CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[SIGSEGV]

Looks like being home Chicago should be called soon. The attorney race may be close enough that mail in ballots may need to be awaited.

[lakeshoredrive]

How’s it looking for Burke?

[twister244]

Originally Posted by lakeshoredrive

How’s it looking for Burke?

From what I can see Burke is ahead by 8,808 votes with mail-ins still left to count....

It's close, and too close to call yet.

[left of center]

Ooof, keeping my fingers crossed for Burke.

[marothisu]

I've been doing some analysis on this election so far vs Burke/Harris. There are 18 of 50 wards in town that are at minimum 5 percentage points better each for Burke than it was for Vallas. Those 18 combined went 59.6% for Johnson but this time around they're going 51.49% for Harris.

That's over 8 percentage points increase in favor of the more moderate candidate over the progressive in many of the same wards that helped push Johnson over the edge nearly a year ago.

If those 18 wards voted about the same percentage wise for Harris as they did for Johnson, we'd only be talking about a 200 vote lead for Burke instead of nearly 9000. It would be looking a lot worse for her. Harris has to essentially get something like 3-4 percentage points increase in mail in ballots in the city better than what he is doing currently to have a shot at winning if Burke doesn't do too much worse for the mail ins outstanding in the suburbs. I think last year Johnson did 1.5 points better for mail in ballots.

I'm still optimistic about Burke but it could very easily end up being Harris. But again, I'm optimistic for Burke.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I've been doing some analysis on this election so far vs Burke/Harris. There are 18 of 50 wards in town that are at minimum 5 percentage points better each for Burke than it was for Vallas. Those 18 combined went 59.6% for Johnson but this time around they're going 51.49% for Harris.

That's over 8 percentage points increase in favor of the more moderate candidate over the progressive in many of the same wards that helped push Johnson over the edge nearly a year ago.

If those 18 wards voted about the same percentage wise for Harris as they did for Johnson, we'd only be talking about a 200 vote lead for Burke instead of nearly 9000. It would be looking a lot worse for her. Harris has to essentially get something like 3-4 percentage points increase in mail in ballots in the city better than what he is doing currently to have a shot at winning if Burke doesn't do too much worse for the mail ins outstanding in the suburbs. I think last year Johnson did 1.5 points better for mail in ballots.

I'm still optimistic about Burke but it could very easily end up being Harris. But again, I'm optimistic for Burke.

Possible the voter demographics skewed differently in a low turnout primary

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by VKChaz

Possible the voter demographics skewed differently in a low turnout primary

Logically that does not make any sense. Truly progressive voters know that Chicago is not there yet so it's in their best interest to actually show up and vote. Especially how Johnson has been doing and the amount of criticism - these people and measures have the ability to change the city in some fundamental ways (for better or for worse). It wouldn't make sense for them to not vote. If that's what happens then they're truly even more idiotic than I could have ever imagined.

If you remember from a year ago, it was really some of the north and northwest side wards that turned out for Johnson and ultimately pushed him over the edge. When you look at the actual wards by percentage right now vs what Johnson got, you will see what I'm talking about. The 49th ward where Maria Hadden is, had Harris getting 11.27 percentage points LOWER than what Johnson got just 1 year ago. Hadden is the main sponsor of Bring Chicago Home bill that just failed.

This is a ward that went 73.6% for Johnson a year ago and now barely went just over 62% for Harris. In 2020, Kim Foxx did slightly better than Harris, but that was with 2 more candidates in the primary than this year. And in 2016, Foxx got 70% with 1 more candidate than this year.

There are others like this in wards that helped push Johnson over the edge and they had Harris underperforming vs. what Johnson did. I see some of this as a sort of buyer's remorse potentially about Johnson with some voters in the north side.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Logically that does not make any sense. Truly progressive voters know that Chicago is not there yet so it's in their best interest to actually show up and vote. Especially how Johnson has been doing and the amount of criticism - these people and measures have the ability to change the city in some fundamental ways (for better or for worse). It wouldn't make sense for them to not vote. If that's what happens then they're truly even more idiotic than I could have ever imagined.

