Arizona Center Development

[exit2lef]

Sadly, by the time that Downtown has the critical mass of residents to support more shopping, I think that retail as we know it will have declined to a point where it can't be revived in places where it has either vanished or never thrived.

Scottsdale Fashion Square will continue to do well at the upper end of the market, but Biltmore Fashion Park has been a lot less busy since the Apple Store left, and most other malls are struggling. As astonishing as it may be to international visitors, the message will probably remain that Downtown is simply not the place to shop.

During my brief involvement in the conversation, I asked if the visitor wanted to go to a museum since several good ones are near Downtown. We had a language gap, but I sensed that her reply was "no thanks" and her real interest was in shopping.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Sadly, by the time that Downtown has the critical mass of residents to support more shopping, I think that retail as we know it will have declined to a point where it can't be revived in places where it has either vanished or never thrived.

Scottsdale Fashion Square will continue to do well at the upper end of the market, but Biltmore Fashion Park has been a lot less busy since the Apple Store left, and most other malls are struggling. As astonishing as it may be to international visitors, the message will probably remain that Downtown is simply not the place to shop.

During my brief involvement in the conversation, I asked if the visitor wanted to go to a museum since several good ones are near Downtown. We had a language gap, but I sensed that her reply was "no thanks" and her real interest was in shopping.

This is where specialty smaller retail and locally owned shops could be successful. Visitors will always want something tangible during their visit. Downtown could really use the kind of shops like the ones you will find in Old Town or the 5th Ave for items such as shirts, trinkets, wind-chimes or even key-chains and fridge magnets. As many visitors that come to PHX for conventions, sports games, the occasional super-bowl or what-not, I'm sure these tourists shops would do fairly well.

[xymox]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Sadly, by the time that Downtown has the critical mass of residents to support more shopping, I think that retail as we know it will have declined to a point where it can't be revived in places where it has either vanished or never thrived.

Scottsdale Fashion Square will continue to do well at the upper end of the market, but Biltmore Fashion Park has been a lot less busy since the Apple Store left, and most other malls are struggling. As astonishing as it may be to international visitors, the message will probably remain that Downtown is simply not the place to shop.

During my brief involvement in the conversation, I asked if the visitor wanted to go to a museum since several good ones are near Downtown. We had a language gap, but I sensed that her reply was "no thanks" and her real interest was in shopping.

Maybe the trend will reverse in a decade - gen Y seems to love brick & mortar stores. My kids and their friends absolutely love shopping and hanging out at the mall. Arrowhead, Chandler & Scottsdale Fashion Square are 'traditional' malls that are thriving. New 'Main Street' areas like Scottsdale Quarters are also thriving. The others that are dying will revive with some redevelopment - others - like Metrocenter - are just plain dead and need to be nuked from orbit... All part of the cycle. While I do think that a lot of the weaker retailers are being shaken out of the market - new ones that embrace online tech/distribution will take their place given time.

It's a shame about the Biltmore. If only they had built the condo towers on site like they planned a decade ago, then that area would be much different than it is now.

My experience with hosting international visitors is that they want to shop because certain items (tech especially - and some clothing) is so much cheaper if they buy it here. Phoenix has all the shopping to satisfy this - its just not downtown where its expected to be.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Sadly, by the time that Downtown has the critical mass of residents to support more shopping, I think that retail as we know it will have declined to a point where it can't be revived in places where it has either vanished or never thrived.

Scottsdale Fashion Square will continue to do well at the upper end of the market, but Biltmore Fashion Park has been a lot less busy since the Apple Store left, and most other malls are struggling. As astonishing as it may be to international visitors, the message will probably remain that Downtown is simply not the place to shop.

During my brief involvement in the conversation, I asked if the visitor wanted to go to a museum since several good ones are near Downtown. We had a language gap, but I sensed that her reply was "no thanks" and her real interest was in shopping.

Despite "ecommerce" something like 80% of transactions still occur in person at stores believe it or not.

The Demise of retail isnt nearly as bad (like most things) as you tend to hear about online or read about in the news. Just think about your own neighborhood, does there seem to be a steady declines of stores around your home? Did you notice the peak of storefronts 10 years ago that have declined at a steady clip since?

No, by and large most stores are still around or have been replaced with new forms of retail. And as Ronnie says specialty and boutique stores are there as much for the activity of shopping as they are for selling what they sell, same thing with luxury brands.

Sure Ill buy light bulbs and toilet paper from Amazon but if I'm going to spend $100 on a shirt Im going to go try it on and see what it looks like in person.

