Quote:
Originally Posted by Rizzo
I’ve never been this concerned about a local election or this distrusting of the candidate pool.
I’m worried and don’t know what’s next on the horizon. I’ve seen my real estate value nearly flat line. My prop taxes increased 25% in the last 6 years, cost of managing a building in this city has skyrocketed to the point where I’ve had to take on that responsibility myself and I do think it’s tied to current issues. level of public services seems eroded and further burdened by expiration of federal funds. I realize crime is bad everywhere, but our reputation the most damaged nationwide. Morale and civic pride seem lower than ever among everyone I talk to. Feeling burned out and concerned. I wish there was a candidate to be excited about this election with more mechanical solutions vs long term aspirations that will do nothing to repair urgent problems
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Which is why of the 2, I think Vallas has more promise than Johnson on this. People have seen me do tons of analysis on crime. I've done it for various outlets too and there is a lot of bullshit out there. For example, the amount of robbery in the city thru 2/22 is nearly 20% lower than it was in 2013, which was one of the lowest years for crime at the time since 1965. The amount in Near North Side + The Loop + Lakeview + Lincoln Park + Uptown + Lincoln Square + North Center + Edgewater this year is literally only 1 more than the same time period in 2019 had, and nearly 25% lower than what it was in 2013. There is also some truth that between mid 2020 and mid 2022, there was an uptick in shootings downtown, increase of robberies in West Town, etc. Some other parts of town like the north side didn't see much change from before really, though.
Yet people even in these areas don't talk about it like that. They're convinced that it's just incredibly worse than it's ever been when nothing is further from the truth. But perception matters a lot and they've convinced a whole lot of people and the national media that even in these areas it's the worst ever. And people/business who are looking at the city will look at these stories and start worrying. I'm not talking about your outlier who holds onto stereotypes for 30 years. A lot of "regular" people look into that and if all they see is negative news, it can swing some people to not consider Chicago. Obviously many will - Chicago continues to be where many move to, but it could be even more and less people could leave.
Vallas could end up like a Giuliani where everyone gives him credit for reducing crime, when it was actually already reducing before that. Chicago's homicides and shootings have been reducing for many months now. We're currently almost 15% lower for homicides than a year ago, and about 8.5% lower than 2018. That's not the perception though. People think murders are still increasing in the city. Perception matters a ton.
The sooner Chicago can get off the national psyche for crime perception (whether real, imagined, or a combination of both), the better. And Vallas I believe can do that. Whether homicides and shootings continue to come down under his watch, and reduce other types of crime is a different story. I do agree with him that feeling safe in your city literally everywhere is important. When I lived in NYC, there was hardly any areas I ever felt unsafe in. I'd say a good 75% of Chicago to me is like that, but 25% is by far worse than anywhere in NYC and it's not even close. Nobody should feel unsafe anywhere they are (unless they're being a racist asshole - that's a completely different story).
On the flip side, we need to see some actual changes in crime. And that starts with addressing the root causes. But it also doesn't mean you cut off a police force fast. It'll take years and years to fix some of these issues. I don't really understand people who see this in black and white. You need both a short and long term plan on how you are going to get there. Everyone seems to either have a short term plan, or a long term plan. Not both.
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