Federal Government & Politics II

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

A PP victory will mean four years of pain, but then we will be FREE!!!!!!!!!

If he actually does use austerity measures and doesn't just try to print/borrow the problems away, I will be so proud of him. It'll likely mean everyone will hate him and he'd only be a single term PM, but it would be the right thing to do.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The biggest surprise there is why the NDP would be doing that well. What have they done, other than prop up an unpopular government?

What have they done? “Almost no harm”, which according to basic medical principles puts them already greatly ahead of doctor Trudeau who has had nine years to actively poison the patient.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by Black Star

I have family members who are still 100% on board with the Libs. They exist

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

JT has got to go!!!!!!!!

It looks like the Canadian animal is ready to gnaw off it's leg to escape the trap.

A PP victory will mean four years of pain, but then we will be FREE!!!!!!!!!

We will be free, unless Trudeau comes back after four years of PP. He could pull a Trump...

Did I just pop your bubble?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The biggest surprise there is why the NDP would be doing that well. What have they done, other than prop up an unpopular government?

The left flank of the Liberals need somewhere to go if they're abandoning the Trudeau ship. The fact that the NDP are still only ay 18% is more of a damning indictment on Singh as party leader.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

We will be free, unless Trudeau comes back after four years of PP. He could pull a Trump...

Did I just pop your bubble?

Trump/Biden was very close, Trump never lost his base. JT is in a very different situation, he's about to get demolished, likely in April.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

JT has got to go!!!!!!!!

It looks like the Canadian animal is ready to gnaw off it's leg to escape the trap.

A PP victory will mean four years of pain, but then we will be FREE!!!!!!!!!

It is trading one pain for another. Sure, PP will quietly ease up on immigration, the largest source of inflation. But I don't think he or his bench is really well equipped for some of the structural issues facing the country. But change is good for democracy. So....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Build.It

That is wishful thinking. We are goong to have an election in a couple months and Poilievre has said the the carbon tax is going to get axed immediately.

Two points.

1) Why would the Liberals or NDP trigger an election with these poll numbers? Might as well wait till 2025 with these numbers and ride out what's left of their term.

2) It's going to take a few months for the CPC to figure out all the compensation agreements signed with the carbon tax. There's billions of dollars worth of investment that has been guaranteed a carbon price by the government. Including in the oil sector. Maybe they ride and just wait for the lawsuits to roll in. But I think they'll be trying to find a way to avoid that. There's also a non-zero chance they do what Chretien did with the GST and keep the carbon tax and axe other taxes. I think "Axe the tax" gives them that flexibility. And let's be honest, anybody voting CPC has no other choice if this happens.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Changing City

You have to wonder whether the hostility to the carbon tax is based on the belief that the rebate should cover the cost of the natural gas, and gasoline? (Similar to the comments you often see when inflation is said to be falling, that prices still went up).

In other words, gross ignorance on basic concepts.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hecate

We do know that carbon tax has increased the cost of goods across the board, what we don’t know is how much. The government seems to think it’s only increased costs by about thirty cents on every $100 of groceries. If you believe that. lol. In manitoba it’s around 90 cents on every $100 dollars. They really don’t have a clue how much of an impact the carbon tax has had. But if you honestly believe it’s only responsible for 0.3% of an increase I got some ocean front property in Saskatchewan I could sell you.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...4fa4fcce0/amp/

I believe it because a respected economist used StatCan data to do his analysis. If you want to do another analysis, please enlighten us all:

Tombe used a Statistics Canada modelling program that analyzes the relationship between taxation and personal finances and takes into account, for example, increased costs of heating on a corner store, when figuring out how much grocery prices have been affected by the tax.

In Alberta, the carbon tax has increased prices by about 0.3 per cent, Tombe said. That’s just 30 cents on a $100 bill. In Manitoba it’s 0.9 per cent and in Ontario it’s 0.4 per cent.

If you want to be taken seriously, you need to back up your statements.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

That is wishful thinking. We are goong to have an election in a couple months and Poilievre has said the the carbon tax is going to get axed immediately.

What is going to cause the Libs to trigger an election pray tell?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Two points.

1) Why would the Liberals or NDP trigger an election with these poll numbers? Might as well wait till 2025 with these numbers and ride out what's left of their term.

