Broadway Corridor (Post Office Redevelopment) | Proposed

[MarkDaMan]

Fun! I hope Kaven and others submit bids that push the arbitrary height limits. With no major commercial flight patterns over the 405 loop, I'd like to see incentive based height allowances that in some cases can be unlimited throughout downtown.

[johnliu]

Could orient this to frame mt hood

https://blog.kenkaminesky.com/wp-content...ense-La-Grande-Arche-de-la-Defense-1.jpg

[innovativethinking]

Wow

Our mayor did say he’s looking for “bold and iconic” and this certainly qualifies for one

It’s about time we are starting to get talks like this. I told you guys for a long time with the way our city is growing and this so called building boom happening, proposals like this should be coming. It makes sense.

“Bold and iconic” I don’t see why the city doesn’t like this

[2oh1]

That's a gorgeous concept, but I can't imagine how they'd be able to get a pair of towers like that to pencil out. Adding 5 million square feet for retail, office, hotel rooms, apartments or condos. Just thinking about it logically raises two obvious questions.

#1: How much would they have to charge for the space?

#2: Could they sell and/or lease that much space, especially when you consider the rest of the available space that would be hitting the market at the same time, including a considerable amount at this same Post Office redevelopment site that would be priced significantly lower...?

It's a gorgeous concept, but I don't see it happening unless they've already got a corporate tenant that wants the vast majority of the space, which doesn't appear to be the case.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by 2oh1

I don't see it happening unless they've already got a corporate tenant that wants the vast majority of the space, which doesn't appear to be the case.

A tenant? I don't see any evidence that they even have a client.

[subterranean]

Aw hell no. 970, sure. But that is a monstrosity.

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

A tenant? I don't see any evidence that they even have a client.

My thoughts exactly. Their proposal says as much, as they list potential uses that could be anything.

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by innovativethinking

“Bold and iconic” I don’t see why the city doesn’t like this

In the end, it won't be about the city "liking it." It'll be about real world things, a few of which I mentioned above.

It's a shame costs dramatically increase with height, but they do, and those costs have to be recouped. The real world isn't just about "Ooh, look how cool that tall tower is!" There real world is about things like budgets. Costs. Supply and demand.

Is there demand for an additional five million square feet of retail, office and residential space? It's easy to say yes, but... is there?

Is there demand for an additional five million square feet of retail, office and residential space in addition to the rest of what will be built in the Post Office site, and elsewhere in the Pearl, and in the Conway blocks, and in inner SE, and elsewhere throughout downtown, etc?

Is there demand for five million square feet of retail, office and residential space if construction costs mean it'll be priced higher than anything else in the entire city probably will?

I think this proposal looks amazing.
I think there's almost no chance it'll get built.

It's not about those mean people who don't like it. That's not how the world works.

It's about math.

Even if they can get the regulations changed in order to build that high (I hope they can, but that's definitely an if)... even if they can, they have to sell the space in whatever they build. At the costs that come with those heights, they probably have to get a lot of it sold/leased/etc before any bank will finance it... and they're likely to price themselves out of what the market will bear. That's if there isn't a recession before they'd break ground. With what's going on in D.C. these days, I'd bet on a recession coming sooner than later.

I think this is awesome, but I don't see it happening.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by 2oh1

In the end, it won't be about the city "liking it." It'll be about real world things, a few of which I mentioned above.

It's a shame costs dramatically increase with height, but they do, and those costs have to be recouped. The real world isn't just about "Ooh, look how cool that tall tower is!" There real world is about things like budgets. Costs. Supply and demand.

Is there demand for an additional five million square feet of retail, office and residential space? It's easy to say yes, but... is there?

Is there demand for an additional five million square feet of retail, office and residential space in addition to the rest of what will be built in the Post Office site, and elsewhere in the Pearl, and in the Conway blocks, and in inner SE, and elsewhere throughout downtown, etc?

Is there demand for five million square feet of retail, office and residential space if construction costs mean it'll be priced higher than anything else in the entire city probably will?

I think this proposal looks amazing.
I think there's almost no chance it'll get built.

It's not about those mean people who don't like it. That's not how the world works.

It's about math.

Even if they can get the regulations changed in order to build that high (I hope they can, but that's definitely an if)... even if they can, they have to sell the space in whatever they build. At the costs that come with those heights, they probably have to get a lot of it sold/leased/etc before any bank will finance it... and they're likely to price themselves out of what the market will bear. That's if there isn't a recession before they'd break ground. With what's going on in D.C. these days, I'd bet on a recession coming sooner than later.

