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  #301  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 1:21 PM
J81 J81 is offline
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Originally Posted by Ottawa View Post

I don't care what Halifax does, or Montreal for that matter. Until they can change the laws of physics, Halifax is at the end of a 200 mile longer route (through Montreal) to the markets of Canada and the US. Montreal has a hard ceiling of 6000 TEU/294 meter ships. That is a non-optional early 'best before' date, especially now. Maersk and Evergreen both have ships that will never touch the St Lawrence River because of size and if Maersk and Evergreen choose to go to a single source rail port like Halifax with a longer trip to market, all I can ask is why they want to run inefficiently. NY/NJ is 400 nautical miles further by ship from Rotterdam/etc/Northern Europe. With CSX now connected for general freight, and possibly for intermodal come spring '24, I am now waiting to see intermodal traffic between NBSR and CSX. That will be another marker.

I have never heard CSX speak directly of intermodal traffic between them and NBSR but it only makes sense that that is what they are thinking of when they rebuilt the line through Maine to achieve FRA4 rail standards. FRA4 is 60MPH freight and 80MPH passenger service. It is not quite there yet, but it is looking like that is what they are aiming for. That would be what the CSX CEO was talking about on Oct. 19, 2023 when he referred to running high speed trains in the near future right through to Mattawamkeag(the CSX end of line). He was referring to 2024 and beyond - not the trains that started running on Dec. 4th, 2023. That FRA4 classification is what is needed to beat everyone to Chicago. All things being equal, and including those things that cannot be changed, we can beat them all to Chicago and beyond. I don't have any inside information but I have kept my ear to the ground enough to make some realistic assumptions.
Have you looked at a map of Atlantic Canada? Halifax may be 200 rail miles further than SJ is but SJ is 291NM further by sea. By the time a ship arrives in SJ the containers it could have unloaded in Halifax would be nearly to Edmunston NB on CNs line.

The best bet for growth for SJ is to poach the Montreal traffic. A container port that far inland has never made much sense to me. Having said that, Montreal is never going away. Too many powerful people involved there.
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  #302  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 1:45 PM
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The best bet for growth for SJ is to poach the Montreal traffic.
Or, poach on traffic otherwise headed to the US eastern seaboard. Baltimore is probably two days of sailing further down the coast. Containers could be halfway across the continent already if offloaded in SJ rather than Baltimore.
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  #303  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 1:45 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is offline
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Originally Posted by J81 View Post
Have you looked at a map of Atlantic Canada? Halifax may be 200 rail miles further than SJ is but SJ is 291NM further by sea. By the time a ship arrives in SJ the containers it could have unloaded in Halifax would be nearly to Edmunston NB on CNs line.

The best bet for growth for SJ is to poach the Montreal traffic. A container port that far inland has never made much sense to me. Having said that, Montreal is never going away. Too many powerful people involved there.
I always thought you wanted to get the cargo as far as possible by sea before transferring to land based transport.....no?

Agree that Montreal is more about politics
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  #304  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 4:51 PM
cdnguys cdnguys is online now
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Originally Posted by J81 View Post
Have you looked at a map of Atlantic Canada? Halifax may be 200 rail miles further than SJ is but SJ is 291NM further by sea. By the time a ship arrives in SJ the containers it could have unloaded in Halifax would be nearly to Edmunston NB on CNs line.

The best bet for growth for SJ is to poach the Montreal traffic. A container port that far inland has never made much sense to me. Having said that, Montreal is never going away. Too many powerful people involved there.
Speaking of powerful people, I like to think Dubai World has some strong business connections with shipping lines that could sway them to switch
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  #305  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 5:01 PM
cdnguys cdnguys is online now
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Originally Posted by sailor734 View Post
I always thought you wanted to get the cargo as far as possible by sea before transferring to land based transport.....no?

Agree that Montreal is more about politics
There’s actually a science to choosing the port. Just one easy example, goods offloaded in Prince Rupert, BC due to bottlenecks in North American west coast ports.

