Milwaukee's Mayor Johnson wants 1 million residents

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There will likely need to be more physical locations of service businesses to serve the same number of people in a dense area than in a low density area. This is due to the higher cost of space and the proximity advantage that becomes a competitive differentiator in dense cities. This means that more stores and more jobs are created from density (and might also contribute to a higher cost for goods and services).

The result of that isn't so clear overall. Corner groceries abound in urban districts and they're more expensive, or mine sure is. But I'm buying less other stuff as a result.

Density generally comes with smaller homes and less consumption (a good thing in my opinion), which is related to things (housing, parking, corner groceries) costing more as well as restaurants, hotels, parks, etc., taking the pace of those extra rooms. This means efficiency but also eliminates some jobs.

The overall effect for the economy would isn't clear based on these few simplistic truths. A million other factors would count too.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

The result of that isn't so clear overall. Corner groceries abound in urban districts and they're more expensive, or mine sure is. But I'm buying less other stuff as a result.

How can you buy less stuff? You're going to eat roughly the same amount of food no matter where you live.

Originally Posted by mhays

Density generally comes with smaller homes and less consumption (a good thing in my opinion), which is related to things (housing, parking, corner groceries) costing more as well as restaurants, hotels, parks, etc., taking the pace of those extra rooms. This means efficiency but also eliminates some jobs.

All things equal I don't think consumption is less, but what you spend on will be different. You might spend less on home entertainment items (TVs, stereos, video games, etc), but you likely spend more money consuming entertainment in your own community (live shows, restaurants, bars, museums, etc). So the impact of your dollars are staying closer to home and supporting jobs closer to home.

[Randomguy34]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Does Milwaukee have good mass transit? A population of 1 million in Milwaukee would bring it in line with Chicago on density, so they will need a robust mass transit system.

Apparently Milwaukee used to have an amazing bus system, with 54 million trips in 1999! For context, that rivaled Baltimore and Miami, two dense cities with metro lines (Source).

While service is no longer as good, the city recently opened their first BRT line going east-west. There are plans to build a second one going north-south:


https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2021/10/2...cond-brt-line/

[mhays]

I said less other stuff, not less groceries. I still have the same income.

I do agree that urban neighborhoods can have more small businesses, such as those corner groceries. However a small-business economy isn't necessarily easy.
--For Milwaukee to hit 1,000,000, a lot of cheap commercial strips would need to become apartments.
--Typically new buildings look for proven tenants with deep credit, often chains, because a risky retail lease might actually lose the landlord more money than an empty storefront.
--A lot of people would insist on driving to the nearest place with easy parking, possibly further away than before.
--Dense cities often have far less retail square footage per capita than average because it costs more per square foot, and any long-term vacancy is a likely densification site. Milwaukee still has bowling alleys...Seattle just has one, which lives on high food and drink bills.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by mhays

Milwaukee still has bowling alleys...Seattle just has one, which lives on high food and drink bills.

What!?!?

Only one bowling alley in all of Seattle?

That might be more indicative of a cultural difference than an economic one.

Chicago is a relatively dense and urban city (by US standards), and within like a 2.5 mile radius of my home on the Northside I can think of 6 bowling alleys.

I suspect bowling might simply be more popular in the Midwest than in other regions?

[Chisouthside]

bowling=obscene amounts of beer drinking

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

bowling=obscene amounts of beer drinking

Hence why it's the official "sport" of the Midwest.

Drinking highlife out of a plastic pitcher in a shabby bowling alley on some frozen February night is peak Midwest.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

--For Milwaukee to hit 1,000,000, a lot of cheap commercial strips would need to become apartments.
--Typically new buildings look for proven tenants with deep credit, often chains, because a risky retail lease might actually lose the landlord more money than an empty storefront.

That's not really true in NYC. I've seen bike repair shops, daycare, veterinarians, etc. occupy commercial space in brand new buildings.

Originally Posted by mhays

--A lot of people would insist on driving to the nearest place with easy parking, possibly further away than before.

This seems unlikely. Everyone that I know with a car in my area walks to one of the dozens of grocery stores around here rather than driving 12 minutes to Wegmans, which has a parking lot.

Originally Posted by mhays

--Dense cities often have far less retail square footage per capita than average because it costs more per square foot, and any long-term vacancy is a likely densification site.

Less retail footage perhaps, but more options. Americas retail space per capita is bloated because of large footprint malls and big box stores built on cheap land. I can buy just about everything within a 10 minute walk that most people in America can within a 20 minute drive.

Originally Posted by mhays

Milwaukee still has bowling alleys...Seattle just has one, which lives on high food and drink bills.

Yes, NYC probably has fewer than 10 left in the entire city, and yes, the economics of bowling alleys don't really make sense in the city anymore. I'm not really sure they ever made sense for cities, tbh. They take up too much space for their economic output in a city like NYC.

[mhays]

Seattle pushes most dense growth into commercial areas, 20% of the city. In these areas, low-density retail buyers will typically be outbid by apartment developers. NYC allows dense growth in much broader areas so it doesn't have the same issue. We also don't have skating rinks except those built by our new NHL team. Roller skating and bowling used to be part of the Seattle culture to some degree, though ice skating might not have been as much.

NYC's dispersed, slower growth (in percentage terms) and prevalence of high streets has also preserved its small retail. Seattle, and Milwaukee in this scenario, wouldn't have that.

