The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Germany is going to be interesting to watch over the next few days. Low gas volumes, low temperatures and no wind.

Power futures in Germany and France are spiking. Think I saw €315/MWh in France on Bloomberg last night.

This is why energy systems need to be sustainable AND resilient. Three things need to change to truly move past fossil fuels:

• Energy storage needs to become more efficient in terms of physical space and energy loss
• Energy grids need to be upgraded to make transmitting power from thousands of kms away feasible
• We need to get over our fear of nuclear power generation

[Truenorth00]

Nuclear isn't getting built because it's expensive. Just look at what Ontario is spending on refurbishing reactors. Next, just look at the cost overruns on all the new reactors being built globally. And unlike so much of the world we don't have a shortage of coast line for offshore wind or rooftops and land for solar.

The reality is that we have all the tech we need between wind, solar and especially hydro in this country, to provide most of our energy needs, including for mobility and heating. Just gonna have to get building. Both on generation and upgrades to the grid.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

This is why energy systems need to be sustainable AND resilient. Three things need to change to truly move past fossil fuels:

• Energy storage needs to become more efficient in terms of physical space and energy loss
• Energy grids need to be upgraded to make transmitting power from thousands of kms away feasible
• We need to get over our fear of nuclear power generation

Lots of good points, but many challenges remain, mostly on the policy/regulation side. I'm in AB so most of my thoughts/observations will refer to AB or BC as that's what I know.

Energy Storage - BES systems aren't efficient or cost effective yet and won't be for some time. If they could be treated as a regulated asset that would change the conversation substantially. The use cases are pretty thin due to the limited capacity the current systems offer. I'm majorly concerned by the waste and lack of recycling available for used batteries. I do think that challenge sorts itself out with time, but could make a big mess in the meantime.

Transmission Grids - This works well intra-provincially, it's inter-provincially that's the problem. The feds need to step in and make the provinces play nice. There are also treaty implications with the US that would factor into moving power between AB/BC beyond what already exists. Ie, BC couldn't limit power flows into the Pac NW without renegotiating the treaty.

Nukes - One should be built at Ft. Mac ASAP. It's borderline criminal there isn't one up there. Low carbon O&G extraction? Where do I sign up?

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Nuclear isn't getting built because it's expensive. Just look at what Ontario is spending on refurbishing reactors. Next, just look at the cost overruns on all the new reactors being built globally. And unlike so much of the world we don't have a shortage of coast line for offshore wind or rooftops and land for solar.

The reality is that we have all the tech we need between wind, solar and especially hydro in this country, to provide most of our energy needs, including for mobility and heating. Just gonna have to get building. Both on generation and upgrades to the grid.

When I worked on Darlington 1&2 the price was creeping over a billion. I think it topped out at 12 Billion when it was done. I can't see those numbers being used to build a generating station now. But there is some new tech that allows for micro NGS. I could see it in McMurray. And there is a big boom about to happen there soon for reducing the cost and GHG foot print. We are seeing preliminary plans for reduction projects. Mostly on the SAGD plants but also at the open pit sites.

We will see more ways to reduce energy consumption in Alberta over the next couple of years. Hell it should keep me busy for at least 3 years.

Also heard this week that the YVR Geothermal project is back on.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The reality is that we have all the tech we need between wind, solar and especially hydro in this country, to provide most of our energy needs, including for mobility and heating. Just gonna have to get building. Both on generation and upgrades to the grid.

At least wind and solar are among the quickest to construct. If we were reliant on Nuclear (I wish it was easier and cheaper) we don't have the luxury of those timelines.

[O-tacular]

Because Joe Rogaine doesn't do enough damage with his Covid disinformation now he's tapping alt right self help guru Jordan Peterson to lie about Climate Change:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/27/us/jo...ntl/index.html

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Airboy

Also heard this week that the YVR Geothermal project is back on.

I've been watching this with more than a passing curiosity. It's been on again, off again for the last several years.

Would be really nice to see it put into service so they can fully evaluate the economics and any operational/reliability concerns.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Because Joe Rogaine doesn't do enough damage with his Covid disinformation now he's tapping alt right self help guru Jordan Peterson to lie about Climate Change:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/27/us/jo...ntl/index.html

Ill be honest; this is a giant "meh."

From the CNN link;

Peterson's remarks show a general misunderstanding of how scientific modeling works. Scientists use models, or simulations, to project particular aspects of climate change, such as the rise in global temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and the likelihood of drought.

Right. So they do.

We are overshooting every model ever made. 1.5degrees is a joke. 2 degrees is baked in, how close 3degrees is the real conversation.

Which puts us squarely in a place where we are relying on a technocratic hailmary to solve this issue going forward.

Beating around the bush with electric cars and stern words is laughable.

So while the media is going to pounce on Rogan and Peterson, and maybe they should, the reality is our leaders, our governments, us, everything, really the actions taken can be summed up as; we don't care.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Because Joe Rogaine doesn't do enough damage with his Covid disinformation now he's tapping alt right self help guru Jordan Peterson to lie about Climate Change:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/27/us/jo...ntl/index.html

fucking numbskulls. Two narcissistic media whores giving a completely bullshit take on something they have no qualifications or expertise.

I am sure that I will be attacked for voicing this, rather than the scorn being directed at the perpetrators.

[Peggerino]

Originally Posted by rofina

Ill be honest; this is a giant "meh."

So while the media is going to pounce on Rogan and Peterson, and maybe they should, the reality is our leaders, our governments, us, everything, really the actions taken can be summed up as; we don't care.

