City Murder Rates

[ilcapo]

Originally Posted by LA21st

. 4 million people, 284. Not bad. .

Half the population of London but 3x the homicides. Sounds pretty bad to me.

But im glad its on the right track if course.

[LA21st]

Better than 90 percent of american big cities.
Cant really think of many off top of my head that are better.
Nyc, sf, san diego. Boston. Virgina beach (?)
Austin (?)

[craigs]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Better than 90 percent of american big cities.
Cant really think of many off top of my head that are better.
Nyc, sf, san diego. Boston. Virgina beach (?)

LA's current homicide rate of 7.28 per 100,000 compares well to other major US cities, and is lower than LA's own homicide rates in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. It is also in line with the homicide rates in the 2010s.


source

[LA21st]

I think its 5.53 now but i could be wrong.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I'm still amazed at DC. One of the most hypergentrified cities/regions on the planet, vast prosperity, and even the bad areas have received tons of investment. There's no neighborhood in DC with abandonment or obvious decay. The worst hoods all have excellent Metro service, all a few minutes from one of the biggest job centers anywhere.

The cycle of black-on-black underclass youth violence is so depressing and intractable. DC should have relatively low homicide rates. It doesn't even have a large population of at-risk youth anymore. I believe the District is less than 50% black now and the share of youth is tiny. Only SF has a smaller share of youth. Also DC has a large population of high-earning, highly educated black families.

Memphis is no shocker, tho. It has all the ingredients for urban violence. Guns, poverty, limited social services, large black population. Memphis has far more homicides than NYC or LA. It has more homicides than NYC & Toronto combined.

Birmingham and Jackson are similar to Memphis. Both have 100+ homicides with city populations less than 200,000. Large black populations, high concentration of poverty, anemic growth, and ineffective city leadership.

[tech12]

As of November 23:

San Francisco (pop. 831,703):
2023 - 50 (6.0/100,000 residents)
2022 - 45

Oakland (pop. 419,556):
2023 - 113 (26.9/100,000 residents)
2022 - 112


San Jose (pop. 959,256):
2023 - 30 (3.1/100,000 residents)
2022 - 35

population stats are January 2023 estimates from the CA department of finance: https://dof.ca.gov/wp-content/upload...essRelease.pdf

[SD_Phil]

Originally Posted by tech12

As of November 23:

San Francisco (pop. 831,703):
2023 - 50 (6.0/100,000 residents)
2022 - 45

Oakland (pop. 419,556):
2023 - 113 (26.9/100,000 residents)
2022 - 112


San Jose (pop. 959,256):
2023 - 30 (3.1/100,000 residents)
2022 - 35

population stats are January 2023 estimates from the CA department of finance: https://dof.ca.gov/wp-content/upload...essRelease.pdf

Thanks for posting these numbers. As someone who lives in Oakland (Deep East at that) but who works in San Jose, I can attest to the surreal weirdness of going to bed to sideshows and occasional gunfire while living next to some of the safest big cities in the country.

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by SD_Phil

Thanks for posting these numbers. As someone who lives in Oakland (Deep East at that) but who works in San Jose, I can attest to the surreal weirdness of going to bed to sideshows and occasional gunfire while living next to some of the safest big cities in the country.

It's funny because when i lived in San Jose a few years ago alot of my other transplant co workers thought it was dangerous and chose to live around sunnyvale/santa clara instead.

[iheartthed]

Detroit is on pace for lowest murder rate in 60 years:

DETROIT (FOX 2) - A partnership to reduce Detroit crime is being praised with the City on pace for the fewest homicides in 60 years.

"This is the day we’ve been waiting for, for a long time," said Mayor Mike Duggan.

The coalition which includes city and county leaders that Detroit Police Chief James White formed in late 2021 to return the criminal justice system in Detroit and Wayne County to pre-Covid operations.

To get it done, White targeted key areas like reducing the felony gun case backlog.

"We know why violent crime soared in America. The criminal courts shut down - you could not put 12 jurors in a room," Duggan said.

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/det...ears-this-year

Edit, I suspected that the headline in the Fox article was incorrect, and it is. Detroit is on track for fewest murders since 1966, not lowest murder rate since 1966: https://www.freep.com/story/news/loc...s/71801589007/

[AviationGuy]

I saw today that the shooting spree here made national news. A guy killed his parents in San Antonio, drove to Austin, killed two couples in their homes, shot a cyclist (he'll be ok), and shot and injured two officers. Six fatalities.

One of the couples he killed in their home was in Circle C, one of the best neighborhoods here, located on the southwest side. I knew an animal shelter volunteer who lived on that street about 15 years ago.

The guy was caught when he crashed into another car at an intersection I travel through frequently.

For some reason we're still considered a safe city, but it sure doesn't feel like it. Too many things like this have happened in the last few years, not the least of which was the bombings about five years ago. That guy finally blew himself up on the I-35 access road after he killed some people and terrorized the city.

[Smuttynose1]

Below are some of the homicide rates for selected US cities and a couple Canadian ones reflected in rate per 100K as we near the end of the year...

Toronto, Can... 2.18
San Jose, Calif.... 3.06
New York, NY... 4.18
Boston, Mass... 5.04
Winnipeg, Can... 5.20
San Francisco, Calif... 5.95
Los Angeles, Calif... 7.69
Seattle, Wash... 9.50
Denver, Colo... 9.64
Chicago, Ill... 20.98
Philadelphia, Pa... 24.31
Atlanta, Ga... 25.51
Washington, DC... 36.81

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

Below are some of the homicide rates for selected US cities and a couple Canadian ones reflected in rate per 100K as we near the end of the year...

