Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Thinking about the presumed 2024 general election, new boundaries will have to be in place. I assume the 2021 census will shift one seat from the upper river valley/eastern Acadia towards Moncton, and Fredericton's ring of suburban/rural seats will probably need to shrink quite a bit inwards.

On a micro level, Portland-Simonds will probably have to shed population to Saint John East, but Harbour and Lancaster won't change too much.

I've done some thinking on this recently and I agree with your overall assessment. It depends on how the electoral redistribution commission proceeds with shifting things around but assuming that they have the same criteria for electoral populations...

Under the assumption that the number of electorals has increased slightly in the past decade (which is a safe assumption given the additional population we've added):

• Fredericton South becomes an even smaller riding, likely, shedding areas southeast of Route 8 and potentially picking up a little bit of riding from Fredericton West-Hanwell to the intersection of Hanwell & Prospect
• Fredericton North may also shrink in geographic size
• I think the River Valley ridings continue shifting down south a bit, tightening further to Fredericton and widening nearer to Edmundston.
• I'm not sure what the procedure will be for the North...it's possible Campbellton gets merged into Restigouche West with Dalhousie moved into Restigouche-Chaleur.
• It's possible that this is the riding loss, otherwise it will occur on the Acadien Peninsula, potentially splitting Caraquet between Bathurst East and Shippagan, or splitting Bathurst East between Bathurst West, Caraquet, and Tracadie.
• Something will also have to be done with Fredericton-Grand Lake and Southwest Miramichi-Bay-du-Vin. It wouldn't shock me if F-GL and F-York absorb the western parts of M-BDV with the rest of the riding merging into Kent-North and Miramichi. This will lead into the Kent ridings shifting further south.
• It wouldn't surprise me if Shediac became its own riding for 2024. There's been enough growth in this area to warrant it. If this happens it's possible that Shediac Bay-Dieppe merges with the remainder of Beaubassin-Est to form a sort of crescent-shaped riding around the new Shediac riding.
• Moncton is likely where the new riding emerges and there's a number of different scenarios for this...one would be a new Dieppe/Moncton East riding, one would be combining Moncton SW and NW with the urban remainder becoming a new central riding. I assume both Moncton South and Centre tighten further to reflect pop. growth.
• Albert becomes more weighted towards Riverview and probably sheds Salisbury. If a new central Moncton riding is added it's possible Moncton SW absorbs Salisbury and Eastern section of Gagetown-Petitcodiac for a new suburban Moncton West riding (Salisbury-Petitcodiac-Berry Mills area).
• Saint John ridings likely stay the same. Harbour's low turnout probably keeps it from tightening.
• I think at some point Saint Croix absorbs all of the Fundy Islands to become an actual fully SW NB riding.
  

I haven't looked at the electoral counts in a while but I know there was a lot of variance initiated a decade ago to attempt to predict future pop. growth (which were pretty accurate, IIRC). I guess it would be easier if I grabbed a map and simply drew out some of these

[adamuptownsj]

Interesting comments!


Fredericton South becomes an even smaller riding, likely, shedding areas southeast of Route 8 and potentially picking up a little bit of riding from Fredericton West-Hanwell to the intersection of Hanwell & Prospect It needs to, unless they split it in two.

Fredericton North may also shrink in geographic size also likely, but again they could chop it and create two seats E-W to maintain some rural influence.

I think the River Valley ridings continue shifting down south a bit, tightening further to Fredericton and widening nearer to Edmundston. definitely. Carlton is creeping towards one riding. You should probably have from N-S Edmundson urban, panhandle to north of GF, Victoria-Carlton, Carlton-York

I'm not sure what the procedure will be for the North...it's possible Campbellton gets merged into Restigouche West with Dalhousie moved into Restigouche-Chaleur.
It's possible that this is the riding loss, otherwise it will occur on the Acadien Peninsula, potentially splitting Caraquet between Bathurst East and Shippagan, or splitting Bathurst East between Bathurst West, Caraquet, and Tracadie. what I could see happening is, Bathurst gets consolidated to one riding more or less. MB-N can be carved up to bulk out the peninsular seats and the other Miramichi seats at the same time. Cambellton should run west past Tide Head along the Matapedia instead of east to Dalhousie.

Something will also have to be done with Fredericton-Grand Lake and Southwest Miramichi-Bay-du-Vin. It wouldn't shock me if F-GL and F-York absorb the western parts of M-BDV with the rest of the riding merging into Kent-North and Miramichi. This will lead into the Kent ridings shifting further south. Is Kent growing enough for much movement? Its ridings are pretty stable. Reducing Miramichi to a single town riding and a single rural Anglo-ish riding could do a lot to clean up the Acadian seats while making some of Fredericton's fringes unnecessary

It wouldn't surprise me if Shediac became its own riding for 2024. There's been enough growth in this area to warrant it. If this happens it's possible that Shediac Bay-Dieppe merges with the remainder of Beaubassin-Est to form a sort of crescent-shaped riding around the new Shediac riding. Not too familiar with the area, but that makes more sense than the Dieppe-to-Shediac seat now.

