Provincial Election

[BlueJay]

nice to finally see a change in this riding.

[1overcosc]

PCs have won Ottawa West-Nepean with a record low 32.82% of the vote. I believe this is the first time ever in Ottawa history that an MPP has won with less than a third.

I am relieved that we squeaked at least another government seat in Ottawa, this should improve our lot in the new government.

[BlueJay]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Interestingly enough, at this point, both the Liberal and NDP caucuses are majority female.

interstingly enough, the people of Ontario just want to be heard and represented well regardless of gender.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by BlueJay

interstingly enough, the people of Ontario just want to be heard and represented well regardless of gender.

It is a historic first for the majority of opposition MPPs to be female. Even if you don't agree that it's important, it's still statistically interesting.

[1overcosc]

This protects Phase 2 very well, IMO. The PCs have won just enough seats in Ottawa, and have just enough seats within reach, that the city should be electorally important enough that Ford won't want to piss us off too easily. And if the budget is cut, the exclusively west-end nature of the Ottawa government caucus means that the most vital part of Phase 2 (Tunney's-Lincoln Fields) will likely remain even if the province cuts its funding entirely.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

This protects Phase 2 very well, IMO. The PCs have won just enough seats in Ottawa, and have just enough seats within reach, that the city should be electorally important enough that Ford won't want to piss us off too easily. And if the budget is cut, the exclusively west-end nature of the Ottawa government caucus means that the most vital part of Phase 2 (Tunney's-Lincoln Fields) will likely remain even if the province cuts its funding entirely.

I don't believe anything that the PCs said in the campaign. Anything that involves new spending committed to by the Liberals is vulnerable.

The PC promise for two way GO service to Niagara Falls is the PC version of the Liberal promise for London high speed rail. It will drag on for years and years. A good way to not spend is to drag on process forever. Expect that to happen with most or all transit projects that have not begun construction.

Let's face it, the province is broke especially when tax cuts to the wealthy are a priority.

[ars]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I don't believe anything that the PCs said in the campaign. Anything that involves new spending committed to by the Liberals is vulnerable.

The PC promise for two way GO service to Niagara Falls is the PC version of the Liberal promise for London high speed rail. It will drag on for years and years. A good way to not spend is to drag on process forever. Expect that to happen with most or all transit projects that have not begun construction.

Let's face it, the province is broke especially when tax cuts to the wealthy are a priority.

I agree

I'm not expecting anything of value from this PC government and I don't trust anything that comes out of Doug Ford's mouth. I wouldn't even be half surprised to see them pull the provincial funding for phase 2 LRT some time during the next 4 years.

[1overcosc]

Just took a look at the Ottawa results, and here's something interesting.

In Ottawa, the PC party's share of the popular vote actually fell from 2014, with the PCs performing worse than their 2014 results in 6 out of 8 ridings:

Carleton: 51.33%, down from 53.09% in 2014 (-1.76pp)
Kanata-Carleton: 43.59, down from 45.59% in 2014 (-2.00pp)
Ottawa Centre: 16.05%, down from 18.18% in 2014 (-2.13pp)
Ottawa South: 29.22%, down from 32.11% in 2014 (-2.89pp)
Ottawa-Vanier: 21.38%, down from 23.02% in 2014 (-1.64pp)
Ottawa West-Nepean: 32.82%, down from 33.89% in 2014 (-1.07pp); this one was actually a PC gain in spite of this vote drop.

and the two exceptions:
Nepean: 45.20%, up from 43.23% in 2014 (+1.97pp)
Orleans: 35.20%, up from 33.44% in 2014 (+1.76pp)

(all 2014 %s are redistributed results onto current ridings).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ars

I agree

I'm not expecting anything of value from this PC government and I don't trust anything that comes out of Doug Ford's mouth. I wouldn't even be half surprised to see them pull the provincial funding for phase 2 LRT some time during the next 4 years.

I think this is maybe even 50-50 and it could come fast. I think the West Ottawa ridings will understand if the expansion is shelved as part of a general cut back that leads to a middle class tax cut.

[1overcosc]

Actually that cut in the second tax bracket is one of the promises I'm most expecting Ford to break. It's expensive and actually doesn't make much of a noticeable difference in people's net incomes (provincial income taxes already being pretty low for both the lower and middle classes). Furthermore, he explicitly stated it wasn't coming until year 4; meaning plenty of time to decide "oh shit, we can't afford this..." along the way. Or perhaps, more accurately, to say in 2019 or 2020 that it won't happen, then in 2022 just before the next election announce that "hey, things are looking better", budget it for 2023 and tie the cut to his re-election.

