2017 State Population Estimates - Released 12/20/17

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Naples is almost entirely Illinois/Michigan/Ohio folks. Most of my parents friends have a place in Naples, and some have relocated year-round. Older people in affluent Midwest suburbia LOVE Naples.

very true. naples has to be the freaking capital of where upper middle class chicagolanders retire/snowbird to.

these patterns probably reinforce themselves through the old social networks of the homeland. "bob & judy got a place in naples several years ago, so at least we'd know them if went to naples too." and then a year or two later "bob & judy have lived in naples for a while, and now george & cynthia have a place there too, so at least we'd know all of them."

and so on.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

And Orlando is also huge NE corridor, though tends to be Hispanic Northeasterners (especially PR), as opposed to the stereotypical Jewish-Italian Long Island crowd in Boca or wherever.

Orlando definitely. My brother almost moved there about 10 years ago because his former in-laws moved down there. When I think of Boca..Morty and Helen Seinfeld pop into mind. I don't even count FL as it's own state anymore. It's NY with alligators and hurricanes and we just let the Floridians, Cubans and Midwestern snowbirds stay there.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Illinois had the largest decline.

i can't really speak for chicagoland (which is arguably in a different region entirely than outstate illinois), but im very familiar with outstate illinois south of I-80, and it's sort of like one huge rustbelt city spread out. tons of small cities (including but often smaller than the decaturs, etc) that had one or two huge factories that closed, resulting in a decades long downward spiral. unlike larger regions, theres literally no where else to work...so you have all of these towns that have thousands more people than the local economy can support at middle class levels...and tourism is by and large non-existent compared to say michigan or wisconsin.

[Crawford]

PA passed IL to become the fifth most populous state.

Never thought slow-growth PA would move up in the rankings, but, to be fair, it isn't like PA is doing particularly well, it's that IL is doing relatively poorly.

[Eightball]

Counterpoint: everyone from Florida I know moved to NYC. Or Atlanta

[dave8721]

Surprised to see that Florida not Texas was #1 in domestic migration. Usually Texas tops the US.

[Late1]

Originally Posted by Crawford

PA passed IL to become the fifth most populous state.

Never thought slow-growth PA would move up in the rankings, but, to be fair, it isn't like PA is doing particularly well, it's that IL is doing relatively poorly.

I think it was more of a surprise that IL even took the #5 spot from PA in the 2000 Census.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Interesting about Alaska considering they still managed to have a decline in population.

That's from the huge (for our population) domestic outflow. The oil downturn has throttled the state's economy, and not many people are willing to put up with the cold and darkness of winter if they aren't making oil work salaries.

I wonder if Louisiana's downturn is oil as well.

[C.]

Does this update today change any trends in the number of house seats by states?
Florida is growing a little faster than previous estimates?

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by JManc

Orlando definitely. My brother almost moved there about 10 years ago because his former in-laws moved down there. When I think of Boca..Morty and Helen Seinfeld pop into mind. I don't even count FL as it's own state anymore. It's NY with alligators and hurricanes and we just let the Floridians, Cubans and Midwestern snowbirds stay there.

no way...you must not be familiar with the panhandle...

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

no way...you must not be familiar with the panhandle...

That's Floribama. Morty and Helen from Massapequa aren't moving to the Panhandle.

"Florida" = Orlando and points south for Northeasterners.

[muertecaza]

Originally Posted by CIA

Does this update today change any trends in the number of house seats by states?
Florida is growing a little faster than previous estimates?

Here's a breakdown of projected house seat gains and losses based on the 2016 estimates. I haven't seen one yet that incorporates 2017 estimates. Based on my admittedly weak understanding of the formula and process, I don't see any big trend changes that would alter the projections. Florida is already projected to pick up 2 seats, and I don't think their growth changed enough to be in the running for a third.

[SteveD]

It will take a while, many years to perhaps a decade or two, but the apparent trend is for Georgia and North Carolina to eventually settle in as the 5th and 6th most populous states, behind the "Big Four"....CA, TX, FL & NY.

[subterranean]

Oregon in the top 10 for percent growth. Does not surprise me. This place is bananas.

[C.]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

Here's a breakdown of projected house seat gains and losses based on the 2016 estimates. I haven't seen one yet that incorporates 2017 estimates. Based on my admittedly weak understanding of the formula and process, I don't see any big trend changes that would alter the projections. Florida is already projected to pick up 2 seats, and I don't think their growth changed enough to be in the running for a third.

Thanks,

Based on the 2015 estimate:

Alabama: -1 (to 6)
Arizona: +1 (to 10)
Colorado: +1 (to 8)
Florida: +2 (to 29)
Illinois: -1 (to 17)
Michigan: -1 (to 13)
Minnesota: -1 (to 7)
New York: -1 (to 26)
North Carolina: +1 (to 14)
Ohio: -1 (to 15)
Oregon: +1 (to 6)
Pennsylvania: -1 (to 17)
Rhode Island: -1 (to 1)
Texas: +3 (to 39)
West Virginia: -1 (to 2)

It will be interesting to see if any of the above changes with this recent 2016 release.

[dave8721]

Surprised to see states like Maryland and Virginia seeing more international migration than Washington or Arizona.

Top international migration:
California: 164,867
Florida: 144,165
New York: 130,411
Texas: 110,417
New Jersey: 56,942
Massachusetts: 45,298
Pennsylvania: 37,389
Illinois: 33,699
Virginia: 33,365
Maryland: 29,031


Tops for net domestic migration:
Florida 160,854
Texas 79,163
North Carolina 66,051
Washington 64,579
Arizona 63,111
South Carolina 49,015
Georgia 41,107
Tennessee 40,232
Nevada 38,227
Oregon 37,975

[muertecaza]

Lowest negative domestic Migration:

New York: -190,508
California: -138,195
Illinois: -114,779
New Jersey: -57,274
Louisiana: -27,515
Pennsylvania: -25,793
Maryland: -23,984
Massachusetts: -23,089
Connecticut: -22,270
Kansas: -14,150

[bobdreamz]

Over 200,000 Puerto Ricans have arrived in Florida since Hurricane Maria.
by Carmen Sesin / Nov.30.2017 / 8:28 AM ET

More than 200,000 people have fled emergency conditions at home for Florida since Hurricane Maria devastated the US territory in the Caribbean.

The island of about 3.4 million was ravaged by the megastorm and a majority are still without electricity, while others in isolated areas are continue to await services and help.

"As of October 3, 2017, more than 208,000 individuals arrived in Florida from Puerto Rico through Miami International Airport, Orlando & Tampa International Airports according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/...-maria-n825111

Puerto Ricans could transform Florida politics, and parties are taking notice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/...notice-n822051

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*Even if half stayed in the state the future political implications could be dire for a certain party that didn't handle Hurricane Maria well.

[The North One]

Oh fuck yes, please make Florida permanently blue.

[bobdreamz]

Originally Posted by The North One

Oh fuck yes, please make Florida permanently blue.

It was already trending that way but this migration from PR might just be the impetus to push it over.