DENVER | Main Development Thread #6 - Page 156

bobg · #**3101** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 3:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Will Metro Denver (MSA) population be over 5 million by 2045?

Earlier I read about some population projections for Texas carried by the various city business journals.

"Texas to see explosive growth: Population to double by 2050"
Mar 7, 2015, by Michael Theis - Digital Editor- Austin Business Journal

A followup article carried this headline:

"Map: Texas suburbs, not cities, to grow the fastest by 2050; one Central Texas county will top them all"
Mar 9, 2015, Michael Theis - Digital Editor- Austin Business Journal

Of course Texas has been on a tear over the last 15 years or so and given how much it's already grown that's an impressive growth projection.

Growing off a much smaller base could Denver experience a similar percentage growth to the metro areas in Texas? How much of a stretch is it to suggest that Metro Denver could add another 750,000 people by the end of 2025?

That would mean a lot of auto sales etc. etc.

Taking a cue from bunt I threw this together from CO state demographer data:

The furthest CO goes for forecasts is 2040 (I included this years projection and each census year projection). As we all know projections that go out that far are inherently less reliable, but it looks like 5 million by 2045 is pushing it based on current forecasts.

rds70 · #**3102** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 3:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobg

Taking a cue from bunt I threw this together from CO state demographer data:

The furthest CO goes for forecasts is 2040 (I included this years projection and each census year projection). As we all know projections that go out that far are inherently less reliable, but it looks like 5 million by 2045 is pushing it based on current forecasts.

If you consider the Denver CSA, the number is much closer to 5 million by 2040. Including Weld and Boulder counties (as the Census Bureau does), the 2040 population is projected to be 4,778,180.

bobg · #**3103** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 4:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rds70

If you consider the Denver CSA, the number is much closer to 5 million by 2040. Including Weld and Boulder counties (as the Census Bureau does), the 2040 population is projected to be 4,778,180.

Yes with CSA that chart looks a little different:

Either way it doesn't look like the demographer thinks we will grow at a pace to double the population in either census defined area by 2045 or 50.

DownhomeDenver · #**3104** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 4:25 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cirrus

How's the Belleview TOD looking these days? Anything there? It looks like a construction site on google maps.

It's moving along. One apartment building already complete. Second one started a couple of months ago. And the office tower at Belleview and Quebec broke ground too.

DownhomeDenver · #**3105** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 4:27 PM**

Hey for those who were wondering about 7th and Sherman, RDS posted a new rendering on his site Denver-Cityscape.com

The Dirt · #**3106** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 5:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denver

Just don't tell anyone from Boulder that their city is about to grow...

It's not. 90% of the growth is probably in Longmont and Erie.

TakeFive · #**3107** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 5:17 PM**

DownhomeDenver... Nice find. I see that's a Red Peak Properties project. Try saying that alliteration a couple of times.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cirrus

This begs a question: It seems to me the main thing holding back growth of much larger scale TODs in the Denver suburbs (aside from NIMBYism) has been that downtown still had so many empty lots that it was sucking up all the demand for urban development. Maybe that's changing now.

Denver could use a development akin to Tyson's Corner, eh?

Not near term maybe but down the road there's plenty of opportunity for denser redevelopment within the Tech Center, especially on the Greenwood Village, west side of I-25. The area south of Belleview and also south of Orchard could easily provide that opportunity. Even on the east side south of Belleview you could see that happening. North of Belleview there's even room for some "infill."

mr1138 · #**3108** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 5:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dirt

It's not. 90% of the growth is probably in Longmont and Erie.

This is absolutely true. Don't forget Lafayette and Louisville too. Boulder estimates that it's population cap under existing zoning and land use allowances is around 150,000.

Of course, the anti-growth camp thinks this is too much, and Boulder should impose a cap right now at the current population. The other side thinks this is too small and parts of town should be up-zoned to increase that number to 200-250,000. My biggest question is exactly how fast that 150,000 number will be reached. Boulder can slow down that growth to some extent with things like planning board call-ups, but largely the pace of growth is up to the market. And when 150,000 is reached, is that really where it stops? or will there be economic or other pressures to go ahead and up-zone, or tap into Boulder's mysterious "planning reserve" area of open space?

RyanD · #**3109** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 7:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Denver could use a development akin to Tyson's Corner, eh?

I think Cherry Creek is our Tyson's Corner equivalent. They're really doing an awesome job over there. 1st Avenue is starting to look pretty hot hot hot in terms of urban-ness.

Cirrus · #**3110** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 7:41 PM**

You don't want Tysons Corner. Tysons Corner is the Tech Center equivalent, but if Park Meadows Mall were smack in its center rather than miles away, and if the light rail were indeed in an el down Ulster Street. It's not really anything like Cherry Creek at all (except maybe Colorado Blvd if you want to call that Cherry Creek). There's no downtown; it has a totally suburban history. Anyway, it's a sort of informative model for the Tech Center in theory, but it's a terrible model for I-25/Broadway or any other TOD sites. Denver can do better.

