Transit Fantasies

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by RedArbutus

Another factor here justifying the 3rd St. routing is capital acquisition costs for property. Translink already owns the North Shore Transit Centre and I have been saying, since well before Dailyhive announced that Translink was going to pursue development through their Real Estate Development Program, that it would be likely the site of a future Skytrain station 10-20 years from now, given both the recent multi-lateral push for the purple line plus Moodyville development in the last few years. Ironically as a Moodyville resident myself I think that Central Lonsdale (vs Lower) is better suited to integration with a Skytrain network, but IMHO it just seems too unlikely (as more expert voices here have noted) given the empty field of SFH between Phibbs and Central Lonsdale not to mention the incline. Maybe Lions Gate is a point in its favor though?

Incidentally, a quick Google dive finds that Translink settled on their development proposal team for the NVTC build in late July 2023: Francl Architecture, PMY Consulting, MAKE Projects, and Aplin Martin. Wonder how long it will take before we see some of their ideas.

(Long time reader, first time forum poster by the way - have enjoyed perusing everyone's maps! )

Yes that's another point I didn't clarify, for the Purple Line alignment I've provided, I expect usage of the former North Shore Transit Centre for station contruction, as well as the usage of the current Burnaby Transit Centre as a potential OMC. Since the Hamilton Transit Centre has absorbed a bunch of routes and the new Marpole Transit Centre will likely be taking over a lot of other bus routes, the Burnaby Transit Centre can probably be safely downsized to allow for the Purple Line OMC.

Thanks for your input and welcome to the forum!

[jollyburger]

I doubt owning that old bus depot will make a huge influence on their routing. If they go up 3rd it'll be interesting how they deal with the grading there as well.

I wonder if you could use Grand Blvd as the main routing for Lynn Valley traffic instead of Mountain Highway with a dedicated ROW for transit on one side of the Boulevard? And then a station somewhere close to Grand Boulevard while also opening up all the SFH in the area to more redevelopment.

[Migrant_Coconut]

The depot would make some decent TOD, especially with all the new townhomes around it. Did we already find out the FSR?

Originally Posted by jollyburger

... If they go up 3rd it'll be interesting how they deal with the grading there as well.

I'm guessing it'll be a viaduct westbound from Phibbs which eventually disappears into a bored tunnel near High Place Park. No way they try climbing the hill with tunneled or elevated alone, even at 6%.

[jollyburger]

Translink just hired a design team last year so I guess we'll hear something soon. OCP wants it as a mixed-use/commercial hub

A commercial or mixed-use centre of the neighbourhood is designated on the north side of East 3rd Street including frontages on either side of St. David's Avenue and between St. David’s Avenue and Ridgeway Avenue (Figure 2). Since the guidelines are intended for residential use, they do not apply to this subarea. Development in this subarea will create a neighbourhood centre by incorporating ground-level retail opportunities and the potential for office or other commercial uses above. The inclusion of commercial use, shift in the street grid and crossing of St. David's Avenue greenway elevates this intersection along the rapid transit corridor as a neighbourhood centre. Future development is also expected to respond to the continuing use of the BC Hydro substation on East 4th Street.

https://www.cnv.org/business-develop...ntrols-process

[Migrant_Coconut]

2 FSR? Yeah, they're definitely getting that rezoned.

[RedArbutus]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Since the Hamilton Transit Centre has absorbed a bunch of routes and the new Marpole Transit Centre will likely be taking over a lot of other bus routes, the Burnaby Transit Centre can probably be safely downsized to allow for the Purple Line OMC.

Thanks for your input and welcome to the forum!

Interesting! That would be a bit ironic as a capstone to north shore munis pushing Translink for years (ahead of the NVTC closure) to keep a depot somewhere on this side of Burrard Inlet.

Thanks for the welcome

[RedArbutus]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

2 FSR? Yeah, they're definitely getting that rezoned.

Yeah, it's my understanding - and I can't remember where I read this, it was somewhere buried inside council minutes from the mid 2010s - that Innova was granted the variances it received on top of the Moodyville OCP precisely because the real place that CNV wanted their "neighbourhood centre" was, well, years or even decades away from ever becoming a reality. So I imagine the same thing will happen on a bigger scale for this site.

The timing on this must be so complex (at least, for my brain!). Rapidbus is 4 years old. Translink/the Mayors Council wants to upgrade this to BRT ASAP. Simultaneously during the upgrade over the next few years Translink is going to study the feasibility overall of NS skytrain vs keeping BRT. You have to wonder how that design team will take this timeline into account. Will they make proposals in the context of the present status quo, and if so, does Translink hold off developing until a final evaluation is made about NS rapid transit?

