CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Skipping pension payments when the market was achieving massive returns makes economic sense.

No, it doesn’t. Because then you have less when the market eventually corrects. Just like nobody advises to stop 401k contributions because the market is up.

Originally Posted by Vlajos

CPS pensions were 100% funded in 1999 when the pension holidays were in effect. Vallas was gone from CPS by 2001. CPS pensions were still 90% funded in 2006, 5 years after Vallas left which is actuarially acceptable.

This is exactly why it doesn’t make economic sense. After he left, the market kept booming and we were going backwards on the funding ratio. If we paid in during Vallas’ tenure, it wouldn’t have gone down to 90% and we would have been in better shape before the 2008 crash. It’s not all his fault, but he set the precedent.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

No, it doesn’t. Because then you have less when the market eventually corrects. Just like nobody advises to stop 401k contributions because the market is up.



This is exactly why it doesn’t make economic sense. After he left, the market kept booming and we were going backwards on the funding ratio. If we paid in during Vallas’ tenure, it wouldn’t have gone down to 90% and we would have been in better shape before the 2008 crash. It’s not all his fault, but he set the precedent.

Of course it did make sense. The pension assets met the liabilities. A pension is not a 401k which 100% accrues to the owner. A pension is a guarantee of a certain payment and the existing funds were 100% able to meet the obligations at the time. Even CTU agreed to the pension holidays. They should have stopped holidays in the mid 2000s, no one did that. Not the state, the mayor or CTU.

All of this goes to why pensions should be eliminated in the first place.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Agree 100%. Johnson is the worst candidate running.

"Hey everybody! Let's have a 3.5% city tax, after property taxes were raised and 95% of the city was PISSED. Including those in lower and lower middle income neighborhoods. This will certainly make people happy."

As someone who lived in NYC for many years and was subjected to a 3.5% tax, I can tell you that I have no idea where all that money even went. People from all political parties talked about it all the time too - most people no matter what side of the political spectrum they were on thought it was a waste. I am not a "no tax" guy but you cannot tax your way out of everything.

I really don't think Johnson knows what he's doing. Hopefully he doesn't make a run off.

[tjp]

I'm definitely not voting for Johnson, but hasn't he said over and over again that the 3.5% tax on income over $100K is not part of his plan?

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Chuy has 40 years of experience doing nothing.

Lightfoot has been a terrible Mayor, allowing crime to explode, downtown to be decimated by rioters, caving to CTU, etc

Johnson is a stooge for the CTU. And apparently loves every form of tax ever imagined.

Vallas has proven to be an able administrator. Skipping pension payments when the market was achieving massive returns makes economic sense. And it was approved by the state and CTU. CPS pensions were 100% funded in 1999 when the pension holidays were in effect. Vallas was gone from CPS by 2001. CPS pensions were still 90% funded in 2006, 5 years after Vallas left which is actuarially acceptable.

Given Chicago's weak mayor system, is there a chance we could put the blame for much of the increase in crime where it belongs? I was under the apparently mistaken impression that we have a police force. Seems they've been woefully inadequate for a number of years now, almost as if their union has forced a devolution into a political game of bullshit. Fine, the fraternal order hates LL. You know what? Fuck the FOP. Fuck the CPD leadership in general. And yes, fuck a good percentage of the rank and file who have allowed the political game of their union and leadership to cause their work performance to go down the proverbial toilet.

Seriously, this is beyond ridiculous. We need a complete overhaul of CPD leadership. Maybe the mayor can really get that to happen, maybe not. But something's got to change.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by tjp

I'm definitely not voting for Johnson, but hasn't he said over and over again that the 3.5% tax on income over $100K is not part of his plan?

Can you show me? And I specifically remember him saying that it was. Did someone finally talk sense into him?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by glowrock

Given Chicago's weak mayor system, is there a chance we could put the blame for much of the increase in crime where it belongs? I was under the apparently mistaken impression that we have a police force. Seems they've been woefully inadequate for a number of years now, almost as if their union has forced a devolution into a political game of bullshit. Fine, the fraternal order hates LL. You know what? Fuck the FOP. Fuck the CPD leadership in general. And yes, fuck a good percentage of the rank and file who have allowed the political game of their union and leadership to cause their work performance to go down the proverbial toilet.

