Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even if everyone knows full well that the EU would admit an independent Catalonia if ever that were to happen.

Admission to the EU requires unanimity of the membership. Rump Spain might have something to say about this.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Admission to the EU requires unanimity of the membership. Rump Spain might have something to say about this.

The baked-in instinct to dominate dies hard, but they'd get over it eventually.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It also provides a much better life for a greater proportion of its citizens than it did in the so-called good old days of the 60s and 70s.

Unless you are a Canadiens fan...

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Unless you are a Canadiens fan...

Not at all related to socio-political changes in Québec though.

Some of the Habs' biggest dynasties were during the most tumultuous times.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Merci d'avoir partagé cet article.

Montreal has actually "fully recovered" with for example an unemployment rate lower than Toronto's even before the pandemic and also lower crime rates.

But sure, Montreal will never again be the largest city in Canada if that is someone's definition of "recovery".

One comparison that is dubious in terms of the economy is that Barcelona as the economic powerhouse of Spain had an economy largely controlled by Catalans who were always a prosperous élite class in spite of oppression under Franco.

When Montreal was Canada's economic powerhouse and dominant city, the economy there was controlled b6 the anglo minority, and French Canadians were a poor proletarian class.

It's tempting to compare Barcelona within Catalonia within Spain to Montreal within Quebec within Canada. By almost complete coincidence, the population numbers almost completely match up:

Metropolis of 4.5 million within a linguistic minority province of 7-8 million within a country of 35-40 million. Both cities are the clear second city of their country, despite being of the country's second language, and the primate cities are about the same size and, therefore, the same relative size to Montreal/Barcelona.

But the big difference is like you said: the Catalonians were an elite, Catalonia is an economic outlier like Alberta within Canada, and the EU is like a fourth layer that doesn't exist in the Quebec scenario.

Right now, Catalonia would get a lot of economic upside to separation, but not very much cultural sovereignty upside. It wouldn't have to see its tax money bail out Andalucia, but with Schengen and EU labour mobility, Spaniards would still migrate there and spend their days speaking Castilian Spanish, and Europeans would still travel there or live there temporarily and spend their days speaking English.

Montreal is the reverse: the future of French on the North American continent would be pretty firmly established, and Quebec City and not Ottawa would control who settles in the new country, but the economy of the new country would be ruined. Even after 1976, I feel like about 1/3 of the old Anglo-Canadian corporations have everything from a major presence that does more than just serve as a regional backoffice to a full blown HQ in the city, and almost all of these would cut and run. Why would a company like CN or Air Canada be HQed in an independent country far away from the majority of their operations? Maybe Quebec-run corporations would fill some of that void, but not immediately, and not ever to the same level. What would be the future of the 600,000 middle and upper middle class Anglos in Montreal, or of McGill and Concordia universities and their spinoffs?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Montreal is the reverse: the future of French on the North American continent would be pretty firmly established, and Quebec City and not Ottawa would control who settles in the new country, but the economy of the new country would be ruined. Even after 1976, I feel like about 1/3 of the old Anglo-Canadian corporations have everything from a major presence that does more than just serve as a regional backoffice to a full blown HQ in the city, and almost all of these would cut and run. Why would a company like CN or Air Canada be HQed in an independent country far away from the majority of their operations? Maybe Quebec-run corporations would fill some of that void, but not immediately, and not ever to the same level. What would be the future of the 600,000 middle and upper middle class Anglos in Montreal, or of McGill and Concordia universities and their spinoffs?

There is a school of thought out there that the rump anglo minority in Montreal might be better off in an independent Quebec as independence would give the francophone majority increased cultural and linguistic security (they would no longer feel threatened by the anglophone majority in the RoC).

I'm not sure I believe this, but the new power structure in independent Quebec might realize that some concessions may be necessary to maintain relationships with the RoC and with the USA (to facilitate multinational companies within the new country).

[MolsonExport]

Quebec would gain very little culturally (at least not in the short run, except in the case where half the remaining Anglos decamp to the ROC), while potentially gaining a lot of national debt if they were saddled with their fair share. Quebec is already overwhelmingly French, and the culture is overwhelmingly that of the Quebecois majority. Quebec would also lose many heavyweight firms and on that account it would be a redux of the years following the 1976 election of the Parti Quebecois, when many firms (and headquarters) left the province. Nobody wants to remember the inconvenient truth of how stagnant the provinces economy was for decades, and how precarious things were in Montreal.

