Demographics of Europe

[New Brisavoine]

Yearly update of the comparison between Hamburg, Lyon, Lille, Toulouse, and Bordeaux, this time based on the final figures from the 2011 French and German censuses. The population of Hamburg has been significantly revised down by the German census.

This year I've been able to add Munich, thanks to very detailed land area and population figures now available online for the communes (municipalities) and commune-free forest areas of Bavaria.

And the 2nd largest city of Germany is....

[Lear]

What about Frankfurt and Stuttgart ?
These 2 cities are supposed to have a similar size of urbanized area
compared to Munich/ Hamburg...

[Crawford]

How did Munich surpass Hamburg? Munich has around 1.3-1.4 million residents.

It's been growing in recent years, but no way did it add 300,000 residents unless it annexed a huge area.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Lear

What about Frankfurt and Stuttgart ?
These 2 cities are supposed to have a similar size of urbanized area
compared to Munich/ Hamburg...

A quick look shows that Stuttgart should have less than 1,350,000 inhabitants in 755 km². Frankfurt should also have less than 1,350,000 inhabitants in its 755 km².

In the Ruhr: Essen, Bochum, Herne, Herten, Gelsenkirchen, Gladbeck, Oberhausen, and Mülheim an der Ruhr together have 1,853,649 inhabitants in 754 km².

Cologne should have less than 1,550,000 inhabitants in its 755 km².

Düsseldorf has 1,240,000 inhabitants in its 755 km².

[Crawford]

Aha, I see what you're doing now. So you're just comparing roughly equivalent geographies.

[New Brisavoine]

A comparison of Munich and Vienna at the 2011 censuses.

I wonder what the former Austrian emperors would think about this, seeing the upstart Munich now larger and more prosperous than the old imperial capital...

[Crawford]

Wow, very interesting.

I knew Munich was rich, but had no idea it was significantly richer than Vienna, which is already one of the richest cities in Europe. Munich is really an incredibly prosperous place right now.

[Lear]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I knew Munich was rich, but had no idea it was significantly richer than Vienna, which is already one of the richest cities in Europe. Munich is really an incredibly prosperous place right now.

Basically Munich´s ascend goes back to the 1970ies when the city was host to the Olympics. For almost 3 decades, Munich was the secret capital of West-Germany.

Its quite interesting that Munich, the capital of Bavaria, is sometimes overlooked as a business center in the Anglo-World. In fact Munich is host to several of the 30 German DAX companies.

BMW, Allianz (one of the worlds largest insurance company) , Munich Re (one of the worlds largest re-insurance company), Siemens (europes largest high tech company) are centered in the city.

You have heard of Bayern Munich the football club? Well, now you know were the money comes from to form a successful global sports brand ….

[New Brisavoine]

Now that we finally have the 2011 census figures of France, Switzerland, and Germany, we can calculate the population figures for the metropolitan areas of Switzerland.

There exist no official statistical definition for the metropolitan areas of Switzerland (except for the part of the Basel and Geneva metro areas on French soil, where INSEE provides an official statistical definition). Here for the Swiss and German parts of the Swiss metro areas I have used either some widely-circulated unofficial definitions, or some official but non-statistical definitions (such as administrative definitions). See below the tables for exact territories included.

As a result, the total population of each metro area is only given as indicative. It should not be taken as absolute truth, especially when the metro areas are close to each other in population (for example, it is not possible to say that the Basel metro area is more populated than the Geneva metro area, because the area included in the Basel metro area is quite large and not based on a statistical definition except the part on French soil). What's more interesting is the population growth, in particular relative growth, which is little affected by the definition used for each metro area (for example, I've tried various definitions of the Zurich metro area, and the yearly growth rate is always remarkably the same, with a difference no bigger than 0.03%).

Relative growth rate of the Swiss metro areas between 2006 and 2011:
- Geneva metro area (Swiss & French parts): +1.80% per year
- Lausanne metro area: +1.60%
- Zurich metro area: +1.47%
- Basel metro area (Swiss & French parts; no data for the German part): +0.68%
- Bern metro area: +0.43%

For comparison, the Toulouse metro area, which is the fastest growing metro area in France outside the Geneva area, had a population growth rate of only +1.34% per year between and 2006 and 2011 (a lower growth rate than in the previous intercensal periods). In Germany, the fastest growing metro area is Munich, with a population growth rate of +1.59% per year since the 2011 census (no data for the years before the census). In Belgium, the Brussels metro area (defined as Brussels-Capital + Flemish and Walloon Brabant), which has experienced a boom in the late 2000s and early 2010s, had a population growth rate of +1.28% per year between 2006 and 2011.

