Canadian LRT/RT projects U/C

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't think PP will be as adverse to public transit as some think. He certainly won't be throwing around the money Trudeau has but he knows that he has to make big inroads into suburban Canada to win and maintain his gov't. Ford found this out pretty quickly.

Also, some of the biggest supporters of expanded urban transit have come from the business community itself. Canada has been losing the productivity war and some of that can be blamed upon our urban infrastructure and our city traffic levels.

Liberals in 2025 need to get out there and start signing deals with the local authorities to lock in projects over the next five or six years.

We need to think positively, after a short lived conservative government we will be back to the Liberals and more funding. In there is sufficient projects in the pipeline that is will help maintain momentum.

[ericmacm]

I am not convinced that a federal Conservative government will stop funding transit, as most conservatives in Canada now understand the importance of transit infrastructure. I do agree though that the funding toward transit will not be as significant as it has been under the Liberals. The big question will be if Pierre ends up being a similar flavour of Conservative as Doug Ford, who has been very aggressive in the transit expansion front. I even think Danielle Smith, notably further right, is even showing signs of a pivot towards being aggressively pro-transit/commuter rail with the recent announcement about building an Alberta rail network, and all of the interest expressed in connecting the Calgary and Edmonton LRT networks to the airports. Attitudes when campaigning vs attitudes when in power are often completely different.

I do think that the key is to lock in as many projects as possible to keep the pipeline of projects going regardless of what the next people in power do. Hopefully we can see good movement on this front for the Hamilton LRT, Quebec Tramway, and even the Gatineau Tramway between now and the election.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I am not convinced that a federal Conservative government will stop funding transit, as most conservatives in Canada now understand the importance of transit infrastructure. I do agree though that the funding toward transit will not be as significant as it has been under the Liberals. The big question will be if Pierre ends up being a similar flavour of Conservative as Doug Ford, who has been very aggressive in the transit expansion front. I even think Danielle Smith, notably further right, is even showing signs of a pivot towards being aggressively pro-transit/commuter rail with the recent announcement about building an Alberta rail network, and all of the interest expressed in connecting the Calgary and Edmonton LRT networks to the airports. Attitudes when campaigning vs attitudes when in power are often completely different.

I do think that the key is to lock in as many projects as possible to keep the pipeline of projects going regardless of what the next people in power do. Hopefully we can see good movement on this front for the Hamilton LRT, Quebec Tramway, and even the Gatineau Tramway between now and the election.

I think it's pretty clear that PP is not the same kind of conservative as Ford which is not just something you see with transit but also stuff like their approaches to handling the pandemic. The majority of PP fans I've (frequently) encountered online hate Ford and place him basically in the same category as Trudeau because of their agreement on things such as opposing the trucker tantrum.

With transit, I think both are opposed to anything that would make a place more urban and less car-centric. But Ford is a pragmatist in that he supports urban transit in places that are already urban to ensure their continued mobility which often requires improvements in capacity and coverage. And he also supports park-n-ride type transit for suburban places to allow them to get into town without the hassle of traffic and parking. But I don't think PP cares about either goal. Based on his comments around the QC tram it seems that he wants suburban residents to have easy car access everywhere they want to go including city centres which even rules out spending on park-n-ride type transit. And also seems to think that urban transit should be as minimal as possible to the point that something rudimentary exists for people who insist on urban living but not wanting to encourage such a sinful, degenerate lifestyle by making it any more pleasant than necessary.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I am not convinced that a federal Conservative government will stop funding transit, as most conservatives in Canada now understand the importance of transit infrastructure.

What most Conservatives think is irrelevant to what their federal party leader decides. This is clear from this spat over the Quebec tram.

That said, federal funding is not the sole determinant of what gets built. And his own MPs will be clamouring for funding if they want to go to ribbon cuttings. This is something Harper discovered when in power too. Ontario, Quebec, BC and Alberta will largely keep chugging along at a slower pace without federal cash. It's the others who will be in trouble.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I think it's pretty clear that PP is not the same kind of conservative as Ford which is not just something you see with transit but also stuff like their approaches to handling the pandemic. The majority of PP fans I've (frequently) encountered online hate Ford and place him basically in the same category as Trudeau because of their agreement on things such as opposing the trucker tantrum.