[IMG][/IMG]
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  #306  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 7:07 PM
J81 J81 is offline
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Yes PR is a good example of a booming secondary port because of the congestion in LA and Long beach. It happens to be a lot closer than LA as well. The east coast has far more port capacity. There are a lot of options for container lines.
SJ is going to be a harder sell. Now dont get me wrong. There is a lot of business to be had. Just have to cherry pick the right business and i dont think Halifax is it.
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  #307  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 7:12 PM
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Originally Posted by sailor734 View Post
I always thought you wanted to get the cargo as far as possible by sea before transferring to land based transport.....no?

Agree that Montreal is more about politics
Not when a ship that burns 150 tons of fuel per day has to backtrack out of the St Lawrence or even the Bay of Fundy. That is why Halifax is so attractive.
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  #308  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 10:12 PM
FromMaine FromMaine is offline
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A few other important factors for port utilization -- cost (pier fees) and congestion.

Hapag publishes good congestion/dwell times on their weekly reporting.

https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/servi...h-america.html

"Saint John

Bad weather on the North Atlantic is having a small impact on vessels arriving in Saint John.
Terminal productivity is strong and dwell times have improved to 3.7 days. Car supply will remain healthy for the balance of the year.

Halifax

Vessels are arriving in Halifax with minimal delays.
Import rail dwell is presently 5.2 days. Labor availability continues to be a concern and has been addressed with the Halifax Employers Association. Railcar supply has improved, allowing for lower dwell times."
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  #309  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 10:31 PM
NewIreland NewIreland is offline
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Not when a ship that burns 150 tons of fuel per day has to backtrack out of the St Lawrence or even the Bay of Fundy. That is why Halifax is so attractive.
Absolute BS! Transporting by sea is by far the most economical approach, especially when the destination has 3 railways and and ice free port.
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  #310  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 10:35 PM
cdnguys cdnguys is online now
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Saint John and Halifax tariffs for containerized cargo

Saint John:

[IMG][/IMG]

Halifax:

[IMG][/IMG]
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  #311  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 3:07 AM
J81 J81 is offline
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Absolute BS! Transporting by sea is by far the most economical approach, especially when the destination has 3 railways and and ice free port.
Haha! Dont let your emotions get in the way of facts. You think its more economical to ship 150 containers 300nm further by ship than it is by rail? 150 tons of fuel extra to get to SJ plus another 100 or so on the way out. 4 locomotives pulling those same 150 containers the same distance burn about 500 gallons each. Its not hard to see the difference in economics.

Ill do some math for you. 1 ton of Bunker C equals around 300 US gallons. Lets say a ship burns 200 tons for the extra distance in and out of SJ. 300x200= 60000 gallons of fuel just to go to SJ.

CN usually has 4 units leading their daily intermodal train out of Halifax. They are 4300hp ( EMD )or 4400hp ( GE ) and have 4000 gallon fuel tanks. They leave Halifax full and make it all the way to BIT in Toronto without refueling. They arrive with somewhere around 1000 gallons left meaning each one burns around 3000 gallons for the trip to Toronto for a total of 12000 gallons.

With your logic Prince Rupert wouldnt exist and Chicago would have one of the largest container ports on the continent.

Your comment probably does hold true with bulk products though in some cases so i will give u that but its not universal. The difference is container traffic tends to be light while the bulk commodities are dense and very heavy. A 14000ft intermodal train is pretty consistent at 1000 tons per 1000 ft of train length so a 14000 ft container train is in the 14000 ton range obviously with some variation but not much. Bulk commodities like Potash for example are the complete opposite. They arrive in Moncton from Sask at 25000 tons and sometimes 28000 tons while only in the 6000ft long range. So if shipping by water is so much more economical then can you explain why the potash isnt put on a ship in Thunder Bay during the great lakes shipping season instead of all the way to SJ?

