The US Census Bureau thread

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

here is some digested and interesting census results news for cleveland:



Cleveland: growing faster than the national average, and shrinking

By Ken Prendergast / September 1, 2021



In the simpler days of Census data, population numbers for a given metro area either went up or down in lockstep with that region’s economic output. There were few wrinkles in the data to pull apart and analyze. Now, there’s tons of data to grapple with, offering multiple story lines.

...

After a hiatus in 2020, downtown was back in power in 2021, accounting for one-third of all apartment demand in Greater Cleveland.


more:
https://neo-trans.blog/2021/09/01/cl...and-shrinking/



Cleveland’s “best of times and worst of times” is evident in this map showing population change in each Census tract during the 2010s.
Cleveland accounted for the fastest growing and some of the fastest declining Census tracts (Cuyahoga County GIS).

Seems similar to Chicago? Poorer black neighborhoods emptying, downtown/near downtown areas getting new (usually more affluent and white) residents and developments...Maybe Hispanics and possibly Asians moving into a few neighborhoods as well...

[SlidellWx]

Some great data on the changes in New Orleans over the past decade from the local agency http://www.datacenterresearch.org

The city has become more demographically diverse over the past decade with increases in the White, Hispanic, and Multi-racial populations. The Black population barely changed over the same period of time, but is still the majority demographic in the city at around 53.6% of the population.

It will be interesting to see if these trends continue into this decade.

Here are some maps and graphics from the aforementioned agency.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SlidellWx

Some great data on the changes in New Orleans over the past decade from the local agency http://www.datacenterresearch.org

The city has become more demographically diverse over the past decade with increases in the White, Hispanic, and Multi-racial populations. The Black population barely changed over the same period of time, but is still the majority demographic in the city at around 53.6% of the population.

It will be interesting to see if these trends continue into this decade.

Here are some maps and graphics from the aforementioned agency.

The change in population by neighborhood is not what I would have expected at all, given mostly white neighborhoods seem to have declined, while black neighborhoods increased. But New Orleans was likely dealing with a unique situation with the continued population recovery from Katrina this decade.

[The North One]

Census undercounted Detroit neighborhoods by as much as 8.1% in 2020, researchers say

Detroit's population was likely undercounted by 8.1% in certain neighborhoods during the 2020 Census, new research from the University of Michigan and Wayne State University showed, a problem that has ramifications for how much funding the city can get in certain federal programs.

If that pattern holds true across the city, researchers say, the population could have been undercounted by "tens of thousands" of people.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ay/8923819002/

[edale]

Originally Posted by The North One

Census undercounted Detroit neighborhoods by as much as 8.1% in 2020, researchers say



https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ay/8923819002/

Did anyone challenge the validity of NYC's results since they were so much higher than the 2019 estimate? Seems like census results are only called into question when people don't like the numbers.

It wouldn't surprise me if there was a bit of an undercount in Detroit. When over half of the city's residents can't be bothered to fill out the census themselves and you have to rely on door knocking and what not...yeah, probably not going to get the best results. But I doubt this was some nefarious plot to undercount Detroit, and I doubt the overall miscount is substantial.

Cincinnati has challenged census results in the past, and it didn't result in the good news revision the city was hoping for. The city challenged the 2005 estimates and got those numbers revised upward, only to find that the 2010 census basically confirmed that initial estimates were correct. Launching a census challenge is largely a waste of time, and Detroit should focus its attention and resources on more productive things.

[Steely Dan]

detroit might very well have been undercounted.

i suspect many (most?) big messy US cities with large areas of high poverty probably are.

but this line from the article was pretty damn silly:

Luke Shaefer, professor of public policy at UM and director of the university's Poverty Solutions initiative, noted that 2019 Census estimates put the city at roughly 670,000 people. Such a decline was "anomalous and implausible," according to the report.

if Mr. Shaefer thinks a drop of 30,000 people from census estimate to census count is "anomalous and implausible", then i would love to hear what he thought of chicago's 2010 census result which came in ~155,000 people lower than the CB's 2009 estimate.

the fact is, the CB has a pretty horrible track record of accurately estimating the populations of rustbelt cities, especially when they're 9 years out from the last official count. these kinds discrepancies are hardly "anomalous" at all. people who put any faith at all into 9 years stale census estimates are grossly misguided.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

if Mr. Shaefer thinks a drop of 30,000 people from census estimate to census count is "anomalous and implausible", then i would love to hear what he thought of chicago's 2010 census result which came in ~155,000 people lower than the CB's 2009 estimate.

the fact is, the CB has a pretty horrible track record of accurately estimating the populations of rustbelt cities, especially when they're 9 years out from the last official count. these kinds discrepancies are hardly "anomalous" at all. people who put any faith at all into 9 years stale census estimates are grossly misguided.

And Detroit's 2009 estimate was about 200,000 over its 2010 census count.

