Winnipeg CMA in 5 years (2026)

[GreyGarden]

I think as you improve quality of life and prosperity, the population growth will only accelerate.

[zalf]

Originally Posted by esquire

I do agree with Hecate's point. Canada is probably concentrating too much growth into too few cities. Although I do realize that population growth tends to follow economic opportunity... I'm not sure what all the people there would do if Thunder Bay suddenly jumped up to 500,000, for example.

"Canada" in the sense of the aggregate decision making of 40 million individuals, sure.

"Canada" in the sense of political leadership doesn't have many levers to make people live in certain places. They can build government offices outside capitals, move military bases, or incentivize certain industries, but that's about the extent of it. People will go where they want, constrained only by affordability/career/social reasons.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by zalf

"Canada" in the sense of the aggregate decision making of 40 million individuals, sure.

"Canada" in the sense of political leadership doesn't have many levers to make people live in certain places. They can build government offices outside capitals, move military bases, or incentivize certain industries, but that's about the extent of it. People will go where they want, constrained only by affordability/career/social reasons.

I don't think it has really been a priority for governments, though.

Take a place like Moose Jaw, for instance. It has pretty good infrastructure (not just road) for a city its size. It has a nice downtown. It has all kinds of community assets. Yet the population is stagnant at under 50,000. It strikes me that a place like that could easily support tens of thousands more people with a high quality of life. So why not make an effort to lure people there (at the federal and provincial levels... I realize the Moose Jaw Chamber of Commerce is already doing everything it can) instead of cramming in more and more people into depressing apartment towers in Scarborough or whatever?

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by Hecate

So if what you say is true about increasing tax base, why are our roads shittier than they’ve ever been.

The "tax base" has increased, but the rate at which it has been taxed has only kept up with regular old CPI inflation. Construction costs (i.e., infrastructure costs) increase at a rate more than inflation. And so does the cost of Police and Fire thanks to their strong unions.

According to audited financial statements, in 1998 Winnipeg brought in $384 million in property taxes across 628,400 citizens, which equates to $610 in taxes per person. In 2021, Winnipeg brought in $650 million in property taxes across 772,935 citizens which equates to $840 per person. So a net increase of $230 in per capita taxes over 23 years. Not bad, right?

Well CPI over the same time period showed a 54% increase in prices. So when we adjust the 1998 value for inflation to bring it to 2021 dollars, we get per-capita taxation of $942 in 1998, versus $840 per-capita in 2021, which is a decrease of $102 per person in real dollar terms.

So yeah, the tax base has grown thanks to population and employment growth, but our elected officials have actively chosen to reduce taxes in real terms, resulting in less tax dollars to spend on a per-capita basis.

Yes, it is true other sources of revenue have risen faster. Namely government grants to the city and utility fees. But the City doesn't control how much grants it gets, and utility fees are more-or-less locked in to use for utility projects like the North End treatment plant and combined sewer replacement.

So it's no wonder community centres are falling apart and transportation solutions involve adding more red lights to already slow-moving road networks.

As for roads - and I know this isn't the road forum - we spend RECORD amounts on roads today. Like $130 million, per year, to fill potholes and repave roads and rebuild old roads. In the early 2000s, this value was closer to $30 million. The problem is perception. We have MANY MANY sections of rebuilt and repaired roads in good condition across the City, but all it takes is one or two bad potholes in a city with a brutal freeze-thaw cycle on a road that has yet to be fixed, and citizens will say all our roads are in the worst condition ever. It's a never ending battle versus the weather and budget constraints that we will never win. Construction industry capacity is also an issue. We can't just increase the pothole budget to $200 million and fix more roads, we are likely very close to capacity in terms of labour and capital in the local construction industry already, so we are fixing as much roads as physically possible right now.

So basically, taxes haven't kept up with inflation and growth, and what tax reserves have grown are dedicated to filling potholes not actually adding new assets or improving traffic flow.

[BlackDog204]

If anyone is observing the population clock of Statistics Canada, the nation will hit 39.8 million people around 6 PM eastern time.