Exactly. The only reason to willingly choose a bad scenario is when that “bad” scenario is actually moderate compared to the full range of other future possibilities.

For example, I’ll probably let you shoot me in the leg right now, if the alternatives are that in 2025 I either get shot in the head or escape unscathed.

But if the immediate option is as bad as the worst scenarios, no sense opting for it, better to just take your chances.

Get destroyed in an election right now, or wait and see until 2025? No brainer choice.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Like I said above, people assume all inflation is because of the carbon tax. Most of it is just straight up inflation. The carbon tax isn't responsible for higher labour costs, higher rents, etc. And the carbon tax doesn't impact energy on imported foods beyond transport from the border to your store. But I will concede that reasoned discussion is close to impossible on this because it's all emotionally driven and nobody wants to listen to facts.

In 2026, when PP repeals the carbon tax, many of you are going to be really surprised and disappointed when food prices don't drop at all.

And food price inflation has been higher South of the border yet there is no carbon pricing there.

Most of us will be WORSE off if a PP government gets rid of the carbon pricing and rebates.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

What is going to cause the Libs to trigger an election pray tell?

I have the exact same question. (See post above.)

(Except I’d rephrase it to add the NDP as the other potential trigger puller.)

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

We will be free, unless Trudeau comes back after four years of PP. He could pull a Trump...

Did I just pop your bubble?

Well it's not totally out of the question. Sort of like how I mentioned before at the beginning of the Great Depression in 1930 when Mackenzie King Liberals lost to the R B Bennett Conservatives. Most people thought that it was the end for King and that things couldn't get worse under Bennett but they did and a lot worse. And King had a huge victory in 1935 and remained PM until 1948.

I'm not at all suggestion the same thing will happen but in politics there is a remote possibility.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The left flank of the Liberals need somewhere to go if they're abandoning the Trudeau ship. The fact that the NDP are still only ay 18% is more of a damning indictment on Singh as party leader.

Singh is certainly not helping his party and also the fact that not enough voters see the NDP as an alternative that has a realistic chance of governing. Kind of like the Ontario NDP.

[Build.It]

Singh has said he will pull thr NDP's support if a serious pharmacare bill isn't brought forward by the Liberals by Mar 1. This is almost guaranteed to not happen, since it's not allocated for in the Federal budget, and there are way too many hurdles with private insurers to jump through in just 3 weeks.

So the Liberals won't put a bill forward, Singh will then use that as an excuse to pull his support, and then the house will have a non-confidence vote, which will trigger an election.

I though the same as you guys prior to that announcement. Now I don't.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. The only reason to willingly choose a bad scenario is when that “bad” scenario is actually moderate compared to the full range of other future possibilities.

For example, I’ll probably let you shoot me in the leg right now, if the alternatives are that in 2025 I either get shot in the head or escape unscathed.

But if the immediate option is as bad as the worst scenarios, no sense opting for it, better to just take your chances.

Get destroyed in an election right now, or wait and see until 2025? No brainer choice.

Exactly.

But there's even more to this. Go another year in power and they can get so much more locked in, tying the hands of a future CPC government even more. I pointed out the above Contracts for Difference that is back stopping some investment. Ironically, the biggest beneficiary of these is the energy sector and specifically in Alberta and Saskatchewan. No reason they can't sign another $20-30B worth of CCFDs over the next year. Or lock in pharmacare as it launches with more cohorts through the year. Most of these policies wouldn't do any damage to the LPC if they win. But would be massively difficult for the CPC if they win.

No idea if the LPC is actually this smart. They don't appear to be. But if it were me, I'd be rather Machiavellian in my last year in office.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

The left flank of the Liberals need somewhere to go if they're abandoning the Trudeau ship. The fact that the NDP are still only ay 18% is more of a damning indictment on Singh as party leader.

I have thought this for a while. We're in a period of substantial economic inequality, issues with labour (gig economy problems), etc and somehow the supposedly workers' party is at 18%?

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I believe it because a respected economist used StatCan data to do his analysis. If you want to do another analysis, please enlighten us all:



If you want to be taken seriously, you need to back up your statements.

Clearly you missed the part of the article where they talk about the compounding effects of the tax that weren’t taken into consideration when making the calculation. So maybe keep reading before jumping to conclusions and trying to sound smart… if you want to be taken seriously.