The point about driving to stores with parking is probably more prevalent when the middle and upper income folks live in denser areas. In any case this is about averages vs. anyone's circle of friends.

[llamaorama]

The suburbs of DFW have all kinds of modern 21st century chains of bowling alley entertainment complex type places, so it still exists here too and people still do it for fun. The other big thing here is pickle ball complexes where you can suck at it while getting drunk. We are going to one for a work gathering soon.

I think the absence of bowling alleys and other things in expensive coastal cities is probably just indicative of some kind of grim real estate market thing and nothing else.

[MolsonExport]

Bring back "Laverne & Shirley" to get more Milwaukee exposure.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

NYC's dispersed, slower growth (in percentage terms) and prevalence of high streets has also preserved its small retail. Seattle, and Milwaukee in this scenario, wouldn't have that.

It's not really so much about Seattle or Milwaukee, but just a general point. Although Milwaukee's plan sounds like they intend to lift zoning restrictions across the city.

Originally Posted by mhays

The point about driving to stores with parking is probably more prevalent when the middle and upper income folks live in denser areas. In any case this is about averages vs. anyone's circle of friends.

I live in an area where high income people are not very likely to own cars, but those that do also don't usually drive them for weeks at a time.

[mhays]

Again, I'm talking about averages. I'm also not saying most people drive, just a significant number that affects the success of small stores.

If we're still doing anecdotes, my condo on the fringe of Downtown Seattle has quite a few residents who bring groceries from the garage. We're in a gap between easily-walkable supermarkets or the Pike Place Market, and the corner stores are only good to a point.

Here's the reality of supermarkets in neighborhoods that aren't the core CBD in a city like Seattle: They all have parking. Here's an example planned about a mile from Downtown Seattle on Capitol Hill (207 mg set of plans, see p.4). It will have 202 parking spaces below-grade for 336 apartments + 148 for the supermarket. Milwaukee would be similar if it grew in a similar way.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Drinking highlife out of a plastic pitcher in a shabby bowling alley on some frozen February night is peak Midwest.

Good lord, are you my grandpa!? That was him to a tee

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Bring back "Laverne & Shirley" to get more Milwaukee exposure.

Also, Happy Days.

And also on constant loop, that scene from Wayne's World with Alice Cooper.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Again, I'm talking about averages. I'm also not saying most people drive, just a significant number that affects the success of small stores.

We're both talking anecdotes lol.

Originally Posted by mhays

If we're still doing anecdotes, my condo on the fringe of Downtown Seattle has quite a few residents who bring groceries from the garage. We're in a gap between easily-walkable supermarkets or the Pike Place Market, and the corner stores are only good to a point.

Here's the reality of supermarkets in neighborhoods that aren't the core CBD in a city like Seattle: They all have parking. Here's an example planned about a mile from Downtown Seattle on Capitol Hill (207 mg set of plans, see p.4). It will have 202 parking spaces below-grade for 336 apartments + 148 for the supermarket. Milwaukee would be similar if it grew in a similar way.

That sounds like an area of improvement for Seattle. It is possible to create neighborhoods where people prefer to shop locally.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

Good lord, are you my grandpa!?

I don't think so.

But he sounds like a righteous dude!

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

We're both talking anecdotes lol.

That sounds like an area of improvement for Seattle. It is possible to create neighborhoods where people prefer to shop locally.

I'm also speaking from the developer/contractor market analyst perspective, using precedent.

Seattle certainly needs to do better in making retail streets. If anything we need to stop forcing retail on secondary streets, since they often stay empty and any success weakens the primary streets.

Let's see some supermarkets without parking in your area. I gave you an example of what's typical here. Now you.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

I'm also speaking from the developer/contractor market analyst perspective, using precedent.

Seattle certainly needs to do better in making retail streets. If anything we need to stop forcing retail on secondary streets, since they often stay empty and any success weakens the primary streets.

Let's see some supermarkets without parking in your area. I gave you an example of what's typical here. Now you.

Very few supermarkets here have parking and a lot of chains with mostly suburban footprints get this wrong when they try to enter the NYC market:

Trader Joe's: https://maps.app.goo.gl/oeiMjpx4CajxVrS2A

Trader Joe's: https://maps.app.goo.gl/M41g4ktGHniYzpaCA

Whole Foods: https://maps.app.goo.gl/36DXkTwmivwfkwo2A

Whole Foods: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tnQSngGZ2grUy4Az6

Stop and Shop: https://maps.app.goo.gl/2C2dxBmyC63EbAN37

[mhays]

Central Brooklyn?! I've already specified that my points are about neighborhoods below that kind of density. Like what Milwaukee can aspire to.

In fact, by coincidence, I phrased it like this: "Brooklyn retail streets can do well purely based on walking and transit, but tweener districts seem to need both."

[Steely Dan]

My zip code in Chicago has an average density of ~20K ppsm.

Which places it in like the 95th percentile of US zip codes for population density.

(And like 98th percentile if you exclude NYC)

Every supermarket I can think of around me has accessory parking.

Sometimes the lots are rather small, like 20 cars or less.

And In a few cases, they've even put the parking up on the roof.

But they all have some parking, as do the VAST majority of supermarkets all across "neighborhood Chicago".



NYC is a CRAZY outlier within the US when it comes to all things urban.

Milwaukee is never going to have Brooklyn levels of density at scale at any point in our lives.

It won't ever even get close.