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  #321  
Old Posted Jul 9, 2023, 8:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Canada is the world's 10th largest auto market and that is a market that no automaker would want to write-off.

Certainly any battery manufacturer can buy the batteries from other suppliers {ie VW} but again that should have a threshold put on it. Subaru/Mits/MB can justifiably say that the market is too small for the limited number of cars they sell and hence could buy VW/Stellantis batteries but Nissan & Hyundai cannot claim the same. If Honda & Toyota can have plants in Canada, so can they.
It's not about the Canadian market. Canada has produced far more vehicles than required to meet domestic demand for a long time.

It's about maintaining the industry as a key sector in the economies of Ontario and the nation.

Whether it should continue to be a key sector is one debate, but the fact it remains an important thing is part of the politics behind the deals.
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  #322  
Old Posted Jul 10, 2023, 10:23 PM
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Canada should be demanding that all major automakers have some form of domestic production in Canada whether that be assembly or batteries.
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  #323  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 2:29 PM
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Bank hiked interest rates to 5%.

Trudeau's economic murder/suicide is going according to plan.
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  #324  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 2:39 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Bank hiked interest rates to 5%.

Trudeau's economic murder/suicide is going according to plan.
It amuses me that 'ordinary-to-good interest rates of 1945-2000' are now termed economic suicide.

Mostly it speaks to how anemic economic growth has been in real terms in the last 20 years. What will we do if we can't ladle on debt as if it'll never have to be carried? How will we grow if we can't just borrow unto infinity?
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  #325  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 2:43 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Bank hiked interest rates to 5%.
Going to make the housing situation way more sporty when more people who can't afford their mortgages get added to an already stretched rental market.
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  #326  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 3:39 PM
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Going to make the housing situation way more sporty when more people who can't afford their mortgages get added to an already stretched rental market.
Exactly.

I’m not complaining, but I’m puzzled that the BoC seems to think that right now, housing is still too affordable in Canada and something has to be done to make it less affordable than it currently is.

Housing affordability seems (to me) to be a bigger issue than inflation at this point in time, but the BoC obviously disagrees.
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  #327  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 3:44 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Exactly.

I’m not complaining, but I’m puzzled that the BoC seems to think that right now, housing is still too affordable in Canada and something has to be done to make it less affordable than it currently is.
The BoC doesn't care about asset prices. I don't think the onus should be on them to let inflation in every other segment of the economy run rampant out of fear for rental costs taking on a disproportionately higher amount of CPI. It's not the BoC that is asleep at the wheel.
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  #328  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 4:01 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Bank hiked interest rates to 5%.

Trudeau's economic murder/suicide is going according to plan.
But like Cuba or Venezuela, if things go downhill (more) here we can still say that we are better than the USA because health care.

It looks like US GDP per capita is about $80,000 now while Canada has fallen to just under $53,000 (USD). We are about halfway between the US and Poland now.
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  #329  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 4:20 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Exactly.

I’m not complaining, but I’m puzzled that the BoC seems to think that right now, housing is still too affordable in Canada and something has to be done to make it less affordable than it currently is.

Housing affordability seems (to me) to be a bigger issue than inflation at this point in time, but the BoC obviously disagrees.
It's the only tool at their disposal. As long as the feds keep insisting on an inflationary monetary policy and an inflationary immigration policy then the housing sector is collateral damager.

People don't seem to understand that the era of low interest rates were a result of Chretien/Martin/Harper policies that allowed for low interest rates.
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  #330  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:17 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Exactly.

I’m not complaining, but I’m puzzled that the BoC seems to think that right now, housing is still too affordable in Canada and something has to be done to make it less affordable than it currently is.

Housing affordability seems (to me) to be a bigger issue than inflation at this point in time, but the BoC obviously disagrees.
BoC only cares about inflation. Housing, unemployment, etc. is all irrelevant to them. They have one tool, and that's interest rates.
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  #331  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:19 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
It's the only tool at their disposal. As long as the feds keep insisting on an inflationary monetary policy and an inflationary immigration policy then the housing sector is collateral damager.

