Rapid Transit

[Innsertnamehere]

Yup. It’s like saying a Honda Civic costs $90,000 because you have to include 10 years of insurance, gas, and maintenance. Are those costs related? Yes. But nobody would say it costs that much. They would say that it’s $25k, because that’s how much it costs to buy.

Strict construction costs here are still $1billion. $2.32 billion once you add property, design, and vehicle costs. That’s the comparable cost.

The comparable cost of the Kitchener LRT is $818 million, which should be compared to the $2.32 billion. Hamilton makes sense to be more expensive as the project is getting built a decade later, which with construction cost inflation at ~5%, accounts for a huge chunk of that difference, and for which the Hamilton LRT has always been a more complex project through a denser urban environment with much larger property requirements and infrastructure needs (longwood rd rebuild, rail grade separation in the east end, etc.). A big reason Waterloo was so cheap is because half the line runs in a rail corridor with no demolition costs and much cheaper construction forms. Hamilton doesn’t have that luxury.

The comparable should be Hurontario which has similar infrastructure needs and a similar timeline and costs come out quite similar.

[HamiltonBoyInToronto]

This entire fiasco is only happening because this is Hamilton...there are people out there ...in this city and outside this city ...that, for some reason, just don't like Hamilton.... We have been cut at the knees for decades now by politicians and self serving citizens...

[ScreamingViking]

While I don't disagree with you about opinions of Hamilton -- which seem to be changing for the better, slowly... the "self serving citizens" not so much -- transit projects often get a rough ride, some deservedly so but even the ones that make sense from an economic perspective have detractors.

And it seems like it's the first steps that are the most difficult in medium-sized cities planning on moving beyond a basic bus network to something higher order. KW's system had its critics, London's BRT plans have had a rough ride, the Hurontario LRT will stop at Brampton's border because its council disagreed with the plan. Even Ottawa has had its debates over rail (including a cancelled project) despite high transit use and decades running a successful transitway system that was clearly beyond its capacity.

I don't think Hamilton is that different.

[Innsertnamehere]

For comparison, the Hurontario LRT final cost is $4.6 billion, for a 19km line. That includes construction, financing, operation, and maintenance for 30 years. My understanding is that this cost includes the same stuff that the $3.7 billion number for Hamilton does.

So that's $242 million per km of LRT. Hamilton LRT at $3.7 billion is $284 million / km. Very comparable, especially since Hamilton is through a much more complex urban environment, will have higher frequencies and ridership, and is subject to several more years of inflation.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

For comparison, the Hurontario LRT final cost is $4.6 billion, for a 19km line. That includes construction, financing, operation, and maintenance for 30 years. My understanding is that this cost includes the same stuff that the $3.7 billion number for Hamilton does.

So that's $242 million per km of LRT. Hamilton LRT at $3.7 billion is $284 million / km. Very comparable, especially since Hamilton is through a much more complex urban environment, will have higher frequencies and ridership, and is subject to several more years of inflation.

That is exactly the kind of comparison people need to be making.

These things aren't built in their own bubbles. There will be differences due to design issues specific to a route (bridges and tunnels, older infrastructure needing to be moved and replaced beneath which is probably more of a factor in Hamilton than Mississauga, etc.) but for systems built within a few years of each other the costs for things like an average station should be largely similar for different lines, costs of the tracks and track bed, the electrical service and signals, etc.

[Innsertnamehere]

I recall the same issue with the gas plants scandal back in the day - the AG report included 30 years of higher operating costs for the plants that replaced the cancelled plant, which inflated the cancellation cost number to $1 billion. Sure those costs will occur - but are operating costs really fair to include? Most people separate capital and operating costs for a reason.

[TheRitsman]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

For comparison, the Hurontario LRT final cost is $4.6 billion, for a 19km line. That includes construction, financing, operation, and maintenance for 30 years. My understanding is that this cost includes the same stuff that the $3.7 billion number for Hamilton does.

So that's $242 million per km of LRT. Hamilton LRT at $3.7 billion is $284 million / km. Very comparable, especially since Hamilton is through a much more complex urban environment, will have higher frequencies and ridership, and is subject to several more years of inflation.

Very fair, however, the current government said it would be $5.5 billion. Meaning Hamilton would be over $425 millon / km. Where the heck is that number coming from?

[ChildishGavino]

Well, I won't be getting much done around 9am tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/JoeyColeman/stat...75568584568840

"#HamOnt infrastructure announcement to be held Friday at 9am involving all levels of government"



With the Labour Minister and both Infrastructure Ministers involved, could this be what we've been waiting for?

