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  #3281  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2008, 9:58 PM
RAlossi RAlossi is offline
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Yes.

As the condo market cools/stagnates, more people are renting. Good for developers, bad for student bloggers like myself. But overall good for Downtown.
     
     
  #3282  
Old Posted Jan 21, 2008, 10:55 PM
citywatch citywatch is offline
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Originally Posted by colemonkee View Post
We don't want to get citywatch's hope up only to let him down, though.
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Originally Posted by ThreeHundred View Post
Poor citywatch might have the heart of a 85 year old southern preacher with all these false promises and what not.
You don't have to worry about me. Over the past few days it's as though I've been struck by lightening, & so I'm not as impatient about totally new projs not starting up as I was before. Most of that is due to things I've been reading over the past few wks, like the story about OC. IOW, all the news about problems with the housing mkt & mortgage industry are making me very nervous.

And the specter of Miami Bch & San diego, with all their unsold highrise condos, isn't something I ever want to see duplicated in LA. So no use cheering about groundbreaking of big new projs, like parkfifth or whatever possibly could go up on the site described by edkao, if there's going to be a major hangover once they're completed.

Even so, yea, I'll still wanna if parkfifth, or the Glass tower, or LA central, really does begin construction over the next 12 months. But going for the ride on existing projs----& colemonkee's & fridayinla's recent photo updates show some of the examples out there----really is pretty satisfying all by itself. Even more so, cuz although it's kind of tough news for an apt hunter like ralossi, it is good to know that at least rental housing remains at a premium in DT.

By comparison, if what's going on in OC starts to crop up in DTLA, then I'm gonna go:



Quote:
Originally Posted by RAlossi View Post
The rental market is so extremely tight. But I'm willing to make sacrifices to live here, so I may very well have to.

Quote:
Jan. 18--Two reports released Thursday underscored the lackluster Orange County economy. In what may be the first sign of a weakening rental market, the RealFacts apartment research company reported the vacancy rate at major local complexes is as high as it's been in more than 12 years.

Six percent of the units tracked were empty in the fourth quarter, up from 4.9 percent the year before and 4.3 percent from the third quarter of 2007. The last time it was worse was the third quarter of 1995, by RealFacts' math.

Rents at Orange County's largest complexes averaged $1,595 in the fourth quarter of last year, up 5.1 percent over 12 months.

RealFacts' Gerald Cox says weak local job growth, heavy building of new units by landlords and possible financial challenges for prospective tenants from the subprime loan crisis may have led to the vacancy jump. "It's the economy," Cox says. "It's scary." In another report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Orange County lost 16,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2007, a decline of 1 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, and that Orange County was the only one of the nation's 10 largest counties to lose jobs during that period.



BTW, I had to drive past DT on Sat night, & the amt of traffic on the fwy from around there all the way south to OC was ridiculous. It was as bad, if not worse than what it is on a typical workday. I kept thinking of the sign hanging on apt bldgs that goes "if you lived here, you'd be home already".

I did see all the permanent searchlights beaming out from LA Live's plaza, & they really do make that part of the hood stand out. Signs of new life like that, & conversion projs like one I til now have had only a slight awareness of, the Judson, or even the description of the way the new 7-11 is helping enliven the corner of Olive & 7th Sts, are why DT is making other hoods in LA/SoCa seem stagnant by comparison.
     
     
  #3283  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 1:38 AM
JDRCRASH JDRCRASH is offline
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I'm sure that demand is higher in L.A. than Orange County. I mean look what happened to that high-rise hotel and residential complex in the Platinum Triangle, didn't it get recently scrapped?
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  #3284  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 4:30 AM
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I think the rules for building classification (or at least the rule I live by when defining a skyscraper) are:

5 stories and below = low rise
6 to 20 stories = mid rise
21 stories and above = skyscraper
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  #3285  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 12:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ladowntowner View Post
I hope you weren't railing against me, JDRCRASH, as I was almost *gasp* defending you with what I said.

Somehow I can't wrap my little head around the concept that anyone would describe a 6 story development (Medallion) in the middle of downtown as a "high-rise". Sorry. Maybe out in the 'burbs? Dunno...
In a technical sense if the 6 story development is over 75 feet in height that would be considered a high-rise and given how some have the one ot two story parking podiums that can be easily obtainable.
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  #3286  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 12:49 PM
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high rise 21 to 31 storeys
skyscraper 32 storeys or about 400 ft.
     
