CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[MayorOfChicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Well this is interesting. Although preliminary data for June 2019, the number of employed persons for the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights Metropolitan Division jumped up over 71,000 persons in 1 month - from May to June. It is the highest number of employed persons in this Metropolitan Division of any month going back to January 1994 (data doesn't go back any further).

The civilian labor force in this same Metropolitan Division jumped up nearly 100,000 people in just a month from May to June as well That's a big jump and represents the 3rd highest civilian labor force population since August 2016 (only June and July 2017 were higher).


Talking about non-farm employees, the total number of employed persons for that jumped up just over 50,000 people in a month. This is the highest of any months since at least January 1990 (as far back as the data goes). The big changes came in the Business/Professional Services, Finance, Leisure/Hospitality, Trade/Transportation/Utilities, and Construction industries. This increase of employment in non farm was about the same as the NYC-Jersey City Metropolitan Division in total jobs, but over double the percent change. It was also much more than the Los Angeles-Long Beach Metropolitan Division and surprisingly more than the main MDs for Houston, Dallas, Austin, DC, Seattle, Boston, Miami (which had a decrease), Atlanta, etc

I know it's just the change from one month to another, but it's more than I've seen in a long time and kind of surprising..

Where are you finding those numbers? I still can only find May.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by MayorOfChicago

Where are you finding those numbers? I still can only find May.

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/il_chicago_md.htm

So, the state totals get released before city/msa every month. However, when the state numbers are released, they also release various MDs within many MSAs for the new month. Chicago is one where they release every person in labor force. There's some other mds which only get non farm released.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by marothisu

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/il_chicago_md.htm

So, the state totals get released before city/msa every month. However, when the state numbers are released, they also release various MDs within many MSAs for the new month. Chicago is one where they release every person in labor force. There's some other mds which only get non farm released.

Wow, I haven't been looking at the BLS lately. Those are some nice increases! The non farm payroll growth is very impressive and much better indicator of the job market than unemployment rates.

[bnk]

Confirmed


https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg...icks-high-gear

July 25, 2019 01:50 PM |updated 20 minutes ago



Illinois' job engine suddenly kicks into high gear



The state gained nearly 100,000 new non-farm jobs in the past year, according to new data. Now, will a population turn-around follow?




Greg Hinz  


Job opportunities are on the increase around Chicago and in Illinois.


Don’t look now, boo birds, but Illinois’ long-idling jobs engine finally has kicked into high gear.

Extending a trend that’s been developing for several months, the Illinois Department of Employment Security reported today that the state has gained nearly 100,000 non-farm jobs in the past 12 months. That’s the biggest pop since July 2015, when a year-to-year increase of 105,300 was recorded. Figures shortly before that were much smaller and have dropped off since then until now.

...the figures could have major implications. Chief among them is that if the state is gaining lots of jobs, it finally may be gaining population, too, instead of losing it.

The specific figures come from household surveys conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and IDES. They show that between June 2018 and this June, total non-farm employment in the state increased 94,700, to 6.266 million, a rise of about 1.5 percent.



As usual, the increase was concentrated in the Chicago area, with the Chicago/Naperville/Arlington Heights area adding 63,500 jobs (up 1.8 percent), Elgin 5,700 and Lake County Illinois/Kenosha County Wisconsin 11,200.

But unusually, downstate finally is joining in, with the Carbondale, Champaign-Urbana, Quad Cities, Peoria and Springfield metros each gaining at least 1,000 jobs year to year.






The recovery appears to be fairly broad-based, with educational and health services, leisure/hospitality and professional/business services all showing healthy gains.

...



However, given that Pritzker has been in office just half a year, another explanation may make more sense. As officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago repeatedly have pointed out, Illinois’ economy is structured in such a way that it lags national downturns but also recovers more slowly after a dip.

[marothisu]

^ What they fail to mention is that of those 100k jobs, 70% were added only from May to June. Their analysis is a bit lacking.

[the urban politician]

^ So 70k jobs were added in 2 months?

Wouldn't that be considered earth-shattering?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ So 70k jobs were added in 2 months?