I think this is awesome, but I don't see it happening.

Obviously this is nothing more than architects messing around with their rendering program, but it does bring up a valid point and great exercise. I think it is important for architects to do proposals like this without a client, it is a great way to show the city and public what is possible for a site like this as well as stimulate developers that might be interested in a project scale like this.

I do think the post office site should go bold, I have always looked at that site to be a sort of Rockefeller dream site. I also think it is the best possible site for a new tallest in Portland or at least a #3 500footer (though 650-750ft would be ideal.)

All your points go along with this, what it looks like and how tall it is doesn't matter as much as will something like this pencil out. I honestly couldn't say, but then again with Trump in the White House, it is a pure gamble if anything will be left of this country in four years, so who knows. I hope this does encourage other architects to start brainstorming ideas because it wouldn't hurt, and it would be nice to see local architects flex some design muscles.

[Leo]

Well, that looks like fun, but talk about something that is completely out of scale with the surrounding neighborhood! :-P What would you even fill that building with? I like many of Kaven's projects, but have they even built anything more than a few stories tall?

[innovativethinking]

To the folks whose saying “math” I understand what you mean but obviously these firms wouldn’t waste their time with these proposals if they didn’t think the math would pencil out. Kaven has to know something to feel confident to propose this.

I know it’s hard to believe because this is Portland after all but with the numbers favoring this city there’s no reason why a true skyscraper boom shouldn’t be happening here.

I’m not talking these little stubby building boom we are having, with our favorable math numbers happening any other city would be building up.

This city hates sprawl right? So where the hell do they think everbody is going to live? Build up! Kaven knows what their doing

[MarkDaMan]

Originally Posted by innovativethinking

To the folks whose saying “math” I understand what you mean but obviously these firms wouldn’t waste their time with these proposals if they didn’t think the math would pencil out. Kaven has to know something to feel confident to propose this.

I know it’s hard to believe because this is Portland after all but with the numbers favoring this city there’s no reason why a true skyscraper boom shouldn’t be happening here.

I’m not talking these little stubby building boom we are having, with our favorable math numbers happening any other city would be building up.

This city hates sprawl right? So where the hell do they think everbody is going to live? Build up! Kaven knows what their doing

With a bottle of wine and a rendering program I could come up with an eye shocking design as well. I think you are overestimating the time and thought put into what I agree is a sexy rendering.

[Leo]

Originally Posted by innovativethinking

To the folks whose saying “math” I understand what you mean but obviously these firms wouldn’t waste their time with these proposals if they didn’t think the math would pencil out. Kaven has to know something to feel confident to propose this.

I know it’s hard to believe because this is Portland after all but with the numbers favoring this city there’s no reason why a true skyscraper boom shouldn’t be happening here.

I’m not talking these little stubby building boom we are having, with our favorable math numbers happening any other city would be building up.

This city hates sprawl right? So where the hell do they think everbody is going to live? Build up! Kaven knows what their doing

This is far from obvious to me.

First of all, to assume that every pitch must be realistic because the company “must know what they’re doing” is ludicrous. Even competent companies pitch dumb ideas. And companies go bankrupt every day; there’s no reason to assume that every company is a competet one. AFAIK, Kaven hasn’t built anything over a few stories tall- why would you trust that they know what they’re doing when it comes to a 1000-foot tall building? You might as well trust Ferrari to build you a reliable economy car.

Whether or not a project gets pitched depends on many things, including opportunity cost. If your whole company is busy with lined-up projects, the opportunity cost is high. If you have a bunch of people with nothing to do, the opportunity cost is low.

The “math” isn’t just arithmetic. It also includes the probablity of success, the payoff for success, and the cost of failure. It makes sense to swing for the fence even if it doesn’t pay off. You might choose to do it for the sheer publicity of it.

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by innovativethinking

with our favorable math numbers happening any other city would be building up.

This shows that you just don't understand the basics of how the world works.

Let's say you propose a 950 foot tower. You're increasing the costs of everything that the tower will be used for.

A hotel? They're going to have to charge more for the rooms than competing hotels. Do you understand this?

Condos? They're going to have to price them a lot higher than other condos in town. Do you understand this?

Office space? They're going to have to lease the space for a lot more per square foot than other high end office space in town. Do you understand?

Ooh, but it's such a super cool mega awesome tower!

Right, but if it's a hotel, will people be willing to pay higher than prices at the downtown Hilton on Broadway to stay there?

Or, if it's condos, are there enough millionaires willing to buy those condos? And is it even right to build luxury housing for millionaires when there's a terrible housing crunch for the middle class and especially for the working class?

