PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread II

[Mtphilly]

Originally Posted by mja

Why would those crimes be any more under-reported now than in the past? You can't just say that you don't trust the data and then make a claim without any actual supporting data at all. That's not how this works. Let's just take shootings. If murders are down, then surely shootings are down at roughly a commensurate level? So, maybe something like 30% from last year, 40% from the height of the pandemic? Or do you suppose that Philly's criminals have suddenly developed bad aim?

Yep, shootings are down at roughly a commensurate level. I blame social media/citizen app for why people think crime has gone up when all the stats say it’s gone down.

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by mja

Why would those crimes be any more under-reported now than in the past? You can't just say that you don't trust the data and then make a claim without any actual supporting data at all. That's not how this works. Let's just take shootings. If murders are down, then surely shootings are down at roughly a commensurate level? So, maybe something like 30% from last year, 40% from the height of the pandemic? Or do you suppose that Philly's criminals have suddenly developed bad aim?

Don’t need data when you can see it clearly. There’s more packages being delivered now that what was done in the past, and you can see retail theft up from businesses leaving city and locking up their products in stores. That doesn’t just happen from a small uptick in crime.

I’m saying those crimes have always been under reported. For instance, my friend and I each got our windshields smashed and didn’t call police bc we didn’t think they’d do anything. We also don’t call police when our packages are stolen. My hairstylist had his car window smashed and he did call the police on the homeless drugie who he saw do it, and the police refused to arrest him. These are all petty crimes that don’t get reported, and my theory is they’ve increased bc I can see all the posts on next door talking about package thefts, and I can see all the windows smashed throughout the neighborhood. We live in an era of youth lawlessness in the city. It is what it is.

I’m not talking about gun crimes or murders. I’m talking petty crimes that the police aren’t doing anything about bc the DA isn’t prosecuting them right now.

[Frontst17]

Crime in general spikes during the pandemic I think it’s a great sign homicides have decreased so much I have to imagine other crimes have decreased along with it I’ll have to find those stats. It makes absolute sense though things have begun to normalize as we distance ourselves from COVID. I think it was incredibly reactionary for stores to be closing at the rate they are/were. Personally I think it’s a cost cutting move for these larger national retailers who saw activity in their stores drop and the value of their real estate drop. It’s easier for them to close up and fire their employees for a year or two then open new locations and reap the positive publicity of “coming back to the city and providing new jobs!”.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Mtphilly

Yep, shootings are down at roughly a commensurate level. I blame social media/citizen app for why people think crime has gone up when all the stats say it’s gone down.

This, 100%. It's completely about hyper-awareness (and constant sharing of incidents on social media platforms).

Even incidents that often occur weeks or months ago are re-shared. It has a major impact on perceptions and psyche, and it constantly reinforces negative stimga.

[Skintreesnail]

How legit do folks think these numbers are?
https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadel...burban-growth/

I think we're usually underestimated until the official census, but more than 50k seems like a lot. I suppose it's people moving out of NE philly neighborhoods? It certainly goes against what I see in south Philadelphia, and i know NoLibs/fishtown continues to grow. I also thought NW philly neighborhoods are seeing an influx.

[jaysb]

Originally Posted by Skintreesnail

How legit do folks think these numbers are?
https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadel...burban-growth/

I think we're usually underestimated until the official census, but more than 50k seems like a lot. I suppose it's people moving out of NE philly neighborhoods? It certainly goes against what I see in south Philadelphia, and i know NoLibs/fishtown continues to grow. I also thought NW philly neighborhoods are seeing an influx.

I think we had some discourse when last years came out. These are just estimates and are fairly inaccurate. You can see from the 2020 actual census vs these yearly estimates that the estimates are likely undercounted.

Given the building up of greater Center City one can find these numbers hard to believe, but it's entirely possible we are losing people on the other end of the socioeconomic scale seeking a safer place for themselves.