Wouldn't that be considered earth-shattering?

Pretty much. Just look at the change in non-farm jobs between January 2019 and June 2019:

Total Non-Farm Employment, Change from January 2019 to June 2019
* NYC MSA: +350,900 jobs
* Chicago MSA: +183,800 jobs
* Los Angeles MSA: +114,300 jobs
* Boston MSA: +114,100 jobs
* Dallas MSA: +109,400 jobs
* Houston MSA: +88,700 jobs
* Washington DC MSA: +85,600 jobs
* Philadelphia MSA: +75,400 jobs
* Seattle MSA: +65,800 jobs
* Minneapolis MSA: +63,200 jobs
* San Francisco MSA: +63,000 jobs
* Detroit MSA: +61,100 jobs
* Atlanta MSA: +54,700 jobs
* Denver MSA: +51,900 jobs
* St. Louis MSA: +45,700 jobs
* Kansas City MSA: +39,600 jobs
* Cincinnati MSA: +39,400 jobs
* San Diego MSA: +37,200 jobs
* Cleveland MSA: +36,700 jobs
* Charlotte MSA: +35,000 jobs
* Baltimore MSA: +34,600 jobs
* Indianapolis MSA: +33,700 jobs
* San Jose MSA: +33,400 jobs
* Austin, TX MSA: +31,800 jobs
* Pittsburgh MSA: +30,800 jobs
* Milwaukee MSA: +26,900 jobs
* Portland MSA: +25,100 jobs
* Richmond, VA MSA: +21,800 jobs
* Columbus, OH MSA: +20,900 jobs
* Louisville MSA: +19,800 jobs
* Oklahoma City MSA: +19,800 jobs
* San Antonio MSA: +19,400 jobs
* Raleigh, NC MSA: +19,000 jobs
* Salt Lake City MSA: +16,800 jobs
* Tampa MSA: +16,700
* Sacramento MSA: +14,800 jobs
* Jacksonville MSA: +14,600 jobs
* Memphis MSA: +12,500 jobs
* Orlando MSA: +12,300 jobs
* Nashville MSA: +6400 jobs
* Las Vegas MSA: +5700 jobs
* Miami MSA: -4000 jobs
* Phoenix MSA: -4900 jobs

Just to put this into perspective - Chicago gained more non-farm jobs as the Los Angeles and San Francisco MSAs (not counting San Jose) combined..and almost as many non farm jobs as Houston and Dallas metro areas combined.

Total Non-Farm Employment, Percent Change from January 2019 to June 2019
* Boston MSA: 4.18%
* Chicago MSA: 3.92%
* Kansas City MSA: 3.64%
* New York City MSA: 3.61%
* Cincinnati MSA: 3.58%
* Denver MSA: 3.48%
* Cleveland MSA: 3.48%
* St. Louis MSA: 3.32%
* Richmond, VA MSA: 3.25%
* Seattle MSA: 3.2%
* Indianapolis MSA: 3.2%
* Minneapolis MSA: 3.19%
* Milwaukee MSA: 3.11%
* Oklahoma City MSA: 3.1%
* Detroit MSA: 3.04%
* Raleigh, NC MSA: 3.02%
* Louisville MSA: 2.99%
* Austin MSA: 2.98%
* San Jose MSA: 2.96%
* Dallas MSA: 2.95%
* Charlotte MSA: 2.9%
* Houston MSA: 2.87%
* Pittsburgh MSA: 2.63%
* Washington DC MSA: 2.61%
* Philadelphia MSA: 2.59%
* San Francisco MSA: 2.57%
* San Diego MSA: 2.51%
* Salt Lake City MSA: 2.3%
* Portland MSA: 2.09%
* Jacksonville MSA: 2.07%
* Atlanta MSA: 1.96%
* Memphis MSA: 1.93%
* Columbus, OH MSA: 1.91%
* Los Angeles MSA: 1.86%
* San Antonio MSA: 1.83%
* Sacramento MSA: 1.47%
* Tampa MSA: 1.24%
* Orlando MSA: 0.93%
* Nashville MSA: 0.63%
* Las Vegas MSA: 0.56%
* Miami MSA: -0.15%
* Phoenix MSA: -0.23%


