The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by Changing City

You don't get compensated for the house price, only for the structure. Most house price inflation is land value.

Even then we are only talking about a 23% real increase over 32 years.

[q12]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

One of my garlic plants just sprouted today. On March 5th, in Kingston.

This is VERY weird. Normally the first shoots don't emerge for another month.

9 of the the 10 warmest winters on record in Toronto have occurred between 1997 and now.

[Build.It]

In fairness that is largely due to the urban heat island effect suppressing overnight lows during the winter - this is a well-known phenomenon across the GTA. The land around Pearson was mostly farms up until the 70s but is now fully developed with next to no wilderness or even any trees for that matter. Here is an aerial photograph from 1970 for example:
https://www.toronto.ca/ext/archives/...970_it0164.jpg

It would be more accurate to use a weather station that has remained rural the entire time.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

^^ That's some A+ fear-mongering after one warm week during an El-Nino year (after the same thing happened 12 and 14 years ago).

Do you believe the climate is changing and average temps are increasing?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Again though. This is based on a past when all of this was manageable or could be ignored. We're now seeing development limits and fights for water rights in places like Phoenix. So really, how many more places like Phoenix can we build in the future?

80% of the Colorado River is used for agriculture. Desert lettuce is a policy choice, not an engineering constraint. Most countries will not abandon cities for desert lettuce (the U.S. might).

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Do you believe the climate is changing and average temps are increasing?

I already addressed this, but yes it is clearly happening. What I'm disputing is the extent to which it is happening and how much we will be impacted by it. I fall in the "not very concerned" camp.

[TorontoDrew]

Most of the Maple trees are flowering in my area in Riverside being down by the lake. A full 3-4 weeks early. And we had flowers out almost a month ago. Just got off of the phone with my dad, he sent me a pic of Porpoise Bay this morning covered in a fresh blanket of white. He's upset he can't golf today. It almost feels like Vancouver and Toronto are swapping climates somewhat with Vancouver getting hotter and dryer summers and colder winters and Toronto is getting the reverse. I just hope that this years forest fires aren't as bad as the last few years.

These guys have been up for about 3 weeks now.
source: https://www.colorblends.com

[q12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

In fairness that is largely due to the urban heat island effect

Are Heat Islands and Climate Change Related?

Heat islands describe local temperature differences, generally between urban and rural areas. In contrast, warming caused by climate change refers to rise in the Earth's surface temperature globally. Scientists account for urban heat when they are taking Earth’s temperature so that it doesn’t affect measurements of global climate.

There is a myth that urban heat is to blame for climate change. This is not the case. Both urban and rural environments around the world are warming because there are more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In fact, some of the areas of the world that have warmed the most are located in the Arctic, far from cities.

Urban areas are more vulnerable to heat, however, because the amount of warming caused by global climate change is compounded by the urban heat island effect. That means that people who live in cities are going to face higher temperatures and stronger heat waves in the future as climate warms. More than half the global population lives in urban areas today and by the year 2050, the percentage of urban dwellers worldwide is expected to reach 70%, so the problem of urban heat islands will continue to grow.

Urban heat islands may also contribute to climate change by increasing the demand for air conditioning during heat waves. When the energy for that air conditioning comes from the burning of fossil fuels, this results in emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone...imate%20warms.

But people shouldn't worry about this if they are "not very concerned" about climate change.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Build.It

We will also need to talk about adaptation, which isn't even a political talking point right now, but is what will ultimately be necessary.

Canada is far more likely to implement a successful adaptation plan than a climate change plan. Why isn't anyone talking about coastal dams, or wider sewer pipes which we would still need, even if we hit net zero tomorrow.

Kinda hard to talk about adaptation when the oxygen in the room is taken up by people who keep minimizing or denying negative impacts. To begin work on adaptation, we first have to have a consensus that we need to adapt.

Originally Posted by acottawa

80% of the Colorado River is used for agriculture. Desert lettuce is a policy choice, not an engineering constraint. Most countries will not abandon cities for desert lettuce (the U.S. might).

When you're choosing between food, employment and housing, you're not winning the battle. The economy of their state and the city itself is substantially based on water intensive activity. And that's not likely to be sustainable in the future.

