Queen's Park Politics

[vid]

They would probably be preferable to another Mike Harris-type forming government.,

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

If a John Tory type leader comes back to the PC's, they will lose their rural base - and never form government, heck would likely fall to 3rd party behind the NDP, as conservatives stay home or vote for a new party.

Maybe, maybe not. John Tory performed better than Hudak relative to the conditions of the time. The Liberals were fresher, newer, and Harris failures were fresh in the minds of voters in 2007. In 2007 there was no worldwide economic depression to deal with, it was a year before the shit hit the fan. McGuinty was easily re-elected.

Hudak inherited a worldwide economic depression of which McGuinty could easily get the blame for - despite his not having any control over - and Hudak couldn't capitalize on it enough to win government. Enough time has passed since the Harris days that a lot of voters who don't live politics day to day really don't remember how bad the Harris policies were, or at least buy the excuses that right wingers pan out in defense of his bad policies.

While I'm not interested in progressing the PC cause, the Ontario PC's would do well by dumping the far right Hudak and getting another Tory-like candidate in the running. Ontario rejected Hudak in what should have been an easy election for him. Hudak is trash, and the Ontario PC should flush him out and find someone who has the gravitas to lead a progressive province like Ontario. There are real conservatives in Ontario, but not many Hudak types relative to the overall population. Ontario still has a community of true Progressive Conservatives that aren't of Harris or Hudak ilk. Even Harris wasn't quite like Hudak, Harris wasn't blatantly anti-worker. Hudak is going around Ontario blaming unions for why Caterpillar closed its operations in London when the story is far more complicated. The old Ontario PC wouldn't have blamed its own people for a corporate decision. Hudak's far right, out of touch beliefs blame the people.

Ontarians generally don't support that kind of trash talk.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Brandon716

Maybe, maybe not. John Tory performed better than Hudak relative to the conditions of the time. The Liberals were fresher, newer, and Harris failures were fresh in the minds of voters in 2007. In 2007 there was no worldwide economic depression to deal with, it was a year before the shit hit the fan. McGuinty was easily re-elected.

Hudak inherited a worldwide economic depression of which McGuinty could easily get the blame for - despite his not having any control over - and Hudak couldn't capitalize on it enough to win government. Enough time has passed since the Harris days that a lot of voters who don't live politics day to day really don't remember how bad the Harris policies were, or at least buy the excuses that right wingers pan out in defense of his bad policies.

While I'm not interested in progressing the PC cause, the Ontario PC's would do well by dumping the far right Hudak and getting another Tory-like candidate in the running. Ontario rejected Hudak in what should have been an easy election for him. Hudak is trash, and the Ontario PC should flush him out and find someone who has the gravitas to lead a progressive province like Ontario. There are real conservatives in Ontario, but not many Hudak types relative to the overall population. Ontario still has a community of true Progressive Conservatives that aren't of Harris or Hudak ilk. Even Harris wasn't quite like Hudak, Harris wasn't blatantly anti-worker. Hudak is going around Ontario blaming unions for why Caterpillar closed its operations in London when the story is far more complicated. The old Ontario PC wouldn't have blamed its own people for a corporate decision. Hudak's far right, out of touch beliefs blame the people.

Ontarians generally don't support that kind of trash talk.

In other words, two identical parties. Conservative-minded voters would go to a new party, and split the vote.

[Dr Nevergold]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

In other words, two identical parties.

By this, you mean what exactly?

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Brandon716

By this, you mean what exactly?

The reason the faith-based education issue was so big in 2007 was partially because there was nothing else in the John Tory PC platform that significantly differentiated from the Liberal platform - basically John McGuinty or Dalton Tory. That is why they struggled badly in rural areas, and lost sure-fire seats to the Liberals, because their base stayed home.

The challenge the PC's face is they need to both hold the rural base of 30-35 seats which are VERY conservative in the Randy Hillier mold (the reason Hudak made serious gains there is because of the Green Energy Act and the fact those ridings think climate change is a scam), yet need to find 20-25 more seats elsewhere in more progressive areas where they can pick off soft Liberal supporters. If such existed for multiple elections in a row, surely they would get mad of it, and an opportunity for a new right-wing party would exist. They likely would not win, it would do nothing but ensure mammoth to near-unanimous Liberal majorities, but it would decimate the PC Party.

If an election was held today, I would expect a weak PC minority with only a small number of seats gained, mainly because of Liberal supporters jumping to the NDP.