Seriously, this is beyond ridiculous. We need a complete overhaul of CPD leadership. Maybe the mayor can really get that to happen, maybe not. But something's got to change.

Aaron (Glowrock)

As someone who tracks crime stats all over the country - almost everywhere is struggling with violent crime increases. Murder in Chicago has been decreasing for a bit now, and while robbery is surging it's still under what it was in 2013 when the city had some of the lowest crime since the mid 1960s. Also below 2016 and 2017, and about the same as 2018.

And that's not accepting it, but it also shows that it's a much larger issue across much of the US. But for whatever reason, these types of things are talked about in every city without acknowledging the surge in violent crime everywhere. You have KG's favorite Miami right now with a nearly identical murder rate as Chicago so far this year, and Orlando has a higher murder rate than the west side of Chicago with almost the same population. I'm not sure where the blame is to be had, but not recognizing the national trend of a violent crime increase is a little disingenuous.

But hopefully places see a decrease. Some are not as lucky like Dallas, who are seeing increases in murders and the rates are above Chicago, Indianapolis, etc right now.

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by marothisu

As someone who tracks crime stats all over the country - almost everywhere is struggling with increases. And that's not accepting it, but it also shows that it's a much larger issue across much of the US. But for whatever reason, these types of things are talked about in every city without acknowledging the surge in violent crime everywhere. You have KG's favorite Miami right now with a nearly identical murder rate as Chicago so far this year, and Orlando has a higher murder rate than the west side of Chicago with almost the same population.

I'm not sure where the blame is to be had, but not recognizing the national trend of a violent crime increase is a little disingenuous.

Very fair point, and one I managed to overlook, unfortunately. Simple fact is there are many factors that have gone into national increases in crime the last few years, I have to think a general lack of giving a damn by many police agencies being one of them. Almost as if they're generally giving society a huge middle finger for the national riots resulting from the actions of one of their own bad apples.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by glowrock

Very fair point, and one I managed to overlook, unfortunately. Simple fact is there are many factors that have gone into national increases in crime the last few years, I have to think a general lack of giving a damn by many police agencies being one of them. Almost as if they're generally giving society a huge middle finger for the national riots working from side of their own bad apples.

Aaron (Glowrock)

I think there is a lot of political crap going on. Some police have felt their hands tied with various things so they stopped caring as much. I think others were like "you want to defund me? I'll show you what defunding will look like.." I mean it's an entire industry at the end of the day and what happened in 2020 scared the crap out of many who wanted to keep their jobs. But I won't delve too deep into this.

I just don't think it's fair to put all the blame on them or anything. There's a lot of things going on that have led to nationwide increases.

[sentinel]

Seems like this might be a good idea here in Chicago too:

How one city cut gun violence in half and may become a model around the country

Omaha, Nebraska, has seen a marked decrease in shootings.
ByElla McCarthy
Video byJessie DiMartino
February 22, 2023, 4:16 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/US/omaha-nebr...=pocket-newtab

'More than 6,000 people have been fatally shot in the U.S. so far this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive.

While many lawmakers debate various solutions -- restrictions on firearms, increased mental health funding, investment for youth -- ABC News recently talked to community leaders in Omaha, Nebraska, where officials have seen a steady drop in reported gun violence over the past 15 years.

Police and advocates attribute some of that to Omaha 360 -- an initiative started in 2009 by the Empowerment Network that involves nonprofits, neighborhood associations, churches and local law enforcement.

"It really did help to build a lot of trust between the police and the community and just amongst these various organizations," Scott Gray, the deputy chief of the Omaha Police Department, told ABC News. "Empowerment Network is the hub, because it kind of pulls together all of these different organizations that by themselves tend to not stay connected and more effective."

