Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

Also Harper tried very hard to keep the feds nose out of provincial jurisdiction. Something that the Liberals love to do. With the resulting "events" of course.

Agreed. This is of course a major difference between an "activist government" and a government mostly interested in fiscal responsibility and economic growth.

Liberals = SJW's & activists = meddlers = interferers in provincial jurisdiction.

[FrankieFlowerpot]

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-s...ndp-well-back/

[whatnext]

Nice to see Alberta herd-think is still intact.

[rousseau]

How does a poll at one year out from an election stack up in terms of predictions? Does it bode well for Trudeau?

[FrankieFlowerpot]

Likely worthless - here's 2015

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2015

[travis3000]

Nanos also reflecting similar results. Trudeau leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario and BC, Cons leading in the Prairies. A result like this would produce a Liberal majority.

But this is a year away, so many things will change. I've said it before many times and I'll say it again, next election is Trudeau's to lose. I still believe he will win again.

[Phil McAvity]

^I agree, I think Prime Minister Zoolander is headed for another majority government, especially after Max's departure from the Conservatives although a lot can obviously change in a year

So even though a few people here have said that Harper was nasty and vindictive, nobody has any proof of it. The reason I ask is because I don't remember there being much acrimony between Harper and others but what I do remember is there being a pretty acrimonious relationship between Paul Martin and Jean Chretien although i'm not sure who, if either, were to blame so it sounds to me like people are just trying to paint Harper as a scary, mean right-winger when there's little proof.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Nice to see Alberta herd-think is still intact.

Were you not aware that Alberta has an NDP government for the first time in it's history?

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-s...ndp-well-back/

This would actually be an interesting layout; in that despite the relatively narrow Liberal lead (38-34), it would probably be a strong Liberal majority because of the strength in Ontario and particularly in Quebec, where the NDP-Bloc vote split would allow the Liberals to do very well.

[ssiguy]

^ I completely agree. This is Liberal majority territory.

The Tories will make gains in the Atlantic {although they don't have any now so that isn't saying much} probably in the more traditional support base in NB. Ontario will go mostly Liberal. BC will be more of an even split but it is Quebec where they will make huge gains as they have very solid support but a very fractured opposition which in a FPTP system can lead to a huge sweep. I wouldn't be surprised if they get 70 of Quebec's 80 seats. Ford's win in Ontario also helps Trudeau as Ontarians have a flawless record of voting in to Ottawa the opposite party of who is reigning at Queen's Park. This will be even more so in a year when Ford's needed spending cuts start eating into essential services.

Alberta and SK will be swept by the Conservatives with an exception of a few urban seats while they will probably get all of rural Manitoba but possibly none in Winnipeg. A sweep in Alberta & SK however is only 40 seats. The Tories seem to be back into their historic stature as a Western & rural party and that will not get you into Ottawa. In an increasingly urban nation, that is not the direction the Tories should be aiming for.


As for the NDP, it's glimmer of hope of becoming government due to it's one time surge in Quebec is over. They are retrenching into their 3rd party norm and will only be relevant in BC, SWO, and Northern Ontario with a few other scattered seats in NS and Manitoba. All the Liberals need now is for Singh to win Burnaby South to finally secure his leadership thru 2019 so they can get those many NDP voters who he turns off. Interesting to note how the Liberals have invested next to nothing in the by-election hoping for a Singh victory.

[MonctonRad]

It's interesting that the only part of Canada (other than BC) where the Greens poll into the double digits is Atlantic Canada.

They are stronger out here than a lot of people think. There are GRN MLAs in both NB and PE. The Greens in fact are currently the most popular party provincially on PEI and there is a very real chance in the next election that the Greens might actually form government on the island province.

[Vixx]

The main question right now is whether or not Bernier's party will have any sort of impact on the overall numbers. Right now, its too early to tell and who knows, what if he does indeed attract some dazed Liberal and NDP voters, that would be interesting.

If there's little impact, then I think either the Con's or Liberals will get a minority. I'm of the opinion that Ford won't be making Ontarians eager to vote for the federal Liberals but we all know that whoever Ontario votes provincially is an accurate predictor of who's in office in Ottawa.

