The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by lio45

Another factor is population: there are over 4 million people, out of which only one cigarette-throwing idiot is needed to start a fire, who live in/near boreal forests in Alberta; conversely, there's nearly no one who lives up there in Quebec.

How many people do you think live in Alberta? The majority of the population lives in prairie or transitional zones. Edmonton is borderline boreal but not quite. Fort Mac is big but not that big. Agreed there are more people up north in AB than Quebec though.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

This is a false narrative. If you think that measly budget would even make a dent in the current wildfire situation in Alberta, you are lying to yourself.

Alberta needs rain, and lots of it. Short of that we are going to burn until there is nothing left to burn.

There is nothing false about what I said. The UCP literally cut early forest fire detection funding. They manned less towers and eliminated stuff like aerial surveillance. Sure there would likely still have been fires, but maybe we’d have a better handle on them. As usual it’s penny smart and pound foolish for our government.

[Hackslack]

Maybe if humans weren’t so f’n stupid. According to this article, “ Studies have shown human ignition is to blame for 84% of all wildfires in the United States”.

https://www.science.org/content/arti...-caused-nature

I imagine that, because it’s may long weekend, and the weather so hot, many people will be camping which will lead to more fires.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

How many people do you think live in Alberta?

4.4 million, and FYI, it's not just "my opinion, equally valid as any other number."

The majority of the population lives in prairie or transitional zones. Edmonton is borderline boreal but not quite. Fort Mac is big but not that big. Agreed there are more people up north in AB than Quebec though.

I said "in or near", my point obviously being that the risk of a human-ignited wildfire increases proportionally to number of people who regularly venture into the fire-prone areas.

In Greater Edmonton you have 1.5M-2M people who are within realistic distance of going ATVing or camping in an area where their carelessness could start a fire under the right (dry) conditions, which is not the case in Quebec or Ontario. I'm pretty sure (though not 100% sure) that it's the case for Calgary as well.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by lio45

4.4 million, and FYI, it's not just "my opinion, equally valid as any other number."


I said "in or near", my point obviously being that the risk of a human-ignited wildfire increases proportionally to number of people who regularly venture into the fire-prone areas.

In Greater Edmonton you have 1.5M-2M people who are within realistic distance of going ATVing or camping in an area where their carelessness could start a fire under the right (dry) conditions, which is not the case in Quebec or Ontario. I'm pretty sure (though not 100% sure) that it's the case for Calgary as well.

You got it. People need to be extra diligent when venturing out. It’s so easy to spark a flame.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

There is nothing false about what I said. The UCP literally cut early forest fire detection funding. They manned less towers and eliminated stuff like aerial surveillance. Sure there would likely still have been fires, but maybe we’d have a better handle on them. As usual it’s penny smart and pound foolish for our government.

You do you, but that's simply not reality.

Initial attack does nothing against fires in these types of conditions.

[Hackslack]

Varcoe: Alberta keeps leading Canada in renewable investment, while oil growth continues

https://calgaryherald.com/business/v...owth-continues

Canada saw 1.8 gigawatts of new solar and wind generation capacity added in 2022, with more than 75 per cent of it landing in Alberta, says the Canadian Renewable Energy Association

When it comes to solar and wind projects, Alberta is already leading the country in attracting new investment. At the same time, oilsands production is expected to grow modestly this decade, with output remaining resilient in the face of the energy transition, according to Rystad Energy.

“When it comes to wind, solar and storage buildout, Alberta is by far going to be the leader,” he said in an interview.

“Alberta . . . has allowed for an influx of new development, and we’re really going see these projects coming online in 2024 and 2025 — that’s when the momentum is going to build.”

Business Renewables Centre Canada, which tracks corporate procurement of renewable energy projects, reports the estimated value of these project investments has ballooned from just $34 million in 2017 to $2.4 billion in 2021.

[1overcosc]

Has Alberta looked at increasing its interconnections with BC so that they can use BC's reservoirs for energy storage to smooth out the reliability of wind & solar?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Varcoe: Alberta keeps leading Canada in renewable investment, while oil growth continues

https://calgaryherald.com/business/v...owth-continues

It's notable that the solar investments are real (records in 2022), and the "modest growth" in oil sands is something that is forecast. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Hackslack]

https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca...%20by%207.4%25.

Non-conventional (or oil sands) production, which constituted 84.5% of all oil production in Alberta in March 2023, increased by 2.6% year-over-year, while production of conventional oil increased by 7.4%.