As for places like the Gulf, I think you overestimate their adaptability. Growing up in the UAE, my parents spent more on water than they did petrol. Having to desalinate all their water and running AC 24/7 is extremely expensive. The more they have to do it, the harder it gets to both afford and keep all that exploited labour they rely on. Kill enough construction workers in the heat, and you might have a bit of a tougher time getting new ones. In general, the quality of life that attracted all those middle class professionals that fuel that place is highly likely to decline if trends keep up. Keep in mind that a big part of going to the Gulf for most migrants is the quality of life and economic advantage compared to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, etc. The more those countries develop, the worse the conditions in the Gulf and the lower the economic opportunity (if a larger chunk of disposable income is your electric bill), the less attractive the Gulf becomes.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by q12

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone...imate%20warms.

But people shouldn't worry about this if they are "not very concerned" about climate change.

Some of the most ardent believers I've seen in my career are my friends in the Maritime Patrol and Fighter communities of the air force who regularly fly to the Arctic. They've seen the ice change first hand over their careers.

[q12]

Here is the lack Sea Ice in the Northumberland strait taken by a satellite a few days ago:



And here are the Global Monthly Temperature anomalies from pre-industrial:



Source: https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/stat...22877242957942

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Even then we are only talking about a 23% real increase over 32 years.

At 23% it would seem to be a not insignificant increase, but it's actually more like double that. Over 30 years from 1991 to 2021 inflation was 68.5%, and the number of houses, duplexes and semi-detached homes in Canada increased by 45% (from 6.5m to 9.4m). In 1991 claims were $1.95bn so that would be $4.7bn in 2021 dollars. Actually claims were $7bn, so about 48% higher than in 1991 (adjusting for inflation and the growth in the number of houses).

Most of the growth in claims has been in the past 20 years. 2022 was much higher than 2021. My experience is that home insurance premiums have nearly doubled, (accounting for inflation), in 16 years. That reflects the higher costs insurers are paying out.

[CanSpice]

The North Atlantic sea surface temperature has hit daily record highs every day for 365 days and counting (as of yesterday). I don't think that that's a heat island effect.

Source: https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393

[Truenorth00]

It's we're being honest most people don't care about the environmental effects until it impacts them. Forest fires become more relevant when it burns your home. What's more likely to drive change are costs. It will be interesting to see the reaction to things like insurance costs and coffee becoming more expensive or chocolate becoming more of a luxury good.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by q12

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone...imate%20warms.

But people shouldn't worry about this if they are "not very concerned" about climate change.

Are you saying that you believe replacing grass and trees around a weather station with a sea of concrete and asphalt won't artificially raise the temperatures when compared to a location a few kms away in a rural location over the same timeframe?

This as an extremely well-known phenomenon:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island

Temperatures have increased over the last 50ish years, but it's important to use neutral stations where the surrounding environment stays the same if your goal is to track the effects of global warming. This one of the most basic science principles that they teach in middle school. Keep all your constants consistent, except for the variable you are testing.

And my lack of concern about climate change is because of the following:

- We have yet to see any place where humans currently live become uninhabitable
- Weather-related deaths per year are lower than ever, and this difference gets even more significant on a per capita level.
- Emissions/capita in the developed world (including Canada) have been going down since the 70s.
- Total emissions in the developed world have been going down since the 90s.
- Coastal flooding hasn't been anywhere close to the levels scientists predicted 20 years ago. Over thebpast 50 years Florida has only seen an 8" increase in average sea levels for example. This is barely anything.
- It is highly unlikely (95% or more IMO) that government intervention will have any meaningful impact - in fact in most cases it has the opposite effect. We are at the mercy of the pace of innovation and adoption of new technology - if you are worried about climate change then you should be pro-free-market-capitalism since that is the only thing that will actually help us reduce emissions. We need new tech to replace old tech.
- For a significant portion of the world, including Canada, climate change appears to be improving the climate and livability of the place.
- Highly populated hot areas in the world such as Dubai, Phoenix, Vegas, Florida, Texas, which you could say would become less hospitable due to climate change, don't appear to be very concerned about their own fortunes, and are still growing at breakneck speeds.

And finally: ultimately climate change is going to happen whether we like it or not. It's unlikely that any government intervention will do anything to slow it down. So better get used to it. Maybe buy a better air conditioner.

Also it's okay to say you enjoy longer, hotter summers, and shorter warmer winters, with less shoveling. I know I am.