Last edited by J81; Jan 3, 2024 at 3:29 AM.
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  #312  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 3:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewIreland View Post
Absolute BS! Transporting by sea is by far the most economical approach, especially when the destination has 3 railways and and ice free port.
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Originally Posted by J81 View Post
Haha! Dont let your emotions get in the way of facts. You think its more economical to ship 150 containers 300nm further by ship than it is by rail? 150 tons of fuel extra to get to SJ plus another 100 or so on the way out. 4 locomotives pulling those same 150 containers the same distance burn about 500 gallons each. Its not hard to see the difference in economics.

Ill do some math for you. 1 ton of Bunker C equals around 300 US gallons. Lets say a ship burns 200 tons for the extra distance in and out of SJ. 300x200= 60000 gallons of fuel just to go to SJ.

CN usually has 4 units leading their daily intermodal train out of Halifax. They are 4300hp ( EMD )or 4400hp ( GE ) and have 4000 gallon fuel tanks. They leave Halifax full and make it all the way to BIT in Toronto without refueling. They arrive with somewhere around 1000 gallons left meaning each one burns around 3000 gallons for the trip to Toronto for a total of 12000 gallons.
He's right though. Transporting by rail is cheaper than by truck and plane, boat is the cheapest. The goal is to keep it on the boat as long as they can so that unloading is done as far inland as can be done. The ideal is to get the containers by boat as close to the populations as much as possible. This won't be changing anytime soon. This is what makes Saint John more attractive on top of more choices by rail and shorter truck commutes to the U.S. than Halifax. As far as the boats using more fuel there is many more containers on the boat than the train to pay for the fuel, bottom line is that most containers are ordered weeks and even months ahead of time and a little more time on the boat is not what they are concerned about. They are concerned about having the cheapest price on goods to be as competitive as they possibly can in the market and a lower shipping cost helps with that.
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  #313  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 3:56 AM
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Originally Posted by J81 View Post
Have you looked at a map of Atlantic Canada? Halifax may be 200 rail miles further than SJ is but SJ is 291NM further by sea. By the time a ship arrives in SJ the containers it could have unloaded in Halifax would be nearly to Edmunston NB on CNs line.

The best bet for growth for SJ is to poach the Montreal traffic. A container port that far inland has never made much sense to me. Having said that, Montreal is never going away. Too many powerful people involved there.
Maps are almost like statistics - you can twist things to come up with the numbers you want.

I see you used 291 NM because it's practically the worst case scenario from northern Europe. If you go to the Mediterranean/Suez canal the distance is pretty much half that at 156 NM. That makes it shippers choice but Saint John has 3 tier 1 railroad options and a much faster trip to Chicago. Halifax to Chicago is 1626 miles. Saint John to Chicago is 1411 miles.

Since you cherry picked northern Europe, I'll cherry pick the Panama Canal. Saint John has a 6 NM advantage and that 200 mile land advantage and rail options are still there.

I am not the one who is going to talk to all the potential shippers out there. I would be surprised if CSX and CPKC are not tag teaming all of your (and Montreal's) shippers. And probably have been for some time. They wouldn't be doing their job otherwise. I am hopeful the plans are all ready made and just need to be executed. There certainly are signs to indicate that.

I didn't see fuel economy anywhere on the scientific method of picking ports, so I feel pretty sure there are no deal breakers there - if the "scientific method" is actually used.

I really hope that the people actually in charge of the ports have a better grasp on what to expect in the future. The shipping companies are going to be struggling again this year if they don't come to an understanding of how to rebalance the intermodal market. 2024 is predicted to be an even deeper dive for shippers so they are going to have to dig deep to make things work this year. They are way supply side heavy.
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  #314  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 1:10 PM
nwalbert nwalbert is offline
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Originally Posted by J81 View Post
Have you looked at a map of Atlantic Canada? Halifax may be 200 rail miles further than SJ is but SJ is 291NM further by sea. By the time a ship arrives in SJ the containers it could have unloaded in Halifax would be nearly to Edmunston NB on CNs line.