People don't seem to understand that the era of low interest rates were a result of Chretien/Martin/Harper policies that allowed for low interest rates.
I'm pretty sure Trudeau was PM for 7 years of low interest rates too. Interesting that you don't include him.
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  #332  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:27 PM
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I'm pretty sure Trudeau was PM for 7 years of low interest rates too. Interesting that you don't include him.
I'm pretty sure he didn't include him for the exact same reason he's not pegging Chrétien as a "high interest rate PM" despite rates having been pretty damn high -- especially by current standards -- in the early and mid 1990s.

It takes a while for a government's policies to show their effects. Years of lag is perfectly normal.
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  #333  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:32 PM
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The JT government run has been mostly non-catastrophic, like mostly peaceful gatherings where only a few people out of thousands get shot, mostly good drivers that only careen off the road in heavy rain, etc.

It is normal to judge governments by how they perform under pressure during more difficult periods, and to expect them to do perform adequately all the time, not some of the time.

I'm not sure there is a precedent in the modern era in Canada for the level of fiscal management of the past 3 years. I would argue that even before the +16% debt-to-GDP of 2020-2021, the federal government was not prudent in the comparatively good years and so they created an environment where they had less wiggle room during bad years. The Harper government had flat debt-to-GDP from 2006-2015 and they had the global financial crisis in the middle of that. During the Chrétien and Martin years the debt was paid down considerably. It is hard to accuse people of being partisan when they praise Paul Martin but don't think the Justin Trudeau era has gone well as of 2023. If they just want good fiscal management regardless of party that's the definition of non-partisan, while we have some turbo partisans on here who love the Liberals no matter what happens.
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  #334  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:35 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
People don't seem to understand that the era of low interest rates were a result of Chretien/Martin/Harper policies that allowed for low interest rates.
I suspect larger global macroeconomic forces were at play rather than any small-time political Canadian processes regarding the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions then.

Likewise, Justin Trudeau doesn't wear these interest rate increases very much IMO.

The point of central banks is to divorce monetary stability from political processes, because political interference in monetary stability is generally a bad thing.
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  #335  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:41 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
I'm pretty sure Trudeau was PM for 7 years of low interest rates too. Interesting that you don't include him.
True, but he didn't get into driving up inflation until 2019.

In 2018 immigration was about 300k and the deficit was 0.6% of GDP.
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  #336  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:42 PM
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The point of central banks is to divorce monetary stability from political processes, because political interference in monetary stability is generally a bad thing.
You should tell Tiff Macklem this. He specifically pointed out in the presser that population growth is driving inflation.....
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  #337  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:43 PM
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Originally Posted by thewave46 View Post
I suspect larger global macroeconomic forces were at play rather than any small-time political Canadian processes regarding the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions then.

Likewise, Justin Trudeau doesn't wear these interest rate increases very much IMO.

The point of central banks is to divorce monetary stability from political processes, because political interference in monetary stability is generally a bad thing.
But if monetary policy and fiscal policy are pulling in the opposite direction you get this. If Trudeau would cut spending and immigration to 2018 levels the bank wouldn't be under as much pressure to raise rates.
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  #338  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:47 PM
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And what really hurts most people is that Canada has not seen wages keep up with inflation.
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  #339  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 5:58 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
True, but he didn't get into driving up inflation until 2019.

In 2018 immigration was about 300k and the deficit was 0.6% of GDP.
Was there inflation in 2019? I don't recall anything much until post-COVID.
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  #340  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2023, 6:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
You should tell Tiff Macklem this. He specifically pointed out in the presser that population growth is driving inflation.....
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
But if monetary policy and fiscal policy are pulling in the opposite direction you get this. If Trudeau would cut spending and immigration to 2018 levels the bank wouldn't be under as much pressure to raise rates.
Sure.

Central banks and governments can work against each other, because each has a different goal.

The goal of the Bank of Canada is monetary stability.

The goal of the current federal government is to keep the good times (see: housing market) going forever upwards, because it all coming apart will be politically disastrous.

We shall see how this comes apart. It already is, but there's a lot of not-acknowledging it right now. Call it the ostrich effect.
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