Toronto, Can... 2.18
San Jose, Calif.... 3.06
New York, NY... 4.18
Boston, Mass... 5.04
Winnipeg, Can... 5.20
San Francisco, Calif... 5.95
Los Angeles, Calif... 7.69
Seattle, Wash... 9.50
Denver, Colo... 9.64
Chicago, Ill... 20.98
Philadelphia, Pa... 24.31
Atlanta, Ga... 25.51
Washington, DC... 36.81

I think Montreal is at 1.6.

This includes 7 that are people who died in an AirBnb fire in a historic old building, which are now filed as murders.

Without those, the rate would be around 1.2.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

Below are some of the homicide rates for selected US cities and a couple Canadian ones reflected in rate per 100K as we near the end of the year...

Toronto, Can... 2.18
San Jose, Calif.... 3.06
New York, NY... 4.18
Boston, Mass... 5.04
Winnipeg, Can... 5.20
San Francisco, Calif... 5.95
Los Angeles, Calif... 7.69
Seattle, Wash... 9.50
Denver, Colo... 9.64
Chicago, Ill... 20.98
Philadelphia, Pa... 24.31
Atlanta, Ga... 25.51
Washington, DC... 36.81

Thanks for putting this together. How about Vancouver?

[Gresto]

Impressive that many American cities have reduced their homicide numbers so much in the last 20 or so years. 1991 must have been the worst year for homicides in Canada and the U.S. I don't have a chart handy, but I believe murders generally began to decrease thereafter in most large N.A. cities, not including Mexico. Back then, it was not an eye-opener for NYC to top 2,000 homicides per annum.

[Steely Dan]

DC having a homicide rate roughly 75% higher than Chicago probably flies in direct conflict to the Average Joe's assumptions about the two cities.

Not that Chicago's atrociously high homicide rate is anywhere remotely close to being acceptable, but I do feel the city gets overly singled-out and piled upon by the national media for it.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Smuttynose1

Below are some of the homicide rates for selected US cities and a couple Canadian ones reflected in rate per 100K as we near the end of the year...

Toronto, Can... 2.18
San Jose, Calif.... 3.06
New York, NY... 4.18
Boston, Mass... 5.04
Winnipeg, Can... 5.20
San Francisco, Calif... 5.95
Los Angeles, Calif... 7.69
Seattle, Wash... 9.50
Denver, Colo... 9.64
Chicago, Ill... 20.98
Philadelphia, Pa... 24.31
Atlanta, Ga... 25.51
Washington, DC... 36.81

Seattle and Denver being worse than LA is surprising to me.

[LA21st]

Seattle has a tougher street element than I expected on my first visit.
I'm not suprised after visiting and seeing/hearing about crime there. Even some areas I thought were nice, I was told were kinda sketch by locals.

Obviously it's a big tech city with Amazon and what not, but I can see a darker side to it.

I wonder if Denver is the same way, haven't seen it in person yet.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Seattle has a tougher street element than I expected on my first visit.
I'm not suprised after visiting and seeing/hearing about crime there. Even some areas I thought were nice, I was told were kinda sketch by locals.

Obviously it's a big tech city with Amazon and what not, but I can see a darker side to it.

I wonder if Denver is the same way, haven't seen it in person yet.

I feel the same way about Austin. I don't know our murder rate, but the city feels unsafe partly because of the random nature of murders in the last year or so. Knowing about the young woman gunned down this week while she was pushing her baby's stroller (in a decent neighborhood) totally upset this city. And the same guy broke into a house and killed a mom and her special needs daughter. This is the guy who killed six people total, injured two officers and also a cyclist.

Only a few months ago a guy randomly walked into a coffee shop at the Arboretum and killed a woman sitting there with her friend. Yesterday, man was stabbed to death at a convenience store next to my gym. It's nuts.

[FromSD]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Seattle has a tougher street element than I expected on my first visit.
I'm not suprised after visiting and seeing/hearing about crime there. Even some areas I thought were nice, I was told were kinda sketch by locals.

Obviously it's a big tech city with Amazon and what not, but I can see a darker side to it.

I wonder if Denver is the same way, haven't seen it in person yet.

I wonder if there is a correlation between boom towns and higher murder rates. The influx of people leads to instability and a loosening of community ties. Not all the people moving in have a firm plan on how to make a living and things go amiss when they don't. Los Angeles in the '80s may serve as an example of this. The murder rate was rising along with the population as people moved into the area. In-migration slowed down in the '90s as the number of murders declined. This probably had more to do with demographic changes, better gang outreach, a subsiding of the crack cocaine epidemic and improved policing, but I wonder if LA no longer being a major destination for domestic migration might also have had an effect. From the comments above, perhaps booming Austin is also following the same pattern, though one rash of shootings doesn't make a long term trend.

[Steely Dan]

^ that could be part of it, but there can be all kinds of reasons why some cities have more gun violence than others.

For instance, in Chicago's case, the high homicide rate stems from the city having the largest and most stubbornly engrained street gang problem in the nation, with an estimated 100,000 gang members who shoot guns at each other as routinely as regular people might go to the grocery store or do some other such mundane task.

Since I've never known Seattle to have a notorious street gang culture, it really is quite surprising to see it have a relatively high homicide rate. I would've guessed Seattle would be more in Boston or New York range.