The US Census Bureau thread

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

perhaps the black flight "exodus" from cities like detroit and chicago was overstated?

perhaps many of them were simply missed by the census count?

The general trend would still be correct.

Every single modern U.S. census has probably undercounted the general population by 2-3%. Covid might have added an additional 1-2% error.

[Steely Dan]

^ oh right, I wasn't trying to say that it might mean that chicago didn't experience any black flight at all due to an undercount of black americans, just that maybe the real number was only -75K instead of the reported -85K.

likely not a big difference overall, but in stagnant-ass regions like ours, every +1 means a lot.

[The North One]

A fuck up in every way possible. Great job census.

[mhays]

Actually I think they were pretty heroic given the situation. They guarded the integrity of the process when it was under attack.

[Steely Dan]

^ right. they did the best they could, considering.

there's certainly no such thing as a "perfect" census.

and boy were they fighting some serious headwinds back in spring of 2020.


but i can also see where TNO is coming from a little bit too. not so much that it was a fuck-up in every way possible, that's obviously going overboard, but as the blackest major city in the nation at around 78% black, detroit would have been especially susceptible to a severe undercount of black americans, much more so than most other cities anyway, and we also all know that detroit could use some positive population news more than just about any other major US city these days.

that said, does the CB ever go back and correct these things? i mean, i know cities sometimes challenge census results, but how often does that actually result in a new revised population figure getting officially logged?

[craigs]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

Makes sense. The LA area numbers seemed low to me and if you're undercountimg Latinos, well....

Yeah, I have long suspected a significant disconnect between the census numbers and the facts on the ground, especially in cities like Los Angeles.

First, COVID severely impacted the 2020 Census. It reduced time to do the survey overall, and especially wiped out time that is usually reserved toward the end of the count for identifying traditionally hard-to-count populations (new and illegal immigrants, the indigent, homeless, and people with high language barriers). Also, COVID reduced the census workforce through attrition, based on months-long furloughs and the fact that the pandemic made the door-to-door and group quarters counts more stressful and risky. Also, a lot of people suddenly starting moving around because of COVID, both temporarily and permanently, at the very time the count was to be taken.

Second, the Trump regime hobbled the process and participation in it. Trump repeatedly attempted to include language that would identify illegal immigrants by name and address. Even though that language was ultimately ruled out by the courts, the sentiment almost certainly suppressed said immigrants' and their family members' participation (which was the whole point). Trump also curtailed the process--already delayed by months at the front end--by at least a month. Nobody to see here, folks!

I could be wrong, but I suspect the 2020 Census could the be least accurate in ages because of these factors, especially in cities like LA that have lots of immigrants, people with language barriers, poor and homeless people, etc.

[C.]

I'm too lazy to do the math correctly, but with the Census Bureau acknowledging there was a statistically significant undercount of certain persons, what would be the likely population of cities, counties, states.

I have New York City at 9,314,833 if the undercount was 18.8 million, but I think to get a more accurate estimate would be to look at race data and apply the undercount/overcounts for each race that the Census identified as statistically significant.

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by C.

I'm too lazy to do the math correctly, but with the Census Bureau acknowledging there was a statistically significant undercount of certain persons, what would be the likely population of cities, counties, states.

I have New York City at 9,314,833 if the undercount was 18.8 million, but I think to get a more accurate estimate would be to look at race data and apply the undercount/overcounts for each race that the Census identified as statistically significant.

Please explain how you get your NYC number? Just curious....thanks in advance!

[C.]

Originally Posted by fleonzo

Please explain how you get your NYC number? Just curious....thanks in advance!

U.S. Census Bureau estimates the undercount at 18.8 million, which represents 5% of the 2020 Census population. So just multiple the official NYC tally by 5 percent. However, this is crude and flawed methodology. More appropriate to look at the breakdowns for each group of people provided in the Census release.

[mhays]

Woah, no they don't!

[ChiSoxRox]

County numbers for the 2021 estimates drop tomorrow morning.



Looks like they're going to be rough.

Edit: King County, WA and Harris County, Texas being negative are already raising an eyebrow.

[Yuri]

The US population has barely grown in the years of 2020 and 2021. 2022, so far, is not looking promising as Covid deaths are still very high. Natural growth has been very close to zero and immigration slowed considerably during the pandemic from an already low level since the last years of Obama.

Immigration must rebound big in 2023, to 2000's levels, otherwise the US will see virtually no growth this decade.

[creamcityleo79]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

County numbers for the 2021 estimates drop tomorrow morning.



Looks like they're going to be rough.

Edit: King County, WA and Harris County, Texas being negative are already raising an eyebrow.

I saw an article about Hennepin and Ramsey Counties in MN (home to Minneapolis and St Paul, respectively) and state demographers here are showing similar population losses. But, looking at the country as a whole, this may be a shift to more people working from home and buying houses outside of the traditional core counties of metro areas. Look at all that growth in Northern Wisconsin. That's cabin country...same with Northern Minnesota. Anecdotally, a lot of people are moving up there because they can now. I would suspect this is the case with other metros, too (among other demographic trends...lower immigration during COVID, lower birth rates, Boomer retirements and migration patterns, colleges not having in-person classes, etc).

Edit to add the article:

https://www.startribune.com/populati...021/600158882/

[Cashville]

Davidson Co (Nashville) the fastest declining county in TN, not sure I completely buy it but a lot of locals are cashing out and moving to the burbs.

Not surprising is the definitive line separating the mid green of Middle TN to the stagnant/declining counties of West TN, it follows the exact line of the Grand Divisions, unfortunately I don't see that side of the state catching up with the rest anytime soon.

[benp]

These are the first estimates that had to take into account the excess death rate from COVID and other things, along with the decreased birth rate and decreased rate of foreign immigration. That certainly had a bearing in many counties.

[SAN Man]

The 2020 census is out of date. The census numbers reflect the total number of people living somewhere at the latest date of April 1st, 2020, if I'm not mistaken? We all know what was going on in March 2020 and the reshuffling of the deck with WFH culture that resulted from it.

Look at the inter mountain West, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Nevada and Arizona!
Also look at northern New England, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine!
Looks like Indy and Columbus are growth spots in their states' overall declining nature of the surrounding rural areas.

[dave8721]

It has South Florida losing population which would may be possible with no incoming immigration. It looks like basically every urban county lost population. Work from home effect?

[Steely Dan]

Quickly now, everyone move to Idaho!

[C.]

Did Hudson County, NJ and Manhattan lose people? Looks like it. Not unexpected with WFH policies and likely only temporary if accurate.

[galleyfox]

We’ll have to wait until 2022 to guess at the deeper trends. Labor Force data shows a deep employment trough that recovered in many places after July 2021.


https://www.census.gov/library/stori...-and-2021.html