Quebec has come a long way since those dark days of the 1970s-1990s, both culturally and economically, and is now arguably more prosperous than at any point in its history. It is hard to argue with a straight face that the province and its people are still under the yoke of the evil Anglos. Why take a risk, for such little gain?

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Catalan independence movement is really suffering from everyone with any power ganging up on them, including the EU.

They are all defending the status quo that favours them and their friends.

They suffer foremost from the fact the Catalan population is divided half/half about independence, just like in Québec. In both cases, if 2/3 of the population was in favor of independence, independence would have been achieved long ago, Anglo-Canada/Spain/EU or not.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

but the economy of the new country would be ruined

That's ridiculous. An independent Québec wouldn't be ruined. It would be a prosperous country like Ireland, Denmark, or Sweden. Norway wasn't ruined when it seceded from Sweden (and they didn't have petrol back then).

Originally Posted by hipster duck

What would be the future of the 600,000 middle and upper middle class Anglos in Montreal, or of McGill and Concordia universities and their spinoffs?

They would stay put, just as the middle and upper middle class Swedes in Finland stayed put when Finland seceded and declared its independence.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's ridiculous. An independent Québec wouldn't be ruined. It would be a prosperous country like Ireland, Denmark, or Sweden. Norway wasn't ruined when it seceded from Sweden (and they didn't have petrol back then).

Apples to oranges. One was an agrarian, subsistence economy in 1905 and the other is a globally-integrated advanced economy in 2023. It wasn't clear that Norway would be a prosperous country until they discovered oil in the North Sea in the 60s.

A lot of Quebec's economy comes from still having high-valued firms that rely on access to the larger Canadian market where the majority of the actual revenue comes from the ROC. Some would have to pull out just based on their mandate alone: no sense managing the assets of the Federal public sector pension plan (PSPP) in Montreal; no sense having Canada's flag carrier based in another country and away from its main hub. Even the Quebec-based firms founded by Francophones derive a lot of their business from the rest of Canada. I'm pretty sure that Metro and SNC Lavalin would have to open offices in the ROC, similar to WalMart Canada or Honda Canada, and that would come at the expense of the HQ in Montreal.

It's not just Montreal that would be effected. Rural Quebec lives off supply-managed agriculture tilted in Quebec's favour. Something like 46% of all dairy production in Canada must be supplied from Quebec. I'd rather have 46% of 38 million than 100% of 8 million.

Despite its size, Quebec also doesn't have natural resources that can't be found somewhere else. It has cheap hydro power, but so does a lot of the rest of Canada, and, given advancements in solar and offshore wind I think that has maybe 15 years of strategic advantage in export potential to the US.

They would stay put, just as the middle and upper middle class Swedes in Finland stayed put when Finland seceded and declared its independence.

Again, you're comparing illiterate peasants from the 19th century with few choices to contemporary, educated middle and upper class Anglos who live in the heart of a major city.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Again, you're comparing illiterate peasants from the 19th century with few choices to contemporary, educated middle and upper class Anglos who live in the heart of a major city.

No. The Swedophone minority of Finland was exactly like the Anglophone minority of Québec: middle and upper class urbanites who controlled the Finnish economy. The Finnish nationalist movement was built in opposition to this Swedish upper class, just like in Québec, because the Finnish language and culture in the 19th century was in danger of disappearing. Helsinki and other Finnish cities were in their majority Swedish speaking (in fact to this day the Finnish slang spoken in Helsinki is still heavily influenced by Swedish, a bit like Chiac in New Brunswick). The Finns were rural peasants and an exploited urban proletariat. So all very similar to Québec.

When Finland became independent, the Swedish middle and upper classes didn't flee. They remained in Finland, and the independent Finland granted them a very generous minority status (with bilingual rights in most cities).

[someone123]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

It's not just Montreal that would be effected. Rural Quebec lives off supply-managed agriculture tilted in Quebec's favour. Something like 46% of all dairy production in Canada must be supplied from Quebec. I'd rather have 46% of 38 million than 100% of 8 million.