According to the clock, Canada increases it's population by roughly 3,200 per day. At this rate, Canada will hit 40 million by June 15, 2023.

source:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

[BlackDog204]

What to expect from tonights game?

Rittich will play in net, well Helle gets a much needed rest, prior to the playoffs.

Ehlers and PLD may not play. This could be due to being banged up, and PLD is expected to play Game 1. Ehlers is still a question mark. Morrissey, Wheeler, Scheifele, and Schmidt may take the night off to rest for the playoffs. Dominic Toninato and possibly others will be recalled from the AHL Moose.

Considering the Avalanche will be playing all their stars, in hopes of clinching the Central Division title, expect a Colorado blowout.

source: Ken Wiebe, Winnipeg Sun.

[BlackDog204]

Prediction for the estimates in 2023:

Winnipeg- 892,800

I based this upon the fact that Canada should eclipse 40 million residents by June. Also roughly 3.6% of Canadians are from Manitoba.

Roughly 62% of residents of Manitoba are from the Winnipeg CMA.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by thurmas

looking at the link the darkest days for Winnipeg was 1976-1981 when everyone was moving to Edmonton and Calgary in the 70s oil boom there and then the lost years 1991 to 2007 where Winnipeg did not really grow at all. Had Winnipeg been able to grow just at its average rate of around 1.1 to 1.4% per year in those lost years the city would likely have 100 to 125k more people right now.

The darkest days for Winnipeg were 1995-99. We actually lost people in 1996 and 1997 in the CMA. For the 90s, we only gained 19,000 people. The reason Winnipeg slowed down in growth from 2004-08, was due to the Alberta oil boom. Once it was over, Winnipeg started to gain roughly 10,000 people annually.

[BAKGUY]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Prediction for the estimates in 2023:

Winnipeg- 892,800

I based this upon the fact that Canada should eclipse 40 million residents by June. Also roughly 3.6% of Canadians are from Manitoba.

Roughly 62% of residents of Manitoba are from the Winnipeg CMA.

Based on your calculations, which I agree is 0.62 for Winnipeg . . . We are almost there now.https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm
Population clock has Manitoba @ 3 am today @ 1,436,342 people x .62 = Metro Winnipeg...... = 890,532 inhabitants as of today..By June 2026 census time, 38 months to go, with strong immigration.....we will have long surpassed 900, 000? Perhaps 920,000? 925,000? 930,000? Or more?
Many think hitting the million mark is no big deal, but it is.
It is like bragging rights & it wrong or right, gets a bit more respect.
That benchmark arouses interest in some to consider doing business here or even causing a tourist who prefers a large city to consider a visit.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by BAKGUY

Based on your calculations, which I agree is 0.62 for Winnipeg . . . We are almost there now.https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm
Population clock has Manitoba @ 3 am today @ 1,436,342 people x .62 = Metro Winnipeg...... = 890,532 inhabitants as of today..By June 2026 census time, 38 months to go, with strong immigration.....we will have long surpassed 900, 000? Perhaps 920,000? 925,000? 930,000? Or more?
Many think hitting the million mark is no big deal, but it is.
It is like bragging rights & it wrong or right, gets a bit more respect.
That benchmark arouses interest in some to consider doing business here or even causing a tourist who prefers a large city to consider a visit.

It would be awesome to beat Hamilton and Quebec City to the finish line, when it comes to having 1,000,000 people.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

It would be awesome to beat Hamilton and Quebec City to the finish line, when it comes to having 1,000,000 people.

Do we get to have a parade?

Honestly though, the City's unwillingness/inability (take your pick) to build new infrastructure to keep pace with population growth makes me wonder if we would be better off slowing it down from a quality of life perspective.

I mean, what did we add in terms of roads and transit when jumping from 600,000 to 800,000? The blue line? CentrePort Canada Way? Chief Peguis Extension? Not much, really. Same thing for other types of infrastructure.