Source: https://www.bls.gov/regions/home.htm

[chicubs111]

[QUOTE=marothisu;8642041]Pretty much. Just look at the change in non-farm jobs between January 2019 and June 2019:

So considering this ridiculousness job growth that we have seen in the last few months continues there should be some serious headlines in the next 4 months or so in regards to Illinois and Chicago massive job creation boom...record breaking i would assume (for our area at least)

[maru2501]

wow

[Vlajos]

With the commercial real estate market and apartment market on fire as they are, it makes sense the job growth is so strong.

[the urban politician]

Maybe that's why it's so hard to get any help with anything around the house. Everybody is so gainfully employed

[Kenmore]

retail / grocery / restaurants in the city have been struggling to find workers for a while now, good sign we're close to full employment (at least as that term is commonly used)

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by Kenmore

retail / grocery / restaurants in the city have been struggling to find workers for a while now, good sign we're close to full employment (at least as that term is commonly used)

Frankly, I'm getting more than a bit weary of reading stuff like this, Kenmore. I know it's not you, necessarily, but given my experience with the job market over the last few years, I've come to the conclusion that retail establishments are perfectly happy with a revolving door of applicants/hires/fires/available positions. Employers still can't manage to be honest to their employees, still can't manage to take care of employees, and are more than willing to have a continually cycling employee pool where people come and go seemingly every week. It's pathetic, truly. When an employee wants more hours, was promised full-time, only to see it not happening, the employer couldn't care less and just figures they can hire someone else immediately who's willing to accept their incompetence.

I don't consider continually open positions to be truly open. I consider them to be a conveyor belt of employees who do their best at their jobs, only to be given the boot when they attempt to have employers abide by their stated promises.

Honestly, employers (and I mean ALL employers, not just retail/restaurants/ service industry) need to learn that in order to keep employees happy and giving their all, they need to actually treat them with some respect and not just consider them another cog in the corporate machine.

Sorry for my rant, but it really chafes me when I constantly read about this supposedly amazing job market where employers can't find enough employees when I know this is completely false. What employers can't find are employees that they can give the runaround to and never make good on their stated promises upon hiring.

Just my $.02.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[Kenmore]

Originally Posted by glowrock

Frankly, I'm getting more than a bit weary of reading stuff like this, Kenmore. I know it's not you, necessarily, but given my experience with the job market over the last few years, I've come to the conclusion that retail establishments are perfectly happy with a revolving door of applicants/hires/fires/available positions. Employers still can't manage to be honest to their employees, still can't manage to take care of employees, and are more than willing to have a continually cycling employee pool where people come and go seemingly every week. It's pathetic, truly. When an employee wants more hours, was promised full-time, only to see it not happening, the employer couldn't care less and just figures they can hire someone else immediately who's willing to accept their incompetence.

I don't consider continually open positions to be truly open. I consider them to be a conveyor belt of employees who do their best at their jobs, only to be given the boot when they attempt to have employers abide by their stated promises.

Honestly, employers (and I mean ALL employers, not just retail/restaurants/ service industry) need to learn that in order to keep employees happy and giving their all, they need to actually treat them with some respect and not just consider them another cog in the corporate machine.

Sorry for my rant, but it really chafes me when I constantly read about this supposedly amazing job market where employers can't find enough employees when I know this is completely false. What employers can't find are employees that they can give the runaround to and never make good on their stated promises upon hiring.

Just my $.02.

Aaron (Glowrock)

no, you're completely right

[marothisu]

High level breakdown of change in jobs from January to June for the metro area

* Leisure and Hospitality: +58,800 jobs
* Professional and Business Services: +43,100 jobs
* Construction: +28,000 jobs
* Government: +21,000 jobs
* Education and Health Services: +8900 jobs
* Manufacturing: +6900 jobs
* Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: +6900 jobs
* Financial Activities: +5600 jobs
* Other Services: +4900 jobs
* Mining and Lodging: +300 jobs
* Information: -600 jobs

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Pretty much. Just look at the change in non-farm jobs between January 2019 and June 2019:


Source: https://www.bls.gov/regions/home.htm

This is obviously great news. And obviously there's a real, big bump. But 35,000 jobs a month is 420,000 jobs a year, which equates to about a million residents. If we assumed those folks move here, which they would need to if this rate of job creation continued.

