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Originally Posted by the urban politician
Crime is a tad bit out of control and creeping into areas (downtown) where it traditionally wasn't a problem.
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Actually, the majority of downtown and the north side is still under even the 2010 rate of violent crime minus a few tracts and even under 2017 and 2018. What you actually meant to say is that the gun crimes (whether being caught with one, or robberies using one, or shootings, etc) is up downtown quite a lot in the last few years - which is 100% truth. However, it is not really up in areas like Lincoln Park, North Center, Lakeview, etc - pretty much the same as it's been in those every year in the last decade.
Saying "crime is XXX" is extremely broad and usually leads to inaccurate information. Carjacking is a robbery, keep in mind. And the amount of robbery for downtown isn't really actually higher than years like 2016, 2017, etc. These criminals have merely replaced other modes of robbing people with that mode (carjacking) of robbing people. But when you read the headlines from various outlets, they will make you believe all types of robbery is up which is not really the truth if you actually care to dive into the data.
Here's an example of why you should be careful about what you read. Robberies rate per 100K in Near North Side+Loop. 2021 population uses 2020 census. 2012-2019 uses ACS estimates:
2021: 389.77 per 100K (576 robberies)
2020: 295.04 per 100K (436 robberies)
2019: 510.71 per 100K (674 robberies)
2018: 548.4 per 100K (700 robberies)
2017: 641.97 per 100K (801 robberies)
2016: 497.72 per 100K (604 robberies)
2015: 334.02 per 100K (398 robberies)
2014: 290.57 per 100K (334 robberies)
2013: 351.43 per 100K (393 robberies)
2012: 437.88 per 100K (468 robberies)
2010: 563.01 per 100K (618 robberies)
2017 here was actually the highest in terms of rate and total robberies.
Now we can look at robberies with a gun (RWG) specifically:
2021: 97.44 per 100K (144 RWG)
2020: 45.34 per 100K (67 RWG)
2019: 69.19 per 100K (92 RWG)
2018: 90.1 per 100K (115 RWG)
2017: 105.79 per 100K (132 RWG)
2016: 100.53 per 100K (122 RWG)
2015: 63.78 per 100K (76 RWG)
2014: 45.24 per 100K (52 RWG)
2013: 48.29 per 100K (54 RWG)
2012: 64.56 per 100K (69 RWG)
2010: 85.64 per 100K (94 RWG)
From a rate perspective, 2016 and 2017 were actually worse for this than 2021 and 2018 wasn't that far behind. But still a bit worse than 2019 or 2012 thru 2015.
And by the way, just for reference, with a much lower population than today:
2003: 154 RWG
2002: 147 RWG
This is what is meant by nuance. Robberies aren't really up compared to a lot of years in the last decade or so on average, but robberies with a gun specifically are. But they're still less than they were in 2016 or 2017 adjusted for population (rate). With that being said, I don't condone any of that even if it's lower than say 2017. But it's important to put things into perspective. Did we "forget" about 2016 and 2017? Again that's no excuse for 2020 - present, but let's be factual here. More people are hyper aware of crime now thanks to Police Scanner Twitter and Citizen telling us about every single crime occurring in the city as it occurred. Even 5 years ago people weren't THIS hyper aware.
It would be nice to have 2013 or 2014 numbers again AT MOST. Unfortunately the majority of cities in the US are undergoing a bit of a violence increase since compared before the pandemic. Maybe I'll publish my shootings findings - yes shootings are up downtown for sure. There are a few years before the pandemic with spikes though. So the question is, will it do like it did before and reduce the following year or later in the year?
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People are leaving the region in droves.
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This was based on Census estimates that were proven to be completely wrong and shoddy reporting. You don't have to continue parroting information that was already shown to be very false.
The city gained 51K people and the region gained 150K between 2010 and 2020. Now the Census says they had a statistically significant undercount for Illinois and the state probably gained close to 250K people and very possible Chicago could have actually gained close to 100K people.
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Yet rents are soaring, and people are also arriving in droves.
Yet $200k households are moving into the city at a very high rate.
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People have ALWAYS arrived in droves in Chicago just like every other major city. People literally move out every day of every city and people literally move in every day in every major city. That should be common sense for anybody who understands cities, migration, etc:
https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/
The population along the lake and in a little bit, continuously from Hyde Park or Woodlawn to Rogers Park increased by over 100K from 2010 to 2020. Downtown gained a lot of people. These gains are probably more now that the Census admits to a significant undercount. Is there any wonder why rents would be going up when some developers probably relied too much on shoddy estimate data to show that these areas were either reducing in population when they weren't, or weren't gaining as many people as they actually were? Supply and demand.
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Yet teens are shooting eachother to death every damn day on the west and south sides.
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Unfortunately this isn't anything new. Hopefully they find a way to get it down
FYI Crains picked up the story:
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg...rink-after-all
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