CHICAGO | General Discussions

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by twister244

That is super interesting...... Why is Denver at the top of the list? Maybe there's more crossover than I was aware of. I spent five years there, but never got a strong Chicago vibe from people.

Number looks out of line enough to be an anomaly. Could get a better idea if cmparing to past data or looking at the sample size. Maybe a business move (e.g., Molson moved people at some point) would skew numbers but seemingly not to that degree unless the sample is small and unrepresentative.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by VKChaz

Number looks out of line enough to be an anomaly. Could get a better idea if cmparing to past data or looking at the sample size. Maybe a business move (e.g., Molson moved people at some point) would skew numbers but seemingly not to that degree unless the sample is small and unrepresentative.

The number looks perfectly reasonable in the national context.

Philadelphia—> NYC: 11.8%
Boston —> NYC: 11.7%
Seattle —> LA: 8.9%
LA —> Dallas: 15.9%

People tend to disproportionately look for homes in nearby metros. Obviously Redfin does not track people moving for college, moving from overseas, or people who already have family contacts.

But the Chicago numbers are basically saying that if 1000 people were searching for Chicago real estate, 880 already live in Illinois and 120 live outside the state. Of those 120 looking, about 11-12 are from Denver.

That’s intuitive. Denver is close and often more expensive for the Redfin demographic than Chicago

[marothisu]

Yeah its really not out of the ordinary and it's relative to how many search anyway. More people in NYC may have moved to Chicago versus Denver but the Denver pct could still be larger.

Also yeah there's a lot of CO plates here now LOL I think l there's definite truth to it.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The number looks perfectly reasonable in the national context.

Philadelphia—> NYC: 11.8%
Boston —> NYC: 11.7%
Seattle —> LA: 8.9%
LA —> Dallas: 15.9%

People tend to disproportionately look for homes in nearby metros. Obviously Redfin does not track people moving for college, moving from overseas, or people who already have family contacts.

But the Chicago numbers are basically saying that if 1000 people were searching for Chicago real estate, 880 already live in Illinois and 120 live outside the state. Of those 120 looking, about 11-12 are from Denver.

That’s intuitive. Denver is close and often more expensive for the Redfin demographic than Chicago

I am seeing different numbers from those that you quote. Like LA to Dallas as 4.1 which seems reasonable.
At any rate, I can see Chicago as a top destination for Denver. But that the presumed number of relocations to Chicago would be greater than the next largest destinations of LA, Phoenix, Seattle, Dallas, Houston, and Miami combined seems off to me. But I have no alternative data so will leave it at that.

[Randomguy34]

Huh, I remember 2 weeks ago in the General Development thread we were discussing anecdotes of more Florida people moving here. Looks like we now have some evidence of how popular Chicago is to Florida residents.

Also, since the 2020 census' estimates for Illinois were way off (and likely Chicago's), how much faith should we place in the ACS survey's upcoming estimates? Will this year's release be calibrated off of the old 2020 data, or use the corrected estimates?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Huh, I remember 2 weeks ago in the General Development thread we were discussing anecdotes of more Florida people moving here. Looks like we now have some evidence of how popular Chicago is to Florida residents.

Also, since the 2020 census' estimates for Illinois were way off (and likely Chicago's), how much faith should we place in the ACS survey's upcoming estimates? Will this year's release be calibrated off of the old 2020 data, or use the corrected estimates?

It will for sure be interesting to see but I think ACS should always be taken with a grain of salt. They may get some of the general trends right like education, income, etc but I'll be interesting to see upcoming how some of the other data is. I think that the migration data for counties/states is releasing in August via 2020 ACS. It's also possible that ACS is getting some of the more solidly middle/upper middle/upper class neighborhoods pretty correct while they're getting the others like lower middle class or lower class areas not very correct.

The rise of the remote worker is definitely interesting. I found this vlogger on YouTube with like 900K subscribers and she is traveling around, staying in a few cities for a month or so at a time. Then she'll pick one to move to - I think she's from Seattle? Anyway Chicago sounds like it's near the top of her list but I think she represents a portion of workers who are moving around. I've been wondering lately if all the out of region license plates I've been seeing are people who actually moved here vs. remote workers who are going to work here for 3 months and then move onto the next city. But something like Redfin search data is interesting. Doesn't mean they move to every place they search, but I think someone who is looking continually at purchase prices in other places is probably at least somewhat serious about moving to somewhere and for longer than just a few months.

Also the Florida thing is interesting. Have an employee who lives in the burbs and said a few of his family friends/doctors moved to Florida during the pandemic not because "Fuck Illinois/Chicago!" but for some other reasons. Those reasons are kind of gone now, so he was thinking that some might end up moving back to the Chicago region soon.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Also the Florida thing is interesting. Have an employee who lives in the burbs and said a few of his family friends/doctors moved to Florida during the pandemic not because "Fuck Illinois/Chicago!" but for some other reasons. Those reasons are kind of gone now, so he was thinking that some might end up moving back to the Chicago region soon.