Moncton is likely where the new riding emerges and there's a number of different scenarios for this...one would be a new Dieppe/Moncton East riding, one would be combining Moncton SW and NW with the urban remainder becoming a new central riding. I assume both Moncton South and Centre tighten further to reflect pop. growth.
Albert becomes more weighted towards Riverview and probably sheds Salisbury. If a new central Moncton riding is added it's possible Moncton SW absorbs Salisbury and Eastern section of Gagetown-Petitcodiac for a new suburban Moncton West riding (Salisbury-Petitcodiac-Berry Mills area).It could very well be the 'crescent' around Shediac may need to pick up voters on the fringes here, if M-T also needs some voters. I think
-you're right on Albert/Riverview. Unless you cross Moncton seats into it, you might even need to lose population to G-P.
-Moncton will probably have a new seat inserted and none 'removed' if that makes sense. Converge Dieppe, M SoutM Centre towards the north/east/southeast respectively, shift Moncton Southwest to the north or to Petitcodiac, and use the leftovers gained plus new subdivisions to create a new Moncton Crescent, more or less, with NW and NE rejiggering around it.
-Dieppe can lose its southern end to M-T.


Saint John ridings likely stay the same. Harbour's low turnout probably keeps it from tightening. A lot of the movement into Harbour is boomers and younger childless people- the number of electors has probably increased despite the population probably staying steady. Milledgeville is booming, but immigrants and children are not electors. Generally the SJ ridings are OK but South Bay and Red Head are both orphaned.
I think at some point Saint Croix absorbs all of the Fundy Islands to become an actual fully SW NB riding. My reasoning is they won't until the Blacks Harbour ferry terminal is in the riding.

[MonctonRad]

CURRENT 338Canada.com Predictions (September 3rd) - previous prediction from last week in brackets.

Popular Vote:

- PC - 39.0% (39.5%)
- LIB - 33.5% (32.8%)
- GRN - 17.5% (14.9%)
- PA - 7.1% (7.2%)
- NDP - 3.0% (5.5%)

Seat Projection:

- PC - 27 seats (28)
- LIB - 17 seats (17)
- GRN - 4 seats (3)
- PA - 1 seat (1)
- NDP - 0 seats (0)

notes:

- 25 seats needed for a majority. PC support has weakened slightly. Their goal of a majority government is at some risk.
- LIB have picked up some support, but maybe in the wrong ridings. No change in expected seat count.
- GRN is performing well and may be the spoiler for the PCs. Seat count up by one.
- PA not a factor
- NDP is imploding and is now politically irrelevant. The GRN is the new NDP.

[lirette]

It's too bad because the NDP leader had a great performance last night. Not easy to be a 23 year old up on the stage. It's abit saddening to see the entire debate including moderators all white men.

I don't think a PC majority government will be working well for all new Brunswickers but looks like that's where we are headed.

I hope in my lifetime I get to see serious electoral reform both federally & provincially.

[Marty_Mcfly]

If you want to check out another model, Lean Tossup has one for each province as well. I don't like their model as much as 338, plus their group are hyper-partisan and a bit brash and arrogant about it. As it stands right now though, their model is pretty in line with 338.

Popular Vote:

PC - 38%
LIB - 32%
GRN - 19%
PA - 7%
NDP - 4%

Seat Projection:

PC - 25 seats
LIB - 18 seats
GRN - 4 seats
PA - 2 seat
NDP - 0 seats

https://leantossup.ca/nb/

Differences:

- Miramichi is projected "leaning" a Liberal pickup by 338 by about 7%, projected by LTU a "tossup" PA hold by 0.2%
- Fredricton North is projected by 338 as a "toss up" PC pickup by 3.9%, projected by LTU a "safe" Green pickup by almost 12%
- Moncton East is projected by 338 as a "leaning" PC pickup by almost 7%, projected by LTU as "leaning" Liberal hold by 1%
- Moncton South is projected by 338 as a "tossup" PC pickup by 1%, projected by LTU as "likely" Liberal hold by 6%
- Victoria La Vallee is projected by 338 to be a "tossup" Liberal hold by 0.5%, projected by LTU to be a "likely" PC pickup by about 5%.