The best bet for growth for SJ is to poach the Montreal traffic. A container port that far inland has never made much sense to me. Having said that, Montreal is never going away. Too many powerful people involved there.
I am not an expert but I believe the strategy is to travel as far as possible via sea to reduce cost, thus the extra 200 miles at sea versus rail is considered a benefit.
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  #315  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 2:21 PM
cdnguys cdnguys is online now
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Many ships that come to SJ stop in Halifax on the way, and on the way back so clearly there are other variables
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  #316  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 3:48 PM
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I am not an expert but I believe the strategy is to travel as far as possible via sea to reduce cost, thus the extra 200 miles at sea versus rail is considered a benefit.
The bigger the vessel, the more efficient the transport. That is a general principle that applies to all transportation.
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  #317  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 5:32 PM
nwalbert nwalbert is offline
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Speaking of powerful people, I like to think Dubai World has some strong business connections with shipping lines that could sway them to switch
This is my understanding as well, which is why Port SJ is so well positioned versus Halifax and Montreal.
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  #318  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 5:35 PM
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The bigger the vessel, the more efficient the transport. That is a general principle that applies to all transportation.
No expert here but that was certainly always my understanding.

There must have been a reason why Saint John was so busy back in the days of the winterport and then so dead in the summer when Montreal was open.
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  #319  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 6:34 PM
PSJ harbour PSJ harbour is offline
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Saint John

Good day,

I am new to this thread and was quite impressed with some of the comments. I want to share a few opinions and thoughts on my end regarding PSJ and business.

I do a bit of longshore work myself and I can tell you that not many are aware of this CSX rail line. Several years ago CMA feeders were coming weekly to serve hurricane relief cargo for Haiti from the states, and Pan Am was hauling it at the time, now CSX. We only see NBSR engines in the city, so not many people are aware that CP, CN and CSX all serve PSJ. The CN engines do bring the potash directly to the Terminal, so CN engines are seen on the CN line periodically. Other than that, it is rare to see CP or Pan Am when they hauled here.

Halifax is served by CN solely, and with no competition, customers are likely paying top dollar than other ports who have a few different hauling options. On the other hand, Halifax is ice free and deep, and more importantly just a slight sail off the sailing route from Europe to New York. Halifax has benefited from being a large port that can handle todays biggest container ships. Cma and now One is regularly calling Halifax with 360m ships. The issue with Halifax is space and the future. With sea levels rising, somebody is eventually going to have to put huge money into the CN line, which has already seen wash outs and have prevented cargo from moving. This is a major concern for Halifax, which is why there remains rumbling of building another deep water port in NS. Also, the truck traffic and congestion downtown continues to bottleneck the city centre.

Saint John now has three class 1 railways, and hoping CSX begins knocking on doors soon for cargo. When CP began, Hapag Lloyd jumped on board and cargo began rushing in and out. It happened too quickly and the port was not able to keep up and NBS could not keep up at all. We weren’t ready for the amount HL poured on at once. The AT3 service was lost, just as the new rail yard was in final stages. The port could certainly handle the AT3 service today, but this is a different subject all together. Once CP started, CN was no where to be seen, until the last few months, as they have began hailing CMA cargo regularly, nothing close to what CP hauls, but significant cargo, including reefers. So CN is certainly not out of the game in Saint John, which is great. It will be interesting to see what CSX does if they do come knocking. Hopefully they can tap into new cargo going down the eastern seaboard, but I can see them and CP going to battle for Chicago, Detroit and Midwest cargo.

The two HL lines calling here now dump off cargo specifically. One service dumps off cargo to reduce draft to get to Montreal, and the other drops cargo off before dumping off remaining cargo in Norfolk. Most of the inbound rail coming in are empties for the ONE service, but there are loads as well. So far Saint John has been used as a dumping ground for cargo, instead of loading. The expansion has helped this, however Saint John will never see a 366m ship at Rodney terminal. The 295 NYK ships take up the berth and the pilots have their hands full with the 295’s. They may be able to accommodate the 303m ships that are also wider, but not the size they anticipated. For this reason, Halifax will always have the upper hand regarding ship size handling.