The number of reported shooting victims in Omaha, which only includes people who survived, dropped from 246 in 2009 to 121 in 2022, with the lowest at 90 victims in 2017, according to data from the Omaha Police Department.

Citywide shooting incidents involving an individual or group in that same time dropped from 191 to 90, with the lowest at 77 incidents in 2018. (One incident can include multiple victims.) And homicide clearance rates were at 87% in 2022. The Omaha Police Department follows the FBI's definition of a cleared case, which is by arrest or by exceptional means, like the death of a known suspect.

Overall homicides in Omaha have also gone down over the last 15 years, according to police department data. Those statistics, which do not delineate different types of homicides, show that average annual homicides fell from about 38 from 2007-2012 to about 28 from 2017-2022.'

[SIGSEGV]

I wanted to vote for Kam, but since we don't have ranked choice (can we please get that?), I'm probably going to vote for Chuy as the least bad (imo) option who has a chance of making the runoff. He's certainly not perfect but he also is the most likely to not get eaten alive by city council.

Now I need to figure out who I want to vote for Alderman in the new 34th ward, though I suspect Conway will win regardless.

[Kenmore]

i don't know anyone concerned about crime, total suburban media driven mindset

everyone is pissed about the CTA sucking now tho

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by Kenmore

i don't know anyone concerned about crime, total suburban media driven mindset

everyone is pissed about the CTA sucking now tho

You really believe that? Shockingly ignorant statement if you do.

[tjp]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Can you show me? And I specifically remember him saying that it was. Did someone finally talk sense into him?

I was wrong to say he's said it "over and over again," but he did Tweet this:

https://twitter.com/Brandon4Chicago/...11633065672705

And there's no mention of a 3.5% tax on his website or in any of his press releases, from what I can see.

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I wanted to vote for Kam, but since we don't have ranked choice (can we please get that?), I'm probably going to vote for Chuy as the least bad (imo) option who has a chance of making the runoff. He's certainly not perfect but he also is the most likely to not get eaten alive by city council.

Pretty much where I'm at as well.

Not a great field, and Chuy seems best overall bet among those with a shot.

[Steely Dan]

An exceptionally weak field.

Of the 5 that are polling in double digits, Lighfoot, Johnson, and Wilson are automatic hard "NO"s for me.

Vallas and Chuy are the only ones of those with a shot that I find remotely palatable.

So I guess I'll be casting my two votes for Vallas tomorrow.

[marothisu]

I took a sun times quiz - my top 3 were...Buckner, Sawyer, and Vallas. Lightfoot was dead last. Chuy wasn't high on the list. But I'm pretty sure that guy has gotten more moderate of late.

[Kngkyle]

A large poll from 1983 Labs conducted over the past week has the final breakdown for today's election:

24% Paul Vallas
18% Lori Lightfoot
16% Jesus Chuy Garcia
14% Brandon Johnson
12% Willie Wilson
6% Sophia King
5% Jamal Green
3% Kam Buckner
2% Other/Write-In

And then for hypothetical runoffs:

43% Vallas
38% Garcia
19% Undecided

44% Vallas
31% Johnson
25% Undecided

49% Vallas
30% Lightfoot
20% Undecided

54% Garcia
23% Lightfoot
22% Undecided

https://www.1983labs.com/chicago-final

Looks like Chuy is the only one with a chance at taking down Vallas in the runoff and even that is more unlikely than likely. Lightfoot is almost certainly toast.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Looks like Chuy is the only one with a chance at taking down Vallas in the runoff and even that is more unlikely than likely. Lightfoot is almost certainly toast.

As long as Johnson is nowhere near city government I will call that a win.

[CrazyCres]

Another new poll by victory research shows this:

Paul Vallas – 26.8%

Brandon Johnson – 20.2%

Lori Lightfoot – 18.7%

Jesús “Chuy” García – 15.6%

Willie Wilson – 11.4%

The poll was conducted Feb. 24-26, and was made up of 806 likely Chicago voters. The margin of error was 3.45%, according to Victory research.

Link: https://www.nbcchicago.com/chicago-m...-show/3082687/