I think the West coast of Florida has always had strong ties to the Midwest.

I-95 is out of the question unless you are a masochist.

So the options to drive North were to take I-75 and shimmy over onto I-65 to avoid the Appalachians. Later on, the flight routes imitate this driving pattern. There are also quite a few companies with branches between Chicago/Milwaukee and Western FL.


If you are a middle-class young person in Florida with actual career ambitions and no family in the North, there are typically two paths open.

1 — Go to college in the North. Ivies and the Northeast universities in general are expensive and hard to get in. Midwest state colleges have good prospects and are a lot more manageable for Floridians who do not have Northeast incomes.

2 — Attend college in Orlando/Gainesvilles/Jacksonville, move to Tampa for a first job, then transfer North, often to Chicago. (Miami is an employment wasteland for people just out of college.)


For retirees, Summer in Florida is absolutely brutal. If the retiree has money, they will spend money for a second home in an area with nice Summers.

[marothisu]

You are reading TOO much into it. It just means there's POTENTIAL demand from X to Y city. It's just searches and doesn't represent people who actually moved. This is merely one subset of the overall picture. There's more than just Redfin first of all. Second of all, you will have many people who aren't even interested in owning anytime soon and therefore aren't going to be looking on Redfin anyway.

The 18.7% one you showed is in and of itself for that area. An 18.7% for Denver is probably smaller than a 3% for NYC area. Did you know that Chicago is 100 miles closer to Denver than LA is? I talked with a coworker who actually grew up in Denver about this. She wasn't surprised that Chicago was #1 as she said going back many years there Chicago was always one of the big places to go for people from there when they wanted to get out of CO.

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by marothisu

You are reading TOO much into it. It just means there's POTENTIAL demand from X to Y city. It's just searches and doesn't represent people who actually moved. This is merely one subset of the overall picture. There's more than just Redfin first of all. Second of all, you will have many people who aren't even interested in owning anytime soon and therefore aren't going to be looking on Redfin anyway.

The 18.7% one you showed is in and of itself for that area. An 18.7% for Denver is probably smaller than a 3% for NYC area. Did you know that Chicago is 100 miles closer to Denver than LA is? I talked with a coworker who actually grew up in Denver about this. She wasn't surprised that Chicago was #1 as she said going back many years there Chicago was always one of the big places to go for people from there when they wanted to get out of CO.

Well, that is the point. The only reason to consider this interesting is that is meaningful in talking about relocations. But it isn't difficult to see it being suspect. Is Chicago a major location for people for Denver - probably. Is it necessarily as high as indicated. Quite possibly not. I don't see why this is such a big deal to draw out so is my final comment on it

[Chisouthside]

Definitely anecdotal evidence, but I've recently met 2 people from Miami that recently moved here for their career. Also met a uber driver from Miami who told he he moved here because as a service worker you make more money here. A close friend of mine is also from Miami and for the creative field she's in the work prospects are much higher here than in Miami. And also know of another person who is moving here also because of career prospects but also because they like the city.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

Definitely anecdotal evidence, but I've recently met 2 people from Miami that recently moved here for their career. Also met a uber driver from Miami who told he he moved here because as a service worker you make more money here. A close friend of mine is also from Miami and for the creative field she's in the work prospects are much higher here than in Miami. And also know of another person who is moving here also because of career prospects but also because they like the city.

I know a few others who made the move but 5 years ago . They thought Miami and a few of the burbs they lived in before were too small. Wanted more of a big city thing.

The money aspect makes sense. Miami is actually among the worst places for percentage of house poor people. Actually not just Miami but most of Florida is bad. I think of the major areas maybe only Jacksonville is OK. I have a friend who lived in Chicago for 20+ years and got tired of it so moved to Miami in 2020. He likes it there now but said he has less money left over after housing, transportation, and food than he did in Chicago.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by VKChaz

Well, that is the point. The only reason to consider this interesting is that is meaningful in talking about relocations. But it isn't difficult to see it being suspect. Is Chicago a major location for people for Denver - probably. Is it necessarily as high as indicated. Quite possibly not. I don't see why this is such a big deal to draw out so is my final comment on it

It's not "suspect". That word is reserved for situations where some shady things are at play. This is Redfin posting their search data. There's literally nothing suspect about it.

It's interesting because you can see the trends at the time of which areas of the country are considering moving to various places. 3 years ago the #1 searched from place for Chicago was NYC. Today it's Denver. To me, these trends are interesting as to why, for example, Chicago is semi recently popular with people from various parts of Florida to move to.

