The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

I think it comes down to we believe in the free market. But the free market is not producing the outcome we want to we need to change the rules to force the outcome we want.

The free market works just fine when employed effectively. This is exactly what carbon pricing is for. But we put on pricing and people get mad at what the free market is telling them to do.

[Wigs]

I personally don't understand the "well if others aren't doing it I'm not gonna" mentality.

I don't give a crap about the Joneses or Bezos's or Musk's. I think the latter are self indulgent arseholes but it is what it is. We've always had a gilded class, it just seems to be getting worse with $500,000,000 plus yachts, 8 houses, and other toys.

I do my little part. Try to do my laundry after 7pm, turn off lights when leaving a room, recycling as much as I can, using the green bin (do other regions/provinces even have such a thing) for food/organics waste including everything from food scraps incl meat bones, dairy, to egg shells to coffee filters so there's less garbage. The region then turns this organic waste into soil which you can then buy for your garden. The list of acceptable green bin waste is fairly extensive
https://www.niagararegion.ca/waste/c...green-bin.aspx

Using your Green Bin helps reduce the amount of waste sent to landfill.

Most of the waste placed in the garbage stream is organic waste (such as food waste) and should be composted. Using your Green Bin diverts this organic material from the garbage and saves valuable landfill space.

Organic material needs oxygen to properly break down into soil and will not break down in a landfill. Without oxygen, organic material buried in a landfill produces methane gas, which is 20 times worse for the environment than carbon dioxide. Green Bin material is taken to a composting facility and turned into valuable compost in only eight weeks.

I drive a 4 cylinder Camry but would look into a hybrid or EV if I could afford one. I try to consume less, support my local businesses when possible and walk more if possible. Nothing extreme.
If everyone does slight little changes in their lifestyle it adds up to big results when multiplied by 40 Million plus Canadians, or 8 Billion on the planet.

As the young generation says: "You do You"

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

For the record I am ok with the Indian family living in a 600 sq ft apartment having an air conditioner. It is hot in that country.

I would hope India recognizes being dependent on Russia or Saudi Arabia is a risky proposition and they should find both cleaner and lest constrained ways of powering the millions of AC units.

.

But I thought oil is finished and we won't be able to sell what we produce? So where is the constraint as they will be laughing all the way to the bank as they fill their oil powered power plants with nearly free oil. (I don't think they actual use much oil for electricity but it is possible of course to increase substantially)

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

But I thought oil is finished and we won't be able to sell what we produce? So where is the constraint as they will be laughing all the way to the bank as they fill their oil powered power plants with nearly free oil. (I don't think they actual use much oil for electricity but it is possible of course to increase substantially)

What are you on about? Why would they import expensive oil for power generation when they have abundant coal?

And they are electrifying two and three wheelers in South and Southeast Asia at incredible rates (ahead of what anybody predicted). This doesn't sound significant until you look at how much of their transport sector is two and three wheelers. That is what will impact our oil demand. Even our own O&G sector knows this and is trying to sell natural gas as a transition fuel. Oil is probably going to see peak demand confirmed this decade.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by casper

We should lead by example. Do the right thing. Share the data and hopefully others will follow.

Canada has a bad reputation for saying the right thing, doing the opposite. It is odd but many other countries do the same.

Yep, absolutely this. Do the right thing, develop some clean technology here and export it around the world.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

But I thought oil is finished and we won't be able to sell what we produce? So where is the constraint as they will be laughing all the way to the bank as they fill their oil powered power plants with nearly free oil. (I don't think they actual use much oil for electricity but it is possible of course to increase substantially)

The Europeans are moving off oil at an aggressive rate. The Americans are now self sufficient.

Lower cost producers such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran are under embargo limiting world supply. Yet the price is flat (and back to where it was before Russia invaded Ukraine).

Western countries are investing in alternatives.

I suspect your right. Coal and LNG are far more common for large scale electricity production. Oil and diesel are more common in small remote generating stations.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What are you on about? Why would they import expensive oil for power generation when they have abundant coal?

And they are electrifying two and three wheelers in South and Southeast Asia at incredible rates (ahead of what anybody predicted). This doesn't sound significant until you look at how much of their transport sector is two and three wheelers. That is what will impact our oil demand. Even our own O&G sector knows this and is trying to sell natural gas as a transition fuel. Oil is probably going to see peak demand confirmed this decade.

In a huge city like Bangkok or Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon) where the vast majority drive mopeds/scooters, if they quickly electrify those millions of ICE motos the carbon emissions in those inner cities will drop dramatically. They have the opportunity to bypass the worldwide ICE car pollution of major metros by transitioning right into the new electric vehicle economy. (not to dissimilar how these areas bypassed home phone/landlines for cellphones and now smartphones (and tablets) functioning more like handheld computers)

It should also be noted these SE Asia metropolises have ambitious public transit/rail plans as well, even if currently behind many other cities.