[Dr Nevergold]

^I don't know if there are that many far-right ridings, Ontario had a true Progressive Conservative movement for years, even in rural areas. But then again I haven't studied the numbers enough to know which riding leans what way with a tally of votes. I have a general idea, but I'm not going to be throwing out exact number projections.

It may very well be good for the PC's to nominate someone more progressive if they want to win though, and trash the far-right Hudak. Something that is playing very strongly in the GTA where a lot of those soft-liberal voters could theoretically vote PC if there was a progressive nominated is the Rob Ford factor. GTA residents are largely seeing what kind of an embarrassment he is, and most people think of him negatively in the 905 region and are now proud they aren't part of the city.

Then again this may not affect provincial elections at all, but I think there is a correlation with seeing how pompous and ignorant Mayor Lardbutt is and most people who could otherwise vote PC won't dare do so with Hudak in charge, they don't want two major mistakes in office at once with the trifecta of Harper sitting at the top, more calm in public than his lower level minions at the local level.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Brandon716

^I don't know if there are that many far-right ridings, Ontario had a true Progressive Conservative movement for years, even in rural areas. But then again I haven't studied the numbers enough to know which riding leans what way with a tally of votes. I have a general idea, but I'm not going to be throwing out exact number projections.

It may very well be good for the PC's to nominate someone more progressive if they want to win though, and trash the far-right Hudak. Something that is playing very strongly in the GTA where a lot of those soft-liberal voters could theoretically vote PC if there was a progressive nominated is the Rob Ford factor. GTA residents are largely seeing what kind of an embarrassment he is, and most people think of him negatively in the 905 region and are now proud they aren't part of the city.

Then again this may not affect provincial elections at all, but I think there is a correlation with seeing how pompous and ignorant Mayor Lardbutt is and most people who could otherwise vote PC won't dare do so with Hudak in charge, they don't want two major mistakes in office at once with the trifecta of Harper sitting at the top, more calm in public than his lower level minions at the local level.

The TRUE far-right ridings are the rural ridings in eastern Ontario surrounding (but not including) Ottawa, west along Highway 7/12 and 60 to Georgian Bay. Basically a triangle from about Orillia to North Bay and east to Cornwall, give or take. It doesn't include the 401 corridor from Kingston west though. That area has only a handful of ridings though,

That is true about the Rob Ford factor, he does have a loyal following (i.e. about 30-35%) but turns off about 60% of the voters. Still, he could easily be re-elected if the left is split in 2014. The suburban 905 (Mississauga, Brampton, south York Region) and the outer 416 really aren't that different, and indeed are fairly Red Tory/Liberal, sometimes able to go to the Conservatives in certain situations (federally it was because the Liberals collapsed and went too far left, creating a vote split).

Basically, in Ontario (except in the north), I see 6 pedigrees:

Inner 416 - No chance for anything even remotely right of centre, the Conservatives are wasting their time trying to get policies supporting here. The battle here is Liberal/NDP, with the general viewpoint being much closer to the NDP these days (more left than centre).

Outer 416/Suburban 905 - As mentioned, leaning Liberal but can go Conservative in the right circumstances. Some enclaves might be becoming more NDP-friendly though. Whoever can win the "ethnic" votes generally wins here. This is classic Progressive Conservative/Liberal country.

Distant/Exurban 905 - Leaning Conservative, can be shaken in the right circumstance (centre-right Liberals vs. Tea Party Conservatives) or in a split vote. Right-wing conservatives can win here against weaker Liberals or if they draw too far left though. NDP has no chance here.

Rural areas beyond the GTA - More conservative than ever, very strong anti-government view exists here today. Such is especially true in eastern Ontario, which is Tea Party country today. They won't give a blank check either, as John Tory found out in a 2009 by-election which he lost being too urban and not right-wing enough. Rural areas include the smaller communities (i.e. less than 50,000). Liberals can only win on a badly split vote or a Conservative miscalculation keeping the base at home.

Mid-sized cities - They seem to break the mold. There are definitely pockets of Liberal and NDP support in these cities (i.e. Ottawa, Hamilton, London, Kitchener-Waterloo) and even some traditionally liberal smaller cities (i.e. Guelph, Kingston). In the suburban areas of these cities, they are receptive at times of the conservative message, while urban areas are very resistant and are more NDP than Liberal. Riding boundaries are important here.