This sets off a few quiet alarms for me. I can see adding jobs at that rate if we'd just come out of a steep recession or if there was an error in seasonal adjustment. I could be wrong, but I'd bet on that being revised down a bit to some other very-good-but-not-THAT-good number, since the rate seems literally in-credible.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by marothisu

* San Antonio MSA: 1.83%
* Sacramento MSA: 1.47%
* Tampa MSA: 1.24%
* Orlando MSA: 0.93%
* Nashville MSA: 0.63%
* Las Vegas MSA: 0.56%
* Miami MSA: -0.15%
* Phoenix MSA: -0.23%

Source: https://www.bls.gov/regions/home.htm

Anyone know what's going on in Phoenix and Miami? Florida in general?

[Handro]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

This is obviously great news. And obviously there's a real, big bump. But 35,000 jobs a month is 420,000 jobs a year, which equates to about a million residents. If we assumed those folks move here, which they would need to if this rate of job creation continued.

This sets off a few quiet alarms for me. I can see adding jobs at that rate if we'd just come out of a steep recession or if there was an error in seasonal adjustment. I could be wrong, but I'd bet on that being revised down a bit to some other very-good-but-not-THAT-good number, since the rate seems literally in-credible.

I don't have any corroborating information but:

As officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago repeatedly have pointed out, Illinois’ economy is structured in such a way that it lags national downturns but also recovers more slowly after a dip.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg...icks-high-gear

So maybe this is just a result of a slow recorvery after 2009/10?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Handro

I don't have any corroborating information but:



https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg...icks-high-gear

So maybe this is just a result of a slow recorvery after 2009/10?

That's what I've thought and have alluded to it in different ways. The recovery of the recession was felt further on than some other places. The data of changes in income and how strong it's been shows this too.

[Baronvonellis]

Originally Posted by glowrock

Frankly, I'm getting more than a bit weary of reading stuff like this, Kenmore. I know it's not you, necessarily, but given my experience with the job market over the last few years, I've come to the conclusion that retail establishments are perfectly happy with a revolving door of applicants/hires/fires/available positions. Employers still can't manage to be honest to their employees, still can't manage to take care of employees, and are more than willing to have a continually cycling employee pool where people come and go seemingly every week. It's pathetic, truly. When an employee wants more hours, was promised full-time, only to see it not happening, the employer couldn't care less and just figures they can hire someone else immediately who's willing to accept their incompetence.

I don't consider continually open positions to be truly open. I consider them to be a conveyor belt of employees who do their best at their jobs, only to be given the boot when they attempt to have employers abide by their stated promises.

Honestly, employers (and I mean ALL employers, not just retail/restaurants/ service industry) need to learn that in order to keep employees happy and giving their all, they need to actually treat them with some respect and not just consider them another cog in the corporate machine.

Sorry for my rant, but it really chafes me when I constantly read about this supposedly amazing job market where employers can't find enough employees when I know this is completely false. What employers can't find are employees that they can give the runaround to and never make good on their stated promises upon hiring.

Just my $.02.

Aaron (Glowrock)

Yea, I agree. The IT techs I work with at a Fortune 500 company are constantly quitting every few weeks, and then they hire new people. Management has draconian policies that they are unwilling to change to make things more efficient and easier on the techs, and management constantly complains we don't accomplish enough while shackling us with dumb handicaps. I'm making 9% less than I did in 2016 and we got $0 bonus or raise this year, because the management constantly complains yet they do nothing to help out the techs do our jobs better. They are just happy to have a revolving door of IT workers as well, it's not only restaurants. I've asked management to give me some opportunities to help out with more advanced projects but wont let me do anything but basic stuff, I'm just a cog to them doing one little task, and as long as I do it ok they don't care about my career at all.