If you remember from a year ago, it was really some of the north and northwest side wards that turned out for Johnson and ultimately pushed him over the edge. When you look at the actual wards by percentage right now vs what Johnson got, you will see what I'm talking about. The 49th ward where Maria Hadden is, had Harris getting 11.27 percentage points LOWER than what Johnson got just 1 year ago. Hadden is the main sponsor of Bring Chicago Home bill that just failed.

This is a ward that went 73.6% for Johnson a year ago and now barely went just over 62% for Harris. In 2020, Kim Foxx did slightly better than Harris, but that was with 2 more candidates in the primary than this year. And in 2016, Foxx got 70% with 1 more candidate than this year.

There are others like this in wards that helped push Johnson over the edge and they had Harris underperforming vs. what Johnson did. I see some of this as a sort of buyer's remorse potentially about Johnson with some voters in the north side.

I think Johnson, like Lightgoot, had support that was reasonably broad but very shallow. Like Lightfoot, he doesn't have a natural base. Rahm had a base. Daley had a base. Johnson's voters are black residents and white folks who are looking for a career as a trauma-informed supportive counselor but are happy doing a few tarot readings until that takes off. But those voters went Johnson because the alternative was truly unpalatable. I voted for Vallas pretty reluctantly and a lot of Chicagoans voted for Johnson pretty reluctantly. I'd have been a lot happier if Buckner or Lightfoot was around in the final round.

In '26, Johnson would be easy to beat if there's a good alternative. I wonder if Burnett would run? It probably needs to be someone with credibility and name recognition. And it needs to be someone who can split the African-American vote with Johnson.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Logically that does not make any sense. Truly progressive voters know that Chicago is not there yet so it's in their best interest to actually show up and vote. Especially how Johnson has been doing and the amount of criticism - these people and measures have the ability to change the city in some fundamental ways (for better or for worse). It wouldn't make sense for them to not vote. If that's what happens then they're truly even more idiotic than I could have ever imagined.

If you remember from a year ago, it was really some of the north and northwest side wards that turned out for Johnson and ultimately pushed him over the edge. When you look at the actual wards by percentage right now vs what Johnson got, you will see what I'm talking about. The 49th ward where Maria Hadden is, had Harris getting 11.27 percentage points LOWER than what Johnson got just 1 year ago. Hadden is the main sponsor of Bring Chicago Home bill that just failed.

This is a ward that went 73.6% for Johnson a year ago and now barely went just over 62% for Harris. In 2020, Kim Foxx did slightly better than Harris, but that was with 2 more candidates in the primary than this year. And in 2016, Foxx got 70% with 1 more candidate than this year.

There are others like this in wards that helped push Johnson over the edge and they had Harris underperforming vs. what Johnson did. I see some of this as a sort of buyer's remorse potentially about Johnson with some voters in the north side.

I have not seen any analysis of the voters in this primary. But across the nation generally, younger voters can be difficult to turn out. And this is especially true in low turnout elections. So if younger voters were more likely to align with progressive candidates and less likey to turn out, then that could affect an outcome. This was the primary point I was getting at. But to know if there might have been such an influence requires at the very least comparing demographics between the cycles

[Chisouthside]

A small batch went in a couple hours ago and Burke's lead increased by 11 votes.

[lakeshoredrive]

Yikes, the chief of staff is stepping down.

[CrazyCres]

The Associated Press called it, Bring Chicago Home officially fails

[lakeshoredrive]

Hope they call the race for Burke today

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by lakeshoredrive

Hope they call the race for Burke today

I think they will call it today if they had another city batch come in similar to yesterday and suburbs have a big one, and the percentages are similar to yesterday for those batches. I think Harris needs 70% plus at this rate to even have a chance. It's not impossible but he's been underperforming in a number of wards vs what Johnson did a year ago from a progressive voter standpoint.

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

I think Johnson, like Lightgoot, had support that was reasonably broad but very shallow. Like Lightfoot, he doesn't have a natural base. Rahm had a base. Daley had a base. Johnson's voters are black residents and white folks who are looking for a career as a trauma-informed supportive counselor but are happy doing a few tarot readings until that takes off. But those voters went Johnson because the alternative was truly unpalatable. I voted for Vallas pretty reluctantly and a lot of Chicagoans voted for Johnson pretty reluctantly. I'd have been a lot happier if Buckner or Lightfoot was around in the final round.

