City Murder Rates

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am Canadian and to us and most people in western democracies, a murder rate of over 10 per 100,000 people is not "low".

Even in the context of the US, a low murder rate is in the 3-4-5 per 100,000 range. Which is where NYC is at.

Places like St. Louis and Baltimore shouldn't be the barometer for what a low murder rate is.

In the western developed world, a homicide rate of 1-2 per 100,000 is considered good, average or "low".

As for other crime in Portland, I don't know what the rate is but although property crime can be a serious problem in cities, violent crime and especially are the biggest indicators of safety.

I just love it when people say "Sure murders are skyrocketing in the city, but on the bright side bicycle theft is way down..."

Yeah, people say it's just "gang members killing each other" or it's only "poor young males".

Well, if that's a valid excuse, every city in the world, even the most violent ones, could use this card, because homicides is highly centered in those groups everywhere.

Law and order must work for everybody, not only for the privileged.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Yeah, people say it's just "gang members killing each other" or it's only "poor young males".

Well, if that's a valid excuse, every city in the world, even the most violent ones, could use this card, because homicides is highly centered in those groups everywhere.

Law and order must work for everybody, not only for the privileged.

Yeah, it's a good thing all gangsters always have advanced firearms training so that they never shoot innocent people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxing_Day_shooting

[Acajack]

Also, while I won't weep for a gangbanger that gets killed, they all have mothers, fathers, little brothers, little sisters, children, etc. that are traumatized by their violent death.

Every gang-related murder creates a substantial amount of family and community trauma.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Yeah, people say it's just "gang members killing each other" or it's only "poor young males".

I think when most people say things along those lines it's more about compartmentalization rather than justification.

If people didn't compartmentalize like that, then chicago's population would be dropping like a boulder thrown off the top of the Sears Tower.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Also, while I won't weep for a gangbanger that gets killed, they all have mothers, fathers, little brothers, little sisters, children, etc. that are traumatized by their violent death.

Every gang-related murder creates a substantial amount of family and community trauma.

And it goes beyond our feelings towards them. Societies aim to be always more peaceful, and homicides, regardless who are the victims, are violence.

Obviously strategies to prevent crime will change depending on the type of crime or the place, but reduce crimes should be the goal of every society.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I think when most people say things along those lines, it's more about compartmentalization rather than justification.

If people didn't compartmentalize like that, then chicago's population would be dropping like a boulder thrown off the top of the Sears tower.

Indeed. I often phrase this like that.

But some people do it to justify, or to present their places in a better light, or because they really don't care about rough neighbours, or due the anti-police feeling.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by Yuri

That was the late 1990’s, early 2000’s. Everybody gave credit to Giuliani and NYC dramatic reduction on crimes were attributed to him.

But as I said, people here are not aware of Giuliani or barely took notice crime fell a lot in the past 20 years. It’s a kind of long-term trend that goes unnoticed.

nope.

no they didn't.

i mean not "everybody," that is.

it was also well known at the time crime rates and unemployment fell all over the country due to the improved late 'go go nineties' economy.

being the biggest city and media capital, guiliani just tried to take his credit.



wiki on that topic:

However, other studies do not find a cause and effect relationship between the adoption of such policies and decreases in crime. The decrease may have been part of a broader trend across the United States. Other cities also experienced less crime, even though they had different police policies. Other factors, such as the 39% drop in New York City's unemployment rate, could also explain the decrease reported by Kelling and Sousa.

i would add another big factor was the end of the crack cocaine era.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I think when most people say things along those lines it's more about compartmentalization rather than justification.

If people didn't compartmentalize like that, then chicago's population would be dropping like a boulder thrown off the top of the Sears Tower.

I fully understand the need to do this. It's an essential coping and survival mechanism.

It's definitely true that in most large cities with high murder rates it's concentrated in certain areas.

Which of course means that the neighbourhood rate is absolutely frightening in areas where murders tend to happen.

Some people minimize this as if these parts of the city don't matter, though to your credit you don't do that.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Which of course means that the neighbourhood rate is absolutely frightening in areas where murders tend to happen.

indeed.

over the past 3 full years ('18, '19, '20), the Austin neighborhood on the chicago's far west side has had an average annual murder rate of 64 per 100K.

on the other hand, my neighborhood of Lincoln Square on the far northside of the city has had an average annual murder rate of 1.7 per 100K.

compartmentalization is very natural when these kinds of gruesome stats are so WILDLY different from neighborhood to neighborhood.

if i was raising my family in Austin instead of Lincoln Square, i sure as shit would be thinking about getting the hell outta dodge too.




and again, none of the above is to excuse the violence, or pretend that it doesn't matter, or to say that it isn't a HUGE ongoing 6-decade long crisis in chicago (and in so many other US cities, sadly).

the violence levels in chicago are inexcusable, those neighborhoods besieged by the worst of it do matter, and it is a slow-burn crisis for the city.

but it is only natural to get numb to it to a degree, especially when it's been going on for 6 freaking decades and 95% of it happens "over by there, not here".