[BlackDog204]

The population of Canada will hit 40,000,000 people around Friday afternoon.

[3de14eec6a]

I won't be participating in this hitting of people.

Seriously though, that's wild. I thought we were still around 36M

[rkspec]

its crazy knowing that the population of Canada can fit into the state of California.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by rkspec

its crazy knowing that the population of Canada can fit into the state of California.

As of July 2022, Canada has over one million more people than California. Canada has gained over one million people in the past year, while California has lost over 500,000 people since COVID.

The last time Canada had more people than California was in the 1970s.

[BlackDog204]

The population of the Winnipeg CMA (according to the Statistics Canada population clock) is now at 900,000 people.


As of today, the population of Manitoba is approximately 1,455,000

61.9% of residents of the province live in the Winnipeg CMA


1,451,000 x 0.619 = 900,684

[esquire]

It feels like we went from 750K to 900K almost overnight. And that's great, but man, at some point we are going to have to start improving infrastructure given that we've pretty well added Thunder Bay to our metro area with very little significant expansion to roads, transit, parks, libraries, recreation centres, fire/paramedics, etc. Nice to see that the most basic things like water and waste is getting attention but there is a lot of other stuff that needs to be done.

[thurmas]

Originally Posted by esquire

It feels like we went from 750K to 900K almost overnight. And that's great, but man, at some point we are going to have to start improving infrastructure given that we've pretty well added Thunder Bay to our metro area with very little significant expansion to roads, transit, parks, libraries, recreation centres, fire/paramedics, etc. Nice to see that the most basic things like water and waste is getting attention but there is a lot of other stuff that needs to be done.

Agreed bishop and kenaston continue to burst at the seams and because of the massive amounts of issues in the core all the people flooding in are mostly settling in south winnipeg which is so poorly equipped to handle this many newcomers at once.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Agreed bishop and kenaston continue to burst at the seams and because of the massive amounts of issues in the core all the people flooding in are mostly settling in south winnipeg which is so poorly equipped to handle this many newcomers at once.

Everytime this subject comes up we always hear about induced traffic, etc. but the reality is that the SW/SE corners of the city have added large amounts of residents with very little road/transit capacity to show for it. I don't think Kenaston widening is really a frill. At this point I'd say adding lanes to Kenaston, Bishop Grandin, Lagimodiere are a must. I realize interchanges are an unrealistic dream for Winnipeg but maybe start adding road capacity because many roads are becoming increasingly choked day in, day out.

There are some parts of Winnipeg that are still faring quite well in this regard. If your main commuting route is a street that was widened decades ago like Portage or Main it's not so bad. I could see areas like West K or Westwood becoming increasingly popular in the years ahead.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by esquire

Everytime this subject comes up we always hear about induced traffic, etc. but the reality is that the SW/SE corners of the city have added large amounts of residents with very little road/transit capacity to show for it. I don't think Kenaston widening is really a frill. At this point I'd say adding lanes to Kenaston, Bishop Grandin, Lagimodiere are a must. I realize interchanges are an unrealistic dream for Winnipeg but maybe start adding road capacity because many roads are becoming increasingly choked day in, day out.

There are some parts of Winnipeg that are still faring quite well in this regard. If your main commuting route is a street that was widened decades ago like Portage or Main it's not so bad. I could see areas like West K or Westwood becoming increasingly popular in the years ahead.

Well that’s until Portage and Main undergo road diets with the supposedly planned BRT that will run Centre median for significant stretches of the road. It’ll happen any day now I’m sure of it…

Is driving in traffic really that fun for all of you? I guess if you have an M series or Ram and their respective driving habits traffic isn’t really part of the equation, but I doubt that’s the case for most commuters.

I’m on the Go Train right now and let me say the convenience of not having to deal with traffic cruising 150 km/h right to the city centre is a lot of fun and really safe. Rail Transit or BRT going at 80-100km/h on Kenaston, Bishop, Lag, Chief Peguis connecting the major malls to each other would make living in Winnipeg much more bearable.