[craftbeerdad]

Oh hot dang, last Christmas was a lump of coal, could we actually get a present this year regarding the LRT?

[ChildishGavino]

Originally Posted by craftbeerdad

Oh hot dang, last Christmas was a lump of coal, could we actually get a present this year regarding the LRT?

I'm waiting with very bated breath right now. It's got all the right pieces! Plus, what else could they be announcing?

[matt602]

I'm not expecting much since my anticipation for this mess is at all time lows. Infrastructure announcement could be a number of things that have nothing to do with LRT.

[TheRitsman]

My bets:

Option 1: The cancellation is cancelled. We plan to uncancel the cancelled project, until after we get re-elected because we plan to call a spring election. After which we will recancel the cancelled cancellation.

Option 2: BRT

Option 3: LRT but only to Queenstown circle, with possible expansion later

Option 4: LRT fully funded, in part by federal dollars

Option 5: Something unrelated to LRT at all. 403 expansion probably.

[LikeHamilton]

It does not say where. That might help.

Maybe airport expansion? No needs the federal Transportation Minister.

Adding the missing 2 lanes of Hwy 6 be the airport?

Not MIP. I checked and they know nothing.

Not enough big ministers.

And anywhere from 3 to 5 billion for LRT would get both the Premier and Prime Minister.

[ChildishGavino]

There is also the possibility those ministers and the Premier & PM are busy with other things, too. New cases are on the rise and most importantly, a vaccine is coming. Both first ministers have been very busy on planning how to get vaccines out to 38,000,000 people, and this announcement can (and will) be made just fine without them. Some sort of announcement has been teased since at least the 8th of October as "very soon", which my politicians' standards means in a few months, which is now.

I don't think it has to do with highways 403 or 6 either, while I didn't immediately dismiss the 403 because the MP for the West End-Dundas-Ancaster will be there, why would they make an announcement about a provincial concern with so many federal politicians involved? And unless there's a very large project which somehow none of us have caught wind of for the months it would've been in the works, I doubt tomorrow will be about the Airport, either. If it were, wouldn't it make sense to invite the M(P)P for the mountain as well?

I remain hopeful and optimistic. The past 361 days have been agony, and all signs are pointing to some good news indeed.

[ZTrade]

According to the owner of that twitter account, it's not LRT. Takes too much effort to screenshot and post an image to this website, but it's at the bottom of that twitter thread.

This is most likely regarding Cootes Paradise.

[Innsertnamehere]

yup. No people important enough to announce LRT. The transpo minister and even likely the premier would be in attendance for that. It's deputy ministers instead - likely something minor.

[ChildishGavino]

It's about funding to renovate the Griffin House in Ancaster. I don't think anybody was expecting that. I'd hardly call that an infrastructure announcement, but now I know why the MP for the West End, Dundas, & Ancaster is there.

[King&James]

Originally Posted by ChildishGavino

Well, I won't be getting much done around 9am tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/JoeyColeman/stat...75568584568840

"#HamOnt infrastructure announcement to be held Friday at 9am involving all levels of government"



With the Labour Minister and both Infrastructure Ministers involved, could this be what we've been waiting for?

https://www.newswire.ca/news-release...847265402.html

Today, the Honourable Filomena Tassi, Minister of Labour and Member of Parliament for Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, on behalf of the Honourable Catherine McKenna, Minister of Infrastructure and Communities; Donna Skelly, Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade and Member of Provincial Parliament for Flamborough-Glanbrook, on behalf of the Honourable Laurie Scott, Ontario's Minister of Infrastructure; and His Worship Fred Eisenberger, Mayor of the City of Hamilton, announced funding for the restoration of the Griffin House National Historic Site.

These upgrades to an important cultural and historical landmark of Black settlement in Upper Canada will improve accessibility for all visitors, while restoring the heritage features of the house built in 1827. Griffin House was owned by Enerals Griffin, a Black immigrant from Virginia who was likely born a slave but settled as a free man in Canada in 1834. The home remained in his family for 154 years.

The Government of Canada is investing $399,960 in this project through the Community, Culture and Recreation Infrastructure Stream (CCRIS) of the Investing in Canada plan. The Government of Ontario is providing $333,267, while the City of Hamilton is contributing $266,673.

[LikeHamilton]

What? Where? Never heard of it!

Most likely in Donna's area.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by LikeHamilton

What? Where? Never heard of it!

Most likely in Donna's area.

Most likely this is the first time Skelly has heard of it too.