[Truenorth00]

This is what is happening in India:

Say the words “electric vehicle” and racy images of Tesla and its boss Elon Musk spring to Western minds. But outside rich countries, especially in India, the two-wheeler is the chariot of the middle classes. More than 70% of all vehicles on Indian roads are two-wheelers, chiefly scooters and motorcycles. Three-wheeled autorickshaws (which foreign tourists insist on calling “tuk-tuks”) make up another 10%. These two categories accounted for 92% of evs registered in India last year.

Their growth is impressive. evs represented 4% of the 16m two-wheelers sold in 2022, up from 1% the previous year, according to Counterpoint, a market research firm. E-rickshaws are spreading much faster. About 40% of the 632,000 three-wheelers sold in 2022 were electric. That is projected to rise to 95% by the end of this decade. Four-wheelers are lagging. Just 1.3% of the 3.8m cars newly registered in India last year were electric, up from 0.5% in 2021. Much of this growth is being driven by consumers in smaller cities, where public transport is poor and two-wheelers rule.
....
Many challenges remain. The high upfront cost of evs, despite the incentives, is a persistent one. Charging infrastructure will have to be built to address range anxiety, particularly for four-wheelers. The e-rickshaw market grew big and fast because an informal manufacturing industry produced vehicles using old-fashioned lead-acid batteries. It needs to be regulated and its technology upgraded.

Yet the payoff looks considerable. Over 85% of India’s crude oil is imported. Petrol alone made up 24% of India’s import bill in 2021-22. By contrast, coal, on which India’s electricity supply depends, is mostly produced domestically. evs should therefore help India cut its goods-import bills and energy dependence. That alone would not address climate change. But it would have major health benefits. Internal combustion engines produce an especially deadly form of pollution, known as pm2.5. One study estimates they contribute 20-35% of these lung-burning particles in the filthy air of Indian cities. And the number of vehicles on the roads is ballooning.
...

https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/...-on-two-wheels

The dream of oil sands fans to sell oil to emerging markets doesn't look like it will pan out the way they imagine.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is what is happening in India:



https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/...-on-two-wheels

The dream of oil sands fans to sell oil to emerging markets doesn't look like it will pan out the way they imagine.

we're on the same wavelength on numerous issues.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

we're on the same wavelength on numerous issues.

I was posting it for the benefit of those who think I'm pulling predictions of peak oil demand out of my ass.

It's pretty clear the markets that these guys dreamed of selling too, are electrifying in ways nobody even imagined 3-5 years ago. And they are doing a lot of it without the latest batteries and motors. Just imagine what they'll be building in these places in 3-5 years.

What a lot of Canadian oil pushers also don't get is that Canadian export wins are a liability to those countries. Importing oil keeps them poor. And their governments are highly motivated to cut imports. So while CNR and Suncor shareholders dream of developing markets growing their dividends, every bureaucrat and economist in those countries is looking at cleantech as a path to energy independence. They don't have the natural inertia (that we do) against these technologies.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is what is happening in India:



https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/...-on-two-wheels

The dream of oil sands fans to sell oil to emerging markets doesn't look like it will pan out the way they imagine.

India's nuclear program was born out of the Canadian program. Their first reactors were collaborations with Canada and its first power reactor was a CANDU. When India refused to sign on to non-proliferation measures Canada ended co-operation.

Since then India independently continued to refine and advance the design to the point where today it has its own domestic design that is very similar to a CANDU but quite unique. Several are under construction or being commissioned.

They are not exclusively just expanding coal. They have other energy sources they are adding to the mix.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I personally don't understand the "well if others aren't doing it I'm not gonna" mentality.

It's not hard to understand: the idea is that if others aren't doing it, then what you do doesn't matter, so why would you impose sacrifices on yourself if it doesn't matter?

It's pretty much the same with Covid: if everyone obeys the rules (curfew, masks, isolation, etc.) then you're obviously a selfish asshole if you're the only one who breaks them, but if everyone does big parties, gathers with friends and relatives, and no one ever wears a mask anywhere even in packed places, it doesn't really matter if YOU abide by all the social distancing and masking rules.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by casper

.

They are not exclusively just expanding coal. They have other energy sources they are adding to the mix.

India's doing way better than China in adding new green energy "Solar and wind dominated India’s power generation capacity growth in 2022, accounting for 92% of total capacity additions. Coal accounted for only 5%." [Ember]

Originally Posted by lio45

It's not hard to understand: the idea is that if others aren't doing it, then what you do doesn't matter, so why would you impose sacrifices on yourself if it doesn't matter?