[mja]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

Don’t need data when you can see it clearly. There’s more packages being delivered now that what was done in the past, and you can see retail theft up from businesses leaving city and locking up their products in stores. That doesn’t just happen from a small uptick in crime.

I’m saying those crimes have always been under reported. For instance, my friend and I each got our windshields smashed and didn’t call police bc we didn’t think they’d do anything. We also don’t call police when our packages are stolen. My hairstylist had his car window smashed and he did call the police on the homeless drugie who he saw do it, and the police refused to arrest him. These are all petty crimes that don’t get reported, and my theory is they’ve increased bc I can see all the posts on next door talking about package thefts, and I can see all the windows smashed throughout the neighborhood. We live in an era of youth lawlessness in the city. It is what it is.

I’m not talking about gun crimes or murders. I’m talking petty crimes that the police aren’t doing anything about bc the DA isn’t prosecuting them right now.

So if they've always been under-reported, then any decline in the numbers would still represent a decline, assuming the rate of under-reporting held roughly the same, right?

And none of this means anything, which is exactly what we're talking about. All of this is your perception, which is fed by a constant cycle of doom posting by social and traditional media.

I've lived in and around Center City for over 20 years. The only time my car window was knocked out was around 2004, I had foolishly left out a big case of CDs at 13th and Callowhill. I had some dumb teenagers slash 3 of my tires sometime around 2010. My wife was pick-pocketed at Miele about 10 years ago. Those are the most significant crimes that I've experienced, and they all happened 10+ years ago. Porch piracy happens literally everywhere, and is essentially a new genre of petty theft that exists only because of the rise of online retail. You should absolutely file a police report when it happens, as I did the last time it happened to me, and I was able to forward video of the thief to the investigator. There are multiple studies showing that retail theft hasn't really increased, despite protestations by retailers to the contrary. It just so happens to be a convenient scapegoat for poor decision-making and the changing reality of how people shop. A (non-working) ATM across the street from me was in fact blown up at the height of the pandemic, but nothing even remotely like that has happened since, and if anything, I've seen far less smashed windows over the last year in my neighborhood. I think I actually just saw some glass on the street for the first time in 2024 the other day.

Some advice: Get off of the doom cycle, it distorts reality.

[PhilliesPhan]

Originally Posted by Skintreesnail

How legit do folks think these numbers are?
https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadel...burban-growth/

I think we're usually underestimated until the official census, but more than 50k seems like a lot. I suppose it's people moving out of NE philly neighborhoods? It certainly goes against what I see in south Philadelphia, and i know NoLibs/fishtown continues to grow. I also thought NW philly neighborhoods are seeing an influx.

I also think the estimates are BS. We'll see what the numbers truly are come the 2030 Census.

I can personally vouch that Northwest Philly is booming right now. Several new apartment buildings have risen along Ridge Avenue in my neighborhood, Roxborough, and nicer homes are still selling in a matter of days. With Manayunk being almost completely built out, people are looking up the hill for homes. Germantown, especially Southwest and Northeast, also seems to be going through a long-overdue building boom right now. Even the Dogtown section of East Mount Airy (bounded by Gorgas, Upsal, Germantown, and Chew) is being thoroughly redeveloped at the moment.

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by mja

So if they've always been under-reported, then any decline in the numbers would still represent a decline, assuming the rate of under-reporting held roughly the same, right?

And none of this means anything, which is exactly what we're talking about. All of this is your perception, which is fed by a constant cycle of doom posting by social and traditional media.

I've lived in and around Center City for over 20 years. The only time my car window was knocked out was around 2004, I had foolishly left out a big case of CDs at 13th and Callowhill. I had some dumb teenagers slash 3 of my tires sometime around 2010. My wife was pick-pocketed at Miele about 10 years ago. Those are the most significant crimes that I've experienced, and they all happened 10+ years ago. Porch piracy happens literally everywhere, and is essentially a new genre of petty theft that exists only because of the rise of online retail. You should absolutely file a police report when it happens, as I did the last time it happened to me, and I was able to forward video of the thief to the investigator. There are multiple studies showing that retail theft hasn't really increased, despite protestations by retailers to the contrary. It just so happens to be a convenient scapegoat for poor decision-making and the changing reality of how people shop. A (non-working) ATM across the street from me was in fact blown up at the height of the pandemic, but nothing even remotely like that has happened since, and if anything, I've seen far less smashed windows over the last year in my neighborhood. I think I actually just saw some glass on the street for the first time in 2024 the other day.