I'm not familiar enough with construction to know if this is something that could be shoehorned later. They can build stations all the time that allow for installing future mixed-use on top, but what about the reverse?

[Helvetia]

Originally Posted by RedArbutus

The timing on this must be so complex (at least, for my brain!). Rapidbus is 4 years old. Translink/the Mayors Council wants to upgrade this to BRT ASAP. Simultaneously during the upgrade over the next few years Translink is going to study the feasibility overall of NS skytrain vs keeping BRT. You have to wonder how that design team will take this timeline into account. Will they make proposals in the context of the present status quo, and if so, does Translink hold off developing until a final evaluation is made about NS rapid transit?

Hey, welcome to the forum!

The current trajectory seems to be extending the R2 to Metrotown sometime this decade, with a future SkyTrain replacement post 2030. The mayors of all three munis have been strongly pushing for SkyTrain and I can't see the decision being taken to have BRT instead.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Depends on TransLink's timeline, of course - there's a chance that UBCx sucks up all the Thirties funding, and given the choice between a BRT or nothing until 2040+, BRT sounds like the more appealing choice.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Helvetia

Hey, welcome to the forum!

The current trajectory seems to be extending the R2 to Metrotown sometime this decade, with a future SkyTrain replacement post 2030. The mayors of all three munis have been strongly pushing for SkyTrain and I can't see the decision being taken to have BRT instead.

Yeah despite labelling it as BRT, an extension of the R2 to Metrotown is all that's confirmed in Translink's current plans. Ultimately, full scale BRT makes little sense without widening the roadways for extra bus lanes, for which property acquisition costs would drive up capital costs significantly, and converting existing lanes to BRT lanes somewhere as car dependent as the North Shore is going to require a significant amount of political capital that it would, IMO, be a better use of that political capital to just to push through a full fledged Skytrain at whatever cost.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Depends on TransLink's timeline, of course - there's a chance that UBCx sucks up all the Thirties funding, and given the choice between a BRT or nothing until 2040+, BRT sounds like the more appealing choice.

Sort of dependent on how much the province wants the feds to pony up, and then of course that depends on who is in charge of the feds, with current projections we can expect some funding to dry up. Alternatively, we could just fund most or all of these projects as a province, it will likely mean adjusting funding models (i.e. raising taxes/fares). It also depends on the political capital that the province wants to spend on the North Shore, as Surrey will likely continue to push for investment (rightfully so). Politically, I think a North Shore Skytrain will need to be tied to a Second Narrows bridge replacement to piggy back on relative ease of roadway expansion projects, and the province will need to have a KGB line in the works for Surrey to keep them from trying to disrupt this project a la Derek Corrigan with the Canada Line.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by mcj

Sort of dependent on how much the province wants the feds to pony up, and then of course that depends on who is in charge of the feds, with current projections we can expect some funding to dry up. Alternatively, we could just fund most or all of these projects as a province, it will likely mean adjusting funding models (i.e. raising taxes/fares). It also depends on the political capital that the province wants to spend on the North Shore, as Surrey will likely continue to push for investment (rightfully so). Politically, I think a North Shore Skytrain will need to be tied to a Second Narrows bridge replacement to piggy back on relative ease of roadway expansion projects, and the province will need to have a KGB line in the works for Surrey to keep them from trying to disrupt this project a la Derek Corrigan with the Canada Line.

Surrey is getting the SLS after the Broadway extension. That means we can probably safely get 1-2 Skytrain extensions before they start whining for more (UBCx + Purple Line).

A KGB line is also "in the works" so to speak right now in the form of BRT. With the infrastructure changes required for that, I think that actually slightly pushes forward the timeline for any future KGB Skytrain line.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Surrey is getting the SLS after the Broadway extension. That means we can probably safely get 1-2 Skytrain extensions before they start whining for more (UBCx + Purple Line).

A KGB line is also "in the works" so to speak right now in the form of BRT. With the infrastructure changes required for that, I think that actually slightly pushes forward the timeline for any future KGB Skytrain line.

That's my thoughts as well, that UBCx + Purple Line means that a KGB Skytrain is the next one up after that.

Hopefully the BRT improvements literally pave the way for a Skytrain extension and a lot of that investment is proactive and helps save on future costs.