For what its worth, LTU did a good job projecting a final seat count for the 2019 NL election, but their district vote share projections were god awful. Not sure if their models have enough data or not. As an example from the district where I grew up:

Burin - Grand Bank LTU projection:
Liberal: 81.7%
PC: 18.3%
Safe Liberal hold

Election result:
Liberal: 51.6%
PC: 48.4%

They'll likely come close to their final seat projections, but there going to be very wrong about a bunch of districts but it evens out.

[Taeolas]

I'm in Freddy North, which is apparently a big battle ground. It's a 4 way race that also has the NDP leader running here.

Judging by the lawn signs, Green seems to be dominating here, with Liberals in second. Tories have some big signs but almost no small ones. Alliance has a couple small ones, and NDP's basically "We're here."; they don't even have a large sign anywhere at the usual spots.

I was thinking of voting tomorrow, but I'm not sure which way I'm leaning with how close things are; I'm a toss up between Red and Green basically; but I'm also ABC because I don't want to "reward" Higgs for calling in this situation. So I'll probably hold until next weekend to see how the polls are looking then.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

- NDP is imploding and is now politically irrelevant. The GRN is the new NDP.

They absolutely are not in any conceivable way whatsoever.

Originally Posted by Taeolas

and NDP's basically "We're here."; they don't even have a large sign anywhere at the usual spots.

The NDP were rumoured to have entered this election with effectively no money, which means nothing to really purchase signs with. Ridings may have some in reserve but those would be few and far between.

Originally Posted by Lirette

It's too bad because the NDP leader had a great performance last night. Not easy to be a 23 year old up on the stage. It's abit saddening to see the entire debate including moderators all white men.

Not only all of the leaders but the moderators and all of the questions being asked, as well. No women or POC in sight.

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Is Kent growing enough for much movement?

Kent South area is (Cocagne/Saint-Antoine). Suburban Moncton is creeping in all directions and this area is no exception.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

They absolutely are not in any conceivable way whatsoever.

In terms of political philosophy, the GRN is no NDP, I agree.

The GRN tends to be a "big tent" party, both socially progressive and (small) business friendly, with a primary focus on the environment. The NDP is pure socialist.

But in terms of being a party to park your protest vote, the GRN is the new NDP. Because of this, the NDP has lost everything except for the hard core socialist vote, which is pretty minuscule in NB.............

[L'homard]

Don't be fooled by signs posted on public land.
The real trick is how many signs are posted on private property.
Any idiot can, and will, post signs on road sides. But having people invite you to post your signs on their lawns, now that's where it's at.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by L'homard

Don't be fooled by signs posted on public land.
The real trick is how many signs are posted on private property.
Any idiot can, and will, post signs on road sides. But having people invite you to post your signs on their lawns, now that's where it's at.

Yup, that's the main thing I try to keep an eye on. And around Freddy Northside, Green party signs seem to dominate on private property for the most part.

PC party signs may have a very slight edge on Liberal signs, but it's a bit hard to tell for certain. And Alliance and NDP are virtually non existent.

So based on private signs, we seem to be sending the Green party to the legislature.

[JHikka]

My personal riding guesses:
Restigouche West - GRN
Campbellton-Dalhousie - LIB
Restigouche-Chaleur - LIB
Bathurst West-Beresford - LIB
Bathurst East-Nepisi - LIB
Caraquet - LIB
Shippagan-Lameque - LIB
Tracadie-Sheila - LIB

Miramichi Bay-Neguac - LIB
Miramichi - LIB
Southwest Miramichi-BDV - PC

Kent North - GRN
Kent South - LIB
Shediac Bay-Dieppe - LIB
Shediac-Beaubassin - LIB
Memramcook-Tantramar - GRN
Dieppe - LIB
Moncton East - LIB
Moncton Centre - LIB
Moncton South - PC
Moncton Northwest - PC
Moncton Southwest - PC
Riverview - PC
Albert - PC
Gagetown-Petitcodiac - PC

Sussex-Fundy - PC
Hampton - PC
Quispamsis - PC
Rothesay - PC
Saint John East - PC
Portland-Simonds - PC
Saint John Harbour - PC
Saint John Lancaster - PC
Kings Centre - PC
Fundy-The Isles - PC
Saint Croix - PC

Oromocto-Lincoln - PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake - PANB
New Maryland-Sunbury - PC
Fredericton South - GRN
Fredericton North - GRN
Fredericton-York - PC
Fredericton West - PC
Carleton-York - PC

Carleton - PC
Carleton-Victoria - PC
Victoria-La Vallee - LIB
Edmundston-Madawaska - LIB
Madawaska-Les Lacs - LIB