Some advice: Get off of the doom cycle, it distorts reality.

Not necessarily a decline just bc the numbers say it. I think the petty crimes have increased so much and people lost faith that police/DA will do anything, that they’ve stopped reporting. Again, you don’t get companies pulling out of the city bc crime has improved or bc there’s just a small uptick in crime.

You project a lot of assumptions. I’m not on a “doom” cycle. I have a positive outlook for Philly, but I’m being realistic about the overall picture on crime. It’s much higher than the stats show. Living in center city, the area with the most resources and police protections isn’t going to give you a balanced perspective of what people in other areas see each day.

Let’s end this now. We are off topic, and it’s not adding value to go further.

[Gatorade_Jim]

Interesting context to the recent closing on Walnut.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/s...ng-stores.html

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by Gatorade_Jim

Interesting context to the recent closing on Walnut.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/s...ng-stores.html

You mean it didn't close because of crime?!

But yea, I figured the brand was having big picture issues (kind of like Scotch & Soda).

[el don]

Its up over 30 percent from last year. Does no one know how to do research anymore? https://www.phillypolice.com/crimestats/

Check the weekly 2024 reports.

Looks like commercial burglary is up, and aggravated assault without a gun as well. Huge decreases in robbery, rape, and auto thefts so far.

I still think convicted thieves should have a hand chopped off.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan

I also think the estimates are BS. We'll see what the numbers truly are come the 2030 Census.

I can personally vouch that Northwest Philly is booming right now. Several new apartment buildings have risen along Ridge Avenue in my neighborhood, Roxborough, and nicer homes are still selling in a matter of days. With Manayunk being almost completely built out, people are looking up the hill for homes. Germantown, especially Southwest and Northeast, also seems to be going through a long-overdue building boom right now. Even the Dogtown section of East Mount Airy (bounded by Gorgas, Upsal, Germantown, and Chew) is being thoroughly redeveloped at the moment.

This does not mean people arent leaving. Lots of lower class and working class people move out of the city for safety and schools and all these new apts are mostly filled by singles or maybe young couples/roomates- they are not necessarily families. So we are losing families and children but still attracting singles into $1800/month studio apartments. I can tell you in my area children are few and far between- a lot of the people who live up here are long time home owners whose kids are grown and gone. I'd imagine 30 or 40 years ago this area was full of families and children playing in the streets. There are only about 5 kids on my entire block and two are mine. Many folks raising families have left the city or the area in general.

[Gatorade_Jim]

Originally Posted by cardeza

This does not mean people arent leaving. Lots of lower class and working class people move out of the city for safety and schools and all these new apts are mostly filled by singles or maybe young couples/roomates- they are not necessarily families. So we are losing families and children but still attracting singles into $1800/month studio apartments. I can tell you in my area children are few and far between- a lot of the people who live up here are long time home owners whose kids are grown and gone. I'd imagine 30 or 40 years ago this area was full of families and children playing in the streets. There are only about 5 kids on my entire block and two are mine. Many folks raising families have left the city or the area in general.

While I can't comment on whether your observation is true or not, it certainly is true that Americans today have fewer children than they did 30 or 40 years ago.

It seems to me that fewer families, and more one or two person middle and upper-middle class households, is good for the city. More funding for the school system with fewer children to serve seems to be a recipe for better outcomes.

[Knight Hospitaller]

^ even assuming that you may be right in the short term, you certainly aren’t in the long-term. A lack of families means fewer future residents. You can’t get your population from somewhere else indefinitely.

