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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse
You say there's no North American context. But then you immediately follow that with a post which correctly explains one of the significant differences between the European and North American contexts which is the competing road capacity.
Also, talking just about ridership without addressing the infrastructure is missing a pretty important point which is that transit riders who have access to better infrastructure have a very different experience compared to those who don't. It's like talking about two families who both have a car they use at similar rates with one driving a year old Lucid Air and the other driving a 2010 Chevy Cobalt. Then saying you don't care about the cars - just how much they're used. Well that's kind of an important detail that the rest of us are discussing.
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Rail has higher capacity than bus. US cities have the road capacity, they don't take advantage of it to build a high capacity bus system. The capacity of Canadian bus systems is far higher than US bus systems. The overall capacity of transit in Canada is similar to European systems. It's all about capacity, nothing to do with "different experience".
Canadian cities invest a lot of money into transit, bus or otherwise. What is the most bang for the buck, lower per rider, that is the real question.
Even with LRT, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge is not going to match ridership of Halifax or Victoria, at least anytime soon. They are building to increase the overall capacity of their system. Whether they will fully take advantage of that increased capacity is another story.
You look at the other sprawl hellholes of Canada and the USA there are many systems have not taken advantage of the higher capacity that rail affords them. Ottawa has always had better ridership than Vancouver, Seattle has better ridership than Portland, San Antonio and Austin have better ridership than Dallas, Las Vegas has better ridership than Phoenix and Salt Lake City, the list goes on.
So if you build rail in Quebec and Halifax, it's because of too many riders, not because of lack of ridership. Even with rail, these cities can only achieve the ridership of Renne (88.4 million annually in 2019) only if they take full advantage of that extra capacity.
Let's look closer at Renne. 88.4 million riders for 2019, which 193 per capita. They break it down to 43% on their metro, so I am assuming the numbers represent boardings (unlinked trips), and most of the ridership is still on their bus network. Halifax got 30.4 million boardings annually in 2019, so around 1/3 the ridership of Rennes per capita. This is quite different from UK where most cities have half the ridership of Halifax.
Rennes got 33.6 million riders in 2001, before the metro. That means that
the bus ridership in Rennes increased by 50% from 2001 to 2019. It's clearly not that the ridership increased because rail is more attractive than bus, but because Rennes took advantage of the extra capacity of rail. Their bus ridership saw a huge increase in ridership after they built their metro, and
bus remains the main mode of transit in Rennes. With people in Rennes taking the bus more than ever before, it is clearly not a "different experience".
When cities build rail based on the notion that people hate buses and so cities should give people a "different experience", these cities are not going to achieve the same transit ridership as Rennes. Again, you can see plenty of examples of such failures all across the US.