Absolute population growth between 2006 and 2011:
- Zurich metro area: +19,873 people per year
- Geneva metro area (Swiss & French parts): +14,241
- Lausanne metro area: +5,876
- Basel metro area (Swiss & French parts; no data for the German part): +4,428
- Bern metro area: +1,638

Definitions:
Zurich metro area: canton of Zurich minus the districts of Winterthur and Andelfingen + the districts of Baden and Bremgarten in the canton of Aargau + the district of Höfe in the canton of Schwyz

Geneva metro area: canton of Geneva + district of Nyon in the canton of Vaud + INSEE-defined French part of the metro area

Basel metro area:
Switzerland: canton of Basel-Stadt + canton of Basel-Landschaft + districts of Rheinfelden and Laufenburg in the canton of Aargau + districts of Thierstein and Dorneck in the canton of Solothurn
France: INSEE-defined French part of the metro area
Germany: district of Lörrach + municipalities of Wehr and Bad Säckingen in the district of Waldshut

Lausanne metro area: districts of Lausanne, Ouest lausannois, Lavaux-Oron, Morges, and Gros-de-Vaud

Bern metro area: administrative district of Bern-Mittelland

Some maps at the same scale with land area and population in 2011. In those maps and area/population figures, the German part of the Basel metro area is included. It was not included in the growth figures above because the German statistical office has not yet released the intercensal (1987-2011) population figures.

[New Brisavoine]

Thanks to the statistical yearbooks of the German Reich published online, I've been able to extend the comparison of Munich/Hamburg with Lyon/Lille/Toulouse/Bordeaux all the way back to 1911.



The progress of Munich has been impressive. In 1911, Munich had only half the population of Hamburg. The city experienced no decline during WW2 thanks to the arrival of refugees (from the Sudetenland I suppose), then had very high growth during the Wirtschaftswunder (post-WW2 economic boom), and no population decline in the 1970s, so that it passed Hamburg in population in the late 1990s to become Germany's 2nd largest city.

In France, the stagnation of provincial France before the 1950s shows. Lyon in particular experienced severe stagnation and ossification until the mid-1950s under the tenure of its long-time mayor Edouard Herriot (who was mayor of Lyon from 1905 to 1957 ). Of course the curve here shows the evolution of many more communes than just the city of Lyon proper, but the central city influenced the development (or lack thereof) of the whole urban area.

In the case of Lille, the destructions of the two world wars (in particular WW1 which was catastrophic in French Flanders) added their effects to the general stagnation of provincial France.

Toulouse of course is the one exception in provincial France. Apart from a brief period after WW2, the city has boomed ever since the French government relocated the French gun powder/explosives and aviation industries there at the start of WW1, because it was the metropolitan French city furthest from Germany.

Much like Hamburg and Munich, in 1911 Toulouse had only half the population of Bordeaux (historically a city as large as Hamburg and Barcelona, but which had already stagnated in the 19th century), and it passed Bordeaux in population in the mid-1990s. The 755 km² of Toulouse saw their population multiply by almost 5 in the 100 years between 1911 and 2011, as you can see in the 2nd graph, which is something quite rare in Europe.

Bordeaux is along with Nantes the most disastrous un-success story in France. Two cities that were among the biggest cities of Europe in 1800 thanks to colonial trade with the Americas and India, then stagnated from 1800 to 1960, and have never recovered their former rank, despite their current population boom.

Note that there are no data for Munich and Hamburg between 1987 and 2011, because the German statistical office has not yet published intercensal estimates.

[Miu]

It's an interesting comparison, and Munich's rise is undeniable (in economic and cultural terms even more so than in demographic terms) but your graphs and figures only show us which urban areas are more populous within a specific, randomly defined area, regardless whether that area is reflective of their true expanse. They don't tell us much about the overall size of those cities. Hamburg is one of the least dense urban areas in Europe, that doesn't mean it's a smaller city than Munich (not yet at least). The Ruhr Area is larger than either, even if it has a smaller number of people in its 755 sqkm.

[look]

What about Marseilles?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Miu

It's an interesting comparison, and Munich's rise is undeniable (in economic and cultural terms even more so than in demographic terms) but your graphs and figures only show us which urban areas are more populous within a specific, randomly defined area, regardless whether that area is reflective of their true expanse. They don't tell us much about the overall size of those cities. Hamburg is one of the least dense urban areas in Europe, that doesn't mean it's a smaller city than Munich (not yet at least). The Ruhr Area is larger than either, even if it has a smaller number of people in its 755 sqkm.

True. The problem is that urban area is being defined by the same geographic constraints, rather than allowing for the variability with urban areas.

Using this metric one could come to questionable conclusions, like Naples or Athens being bigger than London or Berlin or something.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Crawford

True. The problem is that urban area is being defined by the same geographic constraints, rather than allowing for the variability with urban areas.

Using this metric one could come to questionable conclusions, like Naples or Athens being bigger than London or Berlin or something.

There is not much beyond the municipal borders of Hamburg shown on the map. So even if you take a larger area, I doubt Hamburg could have more inhabitants than Munich. There are still many suburbs lying beyond the blue area of Munich on the map.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by look

What about Marseilles?

