologists produced in Canada every year. For neurosurgeons, it's more like 15 new graduates a year. This is for all of Canada! This is for a continent spanning country of 36M people!! How difficult do you think it is to convince one of these 15 new neurosurgeons to come to NB when they are already biased towards academic positions within medical schools in larger cities with more amenities and better resources. Let me tell you that it is a very difficult thing to accomplish.

New Brunswick is already behind the eight ball when it comes to physician recruitment. We are viewed as rural and backward, without a real medical school to provide back up and ongoing continuing medical education. We are also viewed as being without amenities that some expect like museums, quality theatre, private schools etc. In addition, many physicians have high income earning spouses who may find it difficult finding meaningful work in our province. Now throw in the fact that you can make 32% more money elsewhere and that by living in NB you get to pay 41% more tax. Would you come here to work???

I'm probably within 3-5 years of retirement, so I'm not going anywhere but I'm now beginning to despair over the ability of my group to find a replacement for me when I retire. Health care in this province is going to suffer. I think there is a very good chance that I will move elsewhere on retirement. Someplace to the west. Someplace with a lower tax regime and a better climate - perhaps BC.

I'm sure I'm not the only "high income earner" thinking this way.

I used to think that NB had a future. I used to believe the hype of McKenna and later Lord. I guess I was mistaken. If I was a young physician with my career in front of me, I would seriously think of moving now. NB is probably not worth the bother.......