[Steely Dan]

^ damn, you're right.

but now a discrepancy of only 30K is "anomalous and implausible"?

give me a break.

[C.]

Census 2021 population estimates for States has been published today:

Read all about it here: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

[C.]

‘Stunning’: US population grew at slowest pace on record in 2021
COVID pandemic, decreased migration and fewer births among reasons for low population growth, US Census Bureau says.

The population of the United States grew more slowly in 2021 than in any year on record, the US Census Bureau has reported, pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, economic shutdowns, and reductions in migration and births as key factors.

The US population grew by about 393,000 in 2021, an historic low of 0.1 percent, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...record-in-2021


Big losses for NYS. A decline of -319,020 or -1.6% Expecting next year that will be reserved due to people coming back after the worst of the pandemic.

[chimpskibot]

Originally Posted by C.

‘Stunning’: US population grew at slowest pace on record in 2021
COVID pandemic, decreased migration and fewer births among reasons for low population growth, US Census Bureau says.

The population of the United States grew more slowly in 2021 than in any year on record, the US Census Bureau has reported, pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, economic shutdowns, and reductions in migration and births as key factors.

The US population grew by about 393,000 in 2021, an historic low of 0.1 percent, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...record-in-2021


Big losses for NYS. A decline of -319,020 or -1.6% Expecting next year that will be reserved due to people coming back after the worst of the pandemic.

I think it is doubtful the inflows in NYC will stem outflows from upstate and NY metro area. Similar with Chicago. Large cities and their metros are growing, the hinterlands not so much.

[C.]

Originally Posted by chimpskibot

Large cities and their metros are growing, the hinterlands not so much.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by C.

‘Stunning’: US population grew at slowest pace on record in 2021
COVID pandemic, decreased migration and fewer births among reasons for low population growth, US Census Bureau says.

The population of the United States grew more slowly in 2021 than in any year on record, the US Census Bureau has reported, pointing to the coronavirus pandemic, economic shutdowns, and reductions in migration and births as key factors.

The US population grew by about 393,000 in 2021, an historic low of 0.1 percent, according to new estimates released by the Census Bureau on Tuesday.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...record-in-2021


Big losses for NYS. A decline of -319,020 or -1.6% Expecting next year that will be reserved due to people coming back after the worst of the pandemic.

I assume the lack of immigration will hurt a lot of cities that are normally gateways and also normally have net negative domestic migration rates (NYC, LA, Miami). Are there any numbers anywhere on how much immigration dropped?

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by dave8721

I assume the lack of immigration will hurt a lot of cities that are normally gateways and also normally have net negative domestic migration rates (NYC, LA, Miami). Are there any numbers anywhere on how much immigration dropped?

The Census article states: "All 50 states and the District of Columbia saw positive net international migration. Florida (38,590), Texas (27,185) and New York (18,307) had the largest population gains from net international migration."

The numbers seem low for places like NY, and California is not even listed in the top 3. If the numbers are accurate, they would signal a virtual collapse in international migration to the US.

[mhays]

I'm surprised the immigration numbers were so high with the borders severely restricted. My impression was that legal migration would be basically zero but it wasn't.

[tablemtn]

It feels like California has priced itself out of the market to a large degree. The last round of Census estimates put California at a decline of 262,000 people between 2020 and 2021:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

But this has had no actual downward effect on Californian real estate prices or rents, so, the decline will probably continue until those factors change - if they ever do.

[RST500]

2020 Census: In-Depth Analysis of LA’s Demographic Trends:



"The 2020 Census shows that the City of Los Angeles’s population grew by 2.8% from 2010 to 2020, with a population just shy of 4 Million at 3,898,725. Los Angeles County’s population is now at 10,014,009 residents, adding 195,404 people over the past decade. LA’s growth rate is much lower than in previous decades and well below the State’s average of 6.1%. At 2%, Los Angeles County had one of the lowest growth rates of any California county, in contrast with much more densely populated San Francisco County, that grew by 8.5%. It is noted that since the census, the LA Metro’s population actually declined by 67,000 people from July 2020 to July 2021."

https://robertstark.substack.com/p/2...th-analysis-of

[iheartthed]

^So L.A. accounts for more than half of L.A. County's growth? But L.A. is less than 40% of L.A. County's population. That's interesting.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

^So L.A. accounts for more than half of L.A. County's growth? But L.A. is less than 40% of L.A. County's population. That's interesting.

Another data point on how well central cities did this census.

Chicago/Cook County were a very similar split. 51k of the county's 81k gain was Chicago proper.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Another data point on how well central cities did this census.

Chicago/Cook County were a very similar split. 51k of the county's 81k gain was Chicago proper.

And even more surprising to me than chicago's 63% share of cook county's growth last decade was the city's 32% share of the entire MSA's growth (51K out 157K)


Now of course, that's speaks much more to a pretty damn stagnant suburban Chicagoland than it does to the city having some kind amazing growth or anything like that.