     
  #3287  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 3:51 PM
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^ Actually, Wright Concept is, well, right. The standard definition of a high-rise among building professionals is any building over 75 feet. It has to do mainly with the structural and safety design challenges of a building taller than 75 feet. Lenders and insurance companies use a similar definition. Buy a condo in any building with more than 6 or 7 stories, and you - by their definition and their fees - live in a high-rise building. I know because I had to sign those papers many times.

The Medallion, however, will likely not be considered a high-rise, though it may get close. It will be a Type III construction, which means 5 wood frame floors above a concrete ground floor. The wood frame floors will likely be 10 feet (with maybe a 12 or 13 foot penthouse floor), and the bottom concrete floor shouldn't be any higher than 18-19 feet. So at the max, you're looking at ~70 ft., just short of a "high-rise" by definition.
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  #3288  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 6:40 PM
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Lol..so 1100 Wilshire's parking garage is a skyscraper?

Speaking of 1100 Wilshire, will it's retail aspect ever open up? And what will it be?
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  #3289  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 9:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ThreeHundred View Post
Lol..so 1100 Wilshire's parking garage is a skyscraper?

Speaking of 1100 Wilshire, will it's retail aspect ever open up? And what will it be?

What retail aspect have you heard about? The only thing that could possibly fit in there inside is maybe a bistro style resturant. The bulk of the street facade is either a blank wall , service or parking entrance/exit.
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  #3290  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 10:36 PM
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If you walk down Bixel, there is a 'Retail coming soon' sign. Or it used to be there as I haven't been there in a while.

The only thing I could possibly see in there is some sort of Quiznos style express restraunt. The lobby is big enough for it.
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  #3291  
Old Posted Jan 22, 2008, 11:55 PM
RAlossi RAlossi is offline
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^ Last time I was there on a DCBID housing tour, one of the salesmen told me they were planning an upscale restaurant/lounge. Who knew.
     
     
  #3292  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2008, 2:07 AM
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Originally Posted by colemonkee View Post
The Medallion, however, will likely not be considered a high-rise, though it may get close. It will be a Type III construction, which means 5 wood frame floors above a concrete ground floor. The wood frame floors will likely be 10 feet (with maybe a 12 or 13 foot penthouse floor), and the bottom concrete floor shouldn't be any higher than 18-19 feet. So at the max, you're looking at ~70 ft., just short of a "high-rise" by definition.
From that equation, I'm adding 18" maximum for HVAC ducts and raceways and the 2x12 or TJI that are needed to span the floor between each floor including the roof, the slope of the site and the design of the roof that sounds like that will inch out at 75' just so they can add the high rise fees.
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"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamp post: for support, not illumination." -Vin Scully
The Opposite of PRO is CON, that fact is clearly seen.
If Progress means moves forward, then what does Congress mean?
     
     
  #3293  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 1:50 AM
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^ The city could definitely use the fees. On another note, more glass went up on the south side (2nd Street) of the LAPD HQ today. The little bit that I saw looked very nice. Transparent when looking straight at it and pretty reflective when viewed from an angle. And the alternating fenestration facade along the Spring St side is multiplying like rabbits.
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  #3294  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 4:24 AM
JDRCRASH JDRCRASH is offline
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Originally Posted by ladowntowner View Post
I hope you weren't railing against me, JDRCRASH, as I was almost *gasp* defending you with what I said.

Somehow I can't wrap my little head around the concept that anyone would describe a 6 story development (Medallion) in the middle of downtown as a "high-rise". Sorry. Maybe out in the 'burbs? Dunno...

Constructive Criticism: When calling someone's intelligence into question, at least spell the word "intelligence" correctly. You're apt to be taken more seriously that way.
Accidental wrong spelling? Big deal....But i'll work on that.

Apparantly the mayor has a different definition of the term high-rise.
Though I don't understand why.
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Last edited by JDRCRASH; Jan 24, 2008 at 4:34 AM.
     
     
  #3295  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 4:28 AM
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I think the guy in this article is talking about L.A. Central:

A Retail Rush
By Chris Sieroty Email this story | Printer-friendly | Reprints



Grand Ave.
With 1.5 million sf of retail development either on the drawing board, under construction or recently completed in Downtown Los Angeles, the region’s retail-starved Downtown is changing rapidly.
The demand for housing Downtown has helped reshaped the retail environment. “Go back two or three years ago, the majority of calls came from restaurants wanting to capture a daytime business,” says Derrick Moore, senior associate of Retail Properties, Urban Redevelopment Group with CB Richard Ellis.

“As L.A. Live took shape and more housing came online, we are starting to talk with soft goods retailers such as Nike, the Gap, and Urban Outfitters,” Moore says. “There has been a lot of interest. Ralphs has been responsible for solidifying a lot of that interest.” Some 9,347 residential units have been built since 1999, with a total inventory of 12,258 units as of the third-quarter of 2007, and an additional 7,212 under construction, according to the Downtown Center Business Improvement District. All of this new construction is expected to bring Downtown’s population up to 50,000 by 2015.