[O-tacular]

https://globalnews.ca/wp-content/upl...ls0.png?w=1200

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/h6...6-6ce477f534c6

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/photos-sat...x47yy4J3IiaZaF

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca...%20by%207.4%25.

If you zoom in a bit, it seems pretty flat from 2018 to today.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Has Alberta looked at increasing its interconnections with BC so that they can use BC's reservoirs for energy storage to smooth out the reliability of wind & solar?

Yes, but the incumbent generators won't stand for it.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Yes, but the incumbent generators won't stand for it.

Gas and coal in Alberta? Who put them in charge?

If there's a good business case, it should be done. I don't know if there is, as that's some difficult geography to build across.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Gas and coal in Alberta? Who put them in charge?

If there's a good business case, it should be done. I don't know if there is, as that's some difficult geography to build across.

There is an existing 500 kV line between Calgary and Cranbrook, it was built in the 80s. (The routing work was done on horseback in the summer and cross country skis in the winter.)

Introducing an out of market generator into an energy only market will rightly ruffle some feathers. I don't know if they are in charge or not, just that the lobby is pretty strong.

[DougB]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Yes, but the incumbent generators won't stand for it.

With AB's wholesale electricity market, where generators have no transmission rights, incumbency and the "lobby" are irrelevant. This is why upstart wind and solar generators have grown share so quickly. AESO is required by law to procure based on merit order and guarantee transmission: lowest offer filled first, second lowest offer filled second etc. until total demand is filled. Price is all that matters.

Many "incumbent" generators had long-term power purchase agreements, but the former NDP breached the contracts, resulting in substantial penalties:
https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/co...-fiasco-mounts

The BC Intertie is currently being debottlenecked:
https://www.altalink.ca/projects/vie...ration-project

The biggest barrier to increased power trading between the two markets is BC's opaque electricity market (ex. no published pool price to aid in price discovery) and the BC Hydro monopoly. https://www.corporateknights.com/bui...-alberta-wind/.

This reports argues that Powerex has an unfair advantage when selling into AB:
https://ippsa.com/wp-content/uploads...ort_Nov_11.pdf

You can see the real-time power flows between the two provinces at:
http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market...DReportServlet

[casper]

Originally Posted by DougB

The BC Intertie is currently being debottlenecked:
https://www.altalink.ca/projects/vie...ration-project

The biggest barrier to increased power trading between the two markets is BC's opaque electricity market (ex. no published pool price to aid in price discovery) and the BC Hydro monopoly. https://www.corporateknights.com/bui...-alberta-wind/.

This reports argues that Powerex has an unfair advantage when selling into AB:
https://ippsa.com/wp-content/uploads...ort_Nov_11.pdf

You can see the real-time power flows between the two provinces at:
http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market...DReportServlet

Interesting take on the difference between the BC and Alberta system. They are radically different systems.

When BC Hydro needs more long term capacity in the province, it does a competitive RFP process for independent producers and signs 30 year deal they are not expecting the independent producer to sell all their power to BC Hydro at a contracted rate for decades. They are not expecting to have them compete on an hourly basis.

BC Hydro structurally having a lower cost system, if it flooded the Alberta market with electricity it would drive down prices and discourage private sector building independent plants in Alberta.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by DougB

The BC Intertie is currently being debottlenecked:
https://www.altalink.ca/projects/vie...ration-project

I can promise you that it's not.

[O-tacular]

Looks like wildfires aren't just a western problem. Hopefully Halifax doesn't get burned.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9729777/h...e=notification

[casper]

Originally Posted by DougB

With AB's wholesale electricity market, where generators have no transmission rights, incumbency and the "lobby" are irrelevant. This is why upstart wind and solar generators have grown share so quickly. AESO is required by law to procure based on merit order and guarantee transmission: lowest offer filled first, second lowest offer filled second etc. until total demand is filled. Price is all that matters.

....

You can see the real-time power flows between the two provinces at:
http://ets.aeso.ca/ets_web/ip/Market...DReportServlet

I have looked at that a few times and each time there area a few things that are striking:

- Alberta is almost always brining in around 300 MW from BC.

- Wind and Solar are consistently underperforming well below their name plate capacity factor.

- Alberta has no shortage of Natural Gas, and Hydro capacity available that it could dispatch but instead it is burning coal. Clearly the utility operator has no commitment to reduce greenhouse gases when it has a choice. I can understand using coal as a last resort, but its the first choice. Since it is this weird "free market" that means the carbon tax is still to low to drive that decision in the correct direction.