Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[L'homard]

Couple of points.
Rumours from folks who should know tell me things were NOT going well in the coalition, not well at all, thus the election call. Just because we didn't hear about any discord doesn't mean there was none. Think of that couple who got divorced right out of the blue, who seemed so happy. We all know a couple like that, or maybe several. Same thing here.
There is a TON of polling going on, despite what some radio station said. It's private polling, for internal use only. All parties do it. They constantly are polling.

I'm not too worried about an election. If we can have 3 byelections in a pandemic, then we can have 45 byelections. Or however many ridings we have nowadays.

[MonctonRad]

Premier Blaine Higgs has made his first major promise of the election campaign........

"Read my lips - there will be no closures of hospitals or of hospital ERs during the term of this government."

[josh_cat_eyes]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Premier Blaine Higgs has made his first major promise of the election campaign........

"Read my lips - there will be no closures of hospitals or of hospital ERs during the term of this government."

I think the pandemic showed how important ER’s can be. I can’t imagine how anyone would justify shutting them down at this point.

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by L'homard

Couple of points.
Rumours from folks who should know tell me things were NOT going well in the coalition, not well at all, thus the election call. Just because we didn't hear about any discord doesn't mean there was none. Think of that couple who got divorced right out of the blue, who seemed so happy. We all know a couple like that, or maybe several. Same thing here.
There is a TON of polling going on, despite what some radio station said. It's private polling, for internal use only. All parties do it. They constantly are polling.

I'm not too worried about an election. If we can have 3 byelections in a pandemic, then we can have 45 byelections. Or however many ridings we have nowadays.

What are you talking about? This isn't some secret love affair going on, it's politics. If there were issues aside from "I just want everyone to agree with me" it could easily be aired out and grieved publicly. I'm sure Higgs or Vickers would have wasted no time doing so.

Higgs was just itching to find a way to call an election and gave a silly ultimatum/terms, that way he would be "forced" to call an election. I think he's done fine under a minority, so if he manages a majority, I hope he continues doing what he's doing.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

I think the pandemic showed how important ER’s can be. I can’t imagine how anyone would justify shutting them down at this point.

Agreed. It would also be political suicide for Higgs to try and do this again and he knows it (regardless of the economic and logistical arguments in favour of such a move).

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by josh_cat_eyes

I think the pandemic showed how important ER’s can be. I can’t imagine how anyone would justify shutting them down at this point.

Conversely, I don't know how anyone would justify keeping open ERs overnight that see single digit visits and can't handle actual emergencies.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agreed. It would also be political suicide for Higgs to try and do this again and he knows it (regardless of the economic and logistical arguments in favour of such a move).

Well it shouldn't be a political decision in the first place.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by OliverD

Well it shouldn't be a political decision in the first place.

If it had been up to the RHAs, these hospitals would already be closed, and the funding transferred to the larger regional hospitals.

[Dengler Avenue]

I think he's done fine under a minority, so if he manages a majority, I hope he continues doing what he's doing.

Keep in mind, a majority government will behave very different from a minority one.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Keep in mind, a majority government will behave very different from a minority one.

The lack of abortion access and even moreso lgbtq+ medical services are of concern to me. Seeing the various stories floating around I would worry what a majority PC government would mean for these folks down the road.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by lirette

The lack of abortion access and even moreso lgbtq+ medical services are of concern to me. Seeing the various stories floating around I would worry what a majority PC government would mean for these folks down the road.

I agree that this is a major concern.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by lirette

The lack of abortion access and even moreso lgbtq+ medical services are of concern to me. Seeing the various stories floating around I would worry what a majority PC government would mean for these folks down the road.

Indeed, which is why the PCs will continue to be shut out of Fredericton South and increasingly the neighbouring ridings. The city is growing and urbanizing and the PCs don't really have the policies to keep up with it.

[MonctonRad]

Current 338canada.com projections:

Popular Vote:

- PC - 39.5%
- LIB - 32.8%
- GRN - 14.9%
- PA - 7.2%
- NDP - 5.5%

Seat Projections:

- PC - 28
- LIB - 17
- GRN - 3
- PA - 1
- NDP - 0

If you want play around wth their interactive map of the provincial electoral ridings, here's the website:
https://338canada.com/nb/map.htm

[Bishop2047]

^

Vickers is not all that safe in his own riding.

Not looking good numbers for People's Alliance. Shame as they did make some good noise, and bring a more practical approach to language laws. Thought they would continue to grow with more exposure. Glad to see the Greens will most likely grab a few seats, but with less of a say if these number hold true.

This most recent government was my favorite in my lifetime. Minorities force real dialogue and some positive change was allowed to happen. Will be a bit closer in the end I think, so should be a good race.

[ColSJ]

I’m shocked at how well the PC’s are projected to do in the 3 big cities. It’ll be interesting to see the end results, Saint John harbour should be one to watch!

[Feneant]

338canada appears buggy if not all parties have a candidate. The riding we've moved into (Moncton East) shows as having no NDP but then below it shows as having an NDP but no PA, which is unfortunate because I happily voted for them last election even if it means my vote was basically thrown our in our garbage electoral system.

The PA will suffer because their supporters are happy with the work Briggs has been doing and they want to keep the liberals out of there. Articles like this one also show that Briggs understands the issues PA fights for https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ints-1.5695749

Full disclosure- Je suis francophone.

[Taeolas]

Those projections are disappointing. I ultimately wouldn't mind Higgs staying as premier, but I really don't want to see a majority. It feels like it is rewarding Higgs for a blatant power grab by holding the election while the pandemic was on going, and it really annoys me.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Those projections are disappointing. I ultimately wouldn't mind Higgs staying as premier, but I really don't want to see a majority. It feels like it is rewarding Higgs for a blatant power grab by holding the election while the pandemic was on going, and it really annoys me.

I'll never vote PC, but I would have been more than comfortable with him continuing this minority government.

Unfortunately Vickers is really not bringing anything different the to the table to sway any voters back to the liberals. The liberal & PC parties in NB are almost interchangeable. The NDP in NB is dying off but has lots of great youth running who would bring some new ideas to the table.

With the PA's losing momentum I really hoped this would be the election to bring the greens some additional seats, they have the strongest leader of the major parties right now IMO. I know there was some more polling done this weekend which will capture voters feelings after the announcement of the election, so that will be interesting to see.

I don't know if some of what higgs has done really gets covered well in the media/people watch closely enough to follow. The way I see casual voters is they see the pandemic response and are fine to see him continue but don't look at any other issues. Leadership during a crisis is obviously one of the more important roles of government, which is again why I'd be fine with him leading a minority government.

Clinic 554 could be saved for $140,000 dollars (one of higgs recent proposals was a $2M war on drugs)... but with nothing being done and a potential majority government coming in a lot of people could be losing their health care provider. A sad situation.

[gehrhardt]

I wonder if people still remember Vickers' statement pre-pandemic about voting down the budget before it was even released?

The optics of that statement were terrible, when he simply could have waited until it was released and then voted it down (had COVID not happened). It was a blatant attempt at a power grab.

I've never voted Liberal (provincially). As a teen, my family was adversely affected by the nurses' union wage freeze implemented by the McKenna government. I still have a sour taste in my mouth from it.

[adamuptownsj]

Thinking about the presumed 2024 general election, new boundaries will have to be in place. I assume the 2021 census will shift one seat from the upper river valley/eastern Acadia towards Moncton, and Fredericton's ring of suburban/rural seats will probably need to shrink quite a bit inwards.

On a micro level, Portland-Simonds will probably have to shed population to Saint John East, but Harbour and Lancaster won't change too much.