[Steely Dan]

a timely article from today's Sun-Times with a city shooting map.

As violent crime soars in Chicago, ‘safety gap’ among neighborhoods widens

West Garfield Park, the city’s most dangerous community area, has seen a rate of shootings nearly 20 times higher than downtown, a Sun-Times analysis finds. The gap is even higher with six other police districts on the North Side.

By Andy Grimm
Oct 28, 2021, 10:25pm CDT


Don’t feel safe downtown? Try heading to West Garfield Park.

The 16 police beats that cover most of the greater downtown area have seen a total of 77 shootings so far this year, tripling the rate of shootings compared to 2019 and the biggest percentage increase in shootings in the city, a Sun-Times analysis has found.

But that total isn’t all that far from the total of 62 shootings in a single, eight-by-five block section of West Garfield Park that comprises the city’s single most-violent beat.

West Garfield Park, the city’s most dangerous community area, has experienced a per capita rate of shootings nearly 20 times higher than downtown, according to the Sun-Times analysis of city data.

.............

So far this year, the murder rate in the seven most dangerous police districts rose to a three-decade high of nearly 100 homicides per 100,000 residents — 30 times higher than the rate in the safest seven districts, where the rate fell to fewer than four per 100,000, according to an analysis by the University of Chicago Crime Lab.

full article: https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2...side-shootings



EDIT:

i didn't realize the map would be so freaking huge, click the link above to see the map embedded in the article

[Yuri]

What's that dark place West? I thought it was only the South the most problematic area.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

What's that dark place West?

that's garfield park, as referenced in the article.

pound for pound, it might just be the most violent neighborhood in the developed world.

Originally Posted by Yuri

I thought it was only the South the most problematic area.

well, that's certainly a commonly held perception by many outsiders, but the south side is HUGE and has some extremely violent areas and many others that aren't nearly so.

the two neighborhoods that stand out the most for violence are garfield park on the west side and englewood on the south side, or going by the police districts on the map in the article, the 11th and the 7th districts.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

indeed.

over the past 3 full years ('18, '19, '20), the Austin neighborhood on the chicago's far west side has had an average annual murder rate of 64 per 100K.

on the other hand, my neighborhood of Lincoln Square on the far northside of the city has had an average annual murder rate of 1.7 per 100K.

compartmentalization is very natural when these kinds of gruesome stats are so WILDLY different from neighborhood to neighborhood.

if i was raising my family in Austin instead of Lincoln Square, i sure as shit would be thinking about getting the hell outta dodge too.




and again, none of the above is to excuse the violence, or pretend that it doesn't matter, or to say that it isn't a HUGE ongoing 6-decade long crisis in chicago (and in so many other US cities, sadly).

the violence levels in chicago are inexcusable, those neighborhoods besieged by the worst of it do matter, and it is a slow-burn crisis for the city.

but it is only natural to get numb to it to a degree, especially when it's been going on for 6 freaking decades and 95% of it happens "over by there, not here".

Even more insane is that the 7.7 zone literally borders the 0.6 and 1.1 zones. I realize these are fairly large districts with large populations, but still...

[BG918]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even more insane is that the 7.7 zone literally borders the 0.6 and 1.1 zones. I realize these are fairly large districts with large populations, but still...

Typically gang and drug related homicides are very localized in particular neighborhoods. In some cities this is more extreme than others, Chicago being one of them

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by BG918

Typically gang and drug related homicides are very localized in particular neighborhoods. In some cities this is more extreme than others, Chicago being one of them

of course, the more cynical take on this is that the powers that be "allow" these gang-controlled open air drug markets to exist in the worst neighborhoods as part of a "containment strategy".

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

No thanks, we already have an excessive force police problem in the US, we dont need to import the high numbers of extra judicial killings committed by Brazilian police.

love when people are like “we need to kill all criminals” and i imagine they look like this.


media3.giphy.com

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

of course, the more cynical take on this is that the powers that be "allow" these gang-controlled open air drug markets to exist in the worst neighborhoods as part of a "containment strategy".

european cities do this but they don’t have the body count.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

european cities do this but they don’t have the body count.

they might if they lived right next door to indiana

[Centropolis]

used to get drunk and talk to the gang members and pushers on my old street(s) that worked the corners and they just said, to paraphrase “they’re going to have to bring in the army, this feels like our job like you have a job. i hate this shit.”

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

they might if they lived right next door to indiana

or had cities in missouri lol.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

used to get drunk and talk to the gang members and pushers on my old street(s) that worked the corners and they just said, to paraphrase “they’re going to have to bring in the army, this feels like our job like you have a job. i hate this shit.”

i can see that. a most vicious self-perpetuating cycle.

what would i be doing right now, at this exact moment in time, if i had been born to a poor black single mother addict in Englewood 45 years ago instead of into a wonderfully stable white upper middle class family in Wilmette?

probably not farting away a friday afternoon on SSP.