That's partially because a good chunk of the population doesn't even believe in climate change due to misinformation from people like Joe Rogan and Peterson. If we didn't have that chunk of the electorate, making the kind of changes we need would be much more politically feasible.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Peggerino

That's partially because a good chunk of the population doesn't even believe in climate change due to misinformation from people like Joe Rogan and Peterson. If we didn't have that chunk of the electorate, making the kind of changes we need would be much more politically feasible.

There has been plenty of times over the last couple decades where the "right" parties had total control of Western democracies, and I would say the work that got done was beating around the bush at best.

I'm open to being wrong, but I think the collective "we" doesn't care as much as it pretends to. Especially if it means making any type of collective lifestyle sacrifice, however menial.

[davidivivid]

Renewable energy company Boralex announced today that it plans to greatly expand, in phases, its Seigneurie de Beaupré wind farm near Quebec City, already the biggest in Canada with an installed capacity of 364MW. The plan seeks to add another 240 wind turbines which will produce an additional 1200 MW of power. When completed, the wind farm will produce as much power as La Romaine, Quebec's newest hydroelectric complex, which has a operational capacity of 1550 MW.

Interesting fact: the project is situated on the largest private property in Canada, a 1600 km2 territory stretching from Quebec City to Baie St-Paul owned by the Séminaire de Québec. It was bought between 1664 and 1688 by François de Laval, Nouvelle France's first bishop and the Seminary's founder, with its personnal fortune. He gave it to the Seminary upon his death.

Boralex et Énergir préparent un mégaprojet éolien de 1200 MW sur les terres du Séminaire, situées entre Québec et Baie-Saint-Paul. Les deux entreprises misent sur la soif énergétique du Québec, qui veut décarboner son économie.

La Seigneurie de Beaupré, un immense terrain privé entre Québec et Baie-Saint-Paul (voir onglet « Le plus grand terrain privé du Canada »), est déjà le plus imposant parc éolien du pays avec ses 164 éoliennes et sa production de 364 MW. Et Boralex souhaite ajouter, en plusieurs phases, jusqu’à 240 éoliennes qui généreront suffisamment d’électricité pour alimenter plus de 216 000 résidences. Au total, la puissance installée rivaliserait avec celle du complexe de la Romaine et permettrait à Boralex de doubler sa production d’énergie au Canada.

Mais pour que le projet se réalise, il faut un acheteur. Ça tombe bien : Hydro-Québec a soif. Des appels d’offres sont déjà en cours, et la société d’État prédit une hausse considérable de la demande en énergie dans les prochaines années.

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2...r-l-eolien.php

[MonctonRad]

I've seen this photo before, but it just came up on local media again:



It shows the Ocean Limited passing over the Tantramar Marsh between Sackville NS and Amherst NS during a storm driven king tide a number of years ago.

You can see the ocean literally lapping on the railroad ties.

What makes this alarming is that the railway embankment sits on top of the dike system keeping the Marsh from being inundated. The Trans Canada Highway lies immediately inland of the railway embankment and is at a lower level than the embankment.

The railway embankment came within a whisker of being overtopped during that storm event, and if the dyke system had failed, then the CNR mainline and the TCH to NS (and NL) would have been inundated. Billions of dollars of commerce would have been at risk.

Sea level rise is staring us in the face. This photo gives me the willys.

The Federal and (relevant) provincial governments have just completed a study on this with several scenarios to bolster the dykes, but the cost will be $250-300M. There is no way around it. The work has to be done, but the fix will take 10-12 years or so.

We just have to pray that we don't have another Saxby Gale in the meantime..........

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

I've been watching this with more than a passing curiosity. It's been on again, off again for the last several years.

Would be really nice to see it put into service so they can fully evaluate the economics and any operational/reliability concerns.

An interesting podcast on geothermal progress.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3pr...TMSGwDLI9kJLuw

[Nashe]

I know the current quasi-plan is to update/raise the existing dikes.
I wonder what it would take to instead focus on rebuilding the road itself? The second would be more expensive per unit of linear length, but I wonder if it would make up for that by being shorter overall? I doubt the existing dikes are as straight as the highway.... In effect, convert the highway and rail to a pre-emptive causeway. Seems like dike mods would only be a bandaid anyway. *shrug*

[DoubleK]

Suncor selling off its wind and solar generation assets to focus on hydrogen and renewable fuels.

I really thought these were complementary businesses. Surprised to see they are selling them outright vs spinning them off into a subsidiary like TransAlta did.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Suncor selling off its wind and solar generation assets to focus on hydrogen and renewable fuels.

I really thought these were complementary businesses. Surprised to see they are selling them outright vs spinning them off into a subsidiary like TransAlta did.

They probably need capital to pay for their hydrogen dreams.

[DoubleK]

Suncor has plenty of cash.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Suncor has plenty of cash.

Can they pay out the dividends that shareholders want and still afford their hydrogen plans?

I think a big problem with oil cos doing renewable projects is that they don't seem to like the lower returns. There's plenty of shareholders who want to own oil stocks like owning tobacco stocks. Good steady dividends. Poor capital appreciation. Might as well cater to them than try to pass the ESG tests.

And right now is probably a great time to sell that division. Might not get the same price again.

[LightingGuy]

This data is fascinating:
https://ourworldindata.org/co2/count...a?country=~CAN

Appears that Canada's per capita CO2 emissions peaked in 2000 and has dropped by 33% since then. On a total annual emissions basis we peaked in 2007.

The interesting thing is where the drops occurred - recessions. Biggest drop was in 2007-2009 (fuel efficiency became more important, leading to much more widespread use of Turbo 4 cylinder engines) and 2020-2021 (COVID recession which led less commuting).

(There was also a sharp dropoff from 1979-1986 (energy crisis), although it did go up again after this.)

In today's era of high gas prices, I would only expect this downward trend to continue as EV tech matures and more people adopt it. We're likely looking at a similar curve for gas emissions as the coal one in a few years' time.