Only one of the currently in the works BRT lines that should still be a BRT line by 2050 is the Langley/Maple Ridge one. Which also should make anyone planning these question the longevity and reusability of investments made into the North Shore & KGB BRT.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by mcj

That's my thoughts as well, that UBCx + Purple Line means that a KGB Skytrain is the next one up after that.

To be honest I'm interested in seeing what the numbers for the R6 end up looking like, it's possible that a Scott Road Skytrain makes more sense. According to the 2022 bus ridership numbers, the 319 ridership (6.05 million) was almost 50% higher than the R1 ridership (4.13 million).

[mcj]

Originally Posted by chowhou

To be honest I'm interested in seeing what the numbers for the R6 end up looking like, it's possible that a Scott Road Skytrain makes more sense. According to the 2022 bus ridership numbers, the 319 ridership (6.05 million) was almost 50% higher than the R1 ridership (4.13 million).

Don't forget that the R1 has 4 routes as overlays, 2 on 104 Ave and 2 on KGB, so it's not really an apples to apples comparison, it will be interesting to see in 2025 what the R6 ridership looks like for 2024. BUT, the 321 has 2.6 million riders in 2022, with the express 394 having an additional 0.2 million on top of that (and had the best ridership recovery of any route in the region as per the article you linked to) and those are just the KGB overlay routes.

Ultimately in the world of fantasy transit, having higher tier transit on both corridors pencils out, and long term after Fraser Highway and KGB, Scott Road seems to be the obvious choice for a third rapid transit corridor in Surrey.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Trifurcating the Expo as planned (Production Way, Langley, and now Newton) is already a dicey move - no way in hell they quadrifurcate it for Scott Road. You'd need a separate stub line for either Scott or KGB (the other getting the Expo branch), and TransLink seems to be allergic to those.

Still mostly convinced that the R6's ridership is mainly going to be Strawberry Hill to Newton. Maybe extend the Newton SkyTrain westward?

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Trifurcating the Expo as planned (Production Way, Langley, and now Newton) is already a dicey move - no way in hell they quadrifurcate it for Scott Road. You'd need a separate stub line for either Scott or KGB (the other getting the Expo branch), and TransLink seems to be allergic to those.

Still mostly convinced that the R6's ridership is mainly going to be Strawberry Hill to Newton. Maybe extend the Newton SkyTrain westward?

I think the previous dabbling with the Surrey LRT shows that Translink is willing to explore a rapid transit system for Surrey that's functionally distinct from the Expo Line, so we would and should see that for the KGB line, even though I do think the UTDC developed technology is still some of the best tech out there for medium capacity automated LRTs.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by chowhou

To be honest I'm interested in seeing what the numbers for the R6 end up looking like, it's possible that a Scott Road Skytrain makes more sense.

The problem with that is where does a Scott Road Skytrain connect up with the Expo Line. They limit Skytrain to a 6% grade and Scott Road hill kills that. Unless you think they're going to have the line in a tunnel (highly unlikely) it would have to turn to the east and join up with a future King George Skytrain.

Honestly I think Scott Road is likely to stay BRT and King George will get Skytrain simply due to geography. That's even before you consider that Surrey has been busy approving towers while N Delta (where I grew up) is only allowing towers on Scott Road and wants to keep the rest of the area as SFH.

[GMD]

Originally Posted by Sheba

The problem with that is where does a Scott Road Skytrain connect up with the Expo Line. They limit Skytrain to a 6% grade and Scott Road hill kills that. Unless you think they're going to have the line in a tunnel (highly unlikely) it would have to turn to the east and join up with a future King George Skytrain.

Honestly I think Scott Road is likely to stay BRT and King George will get Skytrain simply due to geography. That's even before you consider that Surrey has been busy approving towers while N Delta (where I grew up) is only allowing towers on Scott Road and wants to keep the rest of the area as SFH.

Yes, as you say, King George needs to go first as Skytrain simply due to how central it is, geographically, it is the logical first choice.

Connecting up to Expo line from Scott Road wouldn't be the big blocker in my opinion though. Either go down 96th to Surrey Central or do the same as Evergreen Line and use a tunnel to lessen the grade down to Scott Road station (or both - this is the fantasy thread after all)

[mcj]

Originally Posted by Sheba

That's even before you consider that Surrey has been busy approving towers while N Delta (where I grew up) is only allowing towers on Scott Road and wants to keep the rest of the area as SFH.

They've got one now! Soon to be 3 whole towers!