If you want to know the DC equivalents to Cherry Creek, or better TOD models, I'll be happy to share. But I also don't want to hijack the thread with a bunch of DC stuff.

fleury · #**3111** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 7:43 PM**

I'm sure many of you already know about this site...and come to think of it I just might have come across it in this forum - but thought I'd post a link. Great photo updates! (and updated often)

http://denverurbanreview.com/

DenverPoke · #**3112** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 8:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by fleury

I'm sure many of you already know about this site...and come to think of it I just might have come across it in this forum - but thought I'd post a link. Great photo updates! (and updated often)

http://denverurbanreview.com/

Thanks for the link. That rendering of the Hilton Garden Inn is quite a bit different than the one released earlier. I liked the original significantly better.

TakeFive · #**3113** Posted **Mar 11, 2015, 8:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cirrus

You don't want Tysons Corner. Tysons Corner is the Tech Center equivalent, but if Park Meadows Mall were smack in its center rather than miles away, and if the light rail were indeed in an el down Ulster Street.

There's no downtown; it has a totally suburban history. Anyway, it's a sort of informative model for the Tech Center in theory, but it's a terrible model for I-25/Broadway or any other TOD sites. Denver can do better.

One of the disadvantages to the Tech Ctr so far as becoming a 2nd downtown I'd guess is that west of I-25 all the way to Broadway (mostly) and from roughly Orchard all the way up to Hampden is low density higher end housing.

It's a similar story on the east side of I-25 though the density is better and there is a better variety of price points even if mostly upscale. Then you run into the Cherry Creek Dam land so there's no access to the east between I-225 and Arapahoe Road.

Although if the older/lower density parts of the business parks were to be redeveloped there is a lot of land that could include high density residential as well as office.

EngiNerd · #**3114** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 12:41 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TakeFive

One of the disadvantages to the Tech Ctr so far as becoming a 2nd downtown I'd guess is that west of I-25 all the way to Broadway (mostly) and from roughly Orchard all the way up to Hampden is low density higher end housing.

It's a similar story on the east side of I-25 though the density is better and there is a better variety of price points even if mostly upscale. Then you run into the Cherry Creek Dam land so there's no access to the east between I-225 and Arapahoe Road.

Although if the older/lower density parts of the business parks were to be redeveloped there is a lot of land that could include high density residential as well as office.

Little by little that is being done in the DTC (the Belleview/Ulster apt. development being the most recent), but there is so much open space in the office park with the green belts, parking oceans, etc. that it will take a long time to ever get what anyone would consider dense.

Cirrus · #**3115** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 5:15 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TakeFive

One of the disadvantages to the Tech Ctr so far as becoming a 2nd downtown I'd guess is that west of I-25 all the way to Broadway (mostly) and from roughly Orchard all the way up to Hampden is low density higher end housing.

That's not an accident. Tysons Corner is the same. The corporate executives who get to decide where to locate their offices intentionally decided to put them near their homes so they'd have an easy commute.

Of course, that just made traffic worse for everyone else, in any number of ways.

mishko27 · #**3116** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 7:32 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cirrus

How's the Belleview TOD looking these days? Anything there? It looks like a construction site on google maps.

It's actually rather behind the schedule - the retails is not set to open until the summer, even though it was said to open by the end of February. The are cleaning out the remains of the Conoco from the One Belleview site and they have posted new boards on the original One Belleview site (north of Union) saying it can be developed to one's liking... So, if anyone has few dozen millions, there you go!

TakeFive · #**3117** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 7:34 AM**

Get em while they're Hot

Obviously the residential market remains tight. Interest rates remain low but there are rumors that could change.

Most material input costs have either fallen or risen only slightly. My understanding was that many construction workers had gravitated to oil & gas since the pay was better. Presumably that is now reversing.

Aside from Belmar and projects that could be deemed TOD's there seems to be little to no demand for building apartments in the suburbs.

Therefor... no reason why central Denver won't see a continued active pipeline of projects this year. While there is still some potential for negative fallout from oil & gas downtown, it is still unknown and ill-defined.

So long as financing is readily available developers and builders will build.

rds70 · #**3118** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 2:14 PM**

Lots of construction folks at the 1144 15th Street site this morning. There were several Coggins and Sons vehicles. They will be doing the excavation and shoring. It looks like initial construction may be imminent.

Edit: It looks like the shoring and excavation permit has been issued.

wong21fr · #**3119** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 2:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rds70

Lots of construction folks at the 1144 15th Street site this morning. There were several Coggins and Sons vehicles. They will be doing the excavation and shoring. It looks like initial construction may be imminent.

Edit: It looks like the shoring and excavation permit has been issued.

Oh sweet Jesus, that's awesome. I think this might warrant a mini-orgasm as this is the largest office project to be built in Denver, and the Metro Area, in quite some time.

Bunt, do you concur?

DownhomeDenver · #**3120** Posted **Mar 12, 2015, 2:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Oh sweet Jesus, that's awesome. I think this might warrant a mini-orgasm as this is the largest office project to be built in Denver, and the Metro Area, in quite some time.

Bunt, do you concur?

Holy christ someone hand me a tissue...or a sock...a sock works too.

Ewwwwww LOL