“Ralphs never would have come [to Downtown] if they didn’t think we had achieved critical mass,” says Carol E. Schatz, president and chief executive officer of the business improvement district.

Schatz says 1999 was a crucial year for Downtown with the passage of an adaptive reuse ordinance and the opening of Staples Center. After the ordinance passed, developers began renovating older buildings Downtown into rental units and with retail through the ground floors. Moderate to upper income housing has joined the mix, meaning more residents, more retail.

“The basic formula, that retail follows beds, is what has caused a re-emergence of retail development,” Schatz says. “The first indication that the residential market was having an effect was when Macy’s opened a mattress department about four years ago.” Schatz says early on retail development was geared toward entertainment and sports with restaurants and bars in the South Park area, near Staples Center.

“Now restaurants and nightclubs are being followed by more traditional retail,” she says. The more traditional retailers have been confined in recent years to two malls around the financial district. Macy’s Plaza at Seventh and Flower streets houses the likes of Victoria Secret, Limited Express, Bath & Body Works and Lady’s Foot Locker. An outdoor mall at Seventh and Figueroa streets, called 7th & Fig, contains Ann Taylor Loft, Panda Express, Morton’s steak house and Starbucks.

Moore says 7th & Fig, which is owned by Brookfield Properties, was expected to undergo a complete renovation. He says the 300,000-sf former Robinsons-May store was expected to be remodeled to attract a big box retailer, such as Target.

“It’s in the planning stages,” Moore says. “They’ve done community outreach and [conducted] focus groups. There has always been a strong retail presence on Seventh Street between Figueroa and Olive.”

Schatz says her organization has been working on attracting a big bookstore to Downtown. She says there have also been a number of smaller dry goods stores and boutiques opening in recent months.

“This is a very important sign that the retail environment is continuing to grow,” she says.

Amir Araghi, a research analyst with Grubb & Ellis, says the opening of the Nokia Theatre, coupled with the opening of the Ralphs Downtown, “has ushered in a fresh breath into the market.”

“Encouraged by the early success of Ralphs and other Downtown retailers, developers will move to meet the needs and demands of the growing residential base with numerous new projects,” Araghi wrote in his Los Angeles Retail 2008 Forecast report. He cautioned that the retail market will see moderate activity as interest and demand will remain high, but the tightening credit market will make purchasing product much more difficult. “The effects of an economic slowdown will be felt directly in the retail market,” Araghi wrote.

Despite the success of both malls and the addition of small boutique stores, there is no retail center in Downtown Los Angeles. The area is made up of a series of neighborhoods, including the financial district, the fashion district, Bunker Hill, South Park and the Historic Core, which is home to discount stores.

The recent project that has received the most attention is L.A. Live, next to Staples Center in the South Park neighborhood. The $2.5-billion development will be owned and operated by the Anschutz Entertainment Group.

The project, which is being built in three phases, contains the Nokia Theatre, ESPN’s regional headquarters and a Ritz-Carlton. Its retail component will be entertainment oriented, with several restaurants, nightclubs and coffee houses.

Across the street from Staples Center will be the $2.2-billion L.A. Center development.(are you kidding me?) Developed by the Moinian Group on Figueroa and 11th streets, the mixed-use project will feature 250,000 sf of retail and entertainment with 860 rental units and a 220-room hotel. Construction was expected to begin in late 2008, says Howard J. Samuels.

“It’s an ideal complement to L.A. Live,” says Samuels, founder of Samuels and Company Inc., which is the leasing broker for L.A. Center and assisted in leasing more than 166,000 sf of space at L.A. Live. His company is also leasing 25,000 sf of ground-floor retail at the AT&T Center, located east of Staples Center, which includes Starbucks, Subway and FedEx Kinko’s. He says Downtown Los Angeles has traditionally been underserved by many retailers, including supermarket chains.

Samuels says he has had discussions with Tesco Plc., owner of Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market, and Whole Food Market Inc. about leasing space in L.A. Center.

“They’ve seen the success Ralphs has enjoyed and are saying maybe I could do a location Downtown,” he says. “We would love to have Tesco. However, we think any supermarket that opens in L.A. Center would complement Ralphs.”

Speaking of Ralphs, the store has been open six months and still ranks within the top 15% of the chain’s 266 Southern California stores, according to a company spokesman. “The store continues to do well and far exceeds our expectations,” says Terry O’Neil, director of public relations with Ralphs Grocery Co. “It is one of our best stores in terms of sales and customer volume.”