Basically, a party needs to win 3 of those 5 groupings to win power. I didn't really cover Northern Ontario since incumbency is king there, and removing them is rare, and party affiliation doesn't matter as much.

[vid]

People in Northern Ontario tend to look at elections at any level as a pop quiz to guess who their representatives are. They re-elect everyone and then walk away feeling smart for knowing who already holds that office.

Then they go home and complain that the same people were re-elected. Honestly, I am not sure why this region has democracy. We don't know how to use it.

Definitely looking like the NDP is going to take the north though, the anti-Liberal sentiment is so high that I am still surprised the Liberals were re-elected. As for the PCs, they run left-wingers here to compete with the NDP and Liberals. A right wing PC candidate has absolutely no chance northwest of North Bay. The most conservative option for us is usually the Green Party.

Michael Gravelle and Joe Comuzzi have demonstrated to most people in NWO that having a voice in a Liberal government doesn't mean government benefits are going to flow your way. With the Ring of Fire smelter going to Sudbury, I think you can safely bet that both Gravelle and Mauro are finished their careers at Queens Park with the next election. Kenora will be a toss-up, with a left-wing Conservative federally and Howard Hampton now just a memory, it could very well swing PC next time. Depending on who they run. As I said, the PC Party runs very strange candidates up here.

[Dr Nevergold]

^You said anti-Liberal sentiment was so high there wasn't a chance that they could win in 2011, but they won urban districts.

Speaking provincially, not federally, the OLP is strong across the board in smaller cities and larger cities alike. The OLP does horribly in rural areas. The Ontario NDP has a few seats they tend to get in the very large cities, or smaller manufacturing towns where union presence is high.

I don't know that the OLP is really that weak up north, they won seats in Thunder Bay, St Ste Marie, Sudbury, even North Bay. Every city had Liberal wins, but it was limited to just the city proper, the second votes come up out of town it turns hard Conservative.

I suppose i'm a centrist, because while I despise cuts when they aren't necessary, McGuinty is facing a really bad economy that isn't his doing. Sometimes cuts are necessary, and its better to use the Liberal method of cuts by necessity rather than ideological bloodletting that the Hudak Cons are rabidly foaming at the mouth to drop on Ontarians... The NDP just seems like its looking to break the left and centre-left apart out of pompous arrogance. If Andrea Horwath doesn't stop her arrogant parade, she may just lead Ontario to a Conservative majority no different than how the federal situation ended up when Layton handed the government to Harper after bringing down the federal Liberals a few years back.

Of course that is my opinion. Doctors who have had extremely high pay raises for a decade now crying foul, teachers unions pulling back when McGuinty invested so much into them over the past decade. It seems like a lot of Ontarians don't realize who the real enemy is, and they are going to let Hudak's clan rise up in the split if they don't watch it. Harper has only had a majority government for barely one year, and his first Conservative majority budget included tons of federal jobs cuts that are wholly unnecessary. It is ideologically driven and does nothing to expand the economy. It is clear that the Canadian Conservative movement both federally and the Ontario PC no longer has a progressive cause within it, and Horwath should heed and work with McGuinty. Hudak would be much worse than Harper. He would probably pull funding immediately from huge projects like the transportation initiatives in Toronto or Kitchener-Waterloo if he had the capability. It wouldn't just hurt urban Ontario, it'd kill the injections going on up in Thunder Bay as well and all the supplier plants.

Thunder Bay owes itself to voting Liberal at this point, its a smaller city and needs that injection and it'll potentially lose a great deal if Hudak comes to power. There's incentive in the north for voting McGuinty.

[vid]

Originally Posted by Brandon716

^You said anti-Liberal sentiment was so high there wasn't a chance that they could win in 2011, but they won urban districts.

Incumbents were re-elected, largely because the NDP candidates (which are the same people at both levels of government) are now serving in Ottawa, meaning that the new NDP candidates in the provincial election are unknowns.

Originally Posted by Brandon716

I don't know that the OLP is really that weak up north, they won seats in Thunder Bay, St Ste Marie, Sudbury, even North Bay.

North Bay went PC. Only central Sudbury went Liberal, because like Michael Gravelle, Rick Bartolucci is a very powerful incumbent with a huge base who seems impervious to scandal. He and Gravelle were both first elected in 1995 as well. Mauro only got re-elected in Thunder Bay because no one knew who Mary Kozyras was, and as we explained above, incumbency is very powerful here. Orazietti in Sault Ste. Marie has brought the riding a lot of pork, and is an Italian candidate in a riding with a lot of Italian people. (Within Thunder Bay, Italian candidates always get more votes than anyone else in Italian neighbourhoods.) Gravelle has been able to bring in a lot of pork for the last five of his 18 year term but spent much of the first decade and a half accomplishing almost nothing for us.