[PhxMatt]

Originally Posted by xymox

If the person was truly an international visitor - consider what most international 'city' areas are like: tons of shopping. None of that in downtown PHX. Downtown Scottsdale is probably the closest to it that we have. So I could see why she was sent there - the problem is, if this person is downtown for a convention or business trip, then downtown Scottsdale is out of the way.

I think we are years away from that sort of shopping showing up downtown - but I suppose if we keep getting more and more residential towers that actually fill with...residents, then demand will certainly emerge. Would be nice if AZ enter could contain shops like that - like it used to originally.

Which brings a question - of all the recently built residential towers (Steward/Link) - does anyone have any sense of % of occupancy?

The Stewart is at about 23% according to the person we worked with, they anticipated a year to get full occupancy, there were seven move ins last weekend alone...

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by PhxMatt

The Stewart is at about 23% according to the person we worked with, they anticipated a year to get full occupancy, there were seven move ins last weekend alone...

A little lower than I expected. I guess even though they had pre-leasing, I'd assume that potential residents want to tour the units first before signing leases.

Edit: Speaking of Stewart, I noticed they pulled all the old neon off the rotating sign and it's being worked on. Would love to see it operational and hope they still intend to get it working again.

[LocoPhoenician]

Originally Posted by xymox

If the person was truly an international visitor - consider what most international 'city' areas are like: tons of shopping. None of that in downtown PHX. Downtown Scottsdale is probably the closest to it that we have. So I could see why she was sent there - the problem is, if this person is downtown for a convention or business trip, then downtown Scottsdale is out of the way.

I think we are years away from that sort of shopping showing up downtown - but I suppose if we keep getting more and more residential towers that actually fill with...residents, then demand will certainly emerge. Would be nice if AZ enter could contain shops like that - like it used to originally.

Which brings a question - of all the recently built residential towers (Steward/Link) - does anyone have any sense of % of occupancy?

Hopefully it's not like the local with is nothing but a huge airbnb building that no one actually lives in.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by LocoPhoenician

Hopefully it's not like the local with is nothing but a huge airbnb building that no one actually lives in.

I dont understand this comment.

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I dont understand this comment.

I was confused too. Glad I wasn't the only one.

[nickw252]

Originally Posted by RonnieFoos

I was confused too. Glad I wasn't the only one.

I think what he's referring to is the apartment building The Local in Tempe. There are Airbnbs in that building.

For example: https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/3452912...er_id=81521598

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by nickw252

I think what he's referring to is the apartment building The Local in Tempe. There are Airbnbs in that building.

For example: https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/3452912...er_id=81521598

So, I guess my next question is, does that really matter? As long as people ARE there and it's bringing in dollars to the local businesses, not sure that it matters if it's full time rentals or visitor rentals. It's occupied either way.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by RonnieFoos

So, I guess my next question is, does that really matter? As long as people ARE there and it's bringing in dollars to the local businesses, not sure that it matters if it's full time rentals or visitor rentals. It's occupied either way.

Agreed, short term/medium term rentals are a market and I dont see why we should care that some units would cater to it.

[biggus diggus]

It's a boon for surrounding shops, too. Who spends money like they're on vacation? People on vacation.

[LocoPhoenician]

Originally Posted by nickw252

I think what he's referring to is the apartment building The Local in Tempe. There are Airbnbs in that building.

For example: https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/3452912...er_id=81521598

Pretty much the whole building is airbnbs nobody actually lives there

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by LocoPhoenician

Pretty much the whole building is airbnbs nobody actually lives there

I doubt that is true. And even if it was its essentially a hotel...whats the problem?

[LocoPhoenician]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I doubt that is true. And even if it was its essentially a hotel...whats the problem?

Taking away rental stock which is a catalyst to rising rents. They also undercut hotel taxes with takes funds from things as building stadiums.

[biggus diggus]

If the city ever cracked down like they did in Chicago it would turn all those rentals into vacant apartments and we would see what the real demand for luxury apartments is.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by LocoPhoenician

Taking away rental stock which is a catalyst to rising rents. They also undercut hotel taxes with takes funds from things as building stadiums.

That is not a major reason for rental prices increases.

[nickw252]

Originally Posted by LocoPhoenician

Taking away rental stock which is a catalyst to rising rents. They also undercut hotel taxes with takes funds from things as building stadiums.

I don't think that's correct. I'm an Airbnb Superhost - it's my understanding that taxes are collected at every level. There's a huge delta between what guests pay and what I get.

[downtownphxguy12]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

It's a boon for surrounding shops, too. Who spends money like they're on vacation? People on vacation.