[Loco101]

Source link: http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-s...ndp-well-back/

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Phil McAvity

Were you not aware that Alberta has an NDP government for the first time in it's history?

I wouldn't normally side with whatnext, but I think your comment proves his point. Albertans will only vote by party line, for conservatives, and are completely incapable of seeing politics in any other way. It took premiers flying around their children in government jets and 40 years of arrogance for them to finally vote in someone else (but definitely not the liberals!) one time.

[Loco101]

The federal Liberals are back in majority territory according to recent polls. Another factor is that the Trudeau government's approval rating is quite high.

[osmo]

Liberals have no competition, Trudeau will not get to form Government only if something monumentally bad happens of this NAFTA mess completely explodes (IMO PM should get sacked if this does indeed go south and not end well - Trade is the PMs Cabinet's job to make that Policy and agreements made). One could think that polls would be more neutral if people could see an alternative. Presently, there is not even a party to 'close your nose and mark down your vote' type of leader candidate as both the NDP and CONs have weak (IMO) leadership at the moment that won't carry them outside traditionally locked down ridings.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by osmo

Liberals have no competition, Trudeau will not get to form Government only if something monumentally bad happens of this NAFTA mess completely explodes (IMO PM should get sacked if this does indeed go south and not end well - Trade is the PMs Cabinet's job to make that Policy and agreements made). One could think that polls would be more neutral if people could see an alternative. Presently, there is not even a party to 'close your nose and mark down your vote' type of leader candidate as both the NDP and CONs have weak (IMO) leadership at the moment that won't carry them outside traditionally locked down ridings.

That's possible, or it could have the opposite effect as Canadians rally round the flag in the face of the threat from the bullies to the south (and blah, blah, blah).

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

That's possible, or it could have the opposite effect as Canadians rally round the flag in the face of the threat from the bullies to the south (and blah, blah, blah).

I could absolutely see this. There's nothing that will make people rally around their flag like an existential external threat, and bully Americans led by that evil cad Trump would certainly fill the bill.

In fact, in some ways, it serves JT's interest to appear to have fought the good fight and then walk away from NAFTA with his head held high. The next election could be Trudeau vs Trump rather than Trudeau vs Scheer, and in such a scenario a Trudeau landslide would be guaranteed.

[ssiguy]

I agree with KWoldtimer as well.

I think Canadians will rally around the flag and standing up to the Americans has always played well in Canada. If the talks didn't succeed and Obama was in office then Trudeau would pay a very heavy price but not with a lunatic like Trump who is, as the poll shows, universally detested by Canadians. Canadians will not blame Trudeau for inability to reach a deal with a highly irrational individual and I Trudeau's view that we will not take a lousy deal just for the sake of getting one is shared by the population.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I agree with KWoldtimer as well.

I think Canadians will rally around the flag and standing up to the Americans has always played well in Canada. If the talks didn't succeed and Obama was in office then Trudeau would pay a very heavy price but not with a lunatic like Trump who is, as the poll shows, universally detested by Canadians. Canadians will not blame Trudeau for inability to reach a deal with a highly irrational individual and I Trudeau's view that we will not take a lousy deal just for the sake of getting one is shared by the population.

Some will. If agreement is reached, some will blame him for it not being a good enough agreement. All part of the "noise"...

I still think that something will be agreed to, although I think any announcements would come only sometime after the Quebec election (ie not by the arbitrary U.S. deadline of 30Sep).

[240glt]

Alberta and SK will be swept by the Conservatives with an exception of a few urban seats while they will probably get all of rural Manitoba but possibly none in Winnipeg. A sweep in Alberta & SK however is only 40 seats.

Liberal MP Sohi is popular in Mill Woods, I could see him retaining his seat. Liberals will also probably hold onto their Edmonton Centre seat. Not sure about Hehr in Calgary. Linda Duncan, the only NDP MP in Alberta is not running next election, word around the camp fire is that Edmonton's mayor will jump ship to federal politics and will run in that riding as he's getting close to his expiration date as mayor, so depends if he runs as a liberal or conservative, but he'll be popular in that riding so if he runs he wins regardless of which party banner he runs under