But it does matter. The planet doesn't care where the extra greenhouse gases come from, whether it's a Chinese coal-fired power station, an Indian diesel truck or a Canadian contractor driving a RAM 1500 TRX getting 12mpg. They all add up and they all impact the changing climate. But if you're a builder in Canada, you can only change one of those sources of additional GHGs. Unless you think the climate's already been totally screwed by humanity to the point that we're all doomed whatever we do.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

It's not hard to understand: the idea is that if others aren't doing it, then what you do doesn't matter, so why would you impose sacrifices on yourself if it doesn't matter?

It's pretty much the same with Covid: if everyone obeys the rules (curfew, masks, isolation, etc.) then you're obviously a selfish asshole if you're the only one who breaks them, but if everyone does big parties, gathers with friends and relatives, and no one ever wears a mask anywhere even in packed places, it doesn't really matter if YOU abide by all the social distancing and masking rules.

I have a completely different mindset than most North Americans. We are mere stewards of our property and environment. Our lives, as we know it, is temporary and fleeting...but you can try to leave the Earth a tiny little better than you (were born into) found it.

You can also make a conscious choice to see the bigger picture outside your own life and help out your fellow humans by volunteering time, labor, or donating money to worthy causes that make a positive impact in your community, country, or the planet itself.

To each their own

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Wigs

...but you can try to leave the Earth a tiny little better than you (were born into) found it.

That's a standard that I know I meet better than most people, my conscience is at ease.

That said, I have close to zero faith in humanity's ability to avoid cooking the planet for misguided short-term gain (regardless of what I personally do), so I'd rather prepare for a warmer future (which I've been doing for at least 15 years now, and counting).

[Truenorth00]

I just wish we could agree to do the stuff that we can agree benefits most of us. Even that stuff is proving controversial. Like high speed rail, better transit and better pedestrian and bicycling infrastructure. For example, the Netherlands spends €1.1B on active transport infrastructure. This would be like all of Canada's government's spending $3.6B on multi-use and bicycling paths. I can't imagine Canada spending that over a decade. Let alone a year.

[someone123]

Canada emits around 1-2% of global GHGs and that's likely to trend toward 0% as the rest of the world develops. Our emissions are about the same now as they were in 2000 when the country had about 30 million inhabitants instead of 40 million. You can see some data here: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

The biggest GHG emitter in Canada is the oil and gas industry (one quarter or so). I wonder what the net change since 2000 is. Statista says Canada's oil production roughly doubled between 2000 and 2022. If this production were halted, presumably some portion would be replaced with production elsewhere.

A non-strawman view is that the future of the planet depends on that curve in the developing world more than what Canada does, and there's likely more low-hanging fruit in the developing world. And Canada actually has been doing a lot of stuff like implementing a carbon tax, unlike most countries.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

That's a standard that I know I meet better than most people, my conscience is at ease.

That said, I have close to zero faith in humanity's ability to avoid cooking the planet for misguided short-term gain (regardless of what I personally do), so I'd rather prepare for a warmer future (which I've been doing for at least 15 years now, and counting).

what have you been doing to prepare for 15 years?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I just wish we could agree to do the stuff that we can agree benefits most of us. Even that stuff is proving controversial. Like high speed rail, better transit and better pedestrian and bicycling infrastructure. For example, the Netherlands spends €1.1B on active transport infrastructure. This would be like all of Canada's government's spending $3.6B on multi-use and bicycling paths. I can't imagine Canada spending that over a decade. Let alone a year.

agreed.
Look at the Line 5 Eglinton or Crosstown Light Rail in Toronto.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_5_Eglinton

It started in 2011. It's now 2023 and won't open until 2024. What happened to Canada (or some parts of it) where we can't seem to complete infrastructure projects in a timely manner? (I hate to see the final cost tally for Line 5 as well)

[DirectionNorth]

Originally Posted by someone123

Canada emits around 1-2% of global GHGs and that's likely to trend toward 0% as the rest of the world develops. Our emissions are about the same now as they were in 2000 when the country had about 30 million inhabitants instead of 40 million. You can see some data here: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

The biggest GHG emitter in Canada is the oil and gas industry (one quarter or so). I wonder what the net change since 2000 is. Statista says Canada's oil production roughly doubled between 2000 and 2022. If this production were halted, presumably some portion would be replaced with production elsewhere.

Every country has some non-zero amount of emissions. If everyone declared that only China and the US had any responsibility for reducing emissions, then nothing would ever get done. Tragedy of the commons.

If/when oil demand stops increasing, shutting down oil sands (a more expensive method of oil production) will not result in oil being produced elsewhere.

Originally Posted by someone123

A non-strawman view is that the future of the planet depends on that curve in the developing world more than what Canada does, and there's likely more low-hanging fruit in the developing world. And Canada actually has been doing a lot of stuff like implementing a carbon tax, unlike most countries.

There's more low-hanging fruit in developed countries - there are more emissions (per capita) to cut. Can't cut emissions that don't exist.