Or, if it's a tower for office space, are there enough companies willing to spend what would probably be Portland's highest rent on 2 million to 2 and a half million square feet of office space? And what if there's a lot of other office space being built nearby at lower costs, and thus leasing at lower costs?

Dude. This is like economics 101 here. We're talking entry level stuff. This is so basic, it's the kind of thing even a high school kid should understand. It's like how if you build a store out in the middle of nowhere, the lease will be cheap, but if you want to put that same size store in the heart of the city the lease would be sky high.

That's grade school economics. I'd expect a high school kid to know that, and I'd expect a middle schooler to be able to understand it once it's explained.

Don't get me wrong here. I love that pretty picture of a skyscraper as much as anybody else. But it's just that: a pretty picture. Geez, all you have to do is look at it and you can tell it's not even to scale. Follow the right hand lines of the tower to the left to the street level. Note how far off the angle is compared to the line of trees when they meet.

It's a pretty picture - a very pretty picture - but that's all it is.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by 2oh1

This shows that you just don't understand the basics of how the world works.

Let's say you propose a 950 foot tower. You're increasing the costs of everything that the tower will be used for.

A hotel? They're going to have to charge more for the rooms than competing hotels. Do you understand this?

Condos? They're going to have to price them a lot higher than other condos in town. Do you understand this?

Office space? They're going to have to lease the space for a lot more per square foot than other high end office space in town. Do you understand?

Ooh, but it's such a super cool mega awesome tower!

Right, but if it's a hotel, will people be willing to pay higher than prices at the downtown Hilton on Broadway to stay there?

Or, if it's condos, are there enough millionaires willing to buy those condos? And is it even right to build luxury housing for millionaires when there's a terrible housing crunch for the middle class and especially for the working class?

Or, if it's a tower for office space, are there enough companies willing to spend what would probably be Portland's highest rent on 2 million to 2 and a half million square feet of office space? And what if there's a lot of other office space being built nearby at lower costs, and thus leasing at lower costs?

Dude. This is like economics 101 here. We're talking entry level stuff. This is so basic, it's the kind of thing even a high school kid should understand. It's like how if you build a store out in the middle of nowhere, the lease will be cheap, but if you want to put that same size store in the heart of the city the lease would be sky high.

That's grade school economics. I'd expect a high school kid to know that, and I'd expect a middle schooler to be able to understand it once it's explained.

Don't get me wrong here. I love that pretty picture of a skyscraper as much as anybody else. But it's just that: a pretty picture. Geez, all you have to do is look at it and you can tell it's not even to scale. Follow the right hand lines of the tower to the left to the street level. Note how far off the angle is compared to the line of trees when they meet.

It's a pretty picture - a very pretty picture - but that's all it is.

Anything that could possibly become a new tallest in Portland will do so by being a mixed use building. That is the only way I could really see one pencil out.

[mhays]

The high cost point is important.

A second factor is that they probably have only a vague sense about cost in today's prices. Why? Because it's purely a concept, with only a vague sense about height and potential uses, and none the trillions of details figured out, including big ones like floor count and structure type. Also architects typically don't get into cost estimating, particularly small firms on big jobs. Even experienced developers are often off by double-digit percentages well into design.

A third factor is that "today's prices" are very different from the prices whenever they build this, which would be 2019 at earliest.

[johnliu]

Originally Posted by mhays

The high cost point is important.

A second factor is that they probably have only a vague sense about cost in today's prices. Why? Because it's purely a concept, with only a vague sense about height and potential uses, and none the trillions of details figured out, including big ones like floor count and structure type. Also architects typically don't get into cost estimating, particularly small firms on big jobs. Even experienced developers are often off by double-digit percentages well into design.

A third factor is that "today's prices" are very different from the prices whenever they build this, which would be 2019 at earliest.

Seems like basically a publicity stunt.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by johnliu

Seems like basically a publicity stunt.

Technically it is, they get to throw out a free idea of what is possible for that site while getting some free publicity. In reality this is something all architecture firms should be doing because it is important for them to cause the average people to think about design and the what ifs.

[58rhodes]

nice concept--but........

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by 58rhodes

nice concept--but........

Plastic surgery?

Oh, wait... that's two Ts (a concept-butt). BA-DA-BING!

Seriously though, I agree with johnliu. This is a publicity stunt, and it seems to be working. They whipped up a fun image, sent it to the press, and they've gotten free publicity. KGW did a fluff piece on it during the 5 o'clock news tonight. They're definitely getting some free publicity.