So basically, climate change is happening, but it doesn't scare me. My energy would be much better spent on things I can control, such as buying a better AC, better sunblock, and better bug spray. Living in fear is pointless, counter-productive and leads to worse decisions. So my recommendation to everyone is to chill out, just see reality for what it is, and stop making hasty anxiety-driven decisions. And for the love of God, stop allowing governments to use climate change as an excuse to take away your freedoms.

[Build.It]

Also the lack of sea ice up north is going to make shipping routes shorter, which will ironically reduce GHG emissions.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Also the lack of sea ice up north is going to make shipping routes shorter, which will ironically reduce GHG emissions.

Yes. This seems to be happening slower than many predicted 30 years ago but eventually could be a boon to Canada's northern ports and another economic win for Canada. Downside we will have a lot more traffic up there which is ecologicially sensitive should there be accidents but who's to say an accident is worse there than Vancouver?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Are you saying that you believe replacing grass and trees around a weather station with a sea of concrete and asphalt won't artificially raise the temperatures when compared to a location a few kms away in a rural location over the same timeframe?

This as an extremely well-known phenomenon:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island

Temperatures have increased over the last 50ish years, but it's important to use neutral stations where the surrounding environment stays the same if your goal is to track the effects of global warming. This one of the most basic science principles that they teach in middle school. Keep all your constants consistent, except for the variable you are testing.

And my lack of concern about climate change is because of the following:

- We have yet to see any place where humans currently live become uninhabitable
- Weather-related deaths per year are lower than ever, and this difference gets even more significant on a per capita level.
- Emissions/capita in the developed world (including Canada) have been going down since the 70s.
- Total emissions in the developed world have been going down since the 90s.
- Coastal flooding hasn't been anywhere close to the levels scientists predicted 20 years ago. Over thebpast 50 years Florida has only seen an 8" increase in average sea levels for example. This is barely anything.
- It is highly unlikely (95% or more IMO) that government intervention will have any meaningful impact - in fact in most cases it has the opposite effect. We are at the mercy of the pace of innovation and adoption of new technology - if you are worried about climate change then you should be pro-free-market-capitalism since that is the only thing that will actually help us reduce emissions. We need new tech to replace old tech.
- For a significant portion of the world, including Canada, climate change appears to be improving the climate and livability of the place.
- Highly populated hot areas in the world such as Dubai, Phoenix, Vegas, Florida, Texas, which you could say would become less hospitable due to climate change, don't appear to be very concerned about their own fortunes, and are still growing at breakneck speeds.

And finally: ultimately climate change is going to happen whether we like it or not. It's unlikely that any government intervention will do anything to slow it down. So better get used to it. Maybe buy a better air conditioner.

Also it's okay to say you enjoy longer, hotter summers, and shorter warmer winters, with less shoveling. I know I am.

So basically, climate change is happening, but it doesn't scare me. My energy would be much better spent on things I can control, such as buying a better AC, better sunblock, and better bug spray. Living in fear is pointless, counter-productive and leads to worse decisions. So my recommendation to everyone is to chill out, just see reality for what it is, and stop making hasty anxiety-driven decisions. And for the love of God, stop allowing governments to use climate change as an excuse to take away your freedoms.

We share the planet with millions of other species (albeit this list that is getting shorter by the day). There is no mention of the adverse effects on the ecology to your list. But even ignoring the non-human casualties of climate change (which are legion), hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people will be affected by climate change in Asia (as the Himalayan glaciers, known as the 'third pole' melt away, the great rivers that are a product of this third ice cap, which sustain this population, will become trickles), and in Africa (with the Sahel shrinking and the Sahara growing).

Why should people have the freedom to destroy the ecology that sustains all life on this planet?

[q12]

When the planet is on fire this is the cost of a rapidly warming climate. Here is the current price of 3L bottle of Kirkland Brand Olive Oil in a Halifax Costco.



https://twitter.com/HalifaxReTales/s...15646064890297

[q12]

Originally Posted by Build.It

So basically, climate change is happening, but it doesn't scare me. My energy would be much better spent on things I can control.

Why are you posting in the Climate Change thread again?

And for the love of God, stop allowing governments to use climate change as an excuse to take away your freedoms.

Maybe you energy would be better spent in the political thread:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...56478&page=248