Kenora, Timmins-James Bay, Temiskaming, Algoma-Manitoulin, and Nickel-Belt are NDP. Nipissing is PC. Only TBay-Atikokan, TBay-Superior North, Sault and Sudbury are Liberal. The NDP has half of our ridings now. They'll have more next time.

Originally Posted by Brandon716

Thunder Bay owes itself to voting Liberal at this point, its a smaller city and needs that injection and it'll potentially lose a great deal if Hudak comes to power. There's incentive in the north for voting McGuinty.

Thunder Bay voted Liberal for 15 years before we started getting any "injections" from the government. It wasn't until our MPPs came very close to losing their seats that the government started to really invest in this community. All of the major projects that were done in the early days of the Liberal government (our hospital, university expansion) were left overs from Mike Harris's PCs. The only thing the Liberals have really done in the city is build more highways and consolidate our old age homes.

If Hudak comes to power, we'll face unrest from aboriginals as he opens up the Ring of Fire to almost unrestricted development and the economy starts firing on all cylinders again. Hudak wouldn't have to use government funding to invest in this region to make it grow, but he would have a major crisis with the First Nations community to deal with, and he certainly wouldn't be capable of it. The last PC premier we had was the only one to order the death of an aboriginal person in Canada in the 20th century.

There are a few other things that have damaged the Liberal reputation in this region, the most recent being that when Thunder Bay was severely damaged by heavy flooding in May, the Provincial Government was conspicuously absent from the entire clean-up effort (only the municipal governments, Red Cross and Salvation Army responded) and dragged its feet on declaring the city a disaster area to allow us to access funding. But flooding at Union Station, which was repaired the same day, was responded to immediately. It's been 6 weeks and people are still fuming about this. Our MPPs have been almost entirely absent until three days ago when Mauro gave a government cheque for 1 million dollars to a company that has been vocally supportive of the Liberal government.

[Doady]

The NDP won a riding in Mississauga and Brampton in the last provincial election. They already got elected in suburban 416 in the last federal election as well. So I wouldn't be surprised if the inner suburbs of Toronto (which includes east-central Mississauga and Malton) started to lean NDP eventually.

[Dr Nevergold]

^Politics is always in change, opinions move like the wind over time. The NDP still has a huge hurdle to overcome, and that is the binding of its blue collar union vote tradition with the new urban hipster movement that latched on to neo-NDP politics. Or maybe nouveau-NDP? Well, whatever the NDP is now there's too much new in the new NDP, or do they still call it today's NDP? Today's NDP doesn't really believe in its social roots of trade unionism at all costs, public ownership of banks, and other things. Today's NDP is essentially Liberal and that will cause a split in the party eventually.

[vid]

Today's NDP is an arm of corporate unions trying to buy governance by appealing to the masses with vague ideas that win votes. Just like the Liberals did for 140 years.

[haljackey]

Liberals remain 1 seat shy of a majority.

Such a government is still attainable if a by-election is held in a NDP or PC riding and the Liberals win.

[SteelTown]

Hudak's PC lost a riding well the rest gained a seat.

Guessing there will be internal bickering going on in the PC caucus.

[vid]

Tim Hudak should be replaced. The election was his to lose, and he just lost it a second time.

[urbanfan89]

I came here specially to comment on how pathetic Hudak was to downplay expectations before the by-election, and then how even more pathetic he was to not only not appear in public on election night, but to blame the unions for the NDP win. Maybe Hudak is a Liberal/NDP puppet leader.

[vid]

I think Hudak want's to be the Liberal's deputy leader.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by haljackey

Liberals remain 1 seat shy of a majority.

Such a government is still attainable if a by-election is held in a NDP or PC riding and the Liberals win.

The Liberals are certainly not picking up any NDP seats, I can't see where any good pickup opportunities exist. Thornhill maybe?

No matter what, I have ZERO sympathy for the teachers unions. I would go hardball on them and de-certify them. They are doing nothing but holding kids hostage. If I had my way, I would scrap public schools completely, but that would likely not go well with the public.

[vid]

Scrap them and replace them with what? There is only one private school in Thunder Bay, it has six classrooms and goes up to grade 10.