O’Neil declined to release specific sales figures for the store. He says six months after it opened the store continues to draw customers from neighborhoods west of the 110 Freeway and east of the Los Angeles River.

“What took us by surprise is the amount of business we did over the weekend,” O’Neil says. “We anticipated the store doing well Monday through Friday with a business crowd, but what we didn’t expect was Saturday and Sunday to be the busiest days.”

The 50,000-sf store, one of the chain’s upscale Fresh Fare gourmet markets on the ground floor of the Market Lofts at Ninth and Flower streets, offers customers a pharmacy, dry cleaner, organic foods, and a full-service meat and seafood departments.

“We are always tweaking with the product mix,” he says. “The Downtown store is one of three stores to offer wine tasting. It is the first [Ralphs] to offer a full--service catering department.”

O’Neil confirmed the company was looking at opening a second store Downtown, possibly in an area that is part of the Grand Avenue project.

“With the growth of Downtown…there is definitely room for more stores,” he says. The Grand Avenue project, a $1.8-billion project(heh, costs, dork) developed by the Related Cos. will be built in several phases. The first phase will offer 250,000 sf of retail, including a 45,000-sf grocery store, a health club, a bookstore and seven restaurants. By the time it’s completed, the development was expected to offer 900,000 sf of retail space.

Samuels says more retail should follow the construction of these projects. “I feel someone could develop more than a million sf of retail space if it were available,” Samuels says. “There is also an opportunity to attract big-box retailers.”
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Last edited by JDRCRASH; Jan 24, 2008 at 4:58 AM.
     
     
  #3296  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 7:01 AM
citywatch citywatch is offline
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Originally Posted by JDRCRASH View Post
Construction was expected to begin in late 2008, says Howard J. Samuels.
I'm not sure if either the reporter or Samuels, or both, made the opposite mistake that some ppl are guilty of around the new yr, in which they accidentally write "2007" instead of "2008" on, for example a check or letter. But probably so, cuz if LA Central really was supposed to break ground at the end of this yr (2008), the sentence would have read: construction IS expected to begin in late 2008.

And I believe you or some other SSPer asked about Tom gilmore's condo tower next to St Vibiana's. His business partner was quoted in an article a few months ago as saying that actual construction on the bldg would not begin til he---or they---could see how well existing new housing, esp around the OBD, sells in DT.

It's a safe bet right now to immediately assume that any new proj that's not under actual construction today won't be breaking ground til the problems in the investment/banking industry are settled, home buyers are having an easier time getting mortgages, & the existing supply of new condos/apts in DT, & throughout much of LA in general, is spoken for.

And even though OC is in one part of SoCa, & LA is in another, because of the domino effect, if OC's economy is starting to get beat up, then that may negatively impact LA too. For example, if a homeowner in OC wants to sell his/her house & move to DTLA, but can't find a buyer for it, guess what happens to that person's plans to move to LA?
     
     
  #3297  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 5:08 PM
JDRCRASH JDRCRASH is offline
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If I understand correctly, foreclosures in L.A. are up 85%, compared to 115% in Orange County.
Hey guys, have you checked out the recent photos of Hanover? They're installing the Billboard mountings!
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Last edited by JDRCRASH; Jan 24, 2008 at 7:30 PM.
     
     
  #3298  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 7:54 PM
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Originally Posted by citywatch View Post
[/b]
And I believe you or some other SSPer asked about Tom gilmore's condo tower next to St Vibiana's. His business partner was quoted in an article a few months ago as saying that actual construction on the bldg would not begin til he---or they---could see how well existing new housing, esp around the OBD, sells in DT.
I would think that Tom Gilmore and company would wait and see what the results of the Medallion will bring. It would be a good measure of what the demand is for the rental/condo market in the OBD.
     
     
  #3299  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 9:02 PM
JDRCRASH JDRCRASH is offline
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I'm starting to suspect that the status of MOST, if not all, of the planned residential towers are going to depend on the condition of the market, which really sucks, since that means 2008 will be a year of LITTLE groundbreaking.
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  #3300  
Old Posted Jan 24, 2008, 9:27 PM
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Originally Posted by JDRCRASH View Post
I'm starting to suspect that the status of MOST, if not all, of the planned residential towers are going to depend on the condition of the market, which really sucks, since that means 2008 will be a year of LITTLE groundbreaking.
Hey, you can still enjoy the Ritz @ LA Live, Concerto, and 717 9th going up! I'm sure I'm missing a couple others. Also, I'd be surpirised if we didn't get at least one big groundbreaking this year.
     
     
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