Yeah, there's a version of Quebec independence which is presented explicitly or implicitly as a scenario where Quebec picks from the menu of goodies offered by Canada. But it would be a wide renegotiation and could easily become acrimonious and open-ended (see: Brexit). And Quebec is just a non-entity from a NAFTA type American perspective.

If you were just trying to troll Western Canadian voters it would be hard to come up with something worse than saying Quebec would separate but there would still be import and regional production caps in place for dairy production. For Quebec separatists this kind toxic parochial politicking can be a plus (see? Canada is not working) but these would be impediments to real negotiations.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's ridiculous. An independent Québec wouldn't be ruined. It would be a prosperous country like Ireland, Denmark, or Sweden. Norway wasn't ruined when it seceded from Sweden (and they didn't have petrol back then).


They would stay put, just as the middle and upper middle class Swedes in Finland stayed put when Finland seceded and declared its independence.

In all honesty I think that probably about half of Quebec's anglos would leave if independence happened.

[niwell]

The economy obviously isn't the point of separation, but there's no way Quebec would end up being equals to places I'd consider better off than Canada in many respects (save Ireland maybe)! Short-term prospects would never be good, regardless of how things may eventually shake out. Scandinavia was a VERY different place 100 years ago than today.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

In all honesty I think that probably about half of Quebec's anglos would leave if independence happened.

You mean people would sell their houses all at the same time, in a downward market generated by so many people selling at the same time? And risk quitting their jobs to look for other jobs (if they find any, and at what pay level?) in Toronto or elsewhere? Uproot their children from school and friends? Replace the pleasant life in Latin Québec (you know, that place with Franco-culture that one loves to criticize but also loves to live in) for a boring life in Anglo-Canada? It's hard to believe.

Federal civil servants would probably leave (although those living in Gatineau would probably stay where they are, since they only have to cross the river to go to work), as well as the cadres in the few pan-Canadian businesses that would relocate to Toronto, but most of the others would probably stay. You don't totally uproot your life if you don't have a serious reason to do it (such as persecution, pogroms, etc).

[Acajack]

As you say, the economy isn't the point of independence (or not).

If it was, Canada might not be independent from the United States.

In other news, Québec once again has the lowest jobless rate in the country.

1.3% lower than Ontario.

Consider that this had never happened in Canadian history before a couple of years ago, and now it's maintaining itself with some consistency.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

You mean people would sell their houses all at the same time, in a downward market generated by so many people selling at the same time? And risk quitting their jobs to look for other jobs (if they find any, and at what pay level?) in Toronto or elsewhere? Uproot their children from school and friends? Replace the pleasant life in Latin Québec (you know, that place with Franco-culture that one loves to criticize but also loves to live in) for a boring life in Anglo-Canada? It's hard to believe.

Federal civil servants would probably leave (although those living in Gatineau would probably stay where they are, since they only have to cross the river to go to work), as well as the cadres in the few pan-Canadian businesses that would relocate to Toronto, but most of the others would probably stay. You don't totally uproot your life if you don't have a serious reason to do it (such as persecution, pogroms, etc).

Something like 400,000 of them left from 1977 to the early 1980s because of the simple possibility of separation and shit like the fucking size of letters on business signs.

So yeah, I think a lot would split.

[MolsonExport]

^not despite political instability but partly because of political stability, among a host of other factors.

New Brisavoine, you really seem to be pushing for Quebec independence. What do you think about the Basque Nationalism and Breton Nationalism? the Front de Liberacion Nacionala de Provença? Similar movements in Corsica and Alsace?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Something like 400,000 of them left from 1977 to the early 1980s because of the simple possibility of separation and shit like the fucking size of letters on business signs.

So yeah, I think a lot would split.

And many took a bath on their home values. I remember these days extremely well. Most of my close friends in elementary school at the time moved West. Thankfully we stayed put, partly because we would have had an underwater mortgage.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Something like 400,000 of them left from 1977 to the early 1980s because of the simple possibility of separation and shit like the fucking size of letters on business signs.

Yeah, but precisely, those who would have left have already left. Only the diehards have remained, and these won't leave easily. Of course the recently arrived transplants will leave, but I have a hard time imagining that the Anglophones born in Québec, or who have lived most of their lives in Québec, will leave just like that.