[Gatorade_Jim]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

^ even assuming that you may be right in the short term, you certainly aren’t in the long-term. A lack of families means fewer future residents. You can’t get your population from somewhere else indefinitely.

I’m inclined to disagree with your second sentence, although I would be curious to know how what Philadelphia’s in/out migration is versus peer cities. My understanding is that our population growth over the past 20 years hasn’t been from kids being born here and staying, it’s been from people in other parts of PA and from the rest of the country moving here. I see no reason to think that trend can’t continue.

[Knight Hospitaller]

Originally Posted by Gatorade_Jim

I’m inclined to disagree with your second sentence, although I would be curious to know how what Philadelphia’s in/out migration is versus peer cities. My understanding is that our population growth over the past 20 years hasn’t been from kids being born here and staying, it’s been from people in other parts of PA and from the rest of the country moving here. I see no reason to think that trend can’t continue.

There’s a dystopian sound to your position. Sort of like it’s the job of the provinces to provide population to a demographically challenged capital that doesn’t answer to nature. Imagine how many people Philadelphia would have if Philadelphians both had children and gave them a reason to stay (and family networks are one very good reason to do so.)

[summersm343]

Again… yearly estimates are literal bullshit. The city lost 50,000 people in 3 years? I mean come on… it’s so highly inaccurate it’s funny at this point.

How on earth did 50,000 people leave? Even if we assume these were all families of 4… where did 12,500 families go? Does anyone have any idea how insanely expensive and competitive the real estate market has been the past 3-4 years? How are people “on the low end of the economic spectrum” moving and affording anything at the moment? Rent or buy. Where are they moving to? Philadelphia is one of the lowest cost cities in the entire country when it comes to housing affordability.

It’s not accurate. If you told me Philadelphia lost 5,000-10,000 over the past 3 years? OK, I could believe that… 50,000 is so laughably inaccurate.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by cardeza

This does not mean people arent leaving. Lots of lower class and working class people move out of the city for safety and schools and all these new apts are mostly filled by singles or maybe young couples/roomates- they are not necessarily families. So we are losing families and children but still attracting singles into $1800/month studio apartments. I can tell you in my area children are few and far between- a lot of the people who live up here are long time home owners whose kids are grown and gone. I'd imagine 30 or 40 years ago this area was full of families and children playing in the streets. There are only about 5 kids on my entire block and two are mine. Many folks raising families have left the city or the area in general.

Weird. Where do you hang out? Go to Fitler Square or some of the Rowhome blocks of Rittenhouse Square and you’ll see plenty of kids. Same with Society Hill. Same with parts of Graduate Hospital. Same with Queen Village and Bella Vista. Same with Pennsport. Same with East Passyunk and Passyunk Square. I know a lot of the lower South Philly neighborhoods like Whitman, Marconi Plaza and Packer Park are loaded with kids because I know someone raising her family down there. Spruce Hill has plenty of kids if you walk around there. Walk around Mount Airy or Chestnut Hill and you’ll see plenty of kids. Not saying your observation is totally inaccurate, and sure, there are probably less families in the city today than say, 1970, but I’m sure this is a pretty common phenomenon with most older US legacy cities at this point.

[mja]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Weird. Where do you hang out? Go to Fitler Square or some of the Rowhome blocks of Rittenhouse Square and you’ll see plenty of kids. Same with Society Hill. Same with parts of Graduate Hospital. Same with Queen Village and Bella Vista. Same with Pennsport. Same with East Passyunk and Passyunk Square. I know a lot of the lower South Philly neighborhoods like Whitman, Marconi Plaza and Packer Park are loaded with kids because I know someone raising her family down there. Spruce Hill has plenty of kids if you walk around there. Walk around Mount Airy or Chestnut Hill and you’ll see plenty of kids. Not saying your observation is totally inaccurate, and sure, there are probably less families in the city today than say, 1970, but I’m sure this is a pretty common phenomenon with most older US legacy cities at this point.

I'm happy to report that there are plenty of families with young children in Fairmount as well.