With transit, I think both are opposed to anything that would make a place more urban and less car-centric. But Ford is a pragmatist in that he supports urban transit in places that are already urban to ensure their continued mobility which often requires improvements in capacity and coverage. And he also supports park-n-ride type transit for suburban places to allow them to get into town without the hassle of traffic and parking. But I don't think PP cares about either goal. Based on his comments around the QC tram it seems that he wants suburban residents to have easy car access everywhere they want to go including city centres which even rules out spending on park-n-ride type transit. And also seems to think that urban transit should be as minimal as possible to the point that something rudimentary exists for people who insist on urban living but not wanting to encourage such a sinful, degenerate lifestyle by making it any more pleasant than necessary.

To add on to this Ford has lived in the city of Toronto his entire life and has been a city councillors so he knows the benefits of rapid transit through his entire life and has likely also seen the stats and TTC strikes to back it up.

Now let's look at a Mike Harris a PC leader in Ontario from a place which has no rapid transit. he pretty much hatted spending on transit and tried to stop 2 under construction transit project in Toronto, he succeeded in one and got the other cut in half.
Both of these projects looks like they will still get built in some form now if sheppard is expanded but it would have taken 40 more years than it should have if Harris didn't interfere.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The GTA with RER, Montreal with REM and Vancouver with SkyTrain are the only places seeing real efforts to expand rail transit into the suburbs substantially. Unfortunately places that didn't get going over the last few years are probably going to have a tougher tone over the next decade.

Calgary and Edmonton would beg to differ. Both have huge projects underway.

[Doady]

Doug Ford is the opposite of Mike Harris. Mike Harris: downloading of provincial highways and transit onto the municipalities. Doug Ford: uploading of municipal highways and transit to the province.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Doady

Doug Ford is the opposite of Mike Harris. Mike Harris: downloading of provincial highways and transit onto the municipalities. Doug Ford: uploading of municipal highways and transit to the province.

You are right. And Ford is a Toronto MLA and he needed urban/suburban Toronto support to win, and where would you build more highways inside Toronto? Mike Harris (from North Bay) was a true small government conservative and we are still feeling the disruption that his government has created even after 30 years.

PP is a Reform Conservative, another flavour of small government Conservative, and we already note the Reform tax cut rhetoric he is speaking of. Axe the tax even though very few will benefit financially. Nevertheless, how can we tax cut forever? There is only so much tax revenue to cut. Although the provinces have control over rapid transit projects, we can expect a slow down on projects when the federal coffers run dry.

But the project at biggest risk is VIA HFR. That is a federal initiative. I fully expect that PP will cancel this, no matter how many million has already been spent. Ontario is choking on the 401 corridor, but who cares about this outside of Ontario and how many Ontario voters are fully in tune with the benefits that HFR will offer in the furture. The project is ripe for cancellation sorry to say. That money will be better spent on tax cuts.

[rdaner]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The GTA with RER, Montreal with REM and Vancouver with SkyTrain are the only places seeing real efforts to expand rail transit into the suburbs substantially. Unfortunately places that didn't get going over the last few years are probably going to have a tougher tone over the next decade.

I think transit funding will probably get dialed back to Harper levels. Say $2B/yr. And probably a 25% federal contribution. That's enough to give suburban MPs some ribbon cuttings. But not enough to substantially move modal share in suburban areas outside TMV (without actual planning changes too).

What about Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton?

[Doady]

Pierre Poilievre is really all about votes, at any cost. Short term victories are easy compared to long-term victories, and transit is more of a long-term thing. His main strategy has been to be as divisive as possible and exploit any divisions. No suprisingly, cars vs. transit is yet another such division which he has identified that he will continue to try to deepen and exploit, regardless of his own actual views on cars vs. transit.

Transit users are a minority almost everywhere in Canada, especially in swing ridings, and thus Pierre Poilievre will try to use transit, users of transit, and proponents of transit as scapegoats. Already you can see he is already using rhetoric like "war on cars" to describe light rail transit. He already is trying to create two opposing groups and frame up a battle between them. You are car driver, I am car driver just like you, most Canadians are car drivers, and transit riders are our enemies.

Pierre Poilievre is not at all like Doug Ford, who tries to appeal to both drivers and transit riders at the same time. And certainly, Poilievre would not have funded and taken ownership of a $3.4 billion dollar LRT line in an NDP stronghold like Ford did.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by casper

Liberals in 2025 need to get out there and start signing deals with the local authorities to lock in projects over the next five or six years.

We need to think positively, after a short lived conservative government we will be back to the Liberals and more funding. In there is sufficient projects in the pipeline that is will help maintain momentum.

Short lived Conservative Government huh? They have to win it first and the longer Trudeau stays the larger the Conservative victory. Canadians usually give Governments about 8-10 years before we throw them out. Who knows how much the job will change the next Government .There will be less Fed resources for City stuff especially as Defence is going to become a priority whether we like it or not. Gheez even Joly is talking about Submarines now.
Our Activist Government seems to have received a message.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by rdaner

What about Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton?