In '26, Johnson would be easy to beat if there's a good alternative. I wonder if Burnett would run? It probably needs to be someone with credibility and name recognition. And it needs to be someone who can split the African-American vote with Johnson.

Mostly agree with you - though I was not a huge LL fan, but she is better than Johnson. I think a lot of voters were mesmerized by Johnson and how he talked to an old guy that wasn't seemingly with it. There are many people who voted for Johnson because Lightfoot, running as a progressive, in the end didn't progress their agenda well enough. I voted for Vallas because I thought it would have the Trump effect from a business person perspective. As you said about the others, very shallow - same thing would have happened and I think business would have been re-energized publicly at least. That's really what a lot of it is ultimately and Johnson really sucks at making sure the business community isn't pissed off psychologically.

[SamInTheLoop]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I voted for Vallas because I thought it would have the Trump effect from a business person perspective.

I'm not sure exactly what that means, because Trump didn't have the Trump effect from a business person perspective.

Among the better reasons to have voted for Vallas, myself included, was to have assessed he would have made a better mayor. At this stage, I'm more convinced of that assessment than ever.

[SamInTheLoop]

This is going to be a real nail-biter.

Any *good* estimates as to how many total ballots are outstanding as of Monday? Seems from Trib article there may be as many as 5k that will be counted during the day. One would assume that from Tuesday on new ballots to be counted will rapidly dwindle.

I was hopeful that Burke would hold on, but it seems that Harris may have a chance to pull this out.

I have no idea how many provisional ballots at the very end there will be. Don't know if anyone has a sense for what those volumes might look like? Perhaps anyone's guess at this point.

Guessing this may be a recount situation in any event. Is there a margin trigger for that?

And, I'll just go on the record now....if Harris does pull this out, the reason will be because more people voted for him than Burke.

[moorhosj1]

The city council is debating the big new borrowing plan the Mayor is proposing. This feels like another under-regulated slush fund. Here is a copy of the note I sent my Alderperson as she works through the plan. Feel free to use if you want to reach out to your Alderperson:

As the Council looks at the mayor's new plan to borrow over $1 billion for development today and pay back via retiring TIFs over the next few decades, it is worth understanding why today's rents are high and development lacking. Before authorizing new spending, we should have clear answers on why the city owns so many vacant lots near existing transit.

Why aren't those being developed?
Why isn't there a Chair of the Zoning Committee?
Why hasn't the mayor appointed the 5th member to the zoning board?

We keep throwing more money at the problem rather than fixing the nuts and bolts of running the city. If we need more development, we can use the land we own and approve the projects that are currently proposed. Borrowing more money to run through the same broken process doesn't seem like a "solution" but another future problem. DePaul recent released a study showing just how much vacant land the city already owns near transit. This should be exhibit A for building an actual top-down housing plan. https://elevatedchicago.org/chicagos...-near-transit/

[Chisouthside]

From what I've read in a couple of spots is that they haven't counted any mail ballots from the burbs since Tuesday and those are being processed separately from the city mail in ballots.

Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop

This is going to be a real nail-biter.

Any *good* estimates as to how many total ballots are outstanding as of Monday? Seems from Trib article there may be as many as 5k that will be counted during the day. One would assume that from Tuesday on new ballots to be counted will rapidly dwindle.

I was hopeful that Burke would hold on, but it seems that Harris may have a chance to pull this out.

I have no idea how many provisional ballots at the very end there will be. Don't know if anyone has a sense for what those volumes might look like? Perhaps anyone's guess at this point.

Guessing this may be a recount situation in any event. Is there a margin trigger for that?

And, I'll just go on the record now....if Harris does pull this out, the reason will be because more people voted for him than Burke.

[lakeshoredrive]

Geez, this is ridiculous. I hope the election is called today or tomorrow.

[CrazyCres]

O'Neill Burke wins Democrat primary for Cook Co. state's attorney: AP

https://abc7chicago.com/videoClip/14590617/