[thegoatman]

I heard Supreme (the fashion brand) is opening a store in Wicker Park, is that true?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

I heard Supreme (the fashion brand) is opening a store in Wicker Park, is that true?

Yes. A building permit was issued recently for them at 1438 N Milwaukee across from the Taco Bell Cantina.

[thegoatman]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Yes. A building permit was issued recently for them at 1438 N Milwaukee across from the Taco Bell Cantina.

link? I don't see anything about it online

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by thegoatman

link? I don't see anything about it online

That's because most news agencies are slow to this shit. I've posted stuff on here and other sites before that takes the news literally 2-3+ months to even pick up on and write about.

https://data.cityofchicago.org/Build...ydr8-5enu/data

Building permit ID 3253889 from 6/14. Look at the owner of the permit (under contact 5) - "CHAPTER 4 CORP. D/B/A SUPREME, LLC" out of NYC.

"SELF CERT CBRC 2019: INTERIOR BUILD-OUT OF GROUND FLOOR RETAIL SPACE TO INCLUDE DEMO NEW PARTITIONS, MECHANICAL, ELECTRICAL AND PLUMBING WORK AS PER PLANS. STRUCTURAL PEER REVIEW INCLUDED. M - MERCANTILE. CONSTRUCTION TYPE III-B"

Here's links showing that Chapter 4 Corp is actually Supreme:
https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/0671559D:US
https://trademarks.justia.com/owners...-corp-2296670/
https://opencorporates.com/companies/us_ny/5454957

etc

[thegoatman]

Originally Posted by marothisu

That's because most news agencies are slow to this shit. I've posted stuff on here and other sites before that takes the news literally 2-3+ months to even pick up on and write about.

https://data.cityofchicago.org/Build...ydr8-5enu/data

Building permit ID 3253889 from 6/14. Look at the owner of the permit (under contact 5) - "CHAPTER 4 CORP. D/B/A SUPREME, LLC" out of NYC.

"SELF CERT CBRC 2019: INTERIOR BUILD-OUT OF GROUND FLOOR RETAIL SPACE TO INCLUDE DEMO NEW PARTITIONS, MECHANICAL, ELECTRICAL AND PLUMBING WORK AS PER PLANS. STRUCTURAL PEER REVIEW INCLUDED. M - MERCANTILE. CONSTRUCTION TYPE III-B"

Here's links showing that Chapter 4 Corp is actually Supreme:
https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/0671559D:US
https://trademarks.justia.com/owners...-corp-2296670/
https://opencorporates.com/companies/us_ny/5454957

etc

Wow, today they officially announced it. Marothisu, you sir are legit!

[Mulan]

Supertalls on Chicago Yimby:

https://forum.newyorkyimby.com/t/chi...8-floors/21062



https://forum.newyorkyimby.com/t/chi...-central/18415

[left of center]

Originally Posted by DCReid

If the Bears move to Arlington Heights, I wonder what would happen to the stadium? Would they tear it down for new development?

The stadium isn't going anywhere. Soldier Field is historic (despite the UFO bowl they put into it in the early 2000s) and the entire city would be pretty upset at anyone proposing it get torn down. Besides, the Bears only played 8 games a year at Soldier. The stadium has many, many other events all year long, from concerts to hosting the MLS Chicago Fire.

The only thing to replace the stadium would be parkland anyway, since private development along the lakefront (east of Lake Shore Drive) is prohibited by the Lakefront Protection Ordinance. You would have an almost impossible legal hill to climb trying to get anything else built there. Just ask George Lucas.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by left of center

The stadium isn't going anywhere. Soldier Field is historic (despite the UFO bowl they put into it in the early 2000s) and the entire city would be pretty upset at anyone proposing it get torn down. Besides, the Bears only played 8 games a year at Soldier. The stadium has many, many other events all year long, from concerts to hosting the MLS Chicago Fire.

The only thing to replace the stadium would be parkland anyway, since private development along the lakefront (east of Lake Shore Drive) is prohibited by the Lakefront Protection Ordinance. You would have an almost impossible legal hill to climb trying to get anything else built there. Just ask George Lucas.

I recall that it was delisted as historic because of the renovation. Per Wiki, "On September 23, 2004, as a result of the renovation, a 10-member federal advisory committee unanimously recommended that Soldier Field be delisted as a National Historic Landmark.[37][38] The recommendation to delist was prepared by Carol Ahlgren, an architectural historian at the National Park Service's Midwest Regional Office in Omaha, Nebraska, who was quoted in Preservation Online stating, "if we had let this stand, I believe it would have lowered the standard of National Historic Landmarks throughout the country [...] If we want to keep the integrity of the program, let alone the landmarks, we really had no other recourse." The stadium lost the landmark designation on February 17, 2006..."

Not that it will make much difference given the legal issue you commented on.