What about them? Quite frankly who cares?

They don't have high modal share for transit and have fewer seats. And most of those seats are highly suburban where transit isn't a substantial deciding issue. Those cities won't be getting much beyond wrapping up what is underway or just about to be tendered.

[Acajack]

I'm all for transit and want to see all planned projects happen but let's not forget transportation technology is going to be turned upside down in the coming decade with all sorts of innovations.

Some forms of personal automated transit are likely to come along sooner than later.

I'm sure that the conservative-minded will use this likelihood to reduce immediate investments.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'm all for transit and want to see all planned projects happen but let's not forget transportation technology is going to be turned upside down in the coming decade with all sorts of innovations.

Some forms of personal automated transit are likely to come along sooner than later.

I'm sure that the conservative-minded will use this likelihood to reduce immediate investments.

Pods can't get past the basic geometry of space. The roads would be even more clogged than today. How much more time would you be willing to spend in traffic, if you're not driving, just to avoid public transport, at the same time. That's the question.

[Acajack]

Our road rights of way can be used for most modes and at least in Canada almost every single one that we already have is currently severely underutilized due to human factors and error.

Technology can be used to nullify that and any existing road today could potentially carry a load of 3-4-5 more people and goods at peak.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

But the project at biggest risk is VIA HFR. That is a federal initiative. I fully expect that PP will cancel this, no matter how many million has already been spent. Ontario is choking on the 401 corridor, but who cares about this outside of Ontario and how many Ontario voters are fully in tune with the benefits that HFR will offer in the furture. The project is ripe for cancellation sorry to say. That money will be better spent on tax cuts.

The wind has shifted a bit when it comes to passenger rail in North America, and a lot of it is happening in places that are quite right wing.

I think Alberta's proposal for passenger rail is somewhat serious. There's also the success of Brightline, in Ron de Santis' Florida, and the imminent construction of Brightline west from Southern California to Vegas.

I wouldn't say that HFR was even a sure thing under the present Liberal government. The fact that they waited until their 6th year in office to begin the RFQ, let alone RFP, and that all the timelines to reach certain milestones seem very long and drawn out suggests that the Trudeau government is just trying to signal that they're doing something while kicking the can down the road.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by rdaner

I wouldn’t worry too much about a PP government (minority or majority) as so much has been built or is under construction that a break won’t be catastrophic. Toronto is basically seeing a 2/3 increase in subway/lrt and a huge increase in GO service.

I kind of agree with this.

The critical pieces of infrastructure in Toronto were the Ontario Line and the base GO RER network (aka: OnCorridor). I'd also argue that the extension of Line 2 further into Scarborough was "table stakes". All of these are either well under construction or all the contracts have been signed and we're beyond the point of return.

The next slate of projects that are in the initial planning stages are nice to have, but not essential: Sheppard subway extension, Milton GO RER, Scarborough-Malvern LRT, a couple of BRTs, etc.

I'd say it's the same in other cities. After the Broadway subway and skytrain to Langley, what's next in the cards? A north shore connection? That's nice to have but not essential. Same with Montreal: after the game-changing REM we have a bunch of parochial LRT lines around Verdun/Lasalle and in the eastern end of the island towards Repentigny that are, frankly, kind of costly for what they deliver.

[Truenorth00]

I'll go back to what happened under Harper. They came to office arguing that transit should be the responsibility of the provinces. Their transit policy was transit pass rebates. Then they discovered that their MPs still wanted to be invited to ribbon cuttings and so they had to fund transit somewhat anyway. Very likely the same thing is going to happen with Poilievre. And $2B per year on a $400B is not that hard. They will find the money for ridings they want to win.

[Truenorth00]

This is an absolutely big deal. A Sheppard Subway extension is being mused. Two of the proposed four options extend West. And one of the proposed options extend far east to Morningside and Sheppard in Scarborough. The Ford Government is pushing some incredible subway expansion in Toronto.

https://www.metrolinx.com/en/project...ions-june-2024

PS. That Western extension includes some ridings that could be winnable for the Tories federally and provincially.

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'm all for transit and want to see all planned projects happen but let's not forget transportation technology is going to be turned upside down in the coming decade with all sorts of innovations.
.

That is a good point, and actually Canada has already fallen behind. Just look at our commuter train systems. Most of the western world has moved onto to EMUs. Canada is still using diesel locomotives to haul their commuter trains.