Will urban housing construction resume in 2025?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

Yeah, I should clarify this thread is mostly about urban core multi-family development. I'm sure if varies a lot by market. In the market I'm most familiar with, DC, new construction starts on market rate housing in the city has basically dried up in the past year.

For the first seven months of 2024, the DC MSA is 8th in the U.S. in permitting multifamily (5+ unit) housing, with 6,184 units permitted. That sounds pretty good to me.

DC is arguably #2 in the production of traditional urban-style housing for 2024, as all the cities above DC, excepting NYC, are decentralized Sunbelt sprawlers, where it's quite likely a high share of multifamily housing isn't in downtown or transit-centric locations.

Granted, if you're right and housing production has ceased in DC proper, the units are technically suburban. But given DC-area development patterns, they're highly likely in urban and/or transit-oriented locations. The housing is almost certainly in places like Bethesda, Arlington or those more recent TOD clusters like Pike & Rose. I'm not sure a new highrise going up in Bethesda is notably less urban/transit oriented than all the housing built in DC in recent years north of Union Station, or near the waterfront.

[Crawford]

For the first seven months of 2024, NYC MSA has permitted 26,104 units in 5+ unit buildings. That definitely compares favorably to previous years, and is far above any other metro.

The NYC MSA is building multifamily housing at a 4:1 ratio to SFH, which, to me, is the more relevant metric re. relative urban demand. Overall housing permitting is likely heavily tied to the financing environment.

And almost 100% of the multifamily housing will be in urban and/or transit-oriented locations, given the extreme regional NIMBYism, especially in affluent, leafy suburban locales.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

For the first seven months of 2024, NYC MSA has permitted 26,104 units in 5+ unit buildings. That definitely compares favorably to previous years, and is far above any other metro.

The NYC MSA is building multifamily housing at a 4:1 ratio to SFH, which, to me, is the more relevant metric re. relative urban demand. Overall housing permitting is likely heavily tied to the financing environment.

And almost 100% of the multifamily housing will be in urban and/or transit-oriented locations, given the extreme regional NIMBYism, especially in affluent, leafy suburban locales.

Are those SFHs being built on tear down lots? They don't even allow new single family houses in much of the region unless it's on an already developed lot.