[Marshsparrow]

But when do I get $1 beer, 12.5 gas tax cut and my 20% income tax cut - you mean the Dougster isn't going to deliver on those promises? I was duped? I'll have to now read their platform to see what it really said - can't find it.

Any of the elected Ottawa PCs up on charges?

Less than 60% of Ontarians voted and the PCs received 40% of the vote yet get to govern with an absolute majority - that is the saddest part of this event yet.

[Paul29]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Less than 60% of Ontarians voted and the PCs received 40% of the vote yet get to govern with an absolute majority - that is the saddest part of this event yet.

I've stopped complaining about this. When the conservatives win and proportional representation is brought up, we're just sore losers and can't accept the fact our party lost.

When the cons lose and it's brought up and I wholeheartedly agree the system is flawed, nobody hears me. Damned if you do damned if you don't......

[Marshsparrow]

Yes... sorry - very sore loser this morning - the rules of the game were clear at the outset and the 60% of people that voted for a progressive option will just have to sit back and let the shit show unfold.

[Paul29]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

very sore loser this morning

So is most of the province (me as much as anyone) yet the idiot won anyway..... Two years ago the world laughed at the U.S.

Today they laugh at us.

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Interestingly enough, at this point, both the Liberal and NDP caucuses are majority female.

This is an abomination.

I thought women were seeking equality and equal representation. There should be *immediate* resignations and replacement with males in the name of gender equality.

[TransitZilla]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The debt to GDP ratio is not going down (it did for a brief time ending last FY).

https://www.ofina.on.ca/borrowing_debt/debt.htm


We are currently in the middle of a global economic boom, unemployment is at a record low, exports are at a record high and we still managed to add 17B to the net debt this FY. During the last recession and its aftermath debt to GDP went from 26% of GDP to 39 percent. If we don't make substantial improvements in the debt to GDP ratio during the good years then we are in trouble during the next recession.

I think it was a major strategic mistake for the Liberals to abandon their plan of balanced budget and head back to deficits with the last budget.

Maybe they were doomed anyway, but at least then there would have been one party with a credible balanced budget plan.

[eltodesukane]

From Ottawa Sun (2018-jun-06) http://ottawasun.com/opinion/columni...f-6a62b76b90af

Ontario will still be one of the world’s most indebted non-national governments, the Liberals having hiked public debt to $325 billion in 2018, 134% higher than the $138.8 billion they inherited from the previous PC government in 2003.

All the numbers are bad and getting worse. Government spending at $158.5 billion this year, is up 114% since 2003.

The debt-to-GDP ratio, a key indicator of Ontario’s economic health (the lower, the better), is at 37.6% and rising, a 38% increase since 2003.

Paying interest on debt, which does not lower the debt by a penny, now costs Ontario taxpayers $12.5 billion annually, up 30% from 2003.

As for annual provincial deficits, Ontario’s auditor general says that last year Wynne really had a $4 billion deficit, despite her boast of a $642-million surplus.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

This is an abomination.

I thought women were seeking equality and equal representation. There should be *immediate* resignations and replacement with males in the name of gender equality.

After Kiiwetinoong the NDP hit exact parity.. 20 men and 20 women. Thats a first I think.

The entirety of the opposition is gender parity as well.. 24 men (20 NDP, 3 Liberal, 1 green) and 24 women (20 NDP, 4 Liberal).

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by bradnixon

I think it was a major strategic mistake for the Liberals to abandon their plan of balanced budget and head back to deficits with the last budget.

Maybe they were doomed anyway, but at least then there would have been one party with a credible balanced budget plan.

I totally agree. Their 2014 platform was fine, it won them a majority and then they inexplicably abandoned it. They still may have lost the election (15 years is a long time to govern) but they still would have likely finished a strong second.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Yes... sorry - very sore loser this morning - the rules of the game were clear at the outset and the 60% of people that voted for a progressive option will just have to sit back and let the shit show unfold.

It has been clear for several weeks that a vote for the Liberals or Greens (outside of a few specific areas) was a vote for Ford. I interpret it as two-thirds wanting a Ford victory.