PC - 25
LIB - 18
GRN - 5
PANB - 1

• In this scenario Moncton South and Centre are two battleground ridings that could determine whether or not we have a majority PC government. Other ridings that can tip this are Fredericton North, Carleton-Victoria, and Saint John Harbour.
• In 2018, Moncton Centre's vote was split by IND Chris Collins, so it'll be interesting to see where that 19% of vote goes in 2020. Mostly depends on if the non-LIB vote coalesces around either the PCs or the GRNs. My prediction is based on the PCs and GRNs splitting enough to ensure another LIB victory in the riding. It's possible that the LIBs could shed 7-8% of their vote and still win with 33% or so. Similar to how Fredericton North was won with 31% in 2018 with a four party votesplit.
• I'm also interested to see how Chan does in Moncton Centre. Has there ever been a POC in the legislature? I can't recall one.
• I'm leaning GRN in Restigouche-West just based on how well Theriault did last time out. I think there's potential there for a GRN pickup. Similarly, Freddy North seems ready for something different.
• Another riding to keep an eye on would be Miramichi Bay-Neguac, where a former MLA (Trevors) is running against the current incumbent (Harris). If the PCs win this they're very likely into majority territory and the LIBs would be left in a very bad spot. The PCs winning this would also mean that there would have to be a very big PANB vote collapse and reversion to PCs.
• Likewise, in Kent North, former MLA Bertrand LeBlanc is back to go against current MLA Arseneau.
• I don't see any scenario where the LIBs pick up seats or form government in any meaningful way. Not only would they need to hold all of their current ridings but also pick up 2-3 ridings along the way. They would need to win Kent North & Memramcook-Tantramar from the Greens, as well as hold Harbour, Moncton South & Centre, and Carleton-Victoria to have even a slim chance at a majority.
• In a prospective LIB minority scenario they would have to win Saint Croix, Carleton-Victoria, Saint John Harbour, Moncton Centre, Moncton South either from the PCs or preventing them from winning those ridings.
• I'd actually watch Vickers' riding in Miramichi to see how that plays out. He may only win thanks to a PC/PANB votesplit on the right. I don't think this is going to be a great election for either Vickers or the LIBs, and if they fail to win government once more they'll need to take a pretty long look inwards to see what they can do to alleviate issues with the voting public. Reverting back to a younger, more dynamic leader would be the first step, i'd imagine.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Victoria-La Vallee PC candidate has been given the boot it would appear. While I'm not super familiar with NB politics I feel like that riding was likely out of reach for the PCs anyway unless they were in store for a really good night. Should the former PC candidate win the district they will sit as an independent.

[ColSJ]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Victoria-La Vallee PC candidate has been given the boot it would appear. While I'm not super familiar with NB politics I feel like that riding was likely out of reach for the PCs anyway unless they were in store for a really good night. Should the former PC candidate win the district they will sit as an independent.

Polls showed the liberals with a tight .4% margin over the PCs in this riding. This could put Higg’s chance of a majority in jeopardy.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by ColSJ

Polls showed the liberals with a tight .4% margin over the PCs in this riding. This could put Higg’s chance of a majority in jeopardy.

Who's been doing riding-level polling for the election?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Who's been doing riding-level polling for the election?

Nobody. People are confusing 338 and leantossup as official polls which they definitely are not.

[lirette]

When asked by a reporter about what Higgs would do to support the trans community he claimed that removing Michaud thats all he needed to do.

Is it really so difficult for conservative politicians to advance their support for such a vulnerable community? Where will their voters honestly go?

This man should not get a majority government. I have no doubt there is more of this type of thinking within the party. How deep I am not sure. If they really want to be "progressive" conservatives I would expect more than the bare minimum.

[lirette]

Liberals have now announced their candidate in Saint Croix John Gardner is out due to a homophobic facebook status surfacing from 2017 and 2018 including one in support of a "straight pride" flag. Some serious vetting issues from both the liberals & PC party in this election.

There is still a man who made previous transphobic comments who is running as a PC Restigouche West (Louis Berube). Will be interesting if anything happens.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Nobody. People are confusing 338 and leantossup as official polls which they definitely are not.

That's what I thought. National polling agencies really don't want to do polling for small province elections, and they reeeealllly don't want to do district level polling for such small populations.

Friendly reminder than aggregates like 338 and Lean Tossup are not polling agencies. They take the information provided from pollsters, compare it to past election results, look at things like star candidacies, and make projections based on the data.

[lirette]

PA's have dropped Heather Collins from Memramcook due to past islamophobic comments.

[MonctonRad]

I would be interested to hear what people think about the value of having star candidates have on the course of an election, at least at the local riding level.

For example, in Moncton, the PCs have two star candidates running - Greg Turner and Daniel Allain. Personally, I think Greg Turner is popular enough that this will push him over the top in terms of his election bid. Daniel Allain though is much less certain. His riding is traditionally Liberal (and largely francophone). Although he is francophone himself, I think the animus most francophones have for Blain Higgs will make this a difficult win for the Tories.

Thoughts?????