Marseilles lies on the seaside, and it's surrounded by mountains, so it's impossible to make a like-for-like comparison with the other cities.

[New Brisavoine]

INSEE has published today the French birth figures for 2013. Germany is now the last European country that hasn't published its 2013 birth figures.

The number of births in France (excluding Mayotte) in 2013 was 811,510. This is slightly better than the preliminary estimate released by INSEE last January (810,000). Including Mayotte, the number of births in 2013 was approximately 818,000. Including the overseas collectivities, the number of births in the entire French Republic in 2013 was approximately 827,500.

In 2013 the number of births in France (excluding Mayotte) declined by -1.2%. In comparison, the number of births in the UK in 2013 was 778,805, which means a decline of -4.2% compared to 2012. Still waiting for Germany to complete the comparison.

Now regarding the origin of the mothers, since this is an issue many people like to ask about: in 2013, 20.1% of the births in France (excluding Mayotte) were due to mothers born in foreign countries. In comparison, 25.3% of births in the UK in 2013 were due to mothers born outside of the UK, Isle of Man, Channel Islands (26.5% in England and Wales). This is the highest percentage of births in France due to foreign-born mothers since the birth records started (the same is true in the UK and in many other European countries).

More in detail, 79.9% of the births in France (excluding Mayotte) in 2013 were due to mothers born in the French Republic, 7.6% to mothers born in the Maghreb, 4.5% to mothers born in sub-Saharan Africa (interestingly, 4.7% of births in England & Wales were due to mothers born in sub-Saharan Africa, so more than in France), 3.6% in European countries other than France, 1.0% in Turkey, 2.0% in Asian countries other than Turkey (notably China, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam), 0.1% in North America, and 1.2% in Latin America (notably Haiti, Suriname, and Brazil).

Regarding the mothers born in sub-Saharan Africa, the main countries of origins were:
- the Congos (Kinshasa and Brazzaville; French birth records cannot differentiate women from Congo-Kinshasa and Congo-Brazzaville): 6,125 births in France in 2013 were due to women themselves born in the Congos
- Senegal: 4,121
- Côte d'Ivoire: 3,841
- Cameroon: 3,282
- Mali: 3,146

So mostly Christian families there. This mirrors the census results which show that the fastest growing sub-Saharan immigrant groups in France are the Congolese (now the #1 sub-Saharan immigrant group in France), the Ivorians, and the Cameroonians. Former waves of sub-Saharan immigrants, which were mostly Muslim (Senegalese, Malians) are now growing slowly (few new arrivals).

Now some very interesting information regarding the European immigrants. INSEE publishes immigration figures only very late (for instance in July 2014 we had only finally the number of immigrants by country of birth as of Jan. 2011), so it's not yet possible to tell whether the economic crisis has brought Portuguese, Spaniards, and Italians to France, as is the case in Germany and the UK, but the birth figures published today suggest a new wave of Portuguese, Spaniards, and Italians has indeed arrived in France.

Births due to women born in Portugal had been continuously declining from a peak in the 1970s, but since 2011 they are rising again. In 2013 there were 4,593 births due to women born in Portugal, compared to 4,350 in 2010.

The same for births due to women born in Spain/Italy: continuous decline since the 1970s, then rising again since 2008. In 2013 there were 2,686 births due to women born in Spain & Italy, compared to 2,321 in 2010. In 2013 in particular, the number of births due to women born in Spain & Italy jumped by +9.4% compared to 2012.

[New Brisavoine]

Someone asked me to provide more information about the comparison between France and the UK, so here it is.

Births in 2013:

Mainland:
- metropolitan France: 781,621
- Great Britain: 754,526

Country:
- France: ca. 818,000
- UK: 778,805

Sovereignty:
- French Republic: ca. 827,500 (there was an error in my previous post, I've corrected it)
- UK + British Overseas Territories + Channel Islands + Isle of Man: ca. 786,000

[look]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Marseilles lies on the seaside, and it's surrounded by mountains, so it's impossible to make a like-for-like comparison with the other cities.

Any chance for similar comparison with other European cities?

[igoralex]

http://popdensitymap.ucoz.ru/news/59.../2014-08-29-71

[New Brisavoine]

The German statistical office has finally published the 2013 birth figures of Germany. We now have the 2013 birth figures for the 5 largest EU nations.

Births in 2013 (% change compared to 2012):
- France (excluding Mayotte): 811,510 (-1.2%) (ca. 818,000 including Mayotte)
- UK: 778,805 (-4.2%)
- Germany: 682,100 (+1.3%)
- Italy: 514,308 (-3.7%)
- Spain: 425,390 (-6.4%)

Natural change (births minus deaths) in 2013:
- France (excluding Mayotte): +239,510 (ca. +245,000 including Mayotte)
- UK: +202,347
- Spain: +36,181
- Italy: -86,436 (largest negative natural change since WW1)
- Germany: -211,731 (largest negative natural change since 1945)

A graph showing the number of births in the 5 largest EU nations since 1957: