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  #321  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2024, 9:14 PM
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I mean, Buffalo does have pretty good-sized geographies that "look like Detroit". Buffalo is arguably somewhat healthier (or at least more urban and sustainable) bc its core remained more vital. Jobs and wealth didn't decentralize to the same extent.

It likely also didn't hurt that Buffalo is in a state where urban issues are front-and-center, so it has things like a decent regional transit system, some regional planning and the like.
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  #322  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2024, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
This doesn't look like Detroit to you? https://maps.app.goo.gl/uLqaD9Efwu8brvAH6
How about this?
https://maps.app.goo.gl/xCA954hsMt3Sdiq67
Or this?
https://maps.app.goo.gl/bN7ZgxC41MRds9z49

Spoiler: both of the above are in Houston within a mile or two of downtown, which is to say that neighborhoods like these are not exclusive to Detroit, or even the Rust Belt, but it is Detroit's predominance of them that sets it apart.

Where Buffalo differs from Detroit is that outside of east-central areas (like your example above), it maintained much more healthy inner city neighborhoods, including middle-class and wealthier neighborhoods and active commercial corridors in all parts of the city. It was also never wholly abandoned by the white working class people. Here is a cut and paste of a list I had of some of the walkable neighborhood business districts (with walk scores in paren) to give a better idea of how many of the neighborhoods survived, many on the East Side.

Allentown West (96) - https://goo.gl/maps/rAcCwxkeYuwiBxUe7
Allentown East (96) - https://goo.gl/maps/RWzSRpbCvPqQbqot7
Elmwood Village (94) - https://goo.gl/maps/duLi3vnN9PWEWCWa6
Lower West Side (91) - https://goo.gl/maps/2BfWLk99yEhdUUtG6
Elmwood/Bryant (90) - https://goo.gl/maps/WJHm8yGPLWb3hL5bA
West Side/Grant (90) - https://goo.gl/maps/meTnAzoYCX6q1oyp6
West Side/Upper Rock (74) - https://goo.gl/maps/3Xypz2uUz6NDVP5F9
Five Points (90) - https://goo.gl/maps/etRt8s58nDj6w1GD7
Connecticut Street (88) - https://goo.gl/maps/WcEi6Pf1dzpK9MUZ6
North Park/Hertel (84) - https://goo.gl/maps/r5hJ5MuxEySQsS5j6
University Heights (82) - https://goo.gl/maps/rChBm2oE8cbJQBKi7
South Park/Seneca (81) - https://goo.gl/maps/Npi5aTNn1zXPXkYQ9
East Side/LaSalle (75) - https://goo.gl/maps/3984mTctyCX2Gnmm6
East Side/Broadway/Fillmore (78) - https://goo.gl/maps/TnWPpLEkU6wMPdNQ6
Riverside (77) - https://goo.gl/maps/z8vEzWAopcLwtVAH8
East Side/Cold Spring (76) - https://goo.gl/maps/BgmsX2f5ToScqE7k9
Black Rock/Amherst (72) - https://goo.gl/maps/tR53eavhKHWXUveL6
Black Rock/Niagara (70) - https://goo.gl/maps/9QgiXWreAvmvijGj8
Hydraulics/Larkinville (75) - https://goo.gl/maps/pLeBcdcAiUKbLfNTA
Central Park (75) - https://goo.gl/maps/vYkDDPd4N5U6LjsZ6
East Side/Kensington (66) - https://goo.gl/maps/KZR4uZ6H6YPsocio7
East Side/Lovejoy(66) - https://goo.gl/maps/CTdind8B8VXpg2GD8
Parkside West (65) - https://goo.gl/maps/Td2aNn1eKmqNpUSu5
East Side/MLK Park (61) - https://goo.gl/maps/DtUGqqidWZVytU456
East Side/Kaisertown (55) - https://goo.gl/maps/BTs8T3feZLofT3Yq8

Note that the above does NOT include downtown and adjacent areas like the CBD, Theater District, Cobblestone, Canalside, Medical Center, and Waterfront Village, which would be the areas comparable to Detroit from downtown to Midtown. Detroit, being the larger city and metro, certainly has seen more new development here, but Buffalo also has seen quite a bit for a city its size.

Last edited by benp; Mar 13, 2024 at 10:58 PM.
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  #323  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2024, 11:26 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
This doesn't look like Detroit to you? https://maps.app.goo.gl/uLqaD9Efwu8brvAH6
No where near the scale of Detroit. Almost all rust belt cities have pockets of abandonment.

Buffalo has several intact neighborhood commercial corridors. Detroit has nearly none, save for a couple blocks of Livernois. Clearly Detroit is in far worse shape, and it's not even close.
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  #324  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 4:08 AM
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The only city in the rustbelt that comes close to Detroit on a block-to-block abandonment scale is Youngstown.
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  #325  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 4:20 AM
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I think people maybe don't know the 2020 census showed the small 40 square mile city limits of Buffalo grew by 17,000. Erie county grew by 35,000.

Both city of Detroit and Wayne county are still in decline.
The city of Detroit literally lost a Buffalo MSA equivalent in population from 1950-2020.
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  #326  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 4:20 PM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
No where near the scale of Detroit. Almost all rust belt cities have pockets of abandonment.

Buffalo has several intact neighborhood commercial corridors. Detroit has nearly none, save for a couple blocks of Livernois. Clearly Detroit is in far worse shape, and it's not even close.
I don't think anyone has ever claimed that the city of Detroit is not in worse shape than Buffalo in 2024. This is not the point of disagreement. The apparent disagreement is that you don't believe that the Detroit region's long running pattern of developing more land than the population can absorb is the fundamental problem. If the region is not developing more than the population absorbs then what explains the abandonment? Do you think all of the developed area that people moved to existed 30, 50, or 70 years ago? It did not exist then. It had to be built. It is a basic supply and demand problem.
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  #327  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 5:36 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I don't think anyone has ever claimed that the city of Detroit is not in worse shape than Buffalo in 2024. This is not the point of disagreement. The apparent disagreement is that you don't believe that the Detroit region's long running pattern of developing more land than the population can absorb is the fundamental problem. If the region is not developing more than the population absorbs then what explains the abandonment? Do you think all of the developed area that people moved to existed 30, 50, or 70 years ago? It did not exist then. It had to be built. It is a basic supply and demand problem.
Obviously continued sprawl without regional population growth is a problem. I've never argued that sprawl isn't one of the issues that has contributed to Detroit's condition. What I have repeatedly tried to argue, and what appears to not be getting through, is that sprawl alone cannot explain Detroit. If it did, we'd have Detroits all over this country, and it wouldn't be such an outlier in terms of urban devastation. Sprawl alone cannot explain why Detroit has virtually no intact commercial corridors, or why there are huge expanses of urban prairie across the entire city, or why essentially all wealth fled the city years ago, or why the population continues to be in free fall to this day.

Sprawl is the symptom. If everything was great, or at least tolerable, in Detroit, why would just about everyone who had the means to move out do so? There are push factors in play that fuel the sprawl machine. Is it racism? Crime? Poor schools? Lack of urban amenities? A weak core? Environmental issues? The answer is probably yes to all of these and more.

Buffalo has many in tact, even thriving, commercial corridors and neighborhoods across the city. It retained wealth and balanced racial demographics in the city. This is in spite of 60+ years of regional population stagnation and sprawl that has resulted in an urban area that has more than doubled in size. Aka the ingredients you claim are wholly responsible for Detroit's condition. Given this, there simply has to be more to the equation than you're acknowledging.
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  #328  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 5:42 PM
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The apparent disagreement is that you don't believe that the Detroit region's long running pattern of developing more land than the population can absorb is the fundamental problem.
I think the disagreement comes from some of us not accepting that unchecked sprawl was the key differentiating factor for the current state of city proper Detroit today

Going back to the Chicago comparison, Chicagoland has also had unchecked sprawl for the past 7+ decades, but the central city didn't empty out to nearly the same degree.

Part 1 is that a substantial amount of white folks didn't white flight out of Chicago, whereas white flight out of Detroit was the severest case out of all major US cities

Part 2 is that Chicago got a lot of Latino and Asian immigrants to come and live in the city proper that backfilled a large amount of the white flight that did occur. Metro Detroit's Latino and Asian populations have also grown, but they largely haven't settled in the city proper.


In rough terms, Chicago is home to 800K Latinos and 200K Asians, while those same numbers for Detroit are only 50K and 10K. Considering that Detroit was approximately half the size of Chicago in 1950, let's say that Detroit had kept proportional pace with Chicago for those two demos. That would mean 400K Latinos and 100K Asians in Detroit today, a combined number 440K higher than the 60K that city actually has.

If those extra 440K people had been available to backfill some of the white flight over the last handful of decades, Detroit's abandonment issues would've obviously been lessened considerably.

So to me, the differentiating factor wasn't the unchecked sprawl, it was the near completeness of white flight combined with the lack of backfilling populations moving into the voids left behind.
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  #329  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 5:42 PM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Obviously continued sprawl without regional population growth is a problem. I've never argued that sprawl isn't one of the issues that has contributed to Detroit's condition. What I have repeatedly tried to argue, and what appears to not be getting through, is that sprawl alone cannot explain Detroit. If it did, we'd have Detroits all over this country, and it wouldn't be such an outlier in terms of urban devastation. Sprawl alone cannot explain why Detroit has virtually no intact commercial corridors, or why there are huge expanses of urban prairie across the entire city, or why essentially all wealth fled the city years ago, or why the population continues to be in free fall to this day.

Sprawl is the symptom. If everything was great, or at least tolerable, in Detroit, why would just about everyone who had the means to move out do so? There are push factors in play that fuel the sprawl machine. Is it racism? Crime? Poor schools? Lack of urban amenities? A weak core? Environmental issues? The answer is probably yes to all of these and more.

Buffalo has many in tact, even thriving, commercial corridors and neighborhoods across the city. It retained wealth and balanced racial demographics in the city. This is in spite of 60+ years of regional population stagnation and sprawl that has resulted in an urban area that has more than doubled in size. Aka the ingredients you claim are wholly responsible for Detroit's condition. Given this, there simply has to be more to the equation than you're acknowledging.
Why can't Detroit just be the worst case example of uncontrolled sprawl?
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  #330  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 6:38 PM
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Why can't Detroit just be the worst case example of uncontrolled sprawl?
On Rust Belt? In general, Atlanta seems unmatched. It never ends.
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  #331  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 7:32 PM
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On Rust Belt? In general, Atlanta seems unmatched. It never ends.
Well Detroit's issue is sprawl + slow population growth. Atlanta is at least growing, so the sprawl doesn't depopulate the core in favor of the periphery the same way that it does in Detroit. Atlanta does sprawl much more than Detroit, but it hasn't had the problem so far of sprawling much faster than the population is growing.
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  #332  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 8:37 PM
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Why can't Detroit just be the worst case example of uncontrolled sprawl?
To be fair, I don't think Detroit is the worst example of uncontrolled sprawl in the Great Lakes region. It's probably on-par with Chicago and Cleveland. I'd argue Pittsburgh sprawl is the worst due to the topography that causes it to sprawl like a muthafcka (Cranberry is nuts) and it's declining more than Metro Detroit. Yet, it's core is quite healthy (well, seemingly).

I think Steely nailed it in regards to the immigration backfill.
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  #333  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 9:22 PM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
No where near the scale of Detroit. Almost all rust belt cities have pockets of abandonment.

Buffalo has several intact neighborhood commercial corridors. Detroit has nearly none, save for a couple blocks of Livernois. Clearly Detroit is in far worse shape, and it's not even close.
You are mistaken that Detroit’s only commercial corridor is Livernois from 8
to south of 6. Sure Detroit has had more abandonment then any other city but it’s been doing a bang up job mothballing what it can and getting it into the hands of people who will do right by it. Demolishing what can’t be saved in a strategic way that provides the biggest boost for areas that are experiencing revitalization & or stabilization.


- Heres a sort of quick accounting for a rundown of neighborhoods / districts. It’s quick and sloppy but I feel I’m hitting the important points while being realistic.


Detroit is a huge city fitting Boston, Manhattan & San Francisco in it as had been noted for some time. 1/3 made it though the bad times with high occupancy, 1/3 made it through in a mixed condition what that means depends on where you are in the city. However the demolition, land bank, park and streetscape improvements along with a revival of city services has turned some areas in this condition from breeders of blight into an asset. Green space with occupied homes and businesses in the mix is a novel and cool neighbor to have next to a traditional high density Detroit neighborhood.

While the older industrial areas that were overwhelmingly vacant have been set aside for green / blue space, sit fallow and grow things for profit or naturally. There’s also the increasingly high demand for new class an industrial space. The Packard Plant besides the building on the south side of Grand Blvd which is being saved to be renovated the rest of the site looks like it’s going to be a new factory.

There are huge quadrants like the outter westside which is mostly high occupancy with then exception of Brighmoor & the SE corner of the Southfield - I-96 interchange.

The Midwest section of the inner city centered around where 96 runs along Grand River is high vacancy. That’s the area to the west and south west of Dexter - Linwood and North of Corktown.

A lot of the lower east side with the exceptions of Lafayette & Elmwood Parks, Indian Village, West Village & the Jefferson Corridor to the river is high vacancy. This was one of the oldest parts of the city a lot of the area especially to the west was similar to Corktown & was seen as a target for urban renewal. It never was completed but 94 was built fast and with little regard for the area.

The Gratiot Corridor north and south of Lasalle College Park (an Outer Drive neighborhood) has high vacancy from outside of Eastern Market to 7 mile. The area south of Harper Woods and north of 94 has good density and quality housing stock but the area west of Harper Woods, Regent Park has been struggling with crime. It’s been targeted by police because it become an outlier with violent crime increasing. In general the east side has more problems then the west the integration of city and suburb isn’t really taking place between Macomb and Wayne.


The Northeast side of the city is the quadrant that is having the most problems with stabilization. Lasalle College Park east of City Airport has great housing stock and is pretty well kept but it has crime problems. There’s good housing with many of the neighborhoods along the north east fringe but again crime which is dropping is a problem. So is the drainage system in the area it starts under the heavily urbanize central Woodward Corridor and floods as the various underground branches come together north of city airport.
—————

Commercial neighborhoods

West Vernor west of 75 almost to Livernois / Dragoon is pretty solid.

E. Warren from Morningside through East English Village and into Cornerstone (ending at GP border Moross) has had and is undergoing a major streetscape improvement with a significant amount of new stores opening.

Mack Ave from Cadiux to Moross has is vibrant along the Detroit side.

Here’s one people don’t normally think of. The Lodge Freeway an above ground boulevard the same Northwestern Highway that still exists in Farmington & Southfield. The way it was built is a bit painful to think of when you look at the wholesale destruction of other areas. Yet much of the street frontage was preserved from 8 mile to Wyoming, it has some residential mixed in but it’s mostly commercial & is well kept and becoming more vibrant.

W. Warren from about Rouge Park to the Southfield Freeway is kind of emblematic of “new city” Detroit commercial neighborhoods. It’s a messy mix of historic clumps mixed with set back strip malls & auto focused businesses. However W. Warren east of Southfield to the Dearborn border has just undergone a beautiful streetscape transformation & has solid intact historic commercial stock.

McNichols west of Livernois has a nice intact commercial strip going past Marygrove College to the west of the Lodge where it begins to become less vibrant and buildings haven’t been updated in a while. There’s a lot of interesting things going on near U of D and Marygrove

There’s a lot of blocks on W McNichols that havn’t really had much activity over the past 10-15 years that are well kept and new small businesses are moving in to mix with the one big and small prosper and mom n pop that stuck it out. 7
Mile west of Southfield has a well preserved commercial strip that’s had more business move in recently and is getting a new streetscape as well as that redevelopment of that giant southern mansion looking building that was torn down a decade ago.

Grand River Ave especially from Evergreen to Southfield is on the same level as Livernois. There’s new apartments being built and the area pretty much at home in a nice suburb. GR and Greenfield I hope to see that former old school mall that’s only half occupied get the attention it needs one way or another. I’m still waiting on the McNichols & Grand River Meijer and street front shopping to finish linking Rosedale & Old Redford. The Grand River reconstruction from Lasher into Farmington Hills will go a ways to reviving GR in Redford and getting suburban shoppers in the city and vice versa.
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Last edited by Velvet_Highground; Mar 14, 2024 at 9:41 PM. Reason: Hard to read
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  #334  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 9:32 PM
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Immigration backfill is definitely a key to Chicago’s sprawl being a “success”. A comprehensive mass transit system to hold up a large region is also just as necessary.

Detroit has had other pressures acting on it besides just poor urban planning. The city is going to continue reviving to a degree do to quality housing stock available, investments in infrastructure and basic services including police and schools improving.

However it’s going to hit a wall eventually without investment in transit and attracting immigration. Where that wall is how long the city and region can coast on rebuilding the basic fundamentals is unclear.

*I’m not naysaying because I do believe that the region has strong fundamentals but I think of the wall as being slow/stagnant growth or even population loss. The region can grow as is for a while making up for missed opportunities but in 20 years or so the sprawl paradigm will hit and likely hard.

The movement towards getting commuter rail going down Woodward & Michigan Ave is a good place to start in terms of transportation. With the regional density getting a quality reliable bus system is going to be the backbone of any transit plan moving forward. I like that the city is planning simultaneously to reconfigure the People Mover while planning what an expansion would look like if the stars aligned and the opportunity presented itself.

The Michigan Ave / I-94 self driving concept is cool and innovative & it would be great if Detroit was able to pioneer this in a real world environment helping to solve regional transportation issues. There’s all kinds of ideas being thrown around such as transportation services owned by automakers that fill in gaps between an “Uber” type service offering self driving and or regular vehicle service’s. I’ve been spitballing with some engineers about the topic of what a future intermodal transit center might look like / offer.
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Last edited by Velvet_Highground; Mar 14, 2024 at 10:07 PM. Reason: Clarification
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  #335  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 9:40 PM
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To be fair, I don't think Detroit is the worst example of uncontrolled sprawl in the Great Lakes region. It's probably on-par with Chicago and Cleveland. I'd argue Pittsburgh sprawl is the worst due to the topography that causes it to sprawl like a muthafcka (Cranberry is nuts) and it's declining more than Metro Detroit. Yet, it's core is quite healthy (well, seemingly).

I think Steely nailed it in regards to the immigration backfill.
That's interesting. Pittsburgh doesn't strike me as being nearly as sprawly as Metro Detroit.

In terms of physical area, Metro Detroit probably sprawls a similar distance from downtown Detroit as Chicagoland does from the loop, but Metro Detroit is also half the population of Chicagoland. I think Metro Detroit sprawls farther than Cleveland, though.
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  #336  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 9:51 PM
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In terms of physical area, Metro Detroit probably sprawls a similar distance from downtown Detroit as Chicagoland does from the loop, but Metro Detroit is also half the population of Chicagoland.
Going by the UA figures, that can't be true

Chicago UA: 8,671,746 people | 2,337.89 square miles

Detroit UA: 3,776,890 people | 1,284.83 square miles
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  #337  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Velvet_Highground View Post
Immigration backfill is definitely a key to Chicago’s sprawl being a “success”. A comprehensive mass transit system to hold up a large region is also just as necessary.

Detroit has had other pressures acting on it besides just poor urban planning. The city is going to continue reviving to a degree do to quality housing stock available, investments in infrastructure and basic services including police and schools improving.

However it’s going to hit a wall eventually without investment in transit and attracting immigration. Where that wall is how long the city and region can coast on rebuilding the basic fundamentals is unclear.
A development freeze 30 years ago would have helped to stabilize the city of Detroit, as well as the inner ring areas experiencing similar issues, but there was zero political will to do something like that at the time; it was the most toxic era in the city vs suburb fiefdom wars. But by 20 years ago the adverse effects of sprawl were being felt outside of the city of Detroit's borders:

Quote:
Officials: Patterson fails to see problems of sprawl

By The Oakland Press
PUBLISHED: February 19, 2004 at 7:32 a.m.

But County Commissioner David Coulter, D-Ferndale, said the county has no real urban development policy and simply embraces development of green spaces without considering the impact.

“Mr. Patterson fails to realize that older cities like Ferndale, Oak Park, Hazel Park and Royal Oak are tied to a great extent to the fortunes of Detroit,” Coulter said. “He refuses to recognize that urban sprawl even exists.”

https://www.theoaklandpress.com/2004...ems-of-sprawl/
This was 20 years ago, and by then the problem was obvious well beyond Detroit's borders. This was southern Oakland County cities loudly complaining that the county leadership's (at the time) sprawl at all cost policies were starting to hurt cities in the county as well. Ironically, David Coulter is now the Oakland County Executive, but the Macomb County Executive has picked up where L Brooks Patterson left off, as the Detroit area vanguard of sprawl.
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  #338  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Velvet_Highground View Post
You are mistaken that Detroit’s only commercial corridor is Livernois from 8
to south of 6. Sure Detroit has had more abandonment then any other city but it’s been doing a bang up job mothballing what it can and getting it into the hands of people who will do right by it. Demolishing what can’t be saved in a strategic way that provides the biggest boost for areas that are experiencing revitalization & or stabilization.


- Heres a sort of quick accounting for a rundown of neighborhoods / districts. It’s quick and sloppy but I feel I’m hitting the important points while being realistic.


Detroit is a huge city fitting Boston, Manhattan & San Francisco in it as had been noted for some time. 1/3 made it though the bad times with high occupancy, 1/3 made it through in a mixed condition what that means depends on where you are in the city.
I appreciate your post, and will admit to a bit of hyperbole with my commercial corridor comment. I know of the (mostly) Mexican corridor along Vernor, but that slipped my mind. I applaud Detroit for its revitalization efforts, and would love to see continued progress in the areas you highlighted and beyond.

Still, for such a large city, there's a a pretty small amount of surviving urban commercial nodes. And, tbh, some of the examples you shared don't exactly appear to be very occupied or urban. If these are all that's left out of a city that can fit SF, Boston, and Manhattan in it...well, that kinda proves my point.

But again, I appreciate the information you shared, and I hope to see more in the way of a Detroit resurgence for many years ahead
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  #339  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Going by the UA figures, that can't be true

Chicago UA: 8,671,746 people | 2,337.89 square miles

Detroit UA: 3,776,890 people | 1,284.83 square miles
I'm talking about point to point distance. Chicago's urban area sprawls more evenly away from the loop than Detroit's urban area from downtown Detroit.
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  #340  
Old Posted Mar 14, 2024, 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ColDayMan View Post
To be fair, I don't think Detroit is the worst example of uncontrolled sprawl in the Great Lakes region. It's probably on-par with Chicago and Cleveland. I'd argue Pittsburgh sprawl is the worst due to the topography that causes it to sprawl like a muthafcka (Cranberry is nuts) and it's declining more than Metro Detroit. Yet, it's core is quite healthy (well, seemingly).

I think Steely nailed it in regards to the immigration backfill.
I agree with you Colday, but have to point out that Pittsburgh has received VERY little immigration-- far less than Detroit. So if that's the key differentiator for Chicago vs Detroit, what do you think explains Pittsburgh's stable core in spite of the sprawl + stagnant regional population situation there?
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