Key points: Halifax is much bigger and can handle biggest ships in world and close to trade route.

Saint John is ice free, deep, can handle bigger ships than Montreal, and has three options via rail. Better North/South trade than Halifax.

Montreal is inland, much better for customers, but has huge costs for pilotage, ice breaking and draft restrictions. As ships continue to get bigger and bigger, Montreal will become less inviting and efficient for customers.

Please share and add thoughts!
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  #320  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 6:51 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is offline
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Originally Posted by PSJ harbour View Post
Good day,

I am new to this thread and was quite impressed with some of the comments. I want to share a few opinions and thoughts on my end regarding PSJ and business.

I do a bit of longshore work myself and I can tell you that not many are aware of this CSX rail line. Several years ago CMA feeders were coming weekly to serve hurricane relief cargo for Haiti from the states, and Pan Am was hauling it at the time, now CSX. We only see NBSR engines in the city, so not many people are aware that CP, CN and CSX all serve PSJ. The CN engines do bring the potash directly to the Terminal, so CN engines are seen on the CN line periodically. Other than that, it is rare to see CP or Pan Am when they hauled here.

Halifax is served by CN solely, and with no competition, customers are likely paying top dollar than other ports who have a few different hauling options. On the other hand, Halifax is ice free and deep, and more importantly just a slight sail off the sailing route from Europe to New York. Halifax has benefited from being a large port that can handle todays biggest container ships. Cma and now One is regularly calling Halifax with 360m ships. The issue with Halifax is space and the future. With sea levels rising, somebody is eventually going to have to put huge money into the CN line, which has already seen wash outs and have prevented cargo from moving. This is a major concern for Halifax, which is why there remains rumbling of building another deep water port in NS. Also, the truck traffic and congestion downtown continues to bottleneck the city centre.

Saint John now has three class 1 railways, and hoping CSX begins knocking on doors soon for cargo. When CP began, Hapag Lloyd jumped on board and cargo began rushing in and out. It happened too quickly and the port was not able to keep up and NBS could not keep up at all. We weren’t ready for the amount HL poured on at once. The AT3 service was lost, just as the new rail yard was in final stages. The port could certainly handle the AT3 service today, but this is a different subject all together. Once CP started, CN was no where to be seen, until the last few months, as they have began hailing CMA cargo regularly, nothing close to what CP hauls, but significant cargo, including reefers. So CN is certainly not out of the game in Saint John, which is great. It will be interesting to see what CSX does if they do come knocking. Hopefully they can tap into new cargo going down the eastern seaboard, but I can see them and CP going to battle for Chicago, Detroit and Midwest cargo.

The two HL lines calling here now dump off cargo specifically. One service dumps off cargo to reduce draft to get to Montreal, and the other drops cargo off before dumping off remaining cargo in Norfolk. Most of the inbound rail coming in are empties for the ONE service, but there are loads as well. So far Saint John has been used as a dumping ground for cargo, instead of loading. The expansion has helped this, however Saint John will never see a 366m ship at Rodney terminal. The 295 NYK ships take up the berth and the pilots have their hands full with the 295’s. They may be able to accommodate the 303m ships that are also wider, but not the size they anticipated. For this reason, Halifax will always have the upper hand regarding ship size handling.

Key points: Halifax is much bigger and can handle biggest ships in world and close to trade route.

Saint John is ice free, deep, can handle bigger ships than Montreal, and has three options via rail. Better North/South trade than Halifax.

Montreal is inland, much better for customers, but has huge costs for pilotage, ice breaking and draft restrictions. As ships continue to get bigger and bigger, Montreal will become less inviting and efficient for customers.

Please share and add thoughts!

Seems like a good summation....thanks for sharing.
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